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中国粮食增产的贡献分解与路径分析
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中国粮食增产的贡献分解与路径分析
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王怡婷1, 文姝蓉1, 果文帅2, 钟钰1
作者信息
    1. 中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所, 北京 100081;
    2. 中国农业科学院研究生院, 北京 100081
Contribution decomposition and path analysis of China's grain production increase
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出版时间: 2024-08-28 doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.05.00460
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粮食安全是国家安全的重要基础。2012—2023年中国粮食产量增长13.59%,总体上单产提升对粮食增产的贡献高于面积。其中稻谷、小麦增产主要依靠单产提升,玉米、大豆增产主要依靠面积扩大;主产区和产销平衡区粮食增产多依靠单产提升,主销区则依靠面积扩大。当前,保障粮食安全仍面临稳面积和增单产的难题,一方面,城镇化加速挤占优质耕地,“非粮化”“非农化”趋势明显,且耕地后备资源开发潜力有限;另一方面,粮食单产增速逐渐放缓,尤其是玉米、大豆单产水平与美国、巴西等国家存在较大差距。未来应加快农业基础设施建设,提高旱涝保收能力;加强核心关键技术攻关,提升农业科技水平;走高质量城镇化道路,推动农业可持续发展;加快培育新型农业经营主体,完善服务技术体系;切实加强耕地保护利用,挖掘闲置耕地盐碱地。
粮食安全  /  稳面积  /  增单产
Food security is an important foundation for national security. From 2012 to 2023, China's grain output increased by 13.59%, and generally the contribution of per unit yield improvement to grain production increase was much higher than that of area. Among them, the increase of rice and wheat production mainly relied on the increase of per unit yield, while the increase of corn and soybean production mainly came from the expansion of arable land; the output increase mainly relied on the increase of per unit yield in the main production areas and the production-marketing balance areas, while it relied on the expansion of arable land in the main marketing areas. At present, China's food security is faced with the challenges of stabilizing the farmland area and increasing per unit yield. On the one hand, because of the accelerated occupation of quality cultivated land due to urbanization, there is an obvious trend of "non-grain production of cultivated land and non-agricultural transformation", and the potential for development of cultivated land reserves is limited; on the other hand, the growth rate of grain yield per unit has gradually slowed down; in particular, there is a big gap in the yield per unit of corn and soybean between China and other countries such as the United States and Brazil. In the future, the construction of agricultural infrastructure should be speeded up to ensure stable yields despite drought or excessive rain; the breakthroughs of core key technology research should be made to further improve the agricultural science and technology; quality urbanization should be pursued to promote the sustainable development of agriculture; the cultivation of new agricultural operators should be accelerated to optimize the service technology system; the protection and utilization of cultivated land should be further strengthened, and the idle arable land and saline alkaline soil should be put into use again.
food security  /  stabilizing area  /  increasing yield per unit area
王怡婷, 文姝蓉, 果文帅, 钟钰. 中国粮食增产的贡献分解与路径分析. 科技导报, 2024 , 42 (16) : 26 -39 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.05.00460
WANG Yiting, WEN Shurong, GUO Wenshuai, ZHONG Yu. Contribution decomposition and path analysis of China's grain production increase[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2024 , 42 (16) : 26 -39 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.05.00460
2024年第42卷第16期
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doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.05.00460
  • 接收时间:2023-11-20
  • 首发时间:2024-09-05
  • 出版时间:2024-08-28
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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-20
  • 修回日期:2024-06-19
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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