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The results show that the skill score of the correlation prediction up to 20 days ahead of time can reach more than 0.50 in the 60 forecasts, and the variations of the low frequency meridional wind of the key region are well predicted in connection with a disastrous rain on July 18, 2011 over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley., authors=YANG Qiuming, authorsList=YANG Qiuming, authorCompany=Jiangsu Meteorological Institute, Nanjing 210008, China, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=jHGdZSSB56hjaS0ey6hrkA==, pdfFileSize=3240911, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1242128153771053497, articleId=1242128150826652074, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=CN, title=2011年7月中旬长江下游地区强降水期间低频环流延伸期预报试验, columnId=1146540929516700224, journalTitle=科技导报, columnName=研究论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=用2011年5-7月逐日东亚地区850hPa经向风场资料建立主振荡预测模型(POP),对影响7月中旬长江下游地区强降水过程的主要低频经向风场(20-30d时间尺度)的时空变化进行10-30d延伸期独立预报试验。结果表明,在60次预测中提前20d预报的相关预报技巧在0.50以上,很好地预报了2011年7月18日长江下游特大暴雨过程对应的关键区20-30d时间尺度的低频经向风变化过程。, authors=杨秋明, authorsList=杨秋明, authorCompany=江苏省气象科学研究所,南京 210008, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=Ws+nIYV7Vw2oiO7PeIgyjA==, pdfFileSize=3240911, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=null, 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科技导报
|研究论文
2011
, 29
(32) :
61
-66
2011年7月中旬长江下游地区强降水期间低频环流延伸期预报试验
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杨秋明
作者信息
Extended Range Forecast Experiments of the Low Frequency Circulation for the Period of the Heavy Precipitation over the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in Mid-July 2011
YANG Qiuming
Affiliations
Jiangsu Meteorological Institute, Nanjing 210008, China
出版时间: 2011-11-18
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.32.010
文章导航
用2011年5-7月逐日东亚地区850hPa经向风场资料建立主振荡预测模型(POP),对影响7月中旬长江下游地区强降水过程的主要低频经向风场(20-30d时间尺度)的时空变化进行10-30d延伸期独立预报试验。结果表明,在60次预测中提前20d预报的相关预报技巧在0.50以上,很好地预报了2011年7月18日长江下游特大暴雨过程对应的关键区20-30d时间尺度的低频经向风变化过程。
20-30d振荡
/
长江下游地区
/
强降水
/
延伸期预报
Based on the low-frequency meridional wind of 850 hPa over East Asia for May-July in 2011 on the time scale of the 20-30 days, a series of the principal oscillation pattern (POP) models are built, and independent forecast experiments of POP models are carried out for the propagation of the low-frequency zone associated with the heavy precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley in Mid-July 2011 for the extended range of the 10-30 days. The results show that the skill score of the correlation prediction up to 20 days ahead of time can reach more than 0.50 in the 60 forecasts, and the variations of the low frequency meridional wind of the key region are well predicted in connection with a disastrous rain on July 18, 2011 over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley.
20-30 day oscillation
/
lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley
/
heavy precipitation
/
extended range forecast
杨秋明.
2011年7月中旬长江下游地区强降水期间低频环流延伸期预报试验.
科技导报,
2011
, 29
(32)
: 61
-66
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.32.010
YANG Qiuming.
Extended Range Forecast Experiments of the Low Frequency Circulation for the Period of the Heavy Precipitation over the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in Mid-July 2011[J].
Science & Technology Review ,
2011
, 29
(32)
: 61
-66
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.32.010
2011年第29卷第32期
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91
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文章信息
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.32.010
接收时间：2011-09-19
首发时间：2011-11-18
出版时间：2011-11-18
收稿日期：2011-09-19
修回日期：2011-11-05
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/kjdb/CN/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.32.010
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科 属数 种数 占总种数比例 属 种数 占总种数比例 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78 小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39 红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87 小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26 光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39 红菇属 Russula 17 8.13 栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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