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2. Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Xiamen 361021, China
3. Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021, China
4. Xiamen Key Laboratory of Smart Management of Urban Environment, Xiamen 361021, China, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=uuOXj9QJjo2LXFpZv5U6kA==, pdfFileSize=2172950, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1242140774125613284, articleId=1242140772485640407, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=CN, title=碳中和目标下福建省电源结构的优化, columnId=1242140765200134301, journalTitle=科技导报, columnName=专题:生态优先 绿色发展, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=电力清洁化是中国实现“双碳”目标的关键,其核心是电源结构如何优化重构。通过建立多目标优化模型,对比了2060年福建省在3种“最优”情景下的电力能源结构及其特点。结果表明:(1)福建省当前电源结构呈现火电占主导、水电占比逐步降低、核电占比升高、风光能初具规模、生物质能仍待发展的特征;(2)未来若全省形成以清洁能源为主、碳排放较低的能源结构,需将电力装机容量提升至25500万kW,并大幅增加清洁能源和储能设备的部署力度;(3)若以电源结构丰富、配置均衡为目标,需将电力装机容量提升至18000万kW,推动电源结构向多样化发展;(4)若形成以可控能源为主导、稳定性较好的能源结构,则需将装机容量提升至20550万kW,但碳捕获、利用与封存技术(CCUS)部署力度大、费用高。研究发现,CCUS普及率达到82%并每年获得超过2620万t的自然碳汇“配额”是全省构建以清洁能源为主的电源结构并实现电力行业碳中和的关键阈值。, authors=方朝雄1 ,胡臻达1 ,陈晗施2,3 ,张林垚1 ,涂夏哲1 ,刘宇鹏2,4 ,陈伟强2,3* , authorsList=方朝雄,胡臻达,陈晗施,张林垚,涂夏哲,刘宇鹏,陈伟强, authorCompany=1. 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,福州 350012
2. 中国科学院城市环境研究所环境与健康重点实验室,厦门 361021
3. 厦门市城市代谢重点实验室,厦门 361021
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科技导报
| 专题:生态优先 绿色发展 2023, 41(22): 67-76
碳中和目标下福建省电源结构的优化
全屏
方朝雄1 ,胡臻达1 ,陈晗施2,3 ,张林垚1 ,涂夏哲1 ,刘宇鹏2,4 ,陈伟强2,3*
作者信息
1. 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,福州 350012
2. 中国科学院城市环境研究所环境与健康重点实验室,厦门 361021
3. 厦门市城市代谢重点实验室,厦门 361021
4. 厦门市城市环境智慧管理重点实验室,厦门 361021
通讯作者:
陈伟强(通信作者),研究员,研究方向为资源与环境管理、资源安全与可持续发展战略,电子信箱:wqchen@iue.ac.cn
Optimization of power supply structure in Fujian province toward the carbon neutrality target
Affiliations
出版时间: 2023-11-18
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2023.22.009
文章导航
电力清洁化是中国实现“双碳”目标的关键,其核心是电源结构如何优化重构。通过建立多目标优化模型,对比了2060年福建省在3种“最优”情景下的电力能源结构及其特点。结果表明:(1)福建省当前电源结构呈现火电占主导、水电占比逐步降低、核电占比升高、风光能初具规模、生物质能仍待发展的特征;(2)未来若全省形成以清洁能源为主、碳排放较低的能源结构,需将电力装机容量提升至25500万kW,并大幅增加清洁能源和储能设备的部署力度;(3)若以电源结构丰富、配置均衡为目标,需将电力装机容量提升至18000万kW,推动电源结构向多样化发展;(4)若形成以可控能源为主导、稳定性较好的能源结构,则需将装机容量提升至20550万kW,但碳捕获、利用与封存技术(CCUS)部署力度大、费用高。研究发现,CCUS普及率达到82%并每年获得超过2620万t的自然碳汇“配额”是全省构建以清洁能源为主的电源结构并实现电力行业碳中和的关键阈值。
Transition to "cleaner" electricity is crucial to achieving the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China and it depends on structure optimization. In this study, a multi-objective model is established to optimize electricity structure in Fujian province under three carbon sink scenarios in 2060. The results show that: (1) Currently, the thermal power still dominates the electricity generation, the hydropower has peaked, the nuclear power is increasing, and the other sources (e. g., wind, solar, biomass) begin to grow. (2) Under the optimal carbon emission scenario, Fujian province has to increase its installed capacity of electric power to 255 million kilowatts, rapidly develop renewable energy, and widely apply energy storage batteries in 2060. (3) Under the optimal power structure scenario, Fujian province would need to increase its installed capacity of electric power to 180 million kilowatts and form a balanced source of electricity. (4) Under the optimal power structure stability scenario, the installed capacity of electric power merely has to reach 205.5 million kilowatts, but the costs on construction and upgrading of the Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology would be very high. In summary, the coverage of CCUS higher than 82% and the annual natural carbon sink "quota" of electricity sector exceeding 26.2 million tons are two thresholds for Fujian province to form a renewable and "clean" electricity and achieve carbon neutrality in 2060.
carbon neutrality
/
power structure
/
optimization model
/
scenario analysis
方朝雄,胡臻达,陈晗施,张林垚,涂夏哲,刘宇鹏,陈伟强.
碳中和目标下福建省电源结构的优化.
科技导报,
2023
, 41
(22)
: 67
-76
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2023.22.009
FANG Chaoxiong, HU Zhenda, CHEN Hanshi, ZHANG Linyao, TU Xiazhe, LIU Yupeng, CHEN Weiqiang.
Optimization of power supply structure in Fujian province toward the carbon neutrality target[J].
Science & Technology Review ,
2023
, 41
(22)
: 67
-76
.
DOI: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2023.22.009
2023年第41卷第22期
PDF下载
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引用本文
BibTeX
文章信息
doi: 10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2023.22.009
接收时间:2022-06-28
首发时间:2023-12-15
出版时间:2023-11-18
收稿日期:2022-06-28
修回日期:2023-02-27
通讯作者:
陈伟强(通信作者),研究员,研究方向为资源与环境管理、资源安全与可持续发展战略,电子信箱:wqchen@iue.ac.cn
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/kjdb/CN/10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2023.22.009
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科 Family 属数 Number of genus 种数 Number of species 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) 属 Genus 种数 Number of species 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78 小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39 红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87 小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26 光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39 红菇属 Russula 17 8.13 栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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