Article(id=1242118463536300316, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1242118462953296474, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=null, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1255968000000, receivedDateStr=2009-10-20, revisedDate=1259164800000, revisedDateStr=2009-11-26, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1260633600000, onlineDateStr=2009-12-13, pubDate=1260633600000, pubDateStr=2009-12-13, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1260633600000, onlineIssueDateStr=2009-12-13, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1774073719150, creator=sys-migrate, updateTime=1774073719150, updator=sys-migrate, issue=Issue{id=1242118462953296474, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, year='2009', volume='27', issue='0923', pageStart='1', pageEnd='140', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1260633600000', pubDateStr='2009-12-13', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=3, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1774073719010, creator='sys-migrate', updateTime=1774073719010, updator='sys-migrate', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=41, endPage=48, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1242118466984018212, articleId=1242118463536300316, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=EN, title=Uncertainties of climate warming for the last 100 years, columnId=1242116080374710456, journalTitle=Science & Technology Review, columnName=Articles, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=There are the uncertainties and gaps in knowledge for the recent climate warming, especially in the special region such as China. The uncertainties of climate warming in China came from both lack of the observed data for the first half of the 20th century and urbanization progress (heat island effects) for the second half of the 20th century that might be contributed by the 25% of the total warming. The climate warming in China for the last 50 years was not only contributed by the human activity, but also by the urbanization, the natural periodicity and decadal variability, dimming and brightening, as well as other forcing such as solar activity, volcanic activity and interactions inside climate system.. The fractional uncertainties of the future climate prediction and projections vary due to internal variability, climate model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. The reliability of climate change prediction and projections in China for the next decades will be low. More research should be conducted in future for narrowing the uncertainties., authors=null, authorsList=null, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=MbaA4mUOH3oFRGZdAU3UAw==, pdfFileSize=1135609, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1242118464794595944, articleId=1242118463536300316, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=CN, title=近百年气候变暖的不确定性分析, columnId=1146540929516700224, journalTitle=科技导报, columnName=研究论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=百年时间尺度全球和中国气候变暖存在不确定性，以中国为例，前50年观测资料不足可能造成百年变暖趋势的不确定性，后50年城市化进程热岛效应可能在增暖中占到25%。贡献于近50年中国的变暖，不仅来自人类排放增加，而且城市化，气温自然的准周期性和年代际变率，地面接收太阳辐射的减少（变暗）或增加（变明），以及其它外部强迫如火山活动和太阳活动与气候系统内部作用等。全球气候模式的不确定性和未来情景设计中的问题都影响到对变暖的原因分析以及带来10-20年预测的可信度较低。这些问题有待在进一步研究中解决。, authors=赵宗慈，王绍武，罗 勇，江 滢, authorsList=赵宗慈;王绍武;罗 勇;江 滢, authorCompany=中国气象局气候研究开放实验室，北京 100081, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=赵宗慈, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=bJVazpZDdzfAJPHHdp0ehg==, pdfFileSize=1135609, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=null, keywords=[Keyword(id=1242118464542937699, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1242118463536300316, language=CN, orderNo=1, 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