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The research was done through uncertain research methods. So the ideas of reliability evaluation must be introduced to analyze the change of roadbed stability. Spatial variability of permafrost and the variability of engineering properties of permafrost were analyzed, and the significance on the application of engineering reliability in the engineering stability of permafrost roadbed of Qinghai-Tibetan Railroad was discussed. According to engineering stability features of permafrost roadbed, possible disabled patterns of permafrost roadbed engineering were proposed. 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articleAbstract=青藏铁路沿线多年冻土具有强烈的时空变异性,多年冻土变异性受到了许多不确定因素的影响。气候变化不确定性、工程影响本身的不确定性、冻土工程性质变化的不确定性以及多年冻土变化的不确定性等,必须依靠不确定性的研究方法来实现,因此,必须引进可靠性评价的思路来分析路基稳定性变化。主要分析了青藏铁路多年冻土空间变异性和多年冻土工程性质变异性,论述了工程可靠性分析在青藏铁路冻土路基工程稳定性分析中应用的必要性;结合冻土路基工程稳定性特点给出了冻土路基工程可能的失效模式;结合多年冻土区路基设计原则,对冻土路基工程稳定性进行了可靠性设计和评价。, authors=吴青柏,程国栋,马巍, authorsList=吴青柏;程国栋;马巍, authorCompany=中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室 兰州, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=吴青柏, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=3sJ/7k3jxv2nbxZ14n0RvQ==, pdfFileSize=608719, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=null, keywords=[Keyword(id=1242118215782961817, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1242118214403031334, 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