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科技导报
|研究论文
2010
, 28
(08) :
26
-32
2009年北京市甲型H1N1流行的气象因子与时空传播风险
全屏
曹志冬1,曾大军1,王飞跃1,王全意2,王小莉2,王姣姣3,郑晓龙1
作者信息
1. 中国科学院自动化研究所复杂系统与智能科学重点实验室,北京 1001902. 北京市疾病预防控制中心,北京 1000133. 中国矿业大学(北京)地球科学与测绘工程学院,北京 100083
Weather Conditions and Spatio-Temporal Spreading Risk of the Beijing 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Epidemic
Affiliations
出版时间: 2010-04-28
文章导航
2009年8月初,甲型H1N1逐步在北京市本地人群中大范围传播扩散。实验室检测表明,甲型H1N1阳性病例占流感样病例的比例(从0.0086到0.7035)呈逐步上升趋势。本研究利用相关性统计分析方法,探索了2009年8月3日—11月8日甲型H1N1阳性率和4个气象因子(气温、相对湿度、降水量、风速)之间的关联关系。结果表明,甲型H1N1阳性率与气温的相关系数为-0.9458(P<0.05),甲型H1N1阳性率与相对湿度的相关系数为-0.4581(P<0.1),干冷环境下的甲型H1N1阳性率显著偏高。本研究构建了利用气温和相关湿度估算甲型H1N1阳性率的逻辑斯谛模型,反演得到了北京市每个区县每天的甲型H1N1阳性率,分析了北京市甲型H1N1流行的时空传播风险。
甲型H1N1
/
气象因子
/
逻辑斯谛模型
/
时空传播风险
/
北京市
In early August 2009, influenza A(H1N1) started to spread widely among the local residents in Beijing. H1N1 test results indicate that the percentage of H1N1 infections among all out-patient influenza-like illnesses rose steadily from 0.0086 to 0.7035. Using statistical correlation analysis, we have studied the relationship between H1N1 cases and four weather conditions including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed. The correlation between H1N1 positive rate and temperature is significant, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.9458(P<0.05). At the significant level of 0.1, the correlation between H1N1 positive rate and relative humidity is significant as well, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.4581. H1N1 positive rate in dry and cold environment is significantly higher. Furthermore, we have constructed a logistic regression model to predict H1N1 positive rate from temperature and relative humidity and identified the spatio-temporal spreading risk of the Beijing 2009 influenza A(H1N1) Epidemic.
influenza A(H1N1)
/
weather condition
/
logistic model
/
spatio-temporal risk
/
Beijing
曹志冬;曾大军;王飞跃;王全意;王小莉;王姣姣;郑晓龙.
2009年北京市甲型H1N1流行的气象因子与时空传播风险.
科技导报,
2010
, 28
(08)
: 26
-32
.
.
Weather Conditions and Spatio-Temporal Spreading Risk of the Beijing 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Epidemic[J].
Science & Technology Review ,
2010
, 28
(08)
: 26
-32
.
2010年第28卷第08期
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接收时间:1900-01-01
首发时间:2010-04-28
出版时间:2010-04-28
收稿日期:1900-01-01
修回日期:1900-01-01
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/kjdb/CN/1242119921161797927
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科 Family 属数 Number of genus 种数 Number of species 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) 属 Genus 种数 Number of species 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78 小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39 红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87 小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26 光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39 红菇属 Russula 17 8.13 栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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