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科技导报 |研究报告 2007 , 25 (0711) : 58 -62
复杂产品创新风险综合评估模型及其
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段秉乾,王安宇,司春林
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    复旦大学管理学院 上海
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司春林
Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model for Complicated Product Innovation and Its Application
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    出版时间: 2007-06-10
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    复杂产品创新是实现“建设创新型国家”战略的重要组成部分,对于提高国家竞争力具有决定性作用。复杂产品创新具有高风险性,需要对其进行全面的风险评估,然而现有评估方法均存在某些不足。本文分析了复杂产品创新的关键风险因素,提出了模糊层次分析法风险综合评估模型。该模型突破了传统方法的限制,融合了多种评估方法,符合当代风险评估研究的发展趋势。
    复杂产品  /  模糊层次分析法  /  风险评估
    Complicated product innovation is an important part of the strategy in building a country into one of innovative type and plays a decisive role in enhancing the national competitive power. Due to the high risk nature, the innovation risk of complicated products must be assessed comprehensively. But most existing methods were found not very satisfactory in that respect. In this paper, key risk factors of complicated product innovation are analyzed and a comprehensive risk assessment model based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) is put forward. The model is well in accord with the trend of the current innovation risk assessment development, and is an improvement of traditional risk assessment methods in integrating various assessment methods.
    段秉乾;王安宇;司春林. 复杂产品创新风险综合评估模型及其. 科技导报, 2007 , 25 (0711) : 58 -62 .
    . Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model for Complicated Product Innovation and Its Application[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2007 , 25 (0711) : 58 -62 .

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    Percentage of
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    species (%)
    鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
    小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
    多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
    红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
    小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
    光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
    红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
    栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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