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科技导报
| 研究论文 2013, 31(33): 52-57
基于贝叶斯网络的核电厂安全系统可靠性分析
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顾健1 , 薛峻峰1 , 彭建平1 , 王志强1 , 宫海光2 , 佟立丽2
作者信息
1. 中核集团福建福清核电有限公司, 福建福清 350318;2. 上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院, 上海 200240
通讯作者:
佟立丽,博士,高级工程师,研究方向为核电厂安全评估方法,电子信箱:lltong@sjtu.edu.cn
Reliability Analysis of Safety System in Nuclear Power Plant Based on Bayesian Network
Affiliations
出版时间: 2013-11-28
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2013.33.008
文章导航
针对核电厂改进的辅助给水系统(ASG),研究了基于贝叶斯网络的系统安全评价方法。通过故障模式与影响分析构建ASG系统可靠性框图,根据可靠性框图与贝叶斯网络的映射关系,建立ASG系统贝叶斯网络,利用网络推理计算事件发生概率,对系统进行了可靠性分析。研究结果表明,该方法通过贝叶斯网络的正向推理、反向推理和双向推理,能够计算任意节点事件的发生概率,表征设备多态失效模式和获得更多评估信息,与传统的故障树方法相比,具有更强的分析能力和更接近实际,适用于核电厂安全系统的可靠性评价,且具有一定的优越性。
核电厂
/
安全系统
/
可靠性分析
/
贝叶斯网络方法
/
辅助给水系统
With respect to the improved Auxiliary Feedwater System(ASG) of Nuclear Power Plant(NPP), this paper studies the safety evaluation method based on the Bayesian Network(BN). The first step is to set up the Reliability Block Diagram(RBD) of ASG through the Failure Mode and the Effect Analysis(FMEA). Then the BN of the ASG is built in terms of the mapping relation between RBD and BN. Based on the network reasoning, the event occurrence probability is calculated and the system reliability is analyzed. It is indicated that through the forward reasoning, the backward reasoning and the bidirectional reasoning, the occurrence probability of an arbitrary node can be calculated and more information about the reliability evaluation can be obtained. Compared with the traditional Fault Tree Analysis(FTA), this method enjoys a more powerful analysis ability and its results are more closely verified by practice. It can be applied to the reliability analysis of the safety system in NPP.
nuclear power plant
/
safety system
/
reliability analysis
/
bayesian network method
/
ASG
顾健;薛峻峰;彭建平;王志强;宫海光;佟立丽.
基于贝叶斯网络的核电厂安全系统可靠性分析.
科技导报,
2013
, 31
(33)
: 52
-57
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2013.33.008
GU Jian;XUE Junfeng;PENG Jianping;WANG Zhiqiang;GONG Haiguang;TONG Lili.
Reliability Analysis of Safety System in Nuclear Power Plant Based on Bayesian Network[J].
Science & Technology Review ,
2013
, 31
(33)
: 52
-57
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2013.33.008
2013年第31卷第33期
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文章信息
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2013.33.008
接收时间:2013-03-28
首发时间:2013-11-28
出版时间:2013-11-28
收稿日期:2013-03-28
修回日期:2013-09-24
通讯作者:
佟立丽,博士,高级工程师,研究方向为核电厂安全评估方法,电子信箱:lltong@sjtu.edu.cn
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/kjdb/CN/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2013.33.008
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科 Family 属数 Number of genus 种数 Number of species 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) 属 Genus 种数 Number of species 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78 小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39 红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87 小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26 光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39 红菇属 Russula 17 8.13 栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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