Article(id=1242140494298428355, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, issueId=1242140485234537368, articleNumber=null, orderNo=6, doi=10.3981/j.issn.1000-7857.2023.11.004, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1666281600000, receivedDateStr=2022-10-21, revisedDate=1676217600000, revisedDateStr=2023-02-13, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1688004571530, onlineDateStr=2023-06-29, pubDate=1686585600000, pubDateStr=2023-06-13, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1688004571530, onlineIssueDateStr=2023-06-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1774078971690, creator=sys-migrate, updateTime=1774078971690, updator=sys-migrate, issue=Issue{id=1242140485234537368, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, year='2023', volume='41', issue='11', pageStart='1', pageEnd='124', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=3, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1774078969531, creator=sys-migrate, updateTime=1774078969531, updator=sys-migrate, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext=null, issueFiles=null}, startPage=41, endPage=51, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1242140498547258336, articleId=1242140494298428355, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=EN, title=Evaluation and prediction of water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity in North China Plain, columnId=1242140493061108672, journalTitle=Science & Technology Review, columnName=Exclusive: Environmental pollution and green development, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=According to the water resources ecological footprint model and system dynamics method, four different scenarios are designed to evaluate and predict the water resources ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of the North China Plain (NCP) in the current years (2000—2018) and future years (2019—2050) based on the construction of water resources utilization SD (system dynamics) model of the NCP. The results show the followings: 1) for the current years, the average values of per capita water resources ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological profit and loss are 0.427, 0.126 and -0.302 hm²/capita, respectively, and the average values of water resources ecological pressure index and ecological economic coordination index are 3.522 and 1.242, respectively. The water resources in the NCP are under excessive pressure and in an unsafe utilization state. The South-to-North Water Transfer Project can alleviate water resources ecological loss in the NCP to a certain extent. 2) in the future, the average values of per capita water resources ecological footprint under the four scenarios will be 0.392, 0.430, 0.329 and 0.359 hm²/capita, respectively, and the average values of per capita water resources ecological carrying capacity will be 0.121, 0.121, 0.121 and 0.120 hm²/capita, respectively, resulting in per capita water resources ecological losses of 0.271, 0.309, 0.208 and 0.239 hm²/capita. The average values of water resources ecological pressure indexes and ecological economic coordination indexes under the four scenarios will be 3.240, 3.571, 2.734 and 3.011, and 1.251, 1.235, 1.283 and 1.266, respectively. The water resources utilization pressure in the NCP in the future will be large and in an unsafe state. 3) from 2019 to 2050, the pressure and the state of unsafe utilization of water resources will continue in the NCP. Scenario NS4 can not only ensure economic development but also reduce the degree of water resources unsafe utilization, which is a development scenario that should be considered in the NCP in the future. However, it is necessary to promote applications of various water saving measures and technologies and improve water efficiency of various departments. Only in this way can the sustainable utilization of water resources be realized., correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=t/Wycpy2KeQlX3IYZixiVw==, pdfFileSize=4518957, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=1. State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China
2. School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China, fund=null, authors=QIN Huanhuan^1,2, authorsList=QIN Huanhuan), CN=ArticleExt(id=1242140497171521946, articleId=1242140494298428355, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, language=CN, title=华北平原水资源生态足迹与生态承载力评估, columnId=1242140490116707244, journalTitle=科技导报, columnName=专题：环境污染与绿色发展, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=根据水资源生态足迹模型和系统动力学方法，通过构建华北平原水资源利用 SD 模型，设计4种不同情景，对2000―2018年和2019―2050年华北平原水资源生态足迹和生态承载力进行评价与预测。结果表明：（1）对于现状年份，人均水资源生态足迹、生态承载力和生态盈亏均值分别为 0.427、0.126和-0.302 hm²/人，水资源生态压力指数和生态经济协调指数均值分别为 3.522和 1.242；华北平原水资源压力过大，处于不安全利用状态，南水北调工程对华北平原水资源生态亏损有一定的缓解作用。（2）对于未来年份，4种情景下人均水资源生态足迹均值分别为0.392、0.430、0.329和0.359 hm²/人，人均水资源生态承载力均值分别为 0.121、0.121、0.121 和 0.120 hm²/人，人均水资源生态亏损分别为 0.271、0.309、0.208 和0.239 hm²/人；水资源生态压力指数分别为 3.240、3.571、2.734和 3.011，生态经济协调指数均值分别为1.251、1.235、1.283和1.266，华北平原未来水资源利用压力较大，处于不安全状态。（3）2019―2050年水资源压力和不安全利用状态将持续，情景NS4既能保证经济发展，也能降低水资源不安全利用程度，是华北平原未来应采用的情景，但需加大各种节水措施和技术的应用，提高各部门的用水效率，多管齐下，才能保证水资源的可持续利用。, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=秦欢欢，副教授，研究方向为水文学与水资源，电子信箱：qhhasn@126.com, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=7zucBXUpiYin2wfaZ2ulhQ==, pdfFileSize=4518957, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=1. 东华理工大学核资源与环境国家重点实验室，南昌 330013
2. 东华理工大学水资源与环境工程学院，南昌 330013, fund=东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目（DHBK2016104）, authors=秦欢欢^1,2, authorsList=秦欢欢)}, authors=null, keywords=[Keyword(id=1242140496655622548, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1242140494298428355, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=水资源生态足迹), Keyword(id=1242140496747897238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1242140494298428355, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=水资源生态承载力), Keyword(id=1242140496819200407, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1242140494298428355, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=可持续水资源利用), Keyword(id=1242140496907280792, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1242140494298428355, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=系统动力学), Keyword(id=1242140496991166873, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031591421210625, articleId=1242140494298428355, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=华北平原), Keyword(id=1242140498085884890, 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