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2011年7月中旬长江下游地区强降水期间低频环流延伸期预报试验
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科技导报
| 研究论文 2011,29(32): 61-66
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科技导报
| 研究论文 2011, 29(32): 61-66
2011年7月中旬长江下游地区强降水期间低频环流延伸期预报试验
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杨秋明
作者信息
江苏省气象科学研究所,南京 210008
Extended Range Forecast Experiments of the Low Frequency Circulation for the Period of the Heavy Precipitation over the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in Mid-July 2011
Based on the low-frequency meridional wind of 850 hPa over East Asia for May-July in 2011 on the time scale of the 20-30 days, a series of the principal oscillation pattern (POP) models are built, and independent forecast experiments of POP models are carried out for the propagation of the low-frequency zone associated with the heavy precipitation over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley in Mid-July 2011 for the extended range of the 10-30 days. The results show that the skill score of the correlation prediction up to 20 days ahead of time can reach more than 0.50 in the 60 forecasts, and the variations of the low frequency meridional wind of the key region are well predicted in connection with a disastrous rain on July 18, 2011 over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley.
Key words
20-30 day oscillation
/
lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley
/
heavy precipitation
/
extended range forecast
YANG Qiuming.
Extended Range Forecast Experiments of the Low Frequency Circulation for the Period of the Heavy Precipitation over the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley in Mid-July 2011[J].
Science & Technology Review,
2011
, 29
(32)
: 61
-66
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2011.32.010
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