Article(id=1208361646842557441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1208361635656352181, articleNumber=null, orderNo=24, doi=10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.12.01745, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1734278400000, receivedDateStr=2024-12-16, revisedDate=1745683200000, revisedDateStr=2025-04-27, acceptedDate=1753804800000, acceptedDateStr=2025-07-30, onlineDate=1766025466881, onlineDateStr=2025-12-18, pubDate=1757692800000, pubDateStr=2025-09-13, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1762358400000, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-11-06, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1766025466881, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1774079978748, updator=sys-migrate, issue=Issue{id=1208361635656352181, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, year='2025', volume='43', issue='17', pageStart='1', pageEnd='144', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1757692800000', pubDateStr='2025-09-13', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1766025464214, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1774330860874, updator='13041195026', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1243196994169189037, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1208361635656352181, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1243196994169189038, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1208361635656352181, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=132, endPage=140, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1208361647404593167, articleId=1208361646842557441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=EN, title=Challenges of climate change on sustainable agriculture and response strategies, columnId=1150494643415773491, journalTitle=Science & Technology Review, columnName=Policy Forum, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Unsustainable modern−day agriculture has emerged as a crucial driving force behind the deterioration of the global ecological environment. Existing research is predominantly confined to single−disciplinary perspectives and lacks a comprehensive framework for systematically evaluating the feedback mechanisms between agricultural−induced environmental issues and climate change. Based on the planetary boundaries framework theory, the study systematically assesses agricultural ecological−environmental challenges and their multidimensional manifestations under climate change. It thoroughly examines action mechanisms, impact magnitudes, and geographical distribution patterns while analyzing interactive feedback effects among key elements. Furthermore, development pathways and policy recommendations are proposed to address climate challenges, encompassing: promoting smart agriculture initiatives, advancing green agricultural supply chain transformation, guiding sustainable dietary transitions, enhancing scientific innovation and Research and Development investment, and improving policy systems for agricultural green transition. Additionally, five critical research directions are identified to advance this field, aiming to provide theoretical foundations and practical guidance for sustainable agricultural development under climate change. These proposals seek to facilitate agriculture's transformation into a climate−resilient and sustainable system while offering strategic references for global stakeholders in agricultural sustainability.

, authors=null, authorsList=Ruiyu TANG, Jie SONG, Guangyu ZHU, Minghao ZHUANG, Yi YANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Yi YANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1208361649925370029, articleId=1208361646842557441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=CN, title=气候变化对可持续农业的挑战及对策, columnId=1150494643549991220, journalTitle=科技导报, columnName=政策建议, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

不可持续的现代农业已成为全球生态环境恶化的关键驱动因素。现有研究多局限于单一学科视角,缺乏系统评估农业造成的环境问题与气候变化互馈机制的综合框架。基于行星边界框架理论,评估了农业生态环境问题及其在气候变化背景下的多维挑战,深入阐释了作用机制、影响程度及地理分布格局,同时剖析了关键要素间的互动反馈效应。提出了应对气候变化的农业发展路径与政策建议,涵盖推广智慧型农业发展、推动农业绿色供应链转型、引导可持续饮食转型、加大科技创新与技术研发支持力度、完善农业绿色转型政策体系。此外,为进一步推进该领域的探索,提出了5个关键研究方向,以期为应对气候变化背景下可持续农业发展面临的挑战提供理论支撑与实践指导,助力农业向可持续、气候适应型系统的转型。

, authors=

汤瑞瑜,硕士研究生,研究方向为农业对生物多样性影响评估,电子信箱:

, authorsList=汤瑞瑜, 宋洁, 朱广宇, 庄明浩, 杨易, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=杨易, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
杨易(通信作者),教授,研究方向为气候变化对农业系统的影响和可持续健康饮食的环境效益分析等,电子信箱:
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黄色到红色表示过量施氮,圆点表示预估降水将增加的地区

, figureFileSmall=+oModSLjjpyjEvSvY2CerQ==, figureFileBig=BLzsVedci6d2cceE+EO7Cg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242144751835755369, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1208361646842557441, language=EN, label=null, caption=null, figureFileSmall=IuiggkwmKNX/HZVVnYUdNw==, figureFileBig=JjxQ6+eoxEdwLgNst44htQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242144751898669930, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1208361646842557441, language=CN, label=图4, caption=气候智慧型农业全链条可持续措施框架, figureFileSmall=IuiggkwmKNX/HZVVnYUdNw==, figureFileBig=JjxQ6+eoxEdwLgNst44htQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242144751957390187, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1208361646842557441, language=EN, label=null, caption=null, figureFileSmall=5dca7b5NT4b+LHXkNtpo4Q==, figureFileBig=tMmXmqfBoLsnH/Eo0hLRlg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1242144752011916140, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1208361646842557441, language=CN, label=图5, caption=气候–农业–生物多样性损失反馈图

箭头表示变量之间的联系,(+)表示在数量、强度等维度的增加效果

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气候变化对可持续农业的挑战及对策
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汤瑞瑜 1 , 宋洁 1 , 朱广宇 1 , 庄明浩 2 , 杨易 1, *
科技导报 | 政策建议 2025,43(17): 132-140
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科技导报 |政策建议 2025 , 43 (17) : 132 -140
气候变化对可持续农业的挑战及对策
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汤瑞瑜1 , 宋洁1, 朱广宇1, 庄明浩2, 杨易1, *
作者信息
  • 1. 重庆大学环境与生态学院,重庆 400045
  • 2. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京 100193
通讯作者:
杨易(通信作者),教授,研究方向为气候变化对农业系统的影响和可持续健康饮食的环境效益分析等,电子信箱:
Challenges of climate change on sustainable agriculture and response strategies
Ruiyu TANG1 , Jie SONG1, Guangyu ZHU1, Minghao ZHUANG2, Yi YANG1, *
Affiliations
  • 1. College of Environment and Ecology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China
  • 2. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
出版时间: 2025-09-13 doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.12.01745
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不可持续的现代农业已成为全球生态环境恶化的关键驱动因素。现有研究多局限于单一学科视角,缺乏系统评估农业造成的环境问题与气候变化互馈机制的综合框架。基于行星边界框架理论,评估了农业生态环境问题及其在气候变化背景下的多维挑战,深入阐释了作用机制、影响程度及地理分布格局,同时剖析了关键要素间的互动反馈效应。提出了应对气候变化的农业发展路径与政策建议,涵盖推广智慧型农业发展、推动农业绿色供应链转型、引导可持续饮食转型、加大科技创新与技术研发支持力度、完善农业绿色转型政策体系。此外,为进一步推进该领域的探索,提出了5个关键研究方向,以期为应对气候变化背景下可持续农业发展面临的挑战提供理论支撑与实践指导,助力农业向可持续、气候适应型系统的转型。

气候变化适应  /  农业可持续性  /  农业环境影响  /  应对措施

Unsustainable modern−day agriculture has emerged as a crucial driving force behind the deterioration of the global ecological environment. Existing research is predominantly confined to single−disciplinary perspectives and lacks a comprehensive framework for systematically evaluating the feedback mechanisms between agricultural−induced environmental issues and climate change. Based on the planetary boundaries framework theory, the study systematically assesses agricultural ecological−environmental challenges and their multidimensional manifestations under climate change. It thoroughly examines action mechanisms, impact magnitudes, and geographical distribution patterns while analyzing interactive feedback effects among key elements. Furthermore, development pathways and policy recommendations are proposed to address climate challenges, encompassing: promoting smart agriculture initiatives, advancing green agricultural supply chain transformation, guiding sustainable dietary transitions, enhancing scientific innovation and Research and Development investment, and improving policy systems for agricultural green transition. Additionally, five critical research directions are identified to advance this field, aiming to provide theoretical foundations and practical guidance for sustainable agricultural development under climate change. These proposals seek to facilitate agriculture's transformation into a climate−resilient and sustainable system while offering strategic references for global stakeholders in agricultural sustainability.

climate change adaptation  /  agricultural sustainability  /  agricultural environmental implications  /  mitigation strategies
汤瑞瑜, 宋洁, 朱广宇, 庄明浩, 杨易. 气候变化对可持续农业的挑战及对策. 科技导报, 2025 , 43 (17) : 132 -140 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.12.01745
Ruiyu TANG, Jie SONG, Guangyu ZHU, Minghao ZHUANG, Yi YANG. Challenges of climate change on sustainable agriculture and response strategies[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2025 , 43 (17) : 132 -140 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.12.01745
农业作为人类社会生存与发展的基础,在保障全球粮食安全和维持经济稳定方面发挥着核心作用[1]。然而,随着全球人口增长、经济快速发展以及饮食结构转变(如对肉、蛋、奶等动物性食品需求的增加),农业生产面临的压力持续加剧[2],不可持续的农业生产方式对全球生态系统的负面影响也日益凸显(图1[37])。全球40%的农产品依赖灌溉系统生产,使得农业成为全球最大的淡水消耗部门,占全球淡水取用量的70%[3]。同时,农业土地利用推动了全球森林砍伐。截至2019年,全球林地保有量仅为原始森林覆盖率的60%,远低于维持生态平衡所需的75%安全阈值[4]。这种土地利用变化加速了生态系统退化,进一步加剧了生物多样性丧失,约85%濒临灭绝的物种正受到农业活动的威胁[5]。而在氮和磷的使用中,农业占全球人为氮使用量的86%,且96%的开采磷也几乎都用于化肥生产,最终进入土壤体系造成全球范围氮磷失衡[6]。此外,全球农业粮食系统产生的温室气体(greenhouse gases,GHG)排放量约占全球总GHG排放量的1/3[7],即每年180亿t二氧化碳当量。在目前的发展情景下,仅农业食品系统的GHG排放量所导致的气温升幅,就足以突破《巴黎协定》设定的1.5℃温控目标[8]。这些环境问题不仅严重威胁农业生产的可持续性,还对实现联合国可持续发展目标(sustainable development goals,SDGs)构成了严峻挑战。研究表明,农业的环境影响直接关联到SDG 2(零饥饿)、SDG 6(清洁饮水与卫生设施)、SDG 13(气候行动)以及SDG 15(陆地生物)等目标的实现进程[9],形成了一个具有复杂互动关系的系统性挑战。
在此背景下,如何实现农业的可持续发展已成为全球关注的重要议题。鉴于农业系统与环境相互作用的复杂性,尤其是农业对环境影响与气候变化之间的互馈关系,亟需开展系统性、综合性的深入研究。然而,现有研究主要聚焦于单一维度的分析,如农业水资源利用[10]、土地利用变化[11]或温室气体排放[12]等,尤其是在气候变化背景下更为明显。因此,亟需从地球系统科学的整体视角出发,对气候变化如何影响农业多要素以及如何重构多边界要素间的相互作用关系进行分析,这对于制定气候变化背景下农业可持续生产策略至关重要。
行星边界框架(planetary boundaries)由可持续发展领域专家Rockström等[13]于2009年提出,为理解人类活动与地球系统的相互作用提供了重要视角,可用于分析农业生产活动对地球系统各个边界的影响。本文基于行星边界理论,揭示了气候变化对农业各边界要素的放大效应及其互动反馈效应,提出了应对气候变化的农业发展路径与未来展望,旨在为制定应对气候变化、实现农业可持续发展的政策提供科学依据。基于此框架,本研究旨在回答以下2个核心问题。
一是机制解析:气候变化如何加剧农业对生态环境的压力?
二是路径探究:如何通过多层面协同措施,引导农业在气候变化背景下实现可持续发展?
气候变化通过削弱农业生产力、改变水资源分布格局、过度开发土地资源、加速生物多样性丧失、加剧农业氮磷污染以及增加温室气体排放等途径,显著加剧了农业对环境的负面影响。这些由气候驱动的多重效应不仅威胁农业生产的可持续性,还通过复杂的反馈机制,使气候变化成为农业环境足迹的关键驱动因素和放大器。
气候变化对降水(强度、频率、持续时间)和温度的影响,由于陆地–大气反馈作用而增强,极大改变了雨养农业和灌溉农业的用水需求与可用性[14]。研究表明,雨养耕地面积可能从1.4亿hm2缩减至0.6亿hm2,部分依赖雨水灌溉的农田需采取措施,如修建水库来调节和补充水资源。降水模式的变化加剧了灌溉对地下水的依赖,目前全球约40%的灌溉用水来源于地下水。21世纪,全球灌溉格局已发生显著变化,尤其是水资源紧张的地区。以中国为例,气候变暖导致粮食生产重心逐年向“水少地多”的北方转移,北方灌溉农田的扩张加剧了水资源短缺。而大量农资的投入虽提高了产量,但加剧了水污染问题,进一步加重了水资源短缺和区域不平衡。气候变化还通过干旱加剧了农田对地下水的依赖,进而增加了区域地下水枯竭的风险。全球约30%的沿海大都市人口正面临因地下水超采和海水入侵带来的威胁[15]。自20世纪60年代以来,中国华北平原地下水水位大幅下降,形成了世界上最大的地下水“漏斗区”。预计到2050年,地下水开采量将增加20%以上,这一增长主要由气候变化的影响驱动。在全球升温3℃的情景下,依赖灌溉维持产量的农业区可能普遍面临地下水枯竭的风险(图2[16])。
气候变暖使北半球高纬度和高海拔地区的农业条件得到改善,驱动农业适宜种植区持续北移。中国东北地区玉米等主要粮食作物的种植边界已大幅北移[17],欧洲农业气候带也以每10年约100 km的速率北移。然而,这种农业格局的重构带来了土壤健康问题,特别是加速土壤有机质分解,降低土壤持水保肥能力,进而加剧灌溉需求并削弱土壤肥力。气候变化通过多种途径加剧土壤退化,威胁农业生产的可持续性。土壤增温加速了有机质的分解,导致CO2排放增加,降低土壤pH值,增加重金属活性,从而促进作物对重金属的吸收。此外,气候变化导致的极端降水事件频发,加剧了雨水对土壤的侵蚀;预计到2070年,全球侵蚀率将增加30%~66%,其中农业活动密集区域及暴雨频繁地区的磷流失尤为严重[18]。同时,降雨的减少也加速了土壤退化,蒸发量增加、风蚀加剧和沙尘暴频发等共同导致土地沙化和土壤肥力下降,进而引发有效耕地面积减少和作物产量显著下降[19]。更为严重的是,气候变化引起的海平面上升还可能加剧土壤盐碱化现象,并使沿海农田永久性淹没,可用耕地面积进一步减少,对农业生产和粮食安全构成直接威胁。
气候变化加剧了农业系统的脆弱性,使得主要农作物的稳定性和抗风险能力显著下降。模型预测显示,在高排放情景下,全球主要作物(玉米、小麦、水稻、大豆)的减产幅度达到10%~20%。虽然高纬度地区因气候变暖可能获得增产潜力,但中低纬度地区的减产将加剧粮食安全风险。为应对产量波动,农业生产者通过开垦新耕地或增加土地利用强度以抵消减产[20]。但这种土地扩张或土地集约化往往导致热带雨林和草原等自然生态系统的退化,引发“集约化陷阱”(即随着集约化程度的增大,生产力呈现倒U型曲线特征,同时伴随生物多样性的下降)[21],进一步威胁全球生物多样性。研究表明,到2070年,气候变化可能达到或超过土地利用,成为生物多样性损失的最大驱动力[22]。此外,气温上升和湿度增加为病虫害和杂草的“北移”创造了有利条件,迫使农业系统增加农药使用。这种化学防控手段不仅直接导致传粉昆虫和天敌种群的区域性灭绝,还通过食物链的生物富集效应扰乱食物网结构,对生物多样性产生连锁式负面影响[23]。同时,气候变化驱动的物种分布区偏移加剧了生物入侵风险,外来物种通过资源竞争挤压本地物种的生态位,进一步威胁生物多样性。
在气候变化背景下,为保障农业产量,氮肥(N)和磷肥(P)的投入持续增加。然而,化肥生产本身属于能源密集型和碳密集型产业。大量氮磷的输入改变了全球氮磷循环,而气候变化又进一步加剧了大气氮磷沉降,放大了农业对生态环境的负面影响。降水模式的改变和温度的上升,使农业土壤中氮和磷的流失形式、数量和时间,以及它们在景观中的迁移路径发生了变化。降水变异性的增加会使更多的氮磷通过径流、淋溶等形式脱离农田生态系统,流失到周边环境中。在RCP 8.5情景下,20世纪末丰水年磷流失量将提升近70%,部分干旱区域磷流失增幅可能超过200%[24]。历史数据显示,在极端丰水年期间,玉米田的氮流失量较历史均值高出78%~107%,而未来SSP 370情景下,俄罗斯西部、中国东北部等地区可能出现极端氮流失,其流失量可能激增500%~800%[25]。此外,气候多变性的其他要素,如夏季热浪、寒冷环境中更频繁的冻融循环和干旱事件,也会对农业生态系统中的氮磷流失产生显著影响,且这些影响在空间分布上具有较强的区域差异性。这些变化不仅形成了恶性循环,还对农业生态环境产生长期且复杂的负面影响,严重威胁农业生产的可持续性(图3[2627])。
气候变化通过直接和间接机制加剧了农业GHG排放。在直接机制方面,气候变暖促进水稻根系生长和分泌物释放,刺激稻田产CH4微生物的生理活动。模型预测表明,气温升高2℃时,至2100年全球表层土壤的累积CO2排放量可能高达232±52 Pg C[28],相当于2001—2021年全球CO2排放总量。同时,稻田温度每升高1.5℃,CH4排放量增加约23%[29]。气候变暖还会促进牲畜粪便发酵产生CH4,而升温和降水增加可创造有利于N2O生成的土壤条件。此外,冬季气候变化可能通过减少积雪、土壤变暖和更频繁的冻融循环,促进非生长季节N2O排放。在间接机制方面,气候变化通过改变农作物物候导致作物减产,这引发了土地利用变化和土地退化,加剧了土地开垦和土壤耕作过程中的CO2排放;尽管气候变暖可能提升高纬度地区的粮食生产潜力,但在水资源受限区域,灌溉需求的增加(尤其是对地下水的依赖)会导致更高的能源消耗和碳排放[30]。此外,气候变化还降低了农业化学品效能,为维持产量需要增加更多化学品投入,而这些农业化学品的大量生产可能会产生额外的GHG排放。预计到21世纪末,氮和磷持续流向淡水可能会使CH4的排放量增加约30%~90%[3132]。大气中CO2浓度升高和温度上升还会降低饲料干物质消化率,导致反刍牲畜CH4排放量增加。
面对气候变化、人口增长与经济发展带来的各种挑战,亟需从基础研究、产业发展、行为转变、技术支持、政策保障、长远规划等出发,构建具有气候适应性与可持续性的农业粮食体系,形成生产、供应与消费协同发展的绿色供应链模式(图4),推动未来农业可持续发展。
气候智慧型农业(climate−smart agriculture,CSA)及一系列可持续管理实践(如间歇性灌溉、精准施肥、豆类轮作等)在降低农业环境足迹方面具有显著成效[33]。然而,其在推广过程中仍面临多重障碍,亟需因地制宜地加以应对。第一,小农户普遍面临资金紧张、规避风险倾向强烈及信息获取受限等问题,难以承担技术转型所需的初始成本。可通过提供分层次的政府补贴、引入气候保险等方式降低技术采纳门槛,并借助合作社等组织构建知识传播网络。例如,欧盟将CSA相关实践与农业补贴相挂钩。第二,部分农民对新技术(如高密度种植)的潜在风险(如作物倒伏)持谨慎态度,传统经验依然是其主要决策依据。为提升技术适配性,应建立“平等对话”机制,系统收集并整合农户反馈,优化技术参数[34]。第三,目前全球尚未形成统一的农业碳排放核算方法,减排成效难以准确量化,且技术推广模式相对单一,缺乏对农民参与的重视,导致技术供给与实际需求脱节[35]。为此,可推动多方协同机制,由政府、企业及科研机构共同提供“打包式”服务,如定制肥料、补贴农药投入,并通过数字化工具(如农业技术APP)扩大服务覆盖。第四,CSA需结合地域特点(如干旱区宜优先发展节水技术),但现实中,许多技术推广活动常忽视了本地条件,缺乏参与式开发流程。建议建立统一的“监测—报告—核证”体系,将CSA纳入国家自主贡献(NDCs)等气候政策框架,同时依托碳交易市场为农业生态服务提供合理的经济回报。
推动农业绿色供应链建设,实现“从农田到餐桌”的资源循环,有助于将生态效益转化为经济价值。第一,推动物流绿色转型。推广新能源运输工具,构建多式联运枢纽;结合AI算法优化配送路径与装载率;通过屋顶光伏、余热回收与节能照明,推进“零碳仓储”与能效提升。第二,构建循环经济模式。推进农业副产品资源化,发展秸秆制生物炭、农膜与包装材料回收及再加工的“源—汇—源”闭环产业链;推广可降解与可回收包装,替代传统塑料包装;依托农机共享平台,以租赁模式提高设备利用率。第三,推动供应链数字化。融合区块链与物联网,构建可视化溯源与质量安全追踪系统;部署基于生命周期评价的碳足迹监测平台,建立环境绩效实时优化机制;利用机器学习预判市场波动与气候风险,增强供应链弹性与应急响应。第四,强化政策保障。设立绿色信贷产品,定向支持冷链基建与技术升级;完善中央和地方储备联动机制,缩短供应链“最后一公里”距离[36];推进绿色供应链政策“先行先试”,打造试点示范区;构建绿色采购、绿色金融与碳排放市场等激励体系,营造有利于零碳供应链构建的制度环境。通过上述举措,增强农业绿色供应链的长期韧性与高质量发展动能,助力农业供应链从“含绿量”向“含金量”的有效转型。
更健康的植物性饮食(如蔬菜、水果、豆类)不仅能降低30%~50%慢性病风险,其环境足迹也远低于动物蛋白,植物性食物的碳足迹比动物性食物低89%以上[3738]。行星健康饮食提出了一种平衡方案:每日摄入500 g蔬果和125 g植物蛋白,每周红肉摄入量控制在98 g以内[39]。这种饮食模式在确保人体所需营养的同时,能够大幅减少农业对环境的负担,包括显著降低碳排放、减少氮污染并节约土地资源。因此,推动饮食结构的转型,将成为实现食物系统可持续发展的关键举措,能够有效缓解健康与环境双重挑战。为了促进消费端的可持续健康饮食转型,建议采取以下措施。第一,强化消费引导。通过食品包装上的碳足迹标签,引导消费者选择低碳食品;在超市设立可持续食品专区,突出展示本地应季蔬果和植物蛋白产品。第二,减少食物浪费。倡导按需采购并设立购物清单,避免过度购买;在家庭中采用“先进先出”原则管理食物储存;零售商可提供小分量商品,并设立“临期食品专区”,促进食物资源的再利用。第三,公众教育。联合媒体和营养学家推广行星健康饮食理念;通过碳标签和短视频等方式,提升消费者对饮食与环境关系的认识;发起“节约挑战”等互动倡议,鼓励公众参与,营造节约型消费氛围。第四,政策引导,通过对高碳食品征税、健康食品(如蔬果)加大补贴,激励市场主体增加低碳健康食品供给;推动农业政策改革,建立“作物中性”政策取向;并将营养目标纳入农业政策评估体系;制定公共机构低碳膳食规范,建立基于生命周期碳排放核算的食材采购标准,逐步减少红肉等高碳食材供应比例。
在气候变化日益加剧的背景下,农业的可持续发展愈发依赖于科技的推动与引领。尽管部分技术已初见成效,但大多数关键性技术突破仍处于研发或试点阶段,尚未实现规模化应用。因此,加大对前沿农业技术的研发投入,加快其成熟和商业化步伐,是未来农业适应与减缓气候变化的战略重点。目前,人工智能与机器学习在农业场景中的嵌入式应用日益增强,可通过遥感数据与地块信息模型实现灌溉、施肥等资源投入的精准化管理,减少农资过度施用。纳米技术则有望推动控释型农药与肥料的应用,提升资源利用效率并降低环境负担,实现绿色输入替代。此外,多年生作物与农业光伏系统的复合布局,有望在减少土地扰动的同时,提高农田碳汇潜力与气候韧性;基因编辑和微生物组工程等生物技术则为作物抗逆性提升和土壤功能修复提供了新的技术路径。与此同时,浮动式光伏、垂直农业、智能灌溉和农业机器人等多元技术形态,亦在空间利用、水资源管理与劳动力替代等方面拓展了农业系统的适应能力与转型空间。然而,距离相关技术的广泛落地仍存在技术壁垒、成本压力与制度障碍。尤其是在生物固氮、替代蛋白与基因编辑作物等领域,亟需加强跨学科协作与政策引导。此外,当前农业研发资源仍高度集中于主粮与畜牧领域,21世纪亟需将更多资金引导至高营养密度、低环境负荷的食品体系,例如蔬菜、坚果及健康替代食品,以推动其产量提升、价格下降与消费者可及性增强,从而协同实现气候适应与膳食转型的双重目标[40]
农业绿色转型是应对气候变化和实现可持续发展的关键,而完善的政策体系是推动这一转型的基础保障。第一,应明确绿色农业政策框架。政府应以精准、协同、可持续为导向,明确绿色农业发展目标、重点领域和实施路径,推动政策的整体协调性。这些政策应涵盖农业资源保护、生态环境修复及绿色技术推广,推动农业绿色转型的顺利施行。第二,加大对农业绿色技术和产业的资金支持。政府应通过财政补贴、税收优惠和贷款贴息等手段,促进绿色农业技术的研发与推广。针对精准农业、气候智慧型农业和生态农业等新兴技术,应设立专项资金和项目,鼓励技术创新与应用。同时,应鼓励农业企业与科研机构合作,促进科技成果转化,推动绿色技术的广泛应用,提升农业可持续发展能力。第三,推动绿色生产模式的政策引导。应通过优化农业种植结构,推广智慧农业、保护性耕作和有机农业等绿色生产方式,推动农业生产方式的转型升级。第四,完善农业碳排放与减排政策。政府应进一步完善碳排放交易机制,明确农业部门的减排责任与目标,鼓励农民采用低碳减排技术,通过财政补贴等手段支持低碳农业的发展。第五,加强政策执行与监督。应建立健全的农业绿色发展评价体系,定期评估政策实施效果,确保绿色农业政策的有效落实。政策执行应具备透明性和公平性,及时发现问题并进行调整与优化,确保绿色农业政策的长期有效性。
基于现有研究,提出5个关键的优先研究问题,贯穿气候变化与农业系统的多维度影响路径,为未来研究提供了重要方向。第一,量化气候–农业多路径反馈效应。农业GHG排放量大且受气候变化放大效应的影响,然而当前对其反馈效应规模、空间分布及关键驱动因素缺乏精确量化数据,这限制了对二者复杂关系的深入理解与应对策略制定。第二,填补气候变化如何通过农业影响生物多样性的机制空白(图5)。气候变化与栖息地破碎化对生物多样性的直接影响已得到一定评估,但气候变化驱动农业实践改变进而对生物多样性造成影响的机制仍不明确;尽管气候变化对农业存在局部正面效应(如高纬度地区因升温短期增产),但这类收益通常被认为具有时效性,长期负面影响仍占主导地位[41]。因此,剖析气候、农业和生物多样性之间的反馈回路将是实现未来粮食安全和生物多样性目标的关键。第三,研究气候变化背景下农业绿色低碳转型的可持续性路径。需综合考虑农业生产与生态环境保护的协同发展,探索如何通过生态农业模式,如农林复合经营、生态养殖等,实现农业生产的低碳、高效与可持续,促进农业经济发展与生态环境改善良性互动,为应对气候变化和保障农业可持续发展提供全方位、多层次的理论与技术支撑。第四,全面评估新技术应用于农业的综合影响。农业新技术的推广可能对氮磷利用率、作物价格以及饮食结构等方面产生深远影响,而这些变化可能进一步影响农业可持续发展目标的实现[42]。因此,需要提前对这些影响进行预测并在推广过程中平衡各方面的关系,以确保农业的总体协调发展。第五,系统评估农药使用与气候变化的交互影响及优化路径。农药在提升农业生产效率的同时,也加剧了土壤退化、水体污染、生物多样性下降及食品安全风险。气候变化可能改变病虫害分布及农药降解行为,进一步放大其环境风险。然而,农药使用与气候变化之间的交互机制研究不足[35],亟需系统地研究其影响路径和优化策略,并明确气候适应性管理与农药使用之间的协同效应,为制定可持续政策提供科学依据,实现农业生产与生态保护的双赢目标。
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(52370193)
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2025年第43卷第17期
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doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2024.12.01745
  • 接收时间:2024-12-16
  • 首发时间:2025-12-18
  • 出版时间:2025-09-13
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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-16
  • 修回日期:2025-04-27
  • 录用日期:2025-07-30
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国家自然科学基金项目(52370193)
作者信息
    1. 重庆大学环境与生态学院,重庆 400045
    2. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京 100193

通讯作者:

杨易(通信作者),教授,研究方向为气候变化对农业系统的影响和可持续健康饮食的环境效益分析等,电子信箱:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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