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科技导报
| 综述文章 2012, 30(36): 66-71
风电场风速和风电功率预报准确率评判方法
全屏
江滢1,2 , 李忠3 , 侯佑华4 , 赵东1,2
作者信息
1. 中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京 100081;2. 中国气象局风能太阳能中心,北京 100081;3. 内蒙古气象局,呼和浩特 010051;4. 内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司,呼和浩特 010000
Evaluation Methods for Forecast Accuracy of Wind Speed and Wind Power of a Wind Farm
Affiliations
出版时间: 2012-12-18
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2012.36.011
文章导航
对风电场风速和风电功率预报进行客观准确的评判,可以有效促进风电场风速和风电功率预报水平的提升,为减缓风电并网对电网的影响服务.本文在对风电场风速和风电功率预报准确率评判方法进行全面回顾的基础上,分析了常用数学预报准确率评判法、相对于风电场额定值的预报准确率评判法、等级预报准确率评判法和与风力发电特征紧密结合的风电场风速预报准确率评判法.同时还分析了这4类风电场风速和风电功率预报准确率评判方法的特质,及其与风力发电特征的结合程度和适用范围.
风电场
/
风速
/
风电功率
/
预报
/
准确率
/
误差
The accurate evaluation of the wind speed and wind power forecast for a wind farm can effectively promote the forecasting accurate levels and reduce the adverse effects of the wind power on the power network. This paper makes a comprehensive review of forecast accuracy evaluation methods of the wind speed and the wind power for wind farms, and it is shown that the forecast accuracy evaluation methods fall into four categories, the common mathematical prediction accuracy evaluation method, the forecast error percentage method relative to the wind farm rating, the grade forecast accuracy evaluation method and the method closely integrated with the wind power generation characteristics. These accuracy evaluation methods are analyzed with respect to the characteristics, the extent and the scope, related with the wind power generation characteristics.
wind farms
/
wind speed
/
wind power
/
forecasting
/
accuracy
/
error
江滢;李忠;侯佑华;赵东;.
风电场风速和风电功率预报准确率评判方法.
科技导报,
2012
, 30
(36)
: 66
-71
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2012.36.011
JIANG Ying;LI Zhong;HOU Youhua;ZHAO Dong;.
Evaluation Methods for Forecast Accuracy of Wind Speed and Wind Power of a Wind Farm[J].
Science & Technology Review ,
2012
, 30
(36)
: 66
-71
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2012.36.011
2012年第30卷第36期
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文章信息
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2012.36.011
接收时间:2012-08-13
首发时间:2012-12-18
出版时间:2012-12-18
收稿日期:2012-08-13
修回日期:2012-11-01
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/kjdb/CN/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2012.36.011
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科 Family 属数 Number of genus 种数 Number of species 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) 属 Genus 种数 Number of species 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78 小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39 红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87 小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26 光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39 红菇属 Russula 17 8.13 栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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