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Article(id=1210620765884511228, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, issueId=1210620759618220989, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.12.010, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1697040000000, receivedDateStr=2023-10-12, revisedDate=1705507200000, revisedDateStr=2024-01-18, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1766564082832, onlineDateStr=2025-12-24, pubDate=1734624000000, pubDateStr=2024-12-20, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1766564082832, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-12-24, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1766564082832, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1766564082832, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1210620759618220989, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, year='2024', volume='57', issue='12', pageStart='1', pageEnd='136', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1766564081339, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1766564115162, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1210620901540885345, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, issueId=1210620759618220989, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1210620901540885346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, issueId=1210620759618220989, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=74, endPage=81, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1210620766228443144, articleId=1210620765884511228, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, language=EN, title=Multi-parameter correlation analysis of alkylbenzene insulating oil during thermal ageing, columnId=1190369198472794288, journalTitle=Insulating Materials, columnName=Insulation Technology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to investigate the influence of copper and insulating paper on the properties of alkylbenzene insulating oil inside oil-filled high-voltage cables, alkylbenzene insulating oil was placed in four different environments and subjected to a thermal ageing experiment at 120℃ for 50 days. Ageing characteristic parameters of oil sample such as acid value, dielectric loss factor, interfacial tension, and water content were measured during the ageing process, and the correlation between the four indicators was studied using regression analysis. The results show that as the ageing time increases, the ageing degree of oil sample intensifies, copper accelerats the ageing of alkylbenzene insulating oil, while insulating paper has no significant effect on the ageing of the oil. The dielectric loss factor of insulating oil is positively correlated with its acid value and water content, and negatively correlated with interfacial tension, both of which are exponential functions. The regression fitting equation is y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0, and the goodness of fit is greater than 0.94. In the results of multiple linear regression, there is a common constraint relationship between the dielectric loss factor, acid value, interfacial tension, and water content.

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为研究充油高压电缆内部铜和绝缘纸对烷基苯绝缘油性能的影响，将烷基苯绝缘油置于4种不同环境中，在120℃的条件下进行50天热老化实验，测定老化过程中油样酸值、介质损耗因数、界面张力、水含量等老化特征参量，并采用回归分析法研究4个指标之间的关联性。结果表明：随老化时间增加，油样老化程度加剧，其中铜加快了烷基苯绝缘油的老化，绝缘纸对烷基苯绝缘油的老化无明显作用；绝缘油的介质损耗因数与其酸值、水含量呈正相关性，与界面张力呈负相关，且均呈指数函数关系，其回归拟合方程为y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0，拟合优度大于0.94；多元线性回归结果中介质损耗因数与酸值、界面张力、水含量存在共同制约关系。

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汪红梅（1971-），女（汉族），湖北孝感人，副教授，主要从事电力化学及多功能材料的研究。
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廖建平（1983-），男（汉族），江西赣州人，高级工程师，主要从事绝缘油的测试与分析工作。

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廖建平（1983-），男（汉族），江西赣州人，高级工程师，主要从事绝缘油的测试与分析工作。

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廖建平（1983-），男（汉族），江西赣州人，高级工程师，主要从事绝缘油的测试与分析工作。

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Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2021,17(7):60-64., articleTitle=Study on liquid accumulation and corrosion characteristics of pipelines in a single well station, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1218964346256937834, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, awardId=CGYKJXM20220080, language=CN, fundingSource=南方电网超高压输电公司科技项目(CGYKJXM20220080), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1218964346357601135, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, awardId=23A0269, language=CN, fundingSource=湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(23A0269), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1218964337637642717, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1218964337641837022, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, companyId=1218964337637642717, language=EN, 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项目烷基苯油
外观无色透明，无悬浮物和沉淀物
运动黏度(40℃)/(mm2/s)4.213
闪点(闭口)/℃135
酸值/(mg(KOH)/g)7.8×10-3
介质损耗因数（90℃）7.4×10-4
击穿电压/kV59.7
), ArticleFig(id=1218964345325802299, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

烷基苯油的特性

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目烷基苯油
外观无色透明，无悬浮物和沉淀物
运动黏度(40℃)/(mm2/s)4.213
闪点(闭口)/℃135
酸值/(mg(KOH)/g)7.8×10-3
介质损耗因数（90℃）7.4×10-4
击穿电压/kV59.7
), ArticleFig(id=1218964345430659905, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=Oil samples combination for heat ageing, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
编号用于热老化试验的油样
A烷基苯油
AKC烷基苯油+绝缘纸+铜
AK烷基苯油+绝缘纸
AC烷基苯油+铜
), ArticleFig(id=1218964345556489029, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

用于热老化的油样组合

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
编号用于热老化试验的油样
A烷基苯油
AKC烷基苯油+绝缘纸+铜
AK烷基苯油+绝缘纸
AC烷基苯油+铜
), ArticleFig(id=1218964345665540941, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=Copper ion content in insulating oil and oil sludge, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
名称稀释后浓度/(mg/L)稀释倍数微波消解/g定容体积/mL铜离子含量/(mg/L)
绝缘油2.13311.0042553.113
油泥3.4952000.7092524 626.550
), ArticleFig(id=1218964345770398543, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

绝缘油和油泥中的铜离子含量

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
名称稀释后浓度/(mg/L)稀释倍数微波消解/g定容体积/mL铜离子含量/(mg/L)
绝缘油2.13311.0042553.113
油泥3.4952000.7092524 626.550
), ArticleFig(id=1218964345833313107, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=Correlation between dielectric loss factor and other parameters, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
被分析参量相关系数r
不含铜油样含铜油样
介质损耗因数和酸值0.9900.962
介质损耗因数和界面张力-0.665-0.890
介质损耗因数和水含量0.9680.645
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介质损耗因数与其他参量的相关性

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
被分析参量相关系数r
不含铜油样含铜油样
介质损耗因数和酸值0.9900.962
介质损耗因数和界面张力-0.665-0.890
介质损耗因数和水含量0.9680.645
), ArticleFig(id=1218964345975919453, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=The goodness of fit for each regression model, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
被分析参量R2
不含铜油样含铜油样
介质损耗因数和酸值0.9780.971
介质损耗因数和界面张力0.9470.958
介质损耗因数和水含量0.9410.355
), ArticleFig(id=1218964346068194146, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149653034449285133, articleId=1210620765884511228, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

各回归模型的拟合优度

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被分析参量R2
不含铜油样含铜油样
介质损耗因数和酸值0.9780.971
介质损耗因数和界面张力0.9470.958
介质损耗因数和水含量0.9410.355
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烷基苯绝缘油热老化过程中的多参量关联性分析
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廖建平 1 , 刘志峰 1 , 杨小爱 2 , 高帆 1 , 陈宇飞 1 , 徐永烨 1 , 汪红梅 2 , 朱志平 2
绝缘材料 | 绝缘技术 2024,57(12): 74-81
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绝缘材料 | 绝缘技术 2024, 57(12): 74-81
烷基苯绝缘油热老化过程中的多参量关联性分析
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廖建平1, 刘志峰1, 杨小爱2, 高帆1, 陈宇飞1, 徐永烨1, 汪红梅2, 朱志平2
作者信息
  • 1南方电网超高压输电公司电力科研院，广东 广州 510663
  • 2长沙理工大学 电力与交通材料防护湖南省重点实验室，湖南 长沙 410114

    • 廖建平（1983-），男（汉族），江西赣州人，高级工程师，主要从事绝缘油的测试与分析工作。

通讯作者:

汪红梅（1971-），女（汉族），湖北孝感人，副教授，主要从事电力化学及多功能材料的研究。
Multi-parameter correlation analysis of alkylbenzene insulating oil during thermal ageing
Jianping LIAO1, Zhifeng LIU1, Xiaoai YANG2, Fan GAO1, Yufei CHEN1, Yongye XU1, Hongmei WANG2, Zhiping ZHU2
Affiliations
  • 1Electric Power Research Institute of EHV Transmission Company, China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510663, China
  • 2Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Materials Protection for Electric Power and Transportation, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China
出版时间: 2024-12-20 doi: 10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.12.010
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摘要
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为研究充油高压电缆内部铜和绝缘纸对烷基苯绝缘油性能的影响，将烷基苯绝缘油置于4种不同环境中，在120℃的条件下进行50天热老化实验，测定老化过程中油样酸值、介质损耗因数、界面张力、水含量等老化特征参量，并采用回归分析法研究4个指标之间的关联性。结果表明：随老化时间增加，油样老化程度加剧，其中铜加快了烷基苯绝缘油的老化，绝缘纸对烷基苯绝缘油的老化无明显作用；绝缘油的介质损耗因数与其酸值、水含量呈正相关性，与界面张力呈负相关，且均呈指数函数关系，其回归拟合方程为y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0，拟合优度大于0.94；多元线性回归结果中介质损耗因数与酸值、界面张力、水含量存在共同制约关系。

烷基苯绝缘油  /  热老化  /  相关性  /  回归分析

In order to investigate the influence of copper and insulating paper on the properties of alkylbenzene insulating oil inside oil-filled high-voltage cables, alkylbenzene insulating oil was placed in four different environments and subjected to a thermal ageing experiment at 120℃ for 50 days. Ageing characteristic parameters of oil sample such as acid value, dielectric loss factor, interfacial tension, and water content were measured during the ageing process, and the correlation between the four indicators was studied using regression analysis. The results show that as the ageing time increases, the ageing degree of oil sample intensifies, copper accelerats the ageing of alkylbenzene insulating oil, while insulating paper has no significant effect on the ageing of the oil. The dielectric loss factor of insulating oil is positively correlated with its acid value and water content, and negatively correlated with interfacial tension, both of which are exponential functions. The regression fitting equation is y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0, and the goodness of fit is greater than 0.94. In the results of multiple linear regression, there is a common constraint relationship between the dielectric loss factor, acid value, interfacial tension, and water content.

alkylbenzene insulating oil  /  thermal ageing  /  correlation  /  regression analysis
廖建平, 刘志峰, 杨小爱, 高帆, 陈宇飞, 徐永烨, 汪红梅, 朱志平. 烷基苯绝缘油热老化过程中的多参量关联性分析. 绝缘材料, 2024 , 57 (12) : 74 -81 . DOI: 10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.12.010
Jianping LIAO, Zhifeng LIU, Xiaoai YANG, Fan GAO, Yufei CHEN, Yongye XU, Hongmei WANG, Zhiping ZHU. Multi-parameter correlation analysis of alkylbenzene insulating oil during thermal ageing[J]. Insulating Materials, 2024 , 57 (12) : 74 -81 . DOI: 10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.12.010
正文
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0 引言
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在海底电缆、过江电缆等应用中，超高压、大容量充油电缆仍然扮演着不可或缺的角色。超高压充油电缆以烷基苯油作为绝缘介质，但随着运行时间延长，绝缘油会发生老化分解，导致理化电气性能变差，影响充油电缆的安全稳定运行。廖建平等[1-2]综述了海底电缆用烷基苯绝缘油在理化特性、电气性能、老化性能以及生物毒性方面的特点，研究实验室加速劣化及其产气的规律，发现H2和C2H2是烷基苯绝缘油的特征气体。I L HOSIER等[3-4]在4个温度下将十二烷基苯电缆油放置于空气、氮气及含有各种添加材料（铜、铝、绝缘纸）的条件下进行热老化。采用光学、介电分析技术分析，结果发现高温对烷基苯油的老化有加速作用，其在空气中的老化程度远大于氮气下的老化程度，铜是形成油泥的主要原因。烷基苯油的老化指标是其固有特性的客观反映，且含有关于电缆故障的信息，各项老化指标之间存在着内在联系。目前关于烷基苯绝缘油老化参量之间的相关性研究较少[5-6]。
从多参量的角度研究绝缘油理化特性与电气性能之间的关系，可用多元线性回归模型建立绝缘油老化的方程，以此作为参量预测和判断运行油质量。宋斌等[7]采用多元线性回归方法分别建立了介质损耗因数（tanδ）和含水量等性能指标与时间函数关系模型。韩慧慧等[8]建立了变压器油中绝缘纸聚合度和糠醛的质量浓度、酸值等指标的多元线性回归关系。王文森等[9]利用主成分分析和偏最小二乘法构建油中溶解气体等多个指标关联关系，可用于检查变压器的异常运行状态。
油品劣化后，油质氧化生成酸性物质导致酸值增大，其中产生的脂肪酸（-COOH）、醇（-OH）等极性亲水基团和憎水的非极性基团（-R）会影响油水两相交界面上的分子定向排列状况。油中水分含量与油品的化学组成、劣化后的氧化产物有关。一般地，芳香烃较烷烃和环烷烃的溶解水能力比较强[10]，而烷基苯绝缘油中芳香烃含量高，因此油品本身吸水性强。加之油品劣化后产生的氧化产物如醇、醛、酮、酸等在一定条件下进行聚合、缩合等反应，生成树脂、沥青质等也会增加油的吸湿性。而水分和氧化产物均会增大油的电导电流，对介质损耗因数影响明显。绝缘油的老化参量之间相互影响，具有一定相关性[11]，例如介质损耗因数、酸值、界面张力、含水量是评估烷基苯绝缘油性能的4个重要指标，探讨4个特征参量的关联性，对于提升绝缘油运行监督水平及充油电缆故障检测有重要意义。
参照变压器绝缘油的研究状况，本文设计烷基苯绝缘油与普通绝缘纸、金属铜组成的4种试样，在120℃的条件下进行50天热老化实验，测定老化过程中绝缘油酸值、介质损耗因数、含水量、界面张力等老化特征参量变化值，分析四者的关联性，以期为烷基苯油的运行监督提供一定理论指导。
1 试验
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1.1 原材料和仪器
原材料：烷基苯绝缘油，江苏泰荣绝缘材料有限公司；绝缘纸为普通牛皮纸，友达绝缘材料有限公司；金属铜为T2软紫铜丝，上海时锡贸易有限公司。
主要仪器：YP1001N型电子天平，上海菁海仪器有限公司；J-5型微量水分仪，大庆日上仪器制造有限公司；ZHZ501型张力全自动测定仪，山东中惠仪器有限公司；AI-6000型油介损电阻率测量仪，济南泛华仪器设备有限公司；AA-6300型原子吸收光谱仪，日本岛津公司。
1.2 试验方法
1.2.1 绝缘油老化试验
将试验用油分装为380 g/份，放入500 mL磨口试剂瓶中。绝缘纸尺寸为23.8 cm×6 cm×1 mm（质量为1.6 g），铜丝长9.04 m，直径为1 mm（质量为63.5 g）。将绝缘纸和铜丝放入油中，置于真空干燥箱在60℃、-0.1 MPa的条件下除水24 h，再一起放入120℃的烘箱中进行加速老化试验，间隔3～5天测定样品的老化性能指标。所用烷基苯绝缘油理化特性如表1所示，用于热老化的4组试样组合如表2所示，每组试样准备两瓶样品一起老化。
1.2.2 理化及电气性能检测
酸值测试参照GB/T 28552—2012进行，称取8～10 g老化油样，加入50 mL无水乙醇，在80～85℃的恒温水浴锅中冷凝回流5 min。以溴百里香酚蓝（BTB）作为指示剂，用0.02～0.05 mol/L的KOH-乙醇溶液滴定至溶液颜色突变，记录消耗溶液体积，平行测定两次。介质损耗因数测试参照GB/T 5654—2007进行，用石油醚清洗电极杯和电极。取10 mL油样注入电极杯中直至电极杯溢油，选择3次自动测定模式，仪器升温至90℃后，读取介质损耗因数值。油中水分含量测试参照GB/T 7600—2014进行，取1 mL待测油样注入电解池中，水分仪自动开始电解，电解至终点时，记录仪器数据。界面张力测试参照GB/T 6541—1986进行，利用纯水标定界面张力仪，将待测油样缓慢倒入装有纯水的界面张力杯中测定油界面张力值，重复测样两次。油和油泥中的铜金属含量测试参照DL/T 1458—2015进行，对样品进行微波消解，配制溶液，在原子吸收光谱仪上测定空白溶液和样品溶液，绘制标准曲线，计算出样品溶液中的铜含量。
2 结果与讨论
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2.1 油样理化特性与性能参数随老化时间的变化
2.1.1 颜色
颜色是可肉眼观察、反映油质氧化程度的重要参照。不同老化时间下油样的颜色如图1所示。
从图1可以看出，随着老化时间增加，油样颜色从无色透明逐渐变黄，甚至变黑。其中AKC、AC老化后颜色比A、AK的颜色深，且在120℃下老化11天后开始产生油泥，而A、AK始终未产生油泥。AK外观颜色与A的颜色无差异，表明在本实验室条件下绝缘纸对油品的影响不大。含铜油样的老化程度均比无铜油样的老化程度深，说明铜对油品有显著影响，会加速烷基苯油的老化反应[12-13]。随着老化时间延长，各油品老化程度加深。
2.1.2 酸值
酸值是直接反映油质氧化程度的主要参数。各油样在不同老后时间下的酸值如图2所示。从图2可知，A、AKC、AK、AC油样老化后的酸值随热老化时间的增加呈上升趋势。在120℃热老化过程中，老化至11天前，AKC和AC油样均未产生油泥，4组油样的酸值相差不大。老化至第11天后，含铜油样AKC、AC开始产生油泥，此后A和AK油样的酸值逐渐大于相同热老化时间下AKC和AC的酸值。这是因为油样劣化后，油质会产生酸性物质，该酸性组分多为有机酸，其中羧酸会与铜反应生成羧酸铜盐[14]，这些产物可以加速油的老化[15]，导致烷基苯油更容易变质。因此AKC、AC老化后期酸值降低，导致了A、AK、AKC、AC油样之间酸值的差异。
用原子吸收光谱进一步确定老化油和油泥中铜金属的含量，对AC在120℃下老化48天得到的油和油泥进行原子吸收测试，测试结果如表3所示。
表3结果表明油和油泥中均含有铜离子，油泥中的铜含量约为油中铜含量的460倍。由此说明烷基苯绝缘油中有机酸腐蚀铜金属生成了羧酸铜盐，而溶解在烷基苯绝缘油中的羧酸铜盐继续加速油的老化，增加沉淀物的生成。
2.1.3 水含量
油中水分主要是由外部侵入和油自身氧化产生。油样在120℃下热老化后产生的水含量如图3所示。由图3可知，随着老化时间增加，A和AK水分含量逐渐增大，AKC和AC水分含量呈波动趋势，这可能是由水的生成速率和蒸发速率以及水在老化油中的溶解度共同决定。在初始老化阶段，油中生成的产物结构能以化学结合或溶解的形式吸收水[16]，加之油品老化本身产生水，进而导致水含量增加。随着老化进入中期，水分的减少可能是由蒸发或空气湿度的变化导致的[17]。在老化50天后，不含铜油样A和AK的水含量分别约为225 μg/mL和200 μg/mL，高于AKC、AC的水含量，主要原因是AKC、AC油中生成的酸性物质与铜反应生成羧酸铜盐消耗了油中部分水分。
2.1.4 介质损耗因数
介质损耗因数（tanδ）反映了油质是否受导电污染物和极性产物的影响。tanδ越大，绝缘油的介质损耗能量越大。油样在90℃、50 Hz下的tanδ随老化时间的变化如图4所示。从图4可见，随老化时间增加，含有铜丝的油样AC、AKC tanδ逐渐增大，不含铜丝的油样A、AK tanδ曲线增长则较为平缓，含铜油样的tanδ远大于不含铜油样。其中A和AK的tanδ最高增大10%，而AKC和AC的tanδ最高增大100%左右，此结果证实了烷基苯绝缘油老化产物增多，tanδ会随之增大，铜丝对烷基苯绝缘油老化有加速作用。
2.1.5 界面张力
界面张力反映油中亲水性极性分子的总和，可用来判断油质的老化程度。120℃下老化后油样界面张力测试结果如图5所示。由图5可知，油样界面张力随着老化时间增加而下降，老化15天时界面张力下降至16～20 mN/m，这是由于油质老化后产生各种有机酸、醇、醛及酮等极性分子，油中绝缘纸经老化后生成糠醛等极性物质，两者均影响油水界面的定向排列，最终导致其界面张力逐渐下降。
综上分析，烷基苯绝缘油老化后会不断生成醇、酮、酸类产物等极性物质，油中酸类产物增多导致酸值增大，极性产物增多导致界面张力不断减小及水含量变化，进一步影响介质损耗因数。因此烷基苯油的介质损耗因数与酸值、水含量、界面张力之间存在一定的相关性[18-19]。鉴于绝缘纸对烷基苯绝缘油的影响小于铜丝的影响，将4个环境中的烷基苯油样分成不含铜和含铜油样两类，对4个老化指标进行回归分析，探讨其中的相关性。
2.2 回归分析
2.2.1 Correl函数介绍
Correl函数本身用于统计学，目的是确定X和Y两组数据的相关性，若相关系数r=1，说明两组数据严格正相关；若r=0则说明不相关[20]；|r|<0.4为低线性相关；0.4≤|r|<0.7为显著线性相关；0.7≤|r|<1为高度线性相关，Correl函数表达如式（1）所示。
Correl(X,Y)=∑(x-x¯)(y-y¯)∑(x-x¯)2∑(y-y¯)2
式（1）中：X，Y分别为数据组；x，y分别为数据点；x¯，y¯分别为数据组的平均值。
利用Correl函数进一步确定4个理化及电气性能参数之间的相关性，结果如表4所示。由表4得出，油样在120℃下老化50天后的介质损耗因数与酸值、水含量呈现正相关，与界面张力呈现负相关。其中介质损耗因数与酸值的r值最高，介于0.7～1，呈现高度线性相关。同理得出介质损耗因数与界面张力、水含量之间的相关程度，可用回归模型进行回归分析。
2.2.2 介质损耗因数与酸值的相关性
两种油样的介质损耗因数和酸值的拟合关系如图6所示。由图6可知，烷基苯绝缘油的介质损耗因数与酸值呈现正相关，且为指数函数关系（y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0）。随着老化程度增加，油中极性产物增多，所含的有机酸性物质含量增加，导致酸值增大。同时有机酸类物质等在电场的作用下会增大绝缘油的电导电流，因此介质损耗因数也会增大。
2.2.3 介质损耗因数与界面张力的相关性
两种油样的介质损耗因数和界面张力的拟合关系如图7所示。由图7可知，烷基苯绝缘油的介质损耗因数与界面张力呈现负相关，且为指数函数关系（y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0）。这是因为受油中羰基极性产物及油中酸性或中性氧化产物的影响，油水界面排列改变，使油品界面张力逐渐减小。与此同时，因绝缘油的体积电阻率对油的离子传导损耗敏感，油中酸性或中性氧化物的存在会降低绝缘油的体积电阻率，从而使介质损耗因数不断增大。
2.2.4 介质损耗因数与水含量的相关性
不含铜油样的介质损耗因数和水分的拟合关系如图8所示。由图8可知，不含铜油样的介质损耗因数和水含量呈指数函数关系（y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0）。油品老化后，油中含水量不断增加，老化产生的极性物质能以化学结合或溶解的形式吸收水分，使得含水量增大，加之水分子极性大，影响了介质损耗因数数值大小。含铜油样的介质损耗因数和水含量的拟合优度（R2）为0.355，分散程度高，两者关系并不显著。
综上，图6～8均表明了烷基苯绝缘油老化后，其介质损耗因数和酸值、界面张力、水含量呈指数函数关系（y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0），各模型拟合优度如表5所示。由表5可知，除含铜油样的介质损耗因数和水含量的指数回归模型R2=0.355外，其他指数回归模型的R2均在0.94以上，可以较好地拟合介质损耗因数和其他3个参量之间的关系。
2.2.5 多参数关联分析
将各参量进行多元线性回归，进一步确定介质损耗因数和酸值、界面张力、水含量的共同制约关系。由图6～8的拟合关系得出，介质损耗因数和其他3个参量间形成指数函数关系，因此将方程y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0两边取对数，可将介质损耗因数和其他3个参量的指数函数关系线性化，得到多元线性方程，如式（2）所示。
y=b0+b1x1+b2x2+b3x3
式（2）中：x1、x2、x3分别代表自变量酸值、界面张力、水含量；y代表因变量介质损耗因数。进一步可得到式（3）。
lny=a0+a1x1+a2x2+a3x3
式（3）中：a0为常数项；a1、a2、a3为回归系数。
利用SPSS进行多元线性回归计算可得到a0、a1、a2、a3，由此得到不含铜油样的多元线性方程为lny=0.998+0.254x1-0.077x2+0.004x3，R2=0.907；含铜油样的多元线性方程为lny=6.771-0.222x1-0.188x2，R2=0.888。
3 结论
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本文研究了烷基苯绝缘油老化后的介质损耗因数、酸值、界面张力和水含量的变化规律及参量之间的关系，初步建立了介质损耗因数与酸值、界面张力、水含量间的回归模型，得到主要结论如下：
（1）烷基苯绝缘油在120℃下进行老化，随着老化时间延长，油样的颜色变黄甚至变黑，介质损耗因数和酸值增大，界面张力减小；不含铜油样水含量增加，含铜油样水含量呈波动趋势。铜会加快烷基苯绝缘油的老化，而绝缘纸对烷基苯油的老化无明显作用。
（2）在热老化过程中，油样的介质损耗因数与酸值、水含量呈正相关，与界面张力呈负相关；介质损耗因数与酸值、水含量、界面张力呈指数函数关系，其回归拟合方程为y=A1·exp(±x/t1)+y0，除含铜油样的介质损耗因数和水含量的指数回归模型R2=0.355外，其余指数回归模型R2大于0.94。
（3）利用多元线性分析得出热老化过程中烷基苯绝缘油的介质损耗因数与其他参量的共同制约关系，不含铜油样的多元线性方程为lny=0.998+0.254x1-0.077x2+0.004x3，R2=0.907；含铜油样的多元线性方程为lny=6.771-0.222x1-0.188x2，R2=0.888。
本文仅在实验室中研究，且选取老化特征参量及样本数量有限，与实际运行烷基苯油老化的情况有差距，后期建议增加样本数量，尤其是运行现场油样，提高老化特征参量拟合关系的有效性。
基金
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  • 南方电网超高压输电公司科技项目(CGYKJXM20220080)
  • 湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(23A0269)
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2024年第57卷第12期
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文章信息
doi: 10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.12.010
  • 接收时间：2023-10-12
  • 首发时间：2025-12-24
  • 出版时间：2024-12-20
补充材料
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出版历史
  • 收稿日期：2023-10-12
  • 修回日期：2024-01-18
基金
南方电网超高压输电公司科技项目(CGYKJXM20220080)
湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目(23A0269)
作者信息
    1南方电网超高压输电公司电力科研院，广东 广州 510663
    2长沙理工大学 电力与交通材料防护湖南省重点实验室，湖南 长沙 410114

通讯作者:

汪红梅（1971-），女（汉族），湖北孝感人，副教授，主要从事电力化学及多功能材料的研究。
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/jycl/CN/10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.12.010
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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