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Article(id=1225386833392087141, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1225386825246748695, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.12.00067, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1765728000000, receivedDateStr=2025-12-15, revisedDate=1767110400000, revisedDateStr=2025-12-31, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1770084587666, onlineDateStr=2026-02-03, pubDate=1768233600000, pubDateStr=2026-01-13, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769616000000, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1770084587666, creator=system, updateTime=1774080545222, updator=sys-migrate, issue=Issue{id=1225386825246748695, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, year='2026', volume='44', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='140', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1768233600000', pubDateStr='2026-01-13', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1770084585703, creator='system', updateTime=1774331268156, updator='13041195026', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1243198702408544966, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1225386825246748695, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1243198702408544967, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1225386825246748695, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=61, endPage=69, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1225386834243530878, articleId=1225386833392087141, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=EN, title=A retrospective of hot research topics in environmental science in 2025, columnId=1150494642224591153, journalTitle=Science & Technology Review, columnName=Exclusive, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

This review synthesizes the progress and trends in global environmental science for the year 2025, based on research published in leading journals such as Nature, Science, and National Science Review. Current international environmental research is characterized by multi−scale interdisciplinary integration and technology−policy synergy. Key frontiers are identified, including the accounting of global biogeochemical cycles, attribution of extreme climate events, mechanisms of ecosystem functional responses, health effects of atmospheric pollution, and the design of carbon neutrality pathways. Significant breakthroughs have been reported in understanding carbon sink dynamics, data−driven prediction, and carbon emission reduction technologies. China has made prominent contributions in addressing complex local environmental issues and promoting green technology applications. Particularly in the fields of greenhouse gas accounting, PM2.5 toxicity control, and sectoral decarbonization pathways, practical and distinctive "Chinese solutions" have been developed. However, gaps remain in leading global fundamental scientific inquiries and constructing major original theoretical systems. To advance China's environmental science research to the world forefront, future efforts should focus on deepening global collaborative observation, strengthening interdisciplinary integration, accelerating technology industrialization, and enhancing discourse power in environmental governance.

, authors=null, authorsList=Junji CAO, Hong HUANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1225386837204709595, articleId=1225386833392087141, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=CN, title=2025年环境科学热点回眸, columnId=1150494642375586098, journalTitle=科技导报, columnName=特色专题, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

归纳综述2025年全球环境科学领域的进展与趋势。当前国际环境研究呈现多尺度交叉融合与技术−政策协同的特征，聚焦全球生物地球化学循环核算、极端气候事件归因、生态系统功能响应机制、大气污染健康效应及碳中和路径设计等前沿方向，在碳汇动态认知、数据驱动预测、碳减排技术等方面取得系列突破。中国在应对本土复杂环境问题、推动绿色技术应用等方面贡献突出，尤其在温室气体核算、PM2.5毒性控制、行业脱碳路径等领域，形成兼具实效性与特色的“中国方案”，但在引领全球性基础科学问题、构建重大原创理论体系等方面仍存在差距。未来，深化全球协同观测、加强学科交叉融合、加速技术产业化、提升环境治理话语权，将是推动中国环境科学研究迈向世界前沿的关键。

, authors=

曹军骥，研究员，研究方向为大气环境、环境化学，电子信箱：

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曹军骥，研究员，研究方向为大气环境、环境化学，电子信箱：

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曹军骥，研究员，研究方向为大气环境、环境化学，电子信箱：

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Science, 2025, 388(6752): 1210-1213., articleTitle=Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1242147118668918892, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, awardId=2022YFF0802500, language=CN, fundingSource=国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0802500), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1242147116336885826, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242147116345274435, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, companyId=1242147116336885826, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology (AEEM), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242147116353663044, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, companyId=1242147116336885826, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环境与极端气象全国重点实验室，北京 100029)]), AuthorCompany(id=1242147116416577605, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242147116429160518, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, companyId=1242147116416577605, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2School of Resources & Environment, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242147116441743431, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, companyId=1242147116416577605, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2南昌大学资源与环境学院，南昌 330031)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1242147117804892256, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, language=EN, label=null, caption=null, figureFileSmall=lxXro5s4GIBLFosAb71BCw==, figureFileBig=W5bhKPje9whP7RzgRmBIog==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242147117876195425, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, language=CN, label=图1, caption=基于2025年《Nature》与《Science》期刊67篇环境科学论文的关键词共现聚类图谱

（图中聚类编号#0−#6对应正文所述7大方向）

, figureFileSmall=lxXro5s4GIBLFosAb71BCw==, figureFileBig=W5bhKPje9whP7RzgRmBIog==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242147117989441635, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, language=EN, label=null, caption=null, figureFileSmall=uzw9ItjJgn5YZBJz79hMXw==, figureFileBig=RYn51YGxVNEc1URD8LZEXA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242147118056550500, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, language=CN, label=图2, caption=2000—2023年温室气体排放与汇的时序变化, figureFileSmall=uzw9ItjJgn5YZBJz79hMXw==, figureFileBig=RYn51YGxVNEc1URD8LZEXA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242147118115270757, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, language=EN, label=null, caption=null, figureFileSmall=+YK+fNHSdDL2PzeDFNCQJg==, figureFileBig=+Gu2cmQQNRs0FIiFS6Nhtg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242147118178185318, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, language=CN, label=图3, caption=有机气溶胶（OA）组分及其吸光特性示意

（展示散射性OA与吸收性OA的组成：蓝色区域表示散射性OA，包含弱吸光含氮组分（WtN）和弱吸光含碳组分（WtC）；粉色区域表示吸收性OA，

包含棕色碳（BrC）和棕色氮（BrN）；箭头指示BrN向次生WtN转化的化学老化过程）

, figureFileSmall=+YK+fNHSdDL2PzeDFNCQJg==, figureFileBig=+Gu2cmQQNRs0FIiFS6Nhtg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242147118337568871, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, language=EN, label=null, caption=null, figureFileSmall=SkfCGqOTymgAAsYhW/+gAA==, figureFileBig=hXh9pw/g262CJZvh4mCz8A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242147118425649257, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1225386833392087141, language=CN, label=图4, caption=国际、国内环境科学研究重要文献的关键词对比

（左：67篇国际学者发表于《Nature》《Science》的文献；右：31篇中国学者

主导发表于《Nature》、《Science》、《National Science Review》的文献）

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2025年环境科学热点回眸
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曹军骥 1 , 黄虹 2
科技导报 | 特色专题 2026,44(1): 61-69
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2025年环境科学热点回眸
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曹军骥，研究员，研究方向为大气环境、环境化学，电子信箱：

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曹军骥1 , 黄虹2
作者信息
  • 1中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环境与极端气象全国重点实验室，北京 100029
  • 2南昌大学资源与环境学院，南昌 330031
A retrospective of hot research topics in environmental science in 2025
Junji CAO1 , Hong HUANG2
Affiliations
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Extreme Meteorology (AEEM), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • 2School of Resources & Environment, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
出版时间: 2026-01-13 doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.12.00067
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摘要
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归纳综述2025年全球环境科学领域的进展与趋势。当前国际环境研究呈现多尺度交叉融合与技术−政策协同的特征，聚焦全球生物地球化学循环核算、极端气候事件归因、生态系统功能响应机制、大气污染健康效应及碳中和路径设计等前沿方向，在碳汇动态认知、数据驱动预测、碳减排技术等方面取得系列突破。中国在应对本土复杂环境问题、推动绿色技术应用等方面贡献突出，尤其在温室气体核算、PM2.5毒性控制、行业脱碳路径等领域，形成兼具实效性与特色的“中国方案”，但在引领全球性基础科学问题、构建重大原创理论体系等方面仍存在差距。未来，深化全球协同观测、加强学科交叉融合、加速技术产业化、提升环境治理话语权，将是推动中国环境科学研究迈向世界前沿的关键。

气候变化  /  生物多样性  /  污染控制  /  可持续发展  /  碳中和

This review synthesizes the progress and trends in global environmental science for the year 2025, based on research published in leading journals such as Nature, Science, and National Science Review. Current international environmental research is characterized by multi−scale interdisciplinary integration and technology−policy synergy. Key frontiers are identified, including the accounting of global biogeochemical cycles, attribution of extreme climate events, mechanisms of ecosystem functional responses, health effects of atmospheric pollution, and the design of carbon neutrality pathways. Significant breakthroughs have been reported in understanding carbon sink dynamics, data−driven prediction, and carbon emission reduction technologies. China has made prominent contributions in addressing complex local environmental issues and promoting green technology applications. Particularly in the fields of greenhouse gas accounting, PM2.5 toxicity control, and sectoral decarbonization pathways, practical and distinctive "Chinese solutions" have been developed. However, gaps remain in leading global fundamental scientific inquiries and constructing major original theoretical systems. To advance China's environmental science research to the world forefront, future efforts should focus on deepening global collaborative observation, strengthening interdisciplinary integration, accelerating technology industrialization, and enhancing discourse power in environmental governance.

climate change  /  biodiversity  /  pollution control  /  sustainable development  /  carbon neutrality
曹军骥, 黄虹. 2025年环境科学热点回眸. 科技导报, 2026 , 44 (1) : 61 -69 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.12.00067
Junji CAO, Hong HUANG. A retrospective of hot research topics in environmental science in 2025[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2026 , 44 (1) : 61 -69 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.12.00067
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环境科学是应对全球气候变化、生物多样性丧失及污染危机的重要交叉学科。2025年，它继续在全球学术与政策讨论中占据核心地位，其跨学科价值与现实紧迫性进一步凸显。中国作为全球环境治理体系的重要参与者和贡献者，其科研范式秉持“眼望前沿，脚踩大地”的原则，旨在为破解区域性挑战与贡献全球性解决方案，提供兼具科学严谨性与实践可行性的“中国智慧”。本文通过梳理2025年度发表于《Nature》《Science》等期刊的代表性成果，回顾环境科学领域内研究热点、重大发现与理论进展，并通过国内外比较分析，提出针对性建议，以期推动中国环境科学研究的高质量发展与全球引领力。
1 国际环境研究热点回顾：从地球系统过程解析到综合治理方案
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基于2025年发表在《Nature》《Science》上的67篇由国际学者主导的环境科学领域高影响力论文的计量分析，关键词聚类分析（图1）揭示7大前沿方向，它们不是孤立存在，而是构成一个“观测认知—机制解析—响应决策”的紧密研究链条。
1） 地球系统关键过程：气候治理与减排路径。
聚焦于温室气体排放清单的精准核算与未来减排路径的不确定性评估，其核心科学问题在于厘清气候系统的自然变率与人为强迫的复杂交互作用。研究通过引入航空、卫星等新型观测平台数据，致力于优化对大气环流与污染物跨洲输送过程的识别能力，为全球及区域气候目标的动态管理和政策的适应性调整提供科学依据。
2） 极端演变：水循环扰动与风险评估。
在全球变暖背景下，干旱、强降水等极端水文气候事件的频率、强度和时空分布正在发生系统性改变。此方向研究致力于量化蒸散发、土壤湿度等关键水循环变量的长期演变模式，并揭示其与急流、阻塞高压等大气过程的耦合关系。
3） 土壤生物地球化学：微观机制与系统效应。
贯通微观与宏观尺度，综合研究土壤这一关键界面的元素循环。在微观层面，探究微生物驱动的铁还原、反硝化、甲烷生成等过程的动力学机制及其对环境因子（如温度、pH、水分）的敏感性。在系统层面，整合模型与生命周期评价框架，定量评估农业集约化、土地利用变化等人类活动对土壤元素循环和温室气体净收支的深远影响。
4） 污染生态效应：从物理化学过程到生物适应。
研究视野从大气气溶胶的物理化学演化与多尺度效应，拓展到其对生物个体、种群乃至生态系统的广泛影响。一方面，关注生物对污染胁迫的生理适应与分子调节机制；另一方面，揭示污染物通过改变光照、温湿度、土壤与水环境等条件，间接影响生态系统结构与功能的途径。
5） 气候变化归因：连接科学与政策的桥梁。
致力于建立从温室气体排放到具体气候损害（如热浪强度、海平面上升、农业损失）的清晰、量化的因果链。通过先进的归因科学，可量化不同历史排放主体的责任份额，其核心目标是将坚实的科学证据直接转化为支撑气候谈判、政策制定乃至气候诉讼的法律与政策基石，推动建立更公平、有效的全球气候治理体系。
6） 碳氮循环动力学：耦合机制与全球反馈。
聚焦海洋、湿地、森林等自然生态系统中碳与氮循环的交互作用与动态平衡。研究利用稳定同位素、分子生物学及遥感等技术，量化生物固氮作用，揭示有机质的转化、储存与输出通量，并分析这些生物地球化学过程与生态系统生产力、群落结构演替之间的双向反馈。
7） 冰冻圈变化：观测、模拟与风险预警。
重点关注以冰川、冰盖消融为核心的冰冻圈变化及其全球关联。利用卫星测高等技术，对极地、高山冰川的质量平衡进行高精度监测。同时，着力改进对冰冻圈变化过程、速率及其引发的级联效应的模拟与预测能力，以提升人类社会应对相关环境风险的韧性。
2 环境研究重大科学发现与理论创新
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2.1 关键科学发现
1） 碳循环与碳汇动态：认知修正。
关于陆地碳汇，研究[1]揭示，近几十年全球陆地碳储量的增加主要赋存于土壤有机质和死亡有机物等非生物碳库，而非传统认为的活体生物量。这一发现对“植被生长是主要碳汇”的核心假设构成挑战，提示土壤碳库的稳定性对未来碳−气候反馈预测至关重要。在海洋方面有研究[2]发现南极磷虾通过昼夜垂直迁移，以粪便颗粒形式将大量碳输送至深海，这一高效“生物泵”机制对南大洋碳输出的贡献被严重低估，凸显了特定关键生物行为对全球碳循环的调控作用。此外，学者提出应在温室气体核算中明确区分具有地质时间尺度稳定性的“地质封存”与可能逆转的“生物碳汇”，并呼吁确立“地质净零”这一更为严谨的长期气候稳定目标[3]。
2） 气候变化归因与极端事件风险：连接科学与损失。
Seo等研究[4]指出，2015—2024年全球海平面上升速率已达4.8 mm/a，其中2023年出现异常的“跃升”，这与格陵兰冰盖加速消融直接相关。模拟预测显示，若维持当前排放路径，至2100年海平面上升幅度可能突破2 m，威胁沿海数亿人口。在极端事件机制方面，England等[5]发现2023年北大西洋破纪录海洋热浪的归因表明，其主因是异常风场导致上层海洋混合层变浅、吸热效率大增，而非海洋热输送异常。另一项全球分析[6]证实，大气蒸发需求增加导致了约40%的干旱加剧趋势，且湿润地区干旱化风险显著上升。同时，研究[7]揭示，尽管全球野火过火面积近20年有所下降，但由于人口分布与火灾空间重叠度增加，面临野火直接威胁的人口总量反而上升40%，凸显了灾害风险评估中暴露度因素的关键性。
3） 生物多样性丧失与生态系统功能：阈值与尺度效应。
基于全球物种分布数据的研究量化指出，人类活动已导致全球38%的陆地生态系统出现“物种功能冗余丧失”，即关键生态功能仅由极少数物种维系，系统脆弱性大增[8]。在微观机制上，Lee等[9]提出土壤微生物组响应环境变化的“功能阈值”理论：当扰动低于阈值时，群落通过功能冗余维持稳定；一旦超过阈值，结构发生临界转变，导致碳氮循环等关键功能速率骤降40%~60%。此外，还有研究发现植被对气候变化的响应存在显著的“尺度依赖性”，大尺度模型往往平滑了局部剧烈响应，这对基于线性响应的传统预测模型构成根本性挑战[10]。
4） 污染与健康：新污染物与新路径。
Ten Hletbrink等[11]在北大西洋整个水柱中广泛检测到纳米塑料，估算其总储量可能超过较大尺寸的塑料存量，对海洋食物网及食品安全构成新的潜在风险。此外，Leon–Palmero研究[12]发现，阳光可驱动水体非生物生成强效温室气体一氧化二氮（N2O），其贡献可占水体总排放量的15%~30%，修正了“微生物过程主导水体N2O排放”的传统模型，将光化学过程提升为关键源项。此外，通过对弓头鲸的长期观测[13]，有相关研究证实鲸体内藻毒素浓度与夏季海水温度呈显著正相关，揭示了“海洋变暖—有毒藻华增加—食物链毒素累积—顶级捕食者及人类健康风险”的完整传递路径。
2.2 重要理论创新
1） 碳−气候反馈理论：约束不确定性。
通过验证长期变暖背景下植物茎呼吸的“热驯化”现象[14]，本研究表明生态系统呼吸对温度的反馈强度可能弱于当前模型的预测。这一发现暗示，未来的碳−气候正反馈可能被系统性高估，为更精确约束全球碳预算和气候敏感性的不确定性提供了新的理论视角和实验证据。
2） 生态系统稳定性理论：统一多尺度认知。
Liang等[15]的理论研究成功统一了关于物种丰富度与生态系统稳定性在不同空间尺度上的2种经典关系，揭示“物种异步性”是驱动稳定性随空间尺度增加而提升的核心机制。该研究创新性地提出“稳定性债务”概念，用以描述生境丧失后，生态系统功能并非立即崩溃，而是随时间延迟衰退的现象，对生物多样性保护的紧迫性提供了新的理论支撑。
3） 环境治理理论：从归因科学到干预伦理。
相关研究建立了从历史排放到具体气候损害（如热浪死亡率、经济损失）的“端到端”归因量化框架，为气候法律责任与损失损害赔偿机制奠定科学基础[16−17]。同时，针对海洋增肥等气候干预技术，Morrison等[18]提出“负责任转型”的治理原则，强调必须在技术研发早期就统筹评估其气候效益、潜在的环境与社会风险以及治理的合法性基础，为新兴地球工程技术的全球治理提供理论框架。
3 中国环境科学研究进展与贡献
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3.1 主要研究进展
中国环境科学研究紧密围绕“双碳”目标、污染防治攻坚战与生态文明建设等国家重大战略，在温室气体管理、大气污染防控等关键领域取得进展。
3.1.1 温室气体核算与管理
1） 温室气体综合核算与排放特征。
构建覆盖全经济部门、多气体的国家级温室气体收支数据集（2000—2023年）（图2[19]）。基于大气反演的独立估算结果与清单数据总体一致，凸显“天−地”协同观测在验证排放和捕捉空间异质性方面的优势[20]。针对农业，系统揭示了非CO2温室气体排放的时空演变[21]，反映了农业结构转型与减排政策的综合成效。一项关于全球河流N2O排放的荟萃研究[22]提出了颠覆性的“自然基线”理论，指出所有河流存在统一的反函数排放基线，人为氮输入导致基线整体抬升并催生热点，为全球河流氮污染治理提供了新的理论指导和优先级管理策略。针对自然生态系统，研究[23]明确了以湿地为CH4主要排放源、森林和草地为重要碳汇的典型源汇格局，并指出其净辐射强迫及空间异质性主要受N2O排放、气候变化与土地利用转型的驱动。在全球层面，中国学者主导构建的首个覆盖127个国家、450万口井的全球废弃油气井CH4排放清单[24]表明，2022年全球排放量达0.4 Mt（90%来自未封堵井），若不加干预2023—2050年累计排放将达9.9 Mt，及时封堵可实现53%~61%的减排潜力。
2） 碳氮协同管理。
开发综合模型量化了中国碳氮通量的协同演化。Xu等[25]发现，1980—2020年氮流失量增长2.3倍，碳排放量激增6.5倍；并进一步证明，通过优化施肥、工业脱硝等路径进行协同管理，可在实现大幅减排的同时，将单位减排成本降低37%，为协同推进减污、降碳、扩绿提供关键依据。
3） 甲烷收支变化的化学驱动机制。
基于长期观测，揭示了大气甲烷季节振幅变化的纬度分异规律，并量化了对流层羟基自由基氧化能力增强对甲烷化学汇的贡献[26]。另一项研究进一步指出，臭氧污染增加、水汽变化等因素共同推动全球甲烷化学汇的增长，明确了区域空气污染治理通过改变大气氧化性，对全球甲烷浓度产生的深远非预期效应[27]。
3.1.2 大气污染成因与效应
1） 气溶胶形成新机制与吸光特性。
近年的研究突破传统认知，揭示中国北方冬季燃烧源排放的异戊二烯对二次有机气溶胶（SOA）的重要贡献[28]。另外，修正了“SOA仅形成于云滴或亚微米颗粒”的观点，发现覆有硝酸钙涂层的老化沙尘颗粒是水相SOA的重要反应载体[29]。尤其是，研究确立了棕色氮作为全球有机气溶胶光吸收主导组分的地位（图3[30]），建立以氮为核心的气候效应归因新框架。
2） 大气氧化能力变化与颗粒物演变。
相关研究揭示了2020年全球大气氧化能力（·OH浓度）因新冠疫情封锁与极端野火下降4%的机制及半球差异，该差异还导致了南北半球臭氧浓度的反向异常[31]。长期趋势显示，中国一次颗粒物排放变化符合环境库兹涅茨曲线，主要受工业除尘与居民能源清洁化驱动[32]。此外，基于多源数据与机器学习的业务化框架已能生成高时空分辨率PM10网格数据，为污染监测与沙尘预报提供新工具[33]。
3） 大气颗粒物健康效应评估。
基于细胞毒性的研究量化了PM2.5的毒性差异，跨度达2个数量级，其中居民固体燃料燃烧毒性最高，冶金工业与刹车磨损的排放次之[34]。尽管2005—2021年PM2.5质量浓度下降，但毒性调整后的健康风险降幅不同——工业源减排主导了质量浓度下降，而居民源减排贡献了绝大部分毒性风险降低。跨境污染研究指出，2023年加拿大极端野火在北美与欧洲导致数万例人群死亡[35]；长期暴露于沙尘PM2.5与中低收入国家儿童死亡率显著相关，其健康负担长期被低估[36]。未来情景预测表明，气候变化下的野火加剧可能使全球野火PM2.5相关过早死亡人数增长数倍，健康风险的地理不平等性虽会缓和但仍持续[37]。
3.1.3 水土环境过程与生态效应
1） 水环境富营养化的碳循环效应。
基于卫星数据的全球分析显示，2003—2022年大型湖泊藻华频率显著上升，中位年增长率达1.8%，且44.8%的藻华湖泊频率与气温呈强正相关[38]。有研究表明，黄海浒苔绿潮沉降后约38%的藻体碳可被长期封存，其中10%转化为溶解无机碳（增强碱度），28%转化为难降解有机碳[39]。对中国内陆水体的分析进一步揭示，1990—2010年溶解碳储量显著增加，主要源于湖泊与水库储碳能力提升，空间上呈现“西北高存储、东南高流通”的格局[40]。
2） 土壤/沉积物中有毒金属累积。
一项整合全球近80万采样点的研究通过机器学习绘制了土壤有毒金属污染图谱，揭示低纬度欧亚大陆存在一条高风险“富集走廊”[41]，全球约14%~17%的耕地受污染，约9亿~14亿人生活在高风险区域。针对青藏高原湿地研究则识别出沉积物汞累积的2种模式：“表层峰”主要由人为排放与冰冻圈变化协同驱动，“次表层峰”与西风区水文波动密切相关[42]。
3.1.4 气候变化与生态系统响应
1） 森林气候减缓潜力评估与反馈机制。
模拟研究[43]表明，再造林通过生物地球物理过程对生物源二次有机气溶胶（BSOA）的冷却效应产生复杂调节，且存在显著区域分异，其反馈路径分为2类：在反照率主导区，造林导致地表增温，促进生物源挥发性有机化合物（BVOC）排放，从而增强BSOA冷却效应；在云量主导区，造林增强的湍流促进成云，减少太阳辐射，反而抑制BVOC排放并抵消BSOA增长。
2） 森林砍伐的降水响应机制。
针对亚马逊的模拟分析[44]揭示，森林砍伐对降水的影响具有季节性反转。湿季时，砍伐区因中尺度环流增强而局地降水增加，但其外围60 km内降水减少；干季时，区域降水明显减少，影响范围可达1000 km以外，凸显砍伐通过改变水汽循环加剧区域干旱风险机制。
3） 面向气候韧性的能源系统适应性策略。
针对全球高比例风光电力系统的模拟[45]显示，气候变化将加剧供需错配，导致极端时段（成本最高的10%小时）的系统成本显著上升。研究指出，构建气候韧性的电力系统需各国依据自身资源禀赋，设计差异化适应性策略组合，以应对风光出力波动性。
3.1.5 行业脱碳与资源循环技术
1） 钢铁行业的最小成本脱碳路径。
通过集成全球钢厂数据开发的模型[46]表明，钢铁行业脱碳路径具有显著的时间阶段性与区域异质性：2030年前以提效和废钢利用为主，2030年后碳捕集熔融还原技术将成为经济可行的主流选择，2040年后绿氢直接还原炼钢技术有望在特定区域规模化应用，为行业提供差异化的转型蓝图。
2） 交通碳污协同治理与结构转型。
基于“协同指数”的评估框架研究显示，2010—2020年中国道路交通政策的碳减排与健康协同效应呈减弱趋势[47]。为实现2025年目标，亟需通过优化车辆保有结构与发展模式进行深层次结构性转型，以扭转协同效益下降的趋势。
3） 混合塑料正交转化与高值化利用。
针对复杂混合塑料回收难题，研究提出了基于“反应正交性”的新策略，通过识别聚合物特征官能团设计选择性催化过程，成功将复杂混合塑料定向转化为多种高附加值化学品，为塑料废物的“精准拆解”与高值化开辟新途径[48]。
3.2 科学贡献与范式特色
中国的环境科学研究已在若干方向形成具有国际影响力的成果，其贡献不仅在于具体的发现与技术，更体现在独特的研究范式与解决方案上。这些“中国方案”不仅有力支撑了国内生态环境质量改善，也为全球，特别是发展中国家应对复合型环境挑战，提供了系统性解决思路与实践案例。
1） 政策导向与应用驱动的系统化解题范式。
善于围绕国家重大战略需求，开展“问题识别—机理解析—方案设计—效果评估”的全链条研究。例如，“碳氮协同管理模型”[25]和PM2.5“毒性优先”控制策略[34]，均为多政策目标协同落地与治理模式从“浓度控制”转向“风险防控”提供了可直接操作的量化工具与科学依据，体现了强烈的解决方案导向。
2） 基于大规模观测的数据驱动型认知突破。
充分依托其庞大的观测网络和独特的地理单元，在关键过程认知上取得突破。例如，确立棕色氮的主导吸光地位[30]、解析区域排放对全球甲烷收支的调控机制[27]等，这些发现均源于对长期、系统观测数据的深度挖掘，修正了全球模型的关键参数，贡献了不可或缺的区域事实与过程理解。
3） 注重技术可行性与产业转化的创新路径。
从揭示沙尘介导的复合污染机制[29]到开发混合塑料“正交转化”技术[48]，中国的研究显示出将基础机理认识快速导向技术原型开发的能力。这种对技术成本效益和工程化可行性的关注，推动了成果从实验室走向产业应用，为解决实际环境问题提供了切实可行的技术选项。
4 国内外研究比较与差距分析
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通过对国内外高影响力文献的计量分析（图4）及前述进展的综合对比可见，中国在取得显著成就的同时，在研究视野、理论原创性、学科融合及全球议程设置方面仍存在差距。
1） 基础研究：全球性与系统性视野不足。
国际前沿致力于探索“地球系统级”科学问题，如揭示冰川微生物组的全球生物地理格局[49]、海洋环流对微生物功能群落的调控机制[50]及海洋溶解有机碳演化规律[51]等，这类研究高度依赖全球协同观测。相比之下，中国在本土人员问题（如区域复合污染）上取得扎实方案，但对驱动全球环境变化的基础性、系统性过程（如极地碳泵、深海过程）的直接贡献与引领性不足，在全球性大科学计划中的主导作用有限[2,8,49]。
2） 理论创新：从“验证应用”到“范式引领”转型滞后。
国际学界持续提出并定义新范式，如“地质净零”核算框架[3]、“土壤微生物功能阈值”理论[9]、“气候损害端到端归因”框架[17]，深刻影响国际评估与治理规则。中国人员研究虽在验证与深化国际理论（如热驯化 [14]、棕色氮机制[30]）方面成果突出，但提出具有全球影响力的普适性新科学范式的能力仍有待突破。
3） 跨学科整合：深度与定量化融合欠缺。
国际前沿已实现环境科学与数据科学（如AI重构预报模型[52]）、社会科学及法学的深度定量融合（如气候归因与法律结合[53]）。国内跨学科研究则多处于浅层技术应用或定性政策解读阶段，缺乏重构核心物理模型或构建“环境−经济−社会”量化耦合模型以支撑精细化治理的能力[18]。
4） 全球话语权：议程设置与规则制定能力待提升。
国际科学界通过主导大型计划与评估掌握议程设置权（如量化古老碳通量[54]、论证人类排放驱动气候变异[55]）。中国虽积极参与并贡献区域数据，但在主导核心议题设计、产出标志性全球综合报告方面仍处于“参与多、主导少”的阶段，将本国治理实践转化为全球公共科学产品与规则的能力有待加强[51,56]。
5 对中国未来环境研究的建议
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为弥补差距、发挥特色，推动中国环境科学研究实现从“并跑”到“领跑”的战略转型，提出以下战略性建议。
1） 强化基础前沿布局，拓宽全球科学视野。
建议设立长期专项，系统支持中国学者牵头或深度参与极地、深海、跨境河流等全球性主题的大型国际观测与研究计划。可试点设立高风险、非共识的探索性项目，鼓励挑战现有范式，为孕育“0到1”的原创理论提供稳定土壤。
2） 构建深度融合的“环境+”集成创新平台。
建议整合国家级计算资源与大科学装置，集中攻关下一代智能地球系统模型和“气候−经济−法律”量化耦合分析工具。其核心在于推动科研评价与资助体系的改革，旨在建立能够真正鼓励并系统支撑深度跨学科研究的机制。
3） 优化科研生态，激发原创活力。
优化科技投入结构，显著提升对环境基础研究、长期野外观测的稳定支持比例。加快完善国家环境科学数据共享政策与激励机制，在保障安全的前提下，推动中国代表性长时序观测数据（如大气本底站、生态网络数据）高质量汇交并接入全球共享网络，提升中国科学数据的国际影响力与利用价值。深化科技评价改革，建立以创新质量、实际贡献和长远影响为导向的分类评价体系。
4） 主动设置全球议程，提升规则制定能力。
系统性支持中国科学家在国际重要科学组织与评估机构（如政府间气候变化专门委员会、生物多样性和生态系统服务政府间科学政策平台）中担任核心领导职务，并主导关键报告章节的编撰。可依托“一带一路”绿色发展国际联盟等平台，主动发起以中国为枢纽、关注全球可持续发展需求的大科学计划。同时，实施更具开放性的人才计划，在引进顶尖学者的同时，设立专项资金资助中国优秀科学家深度融入国际顶级团队，培养战略科学家。
6 结论
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2025年，国际环境科学研究展现3大趋势。一是地球系统认知走向整体深化与精细化；二是技术发展呈现出主动干预导向；三是跨学科融合已成为创新源头。中国环境科学研究立足国家重大需求，形成了以解决问题为目标、以观测数据为基石、以技术落地为检验的特色研究路径，贡献了卓有成效的“中国方案”。这些方案对全球环境治理，特别是发展中国家具有重要参考价值。
展望未来，中国环境科学要实现全面引领，必须在巩固应用优势的同时，战略性地加强全球性基础科学探索、孕育原创理论、深化定量交叉融合，并积极参与全球科技治理。通过夯实科学根基、拓展融合边界、参与规则塑造，中国有望不仅为解决自身环境问题提供方案，还能为应对全人类共同面临的地球系统挑战，贡献更基础、更普适、更富洞察力的科学智慧。
基金
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  • 国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0802500)
文献
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参考文献 引证文献
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2026年第44卷第1期
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doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.12.00067
  • 接收时间：2025-12-15
  • 首发时间：2026-02-03
  • 出版时间：2026-01-13
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  • 收稿日期：2025-12-15
  • 修回日期：2025-12-31
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国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0802500)
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    1中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环境与极端气象全国重点实验室，北京 100029
    2南昌大学资源与环境学院，南昌 330031
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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