Article(id=1242138224555012947, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1242138198848118976, articleNumber=null, orderNo=15, doi=10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1584460800000, receivedDateStr=2020-03-18, revisedDate=1585152000000, revisedDateStr=2020-03-26, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1589178926887, onlineDateStr=2020-05-11, pubDate=1585324800000, pubDateStr=2020-03-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1589178926887, onlineIssueDateStr=2020-05-11, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1774078430543, creator=sys-migrate, updateTime=1774078430543, updator=sys-migrate, issue=Issue{id=1242138198848118976, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, year='2020', volume='38', issue='6', pageStart='1', pageEnd='152', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1585324800000', pubDateStr='2020-03-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=3, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1774078424415, creator='sys-migrate', updateTime=1774078424415, updator='sys-migrate', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=90, endPage=96, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1242138228199863141, articleId=1242138224555012947, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=EN, title=Dynamic model of COVID-19 transmission and assessment of control interventions based on causal analysis, columnId=1150494644690366681, journalTitle=Science & Technology Review, columnName=Papers, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=A modified SEIR model of single-population infectious disease (SEIRD) is proposed to investigate the transmission trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese Mainland, whose outbreak originated in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The SEIRD model preforms well in fitting training data and can be used to predict the future transmission trend. The counterfactual inference is applied to assess the control interventions based on SEIRD model. Using the quantitative analysis results, the effect on COVID-19 transmission can be assessed systematically under the adjustable control interventions, such as delaying the Wuhan Lockdown. Finally, the conclusions are summarized:the assessment approach combining modeling & simulation and causal inference is applicable in the bidirectional deduction study of decision-making and implementation in major public health emergencies (MPHE), which contributes to improve the social governance capabilities handling with MPHE of the governments in each level., authors=YOU Guangrong1 , YOU Hanlin1 , ZHAO Dezhi2 , LIAN Zhenyu1 , authorsList=YOU Guangrong, YOU Hanlin, ZHAO Dezhi, LIAN Zhenyu, authorCompany=1. Center for Assessment and Demonstration Research, Academy of Military Science, Beijing 100091, China;1 , 游翰霖1 , 赵得智2 , 廉振宇1 , authorsList=游光荣, 游翰霖, 赵得智, 廉振宇, authorCompany=1. 军事科学院评估论证研究中心, 北京 100091;
科技导报
| 研究论文 2020, 38(6): 90-96
新冠肺炎疫情传播模型及防控干预措施的因果分析评估
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游光荣1 , 游翰霖1 , 赵得智2 , 廉振宇1
作者信息
1. 军事科学院评估论证研究中心, 北京 100091;
Dynamic model of COVID-19 transmission and assessment of control interventions based on causal analysis
Affiliations
出版时间: 2020-03-28
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013
文章导航
利用修正后的单一群体传染病SEIR模型，对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情在国内的传播趋势进行建模，模型较好地拟合了已发生情况并预测了疫情发展；基于修正后的SEIR模型，开展反事实推理，定量评估了武汉推后采取防控干预措施对国内疫情带来的影响。结果表明：基于建模仿真和因果推断方法，可以对重大突发公共卫生事件的决策和执行进行模拟与反演，提高各级政府应对重大突发公共卫生事件的社会治理能力。
新冠肺炎
/
SEIR模型
/
因果分析
/
反事实推理
A modified SEIR model of single-population infectious disease (SEIRD) is proposed to investigate the transmission trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Chinese Mainland, whose outbreak originated in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The SEIRD model preforms well in fitting training data and can be used to predict the future transmission trend. The counterfactual inference is applied to assess the control interventions based on SEIRD model. Using the quantitative analysis results, the effect on COVID-19 transmission can be assessed systematically under the adjustable control interventions, such as delaying the Wuhan Lockdown. Finally, the conclusions are summarized:the assessment approach combining modeling & simulation and causal inference is applicable in the bidirectional deduction study of decision-making and implementation in major public health emergencies (MPHE), which contributes to improve the social governance capabilities handling with MPHE of the governments in each level.
COVID-19
/
SEIR models
/
causal analysis
/
counterfactual inference
游光荣, 游翰霖, 赵得智, 廉振宇.
新冠肺炎疫情传播模型及防控干预措施的因果分析评估.
科技导报,
2020
, 38
(6)
: 90
-96
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013
YOU Guangrong, YOU Hanlin, ZHAO Dezhi, LIAN Zhenyu.
Dynamic model of COVID-19 transmission and assessment of control interventions based on causal analysis[J].
Science & Technology Review ,
2020
, 38
(6)
: 90
-96
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013
2020年第38卷第6期
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文章信息
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013
接收时间：2020-03-18
首发时间：2020-05-11
出版时间：2020-03-28
收稿日期：2020-03-18
修回日期：2020-03-26
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/kjdb/CN/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2020.06.013
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科 属数 种数 占总种数比例 属 种数 占总种数比例 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78 小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39 红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87 小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26 光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39 红菇属 Russula 17 8.13 栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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