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21纪全球海平面总体上升,但并非均匀变化。在冰川消融区,地表因负重减轻而回弹抬升,即使融水推高全球海平面,这些区域的相对海平面也可能下降。研究显示,这一现象将在格陵兰岛引发海岸线扩张、峡湾干涸等连锁影响。目前,该岛冰盖融化约贡献了全球海平面上升的1/5。

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(图片来源:《Science》)

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格陵兰冰盖消融:全球海平面上升,本地海平面却在下降
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21纪全球海平面总体上升,但并非均匀变化。在冰川消融区,地表因负重减轻而回弹抬升,即使融水推高全球海平面,这些区域的相对海平面也可能下降。研究显示,这一现象将在格陵兰岛引发海岸线扩张、峡湾干涸等连锁影响。目前,该岛冰盖融化约贡献了全球海平面上升的1/5。

Evan Howell. 格陵兰冰盖消融:全球海平面上升,本地海平面却在下降. 科技导报, 2026 , 44 (3) : 15 -15 .
. Science & Technology Review, 2026 , 44 (3) : 15 -15 .
冰盖消融致使岛屿快速回弹,促使科学家重新审视地球内部的运作机制
21纪全球海平面总体上升,但并非均匀变化。在冰川消融区,地表因负重减轻而回弹抬升,即使融水推高全球海平面,这些区域的相对海平面也可能下降。研究显示,这一现象将在格陵兰岛引发海岸线扩张、峡湾干涸等连锁影响。目前,该岛冰盖融化约贡献了全球海平面上升的1/5。
2026年1月20日发表于《Nature Communications》的研究表明,格陵兰部分海岸的回弹幅度将超出预期,到2100年海平面或下降1~4 m。西部和南部经济文化中心区域受影响最为明显。美国得克萨斯农工大学地球物理学家Roger Creel指出,这可能导致现有港口失效,需重新建设。
研究结果有助于地方政府提前应对航行受阻和基础设施调整。美国罗文大学气候学家Andra Garner认为,该研究凸显了海平面下降同样带来的现实挑战。
根本原因在于冰盖质量变化。格陵兰冰盖面积约为得克萨斯州3倍,局部厚度超3 km,其巨大重量压低地壳。融化后,地表回弹抬升,同时冰盖引力减弱,海水向外转移,共同降低局地海平面。
相关机制并非首次发现。政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)此前预测格陵兰周边海平面整体小幅上升、局部下降。但哥伦比亚大学地球物理学家Lauren Lewright团队发现,该地区回弹速度远超既往预期。
长期以来,科学界认为仅地壳能在短期内响应,而地壳之下的地幔,其如蜂蜜般缓慢的蠕动被认为需要数千年才能释放应力。但对格陵兰岛基岩的GPS(地理信息系统)测量数据显示,该岛屿的抬升速度很快。这表明当冰盖缩减时,地幔流动在短短几十年内就已启动。纳入该过程后,模型预测海平面下降幅度将比传统模型多出25%~65%。Creel解释说:“施加负载的速度决定了响应的速度,就像你从一座很高的桥上跳下来,冲击力会很大。”
研究还参考了14—19世纪“小冰期”留下的地质证据,当时冰川体积和海平面快速波动,可能加速了维京人离开格陵兰岛。
加拿大麦吉尔大学地球物理学家Natalya Gomez认为,该研究整合历史数据,提高了结论可靠性。她补充说,从格陵兰岛吸取的教训,有助于理解其他地区古代地质记录中冰川融化与海平面之间复杂的相互作用。
在格陵兰岛,陆地回弹将抬升港口和航道基岩,形成严重通航障碍,同时使贻贝、海藻和甲壳类动物组成的脆弱生态系统将被“晾”在陆地上,最终干涸死亡。未来的CO2排放量将决定情况会变得多糟。若排放持续增长,冰层厚、退缩快的区域海平面或下降3.8 m;若升温能控制在2℃内,下降幅度则仅约为0.5 m。
目前,格陵兰部分沿岸海平面仍在上升,但随着冰盖加速消融和地幔响应增强,这一趋势将逐步逆转。Leif Fountaine是格陵兰岛Sisimiut地区的一位70岁的渔民,他已经亲眼看到一个狭窄峡湾里的海滩变长了,尽管在其他地方,涨潮时的潮位正变得越来越高。但作为终身居住在格陵兰岛的本地人,Fountaine并不打算离开。他问道:“问题是,我们该如何适应?”
(译自《Science》,2025,391(6783))

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
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Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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