Article(id=1207621134657364033, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1207621133784948800, articleNumber=null, orderNo=26, doi=10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.02.00228, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1740412800000, receivedDateStr=2025-02-25, revisedDate=1745337600000, revisedDateStr=2025-04-23, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1765848915017, onlineDateStr=2025-12-16, pubDate=1751040000000, pubDateStr=2025-06-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1751472000000, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-03, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1765848915017, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1774079756634, updator=sys-migrate, issue=Issue{id=1207621133784948800, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, year='2025', volume='43', issue='12', pageStart='1', pageEnd='188', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1751040000000', pubDateStr='2025-06-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1765848914810, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1774330924420, updator='13041195026', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1243197260683657459, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1207621133784948800, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1243197260683657460, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1207621133784948800, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=171, endPage=178, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1207621135026462789, articleId=1207621134657364033, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=EN, title=Spatial pattern of soil antibiotic pollution in China's farmland and the responses to fertilization and irrigation, columnId=1150494644690366681, journalTitle=Science & Technology Review, columnName=Papers, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Soil antibiotic pollution has become a significant issue in China's agricultural environment, impacting ecosystem health and food safety. This study, based on the Geographically Optimal Similarity (GOS) model, systematically predicts the spatial distribution of soil antibiotics in Chinese farmlands and explores the impact of agricultural management measures on soil antibiotic residues through scenario analysis. The results indicate that the average antibiotic concentration in China's farmland soil is approximately 16.9 ng/g, with distinct regional variations. The eastern and central regions generally show higher soil antibiotic concentrations, which are primarily associated with irrigation and fertilization management intensity. When the amount of organic fertilizer is reduced by more than 40%, the soil antibiotic concentration significantly decreases; conversely, when the irrigation area increases by more than 60%, the concentration of soil antibiotics increases rapidly. The study suggests that optimizing agricultural management measures, particularly reasonable fertilization and irrigation in high-risk areas, can effectively control soil antibiotic pollution and promote agricultural environmental protection and sustainable agricultural development.

, authors=null, authorsList=Fangkai ZHAO, Linjun SHEN, Kaifeng YANG, Honglin LIU, Lei YANG, Liding CHEN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Liding CHEN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1207621136729350253, articleId=1207621134657364033, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=CN, title=中国农田土壤抗生素污染格局及其对施肥和灌溉的响应, columnId=1146540929516700224, journalTitle=科技导报, columnName=研究论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

土壤抗生素污染已成为农业环境的重要问题,影响生态系统健康与人类食品安全。基于地理最优相似性(geographically optimal similarity,GOS)模型,预测了中国农田土壤抗生素的空间分布,并结合情景分析探讨了农田管理措施对土壤抗生素残留量的影响。结果表明,中国农田土壤抗生素含量平均约为16.9 ng/g,其空间分布存在明显的区域差异,东部和中部地区的土壤抗生素含量普遍较高,主要与灌溉和施肥管理强度相关。当有机肥施用量减少超过40%时,土壤抗生素含量明显下降;而当灌溉面积增加超过60%时,土壤抗生素含量迅速上升。通过优化农田管理措施,特别是在高风险区域合理施肥和灌溉,有助于有效控制土壤抗生素污染,推动农业环境保护和可持续农业发展。

, authors=

赵方凯,副教授,研究方向为农田景观格局的土壤环境效应,电子信箱:

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陈利顶(通信作者),研究员,研究方向为景观格局与生态过程,电子信箱:
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赵方凯,副教授,研究方向为农田景观格局的土壤环境效应,电子信箱:

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赵方凯,副教授,研究方向为农田景观格局的土壤环境效应,电子信箱:

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中国农田土壤抗生素污染格局及其对施肥和灌溉的响应
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赵方凯 1, 2 , 沈琳钧 1, 3 , 杨恺丰 1, 3 , 刘鸿林 1, 4 , 杨磊 2 , 陈利顶 1, 2, 4, *
科技导报 | 研究论文 2025,43(12): 171-178
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科技导报 |研究论文 2025 , 43 (12) : 171 -178
中国农田土壤抗生素污染格局及其对施肥和灌溉的响应
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4. 西南联合研究生院, 昆明 650092, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1242143802396324270, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242143802404712879, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, companyId=1242143802396324270, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. School of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242143802413101488, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, companyId=1242143802396324270, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. 云南大学生态与环境学院, 昆明 650500)]), AuthorCompany(id=1242143802480210354, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242143802488598962, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, companyId=1242143802480210354, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2. State Key Laboratory for Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242143802496987571, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, companyId=1242143802480210354, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2. 中国科学院生态环境研究中心区域与城市生态安全全国重点实验室, 北京 100085)]), AuthorCompany(id=1242143804074045889, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242143804082434499, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, companyId=1242143804074045889, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=4. Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming 650092, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1242143804090823108, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1207621134657364033, companyId=1242143804074045889, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=4. 西南联合研究生院, 昆明 650092)])])]
赵方凯1, 2 , 沈琳钧1, 3, 杨恺丰1, 3, 刘鸿林1, 4, 杨磊2, 陈利顶1, 2, 4, *
作者信息
  • 1. 云南大学生态与环境学院, 昆明 650500
  • 2. 中国科学院生态环境研究中心区域与城市生态安全全国重点实验室, 北京 100085
  • 3. 云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院, 昆明 650500
  • 4. 西南联合研究生院, 昆明 650092
通讯作者:
陈利顶(通信作者),研究员,研究方向为景观格局与生态过程,电子信箱:
Spatial pattern of soil antibiotic pollution in China's farmland and the responses to fertilization and irrigation
Fangkai ZHAO1, 2 , Linjun SHEN1, 3, Kaifeng YANG1, 3, Honglin LIU1, 4, Lei YANG2, Liding CHEN1, 2, 4, *
Affiliations
  • 1. School of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
  • 2. State Key Laboratory for Regional and Urban Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
  • 3. Institute of International Rivers and Eco-security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
  • 4. Southwest United Graduate School, Kunming 650092, China
出版时间: 2025-06-28 doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.02.00228
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土壤抗生素污染已成为农业环境的重要问题,影响生态系统健康与人类食品安全。基于地理最优相似性(geographically optimal similarity,GOS)模型,预测了中国农田土壤抗生素的空间分布,并结合情景分析探讨了农田管理措施对土壤抗生素残留量的影响。结果表明,中国农田土壤抗生素含量平均约为16.9 ng/g,其空间分布存在明显的区域差异,东部和中部地区的土壤抗生素含量普遍较高,主要与灌溉和施肥管理强度相关。当有机肥施用量减少超过40%时,土壤抗生素含量明显下降;而当灌溉面积增加超过60%时,土壤抗生素含量迅速上升。通过优化农田管理措施,特别是在高风险区域合理施肥和灌溉,有助于有效控制土壤抗生素污染,推动农业环境保护和可持续农业发展。

土壤抗生素污染  /  地理相似性  /  有机肥  /  灌溉  /  空间预测

Soil antibiotic pollution has become a significant issue in China's agricultural environment, impacting ecosystem health and food safety. This study, based on the Geographically Optimal Similarity (GOS) model, systematically predicts the spatial distribution of soil antibiotics in Chinese farmlands and explores the impact of agricultural management measures on soil antibiotic residues through scenario analysis. The results indicate that the average antibiotic concentration in China's farmland soil is approximately 16.9 ng/g, with distinct regional variations. The eastern and central regions generally show higher soil antibiotic concentrations, which are primarily associated with irrigation and fertilization management intensity. When the amount of organic fertilizer is reduced by more than 40%, the soil antibiotic concentration significantly decreases; conversely, when the irrigation area increases by more than 60%, the concentration of soil antibiotics increases rapidly. The study suggests that optimizing agricultural management measures, particularly reasonable fertilization and irrigation in high-risk areas, can effectively control soil antibiotic pollution and promote agricultural environmental protection and sustainable agricultural development.

soil antibiotic pollution  /  geographical similarity  /  organic fertilization  /  irrigation  /  spatial prediction
赵方凯, 沈琳钧, 杨恺丰, 刘鸿林, 杨磊, 陈利顶. 中国农田土壤抗生素污染格局及其对施肥和灌溉的响应. 科技导报, 2025 , 43 (12) : 171 -178 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.02.00228
Fangkai ZHAO, Linjun SHEN, Kaifeng YANG, Honglin LIU, Lei YANG, Liding CHEN. Spatial pattern of soil antibiotic pollution in China's farmland and the responses to fertilization and irrigation[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2025 , 43 (12) : 171 -178 . DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.02.00228
随着农业集约化进程的加速,农田土壤污染问题日益成为制约农业可持续发展的关键因素[12],尤其是土壤抗生素污染,近年来引发了广泛关注[34]。抗生素在土壤环境中不仅可对土壤生物造成毒性效应,也可以促进抗生素抗性的扩散和传播,同时可通过食物链富集、地下水渗滤等途径进入食物和饮用水中,威胁人类健康[56]。研究表明,2020年中国约11.4% 面积的农田的土壤中存在多种抗生素污染,且部分地区的含量明显超出生态安全阈值[7]
农田土壤是抗生素进入环境的主要归宿,有机肥施用和污水灌溉是土壤抗生素的主要来源[89]。作为有机肥的重要来源,畜禽粪便含有大量抗生素残留。中国每年排放超551 Mt的畜禽粪便,其中抗生素残留量高达数千吨,60%~90% 的抗生素因其物理化学稳定性在土壤中长期滞留[8, 10]。同时,污水灌溉的普遍性加剧了污染扩散。受限于农村地区污水处理设施的不足,富含抗生素的养殖废水、生活污水等被排入灌溉系统或被直接用于农田灌溉,导致抗生素持续进入土壤生态系统[11]。因此高强度农田管理措施将导致土壤抗生素污染的显著加剧。
土壤抗生素污染的空间格局与地理环境因素的耦合关系逐渐成为研究热点。气候条件(如降水、温度)、土壤理化性质(如pH值、有机质含量)以及农田管理强度(如施肥量、灌溉频率)等因素的空间分异,共同塑造了土壤抗生素的分布规律[1213]。例如,集约化蔬菜种植区,由于高频率、过量的灌溉和有机肥施用,土壤中四环素类抗生素含量显著高于传统耕作区[14]
地理相似性原则提出样点之间“地理环境越相似,地理特征就越相近”的空间预测思路,并根据已知点与未知位置的地理特征相似性,使用少量样本点成功地准确预测了研究区的土壤属性。基于此,本研究引入了GOS模型,通过量化地理环境与土壤抗生素污染之间的关系,进行全国范围内土壤抗生素污染的空间分布预测,将不同农田管理措施(如施肥量、灌溉面积等)纳入考虑,填补了在复杂地理环境因素协同作用下全国尺度土壤抗生素污染空间格局的研究空白[7]。本研究基于地理空间相似性原理,整合多源环境数据与农田管理信息,解析了中国农田土壤抗生素污染的空间分异规律及其与农田集约化管理的关联特征;量化施肥、灌溉等管理措施变化对抗生素分布的影响,以期为农业高效与土壤生态安全的协调发展提供科学依据,推动农业绿色发展。
1)土壤抗生素数据集
研究数据来源于中国土壤抗生素污染数据集[7, 15]。该数据集系统整合了2000—2020年内已发表文献中采集土壤样品的相关数据,涵盖了全国范围内不同土地利用类型(包括耕地、城市绿地、草地及森林)的土壤抗生素检测数据,并记录了采样点的地理坐标、采样时间及对应抗生素含量,抗生素类型包括四环素类和喹诺酮类[7]。数据集中未检出或低于检测限的抗生素含量被统一赋值为零,并且其含量均以标准单位(μg/kg或ng/g)进行归一化处理,以确保数据可比性。
在数据筛选与整合过程中,遵循以下原则以控制潜在偏差:(1)数据集内抗生素检测以0~20 cm表层土壤为主(占比大于85%),本研究仅保留表层土壤样本;(2)仅保留未在田间控制实验中添加抗生素的土壤样本;(3)剔除那些受点源污染(如医院、集约化养殖场周边)影响严重的样本,以避免这些局部极端污染值对整体空间分布分析结果造成偏差,确保研究能够更准确地反映普遍农田区域的土壤抗生素污染状况;(4)删除采样时间不明确或未记录空间位置的样本。经上述处理后的数据集,采用莫兰指数(Moran’s Ⅰ)评估数据集的空间自相关性,结果表明数据符合随机分布假设,可支持空间统计分析。形成的数据库含484个有效样本,约为原始样本的92.7%,覆盖中国东部和中部主要农业区(图 1)。
2)预测变量数据集
研究基于多源空间数据集构建预测变量体系,包括气候、土地利用、人类活动、土壤性质、植被动态及地形特征6类驱动因子,以系统解析土壤抗生素污染的空间分异特征。其中气候因子包括年均温度与年均降水量,数据来源于CRU TS V4.0高分辨率气象数据集[16]。土地利用类型数据来源于中国科学院资源与环境科学数据中心。人类活动主要包括畜牧业密度、农业投入强度以及社会经济压力,其中畜牧业密度包括牛、猪、鸡的存栏量(头/km2),农业投入强度主要包括氮肥、磷肥施用量(g/(m2·a))及农药使用种类数(个)[17];社会经济压力包括人口密度(人/km2)与GDP密度(万元/km2),数据来源于中国社会经济空间格网数据库(https://www.resdc.cn)。土壤理化性质主要包括黏粒含量(%)、有机碳含量(kg/m3)、容重(kg/cm3)、土层厚度(cm)及饱和导水率(cm/d)等参数[18]。植被动态通过MODIS的年归一化植被指数(NDVI)刻画。地形特征包括高程、坡度及地下水位,其中地形坡度(°)与高程(m)数据源自GTOPO30全球数字高程模型[19];地下水位深度(m)源自全球地下水分布数据集[20]。为保障多源数据空间兼容性,所有栅格数据统一重采样至1 km分辨率。
研究通过构建GOS模型[21]预测中国农田土壤抗生素空间分布。GOS模型基于地理相似性原理,假设在不同位置相似的地理属性(包括人类活动和自然特征)会呈现出相似的地理配置(如土壤抗生素含量)。因此,GOS模型通过使用与未知位置具有较高相似度的已知观测位置来进行空间预测,能显著提高预测精度和可靠性。模型构建流程如下:(1)变量筛选。采用逐步回归模型和方差膨胀因子(VIF)方法来筛选有效变量。(2)通过交叉验证方法选择最优相似性阈值。该过程的目标是找出一个相似性阈值,使得在选择的样本中,仅有最相关的样本参与预测,避免引入噪声和无关数据。(3)基于最优相似性阈值,计算未知位置与已知观测位置之间地理配置的相似度,通过加权平均的方法根据相似度进行空间预测,见式(1),其中λ计算方法见式(2)。(4)采用不确定性分析方法来评估预测的不确定性,计算预测值的可信度见式(3)。本研究通过R包geosimilarity构建GOS模型,用于中国农田土壤抗生素污染的空间预测及其不确定性分析,模型验证通过决定系数R2表示。
$\widehat{Z}\left(v_\beta\right)=\frac{\sum_{\alpha=1}^m S_\lambda\left(u_\alpha, v_\beta\right) Z_\lambda\left(u_\alpha\right)}{\sum_{\alpha=1}^m S_\lambda\left(u_\alpha, v_\beta\right)}$
$\lambda=\operatorname{argmin}_\kappa R M S E_\kappa$
式中,$ \widehat{Z}\left(v_\beta\right)$为未知位置vβ的预测值;Zλ (uα)为在观测位置uα的实际观测值;Sλ (uα, vβ)为观测点uα和未知点vβ之间的相似阈值;m为已知样本点的总数,α为其编号,α = 1, 2,···, mβ为未知位置点的编号;λ为通过交叉验证确定的最优相似性阈值;κ为百分比阈值,取值范围为(0, 1];RMSE为对应的均方根误差。
κ值的大小直接影响模型如何选择与未知位置相似的观测点,从而决定了预测的精度和稳定性。当κ值为1时,表示模型将所有观测数据点等同对待,所有观测点对预测结果的贡献相同,即没有限制相似性,所有数据都被用于预测;而当κ值小于1时,模型只选择与未知位置具有较高相似度的观测点参与预测,较低的κ值使得模型对相似性要求更高,从而提高了预测的精度但也可能减少可用的观测点。
$\Delta\left(v_\beta\right)=1-Q\left(S_\lambda\left(u_\alpha, v_\beta\right), \zeta\right)$
式中,Δ(vβ)为未知位置vβ的不确定性;Q为分位数,用于量化与预测相关的相似性值;ζ为概率值,ζ值的大小控制了预测结果的置信度和精确度。
ζ值为1时,表示预测的相似性达到了最大,模型对未知位置的预测具有最低的不确定性,意味着预测结果非常可靠;而当ζ值较低时,模型的预测不确定性增大,预测结果的置信度下降。ζ值通过调节模型对预测结果的敏感性帮助量化和控制不确定性,从而在不同的应用场景中提供更合适的预测精度。
为了评估有机肥施用量和灌溉面积变化对土壤抗生素含量的影响,本研究通过模拟不同施肥量和灌溉面积变化情景,探讨这些农业管理措施在不同强度下对土壤抗生素污染的潜在影响。为确保情景分析的合理性,本研究设定了有机肥施用量和灌溉面积的变化范围为−90%~90%,即在当前基础上从减少90% 至增加90% 进行逐步调整。此范围的设定依据主要来自以下几点:首先,多目标权衡研究表明,施肥和灌溉的变化通常在20% 以内即可实现农业效益的最大化[22];同时已有研究表明,土壤抗生素和作物生产之间存在非线性权衡关系,但是施肥和灌溉阈值与其当前情景的差异不会超过100%[7],这一情景设定考虑了管理措施的极限效应。将调整后的有机肥施用量和灌溉面积作为输入数据,通过构建的GOS模型进行预测,并计算土壤抗生素的均值,通过比较不同情景下其均值变化,分析施肥量和灌溉面积变化对土壤抗生素污染的影响。
通过逐步回归模型分析了不同因素对土壤抗生素空间分布的回归系数及其显著性,通过回归系数,可以明确每个因素对土壤抗生素含量的影响程度,其显著性通过p值来评估,其中p值小于0.05的因素被认为对土壤抗生素污染具有显著影响。此外,通过预测值和观测值的回归R2值来评估模型的预测准确性。
逐步回归模型的分析结果显示,农田管理措施对土壤抗生素浓度的影响较为显著,尤其是灌溉面积和有机肥施用量(图 2)。其中灌溉面积的回归系数较高,表明灌溉面积的增加对土壤抗生素含量具有显著的直接作用,其回归系数为0.35±0.11(p<0.001)。因此农田管理措施,特别是灌溉面积,是影响全国尺度土壤抗生素污染的主要因素。
其他因素中,坡度对土壤抗生素含量有显著的负作用(p<0.001),坡度较大的区域农田土壤抗生素含量较低。此外,气候因素(如温度和降水量)和土壤性质(如黏土含量)也对土壤抗生素含量产生了显著影响,但其回归系数相对较低,表明这些因素对抗生素含量显著的影响较为有限。畜禽养殖规模和人口密度的系数趋近于零,表明其影响可能通过间接途径(如有机肥输入或污水排放)体现,而非直接作用,因此系数较低。
本研究通过调整kappa值(κ)来优化GOS模型的性能。随着κ值的增大,模型的均方根误差(RMSE)逐渐减小,当κ=0.06时,RMSE达到了最低值(图 3),表明与未知位点相似性较高的6% 的样本被用于模型预测,且该κ值能够最有效地减少模型误差,提升预测精度。因此,选择κ=0.06作为最佳参数,以确保模型的最佳性能。模型验证结果显示,GOS模型在测试数据集中的拟合优度为R2=0.66(图 3),并且p值小于0.001,表明GOS模型在土壤抗生素污染的空间预测中具有较好的模拟效果和较高的预测准确性。
通过GOS模型预测,中国农田土壤抗生素含量约为16.9 ng/g(95% 置信区间:6.4~36.6 ng/g)。如图 4所示,揭示了中国农田土壤抗生素含量的空间分布特征,土壤抗生素污染在中国存在显著的空间异质性。大部分地区的土壤抗生素含量较低,主要分布在西部和北部地区,而东部和中部地区的土壤抗生素含量则相对较高,特别是在一些农业集约化程度较高的区域。这些区域的抗生素浓度普遍超过100 ng/g,部分地区甚至超过400 ng/g,尤其是在长江流域、华北平原等地,这些地方受灌溉和有机肥施用量较大影响,表现出较高的污染水平。
在GOS模型的不确定性分析中,随着ζ值的增加,预测结果的不确定性逐渐降低(图 5)。当ζ=0.9时,不确定性平均为6.7%,标准差为13.6%;当ζ=0.95时,不确定性平均为6.0%±13.0%;而当ζ=0.99时,不确定性进一步降低,平均为5.0%±12.0%。这表明,随着相似性阈值的增大,模型的预测结果变得更加精确,尤其在数据丰富和地理相似性较强的区域,预测结果的可靠性显著提高。
情景分析模拟结果显示,随着有机肥施用量和灌溉面积的变化,土壤抗生素含量的均值表现出显著的阈值效应(图 6)。在有机肥施用量变化的情景中,当有机肥施用量增加时,抗生素含量逐渐上升,当其施用量增加90% 时,中国土壤抗生素含量平均可达17.1 ng/g。当有机肥施用量减少约30% 时,土壤抗生素含量保持相对稳定,约为16.8 ng/g。然而,当有机肥施用量减少超过40% 时,抗生素含量迅速下降,显示出强烈的阈值效应,表明合理减少有机肥使用可以有效控制土壤抗生素污染。
在灌溉面积变化的情景中,土壤抗生素含量的变化趋势与有机肥施用量不同。当减少灌溉面积时,土壤抗生素含量变化较为稳定,即灌溉面积变化在−90%~ 60% 时,抗生素含量保持在17.0 ng/g左右;但当灌溉面积增加超过60% 时,抗生素含量急剧上升,其均值可达27.2 ng/g(90% 情景)。结果表明,当农田管理强度超出一定的阈值时,尤其是在过度施肥和灌溉时,土壤抗生素污染将急剧增加,强调了合理控制农田管理措施的重要性。
本研究基于GOS模型,充分考虑不同区域的地理相似性,提供较为精准的土壤抗生素污染预测。与传统的统计分析方法不同,GOS模型通过计算各观测点与目标点之间的相似性[21],将空间信息纳入到预测过程中,从而能够更准确地捕捉到土壤抗生素污染的空间异质性。通过该模型,揭示了中国农田土壤抗生素污染的空间分布特征,发现土壤抗生素污染在空间上呈现出明显的区域差异。特别是在农业集约化程度较高的东部和中部地区,土壤抗生素浓度普遍较高,而在西部地区,污染程度相对较低。Lyu等[23]通过对现有研究结果进行总结,并结合空间插值同样发现中国东部沿海地区土壤抗生素含量高于其他地区,与本研究模拟结果较为接近。并且在全球尺度上土壤抗生素抗性的模拟分析结果进一步验证了本结果,在农业集约化区域其土壤含有更高丰度的抗生素抗性基因丰度[2425]。这一发现为评估不同区域土壤污染的风险提供了科学依据,有助于制定区域化、差异化的土壤污染防控政策。此外,GOS模型的不确定性分析也为研究结果的可靠性提供了评估手段,能够识别出预测结果的高不确定性区域,需要在数据稀缺或地理相似性较低的区域加强监测。
本研究同时揭示了农田管理对土壤抗生素污染的阈值效应,即有机肥施用量和灌溉面积等农田管理措施在超过某一临界值时,将导致土壤抗生素污染的显著变化。与当前基础相比,增加有机肥施用量,土壤抗生素含量保持相对平稳的趋势,当有机肥施用量超过某一临界值后,抗生素的输入量可能无法继续有效地在土壤中滞留,因为土壤对于抗生素的容纳是有限度的,其吸附和保留能力受到土壤理化性质(如有机质含量、pH值等)影响[13]。当有机肥施用量减少超过60% 时,土壤抗生素平均含量急剧下降,表明土壤抗生素污染在有机肥施用量的变化过程中具有明显的阈值效应。完全不施用有机肥的情况下,虽然土壤抗生素污染不会来自施肥,但这显然并不可行,因为农田生产的持续性和高产依赖于施肥,特别是在集约化农业生产中。有机肥不仅提供了必需的养分,还可以改善土壤的结构和生物活性[26]。因此,完全停止施肥不仅会影响作物产量,还可能导致土壤质量退化、农田生态系统不稳定等一系列问题。因此,问题的关键不在于是否施肥,而在于施肥的合理性。合理控制施肥量,可以在保障农业产量的同时,减少土壤抗生素污染。
同样,灌溉面积变化也呈现出类似的趋势,灌溉面积增加超过60% 时,土壤抗生素平均含量急剧上升,表明过度灌溉可能是促进土壤抗生素污染的关键因素。因此,在农田管理措施过度或不合理时,土壤抗生素含量会发生剧烈变化,这种现象反映了生态系统的非线性响应机制,即系统在遭受一定强度的干扰后,能够通过微生物降解等自然过程容忍一定程度的变化,但当干扰达到临界点后,超出土壤生态系统的自净能力,导致污染水平急剧变化[27]。Zhou等[28]发现当减少有机肥施用量时,能够显著降低土壤中抗生素抗性。并且在全球尺度上也发现了施肥和灌溉的非线性作用及阈值效应,当灌溉和施肥超过60% 时,其对土壤抗生素抗性的产生造成了显著促进作用[24]。这一阈值效应的发现为政策制定提供了关键依据,尤其在制定土壤抗生素污染防控策略时,能够帮助确定农田管理的临界阈值。例如,在控制土壤抗生素污染时,可以根据不同区域的农业管理强度,确定合理的有机肥施用量和灌溉面积,并避免过度施肥和过量灌溉。通过避免超过农田管理临界值,可以有效减少土壤中抗生素的积累,从而减少对环境和生态系统的负面影响,以达到既保证农业生产效益,又减少土壤抗生素污染的目标,确保农业生产的可持续性与生态环境保护的平衡[7]
尽管本研究提供了重要的科学依据,但仍存在一定的局限性。首先,数据分布的不均衡可能导致一些地区的预测结果存在偏差。其次,未充分考虑气候变化对土壤抗生素污染的影响,气候因素可能会改变抗生素的迁移与降解模式,因此未来研究应当将气候变化纳入模型中进行综合预测。此外,本研究的情景分析主要集中于施肥和灌溉面积,未来可以探索更多的农田管理措施,如不同耕作方式、作物种植结构等对土壤抗生素污染的影响。
本研究首次通过GOS模型,系统探索了中国农田土壤抗生素污染的空间分异规律及农田管理措施的阈值效应。研究结果表明,中国农田土壤抗生素污染呈现显著的区域差异,其中有机肥施用量与灌溉面积是驱动土壤抗生素污染空间分布的关键因素,并且这些因素的影响存在明显的临界值。当有机肥施用量减少超过40% 或灌溉面积增加超过60% 时,土壤抗生素含量将发生非线性变化,表现为显著的增加或减少。通过情景模拟,研究进一步发现,优化施肥量与控制灌溉面积可以有效降低高风险区域的污染负荷,当有机肥施用量减少超过30% 时,土壤抗生素含量从约16.8 ng/g迅速下降至15.5 ng/g左右;而当灌溉面积增加超过60% 时,土壤抗生素含量从约17.0 ng/g增加至约27.2 ng/g。本研究为农业管理政策的优化提供了理论支持,并为制定基于临界值调控的区域差异化防控策略提供了量化的决策依据。特别是在土壤抗生素污染较高的地区,通过合理控制农田管理强度,可以有效降低污染风险,推动绿色农业转型与精准环境治理。
  • 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(C类)(42201121)
  • 云南省西南联合研究生院科技专项(202302AO370012)
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2025年第43卷第12期
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doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2025.02.00228
  • 接收时间:2025-02-25
  • 首发时间:2025-12-16
  • 出版时间:2025-06-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-25
  • 修回日期:2025-04-23
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(C类)(42201121)
云南省西南联合研究生院科技专项(202302AO370012)
作者信息
    1. 云南大学生态与环境学院, 昆明 650500
    2. 中国科学院生态环境研究中心区域与城市生态安全全国重点实验室, 北京 100085
    3. 云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院, 昆明 650500
    4. 西南联合研究生院, 昆明 650092

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陈利顶(通信作者),研究员,研究方向为景观格局与生态过程,电子信箱:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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Genus
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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