Article(id=1241686768806850793, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, issueId=1241686759470329942, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2025.09.023, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1739548800000, receivedDateStr=2025-02-15, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773970795108, onlineDateStr=2026-03-20, pubDate=1757865600000, pubDateStr=2025-09-15, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773970795108, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-20, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773970795108, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773970795108, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241686759470329942, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, year='2025', volume='47', issue='9', pageStart='1', pageEnd='249', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773970792882, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773970911747, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241687258093375901, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, issueId=1241686759470329942, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241687258093375902, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, issueId=1241686759470329942, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=233, endPage=240, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241686769121423608, articleId=1241686768806850793, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, language=EN, title=Bearing remaining useful life prediction method based on a hybrid Wiener-ANN model, columnId=null, journalTitle=Journal of Mechanical Strength, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Bearings, as critical rotating components in precision instruments, directly affect the safety and stability of the system. Therefore, accurate prediction of their remaining useful life (RUL) is crucial. Existing RUL prediction methods for bearings can be classified into two types: physical model-based and data-driven approaches. Physical models offer high interpretability and require fewer samples but suffer from low prediction accuracy and cannot be used for online prediction.Data-driven methods, on the other hand, provide higher accuracy and support online prediction but require large amounts of data and have poor generalization ability under varying operating conditions or between different equipment. To address these limitations, a Wiener-ANN hybrid model is proposed for bearing RUL prediction, combining the advantages of both physical models and data-driven approaches. The model optimizes the Wiener process using time-frequency domain features as multi-source input data for the first-stage prediction. Subsequently, a three-layer artificial neural network (ANN) is trained using the first-stage prediction results to optimize the model. The optimized Wiener model is then combined with the ANN to predict the RUL of the test dataset. Comparisons with traditional Wiener models and ANN methods show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms these methods in prediction accuracy and application performance, demonstrating strong potential for engineering applications.

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WEN Long, E-mail:
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轴承作为精密仪器中的关键旋转部件,其运行状态直接影响系统的安全性和稳定性,因此准确预测轴承剩余使用寿命尤为重要。现有的轴承剩余寿命预测方法可分为物理模型类和数据驱动类。物理模型方法具有较高的可解释性,所需样本量少,但预测精度较低,且不能在线预测;数据驱动方法则具有较高的预测精度和在线预测能力,但需要大量历史样本数据。为此,提出了结合物理模型和数据驱动方法的混合Wiener过程-人工神经网络(Wiener-Artificial Neural Network,Wiener-ANN)模型用于轴承剩余使用寿命预测。该模型通过时频域特征作为多源输入数据优化Wiener过程模型,使用优化后的模型进行第1阶段预测。随后,构建一个以第1阶段预测结果作为训练数据优化的三层ANN,将优化后的Wiener模型与ANN联合用于测试数据集的剩余寿命预测。与传统Wiener模型和ANN方法的预测结果对比表明,该方法在预测精度和应用性能上具有显著优势,具有较好的工程应用价值。

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文龙,男,1988年生,湖北孝感人,教授,博士研究生导师;主要研究方向为人工智能、装备状态检测与诊断;E-mail:
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叶新,男,2000年生,湖北仙桃人,在读硕士研究生;主要研究方向为人工智能、模式识别等;E-mail:

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叶新,男,2000年生,湖北仙桃人,在读硕士研究生;主要研究方向为人工智能、模式识别等;E-mail:

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language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

Parameters of RUL prediction model

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频段Frequency band失效阈值
Failure threshold V
权重参数
Weight parameter W
频段1 Frequency band 150208.523 4
频段2 Frequency band 220.007 4
频段3 Frequency band 31.5819.097 8
频段4 Frequency band 4100.140 7
频段5 Frequency band 545298.207 4
), ArticleFig(id=1241810809823761208, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, articleId=1241686768806850793, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

RUL预测模型参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
频段Frequency band失效阈值
Failure threshold V
权重参数
Weight parameter W
频段1 Frequency band 150208.523 4
频段2 Frequency band 220.007 4
频段3 Frequency band 31.5819.097 8
频段4 Frequency band 4100.140 7
频段5 Frequency band 545298.207 4
), ArticleFig(id=1241810809941201727, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, articleId=1241686768806850793, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Training parameters of BP network

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训练参数Training parameter数值Value
训练步数Training step1 000
学习率Learning rate lr0.000 1
), ArticleFig(id=1241810810020893512, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, articleId=1241686768806850793, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

BP网络训练参数

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训练参数Training parameter数值Value
训练步数Training step1 000
学习率Learning rate lr0.000 1
), ArticleFig(id=1241810810100585292, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, articleId=1241686768806850793, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

Comparison of the average relative error

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方法
Method
平均相对误差
Average relative error/%
待定参数量
Number of parameters to be determined
Wiener模型+时域单特征
Wiener model + time domain single feature
54.806
Wiener模型+时域多特征
Wiener model + time domain multiple features
22.5010
人工神经网络+小波分解
Artificial neural network + wavelet decomposition
30.528
Wiener模型+人工神经网络+小波分解
Wiener model + artificial neural network + wavelet decomposition
15.2113
), ArticleFig(id=1241810810192859985, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999626482147330, articleId=1241686768806850793, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

平均相对误差对比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
方法
Method
平均相对误差
Average relative error/%
待定参数量
Number of parameters to be determined
Wiener模型+时域单特征
Wiener model + time domain single feature
54.806
Wiener模型+时域多特征
Wiener model + time domain multiple features
22.5010
人工神经网络+小波分解
Artificial neural network + wavelet decomposition
30.528
Wiener模型+人工神经网络+小波分解
Wiener model + artificial neural network + wavelet decomposition
15.2113
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基于混合Wiener-ANN模型的轴承剩余使用寿命预测方法
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叶新 1 , 苏少权 2 , 尚伟 3 , 杨帆 1 , 文龙 2, 4
机械强度 | 2025,47(9): 233-240
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机械强度 | 2025, 47(9): 233-240
基于混合Wiener-ANN模型的轴承剩余使用寿命预测方法
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叶新1 , 苏少权2, 尚伟3, 杨帆1, 文龙2, 4
作者信息
  • 1.武汉工程大学 电气信息学院,武汉 430205
  • 2.中国地质大学(武汉) 机械与电子信息学院,武汉 430074
  • 3.中铁科工集团装备工程有限公司,武汉 430077
  • 4.中国地质大学 深圳研究院,深圳 518057
  • 叶新,男,2000年生,湖北仙桃人,在读硕士研究生;主要研究方向为人工智能、模式识别等;E-mail:

通讯作者:

文龙,男,1988年生,湖北孝感人,教授,博士研究生导师;主要研究方向为人工智能、装备状态检测与诊断;E-mail:
Bearing remaining useful life prediction method based on a hybrid Wiener-ANN model
Xin YE1 , Shaoquan SU2, Wei SHANG3, Fan YANG1, Long WEN2, 4
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China
  • 2.School of Mechanical and Electronic Information, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
  • 3.China Railway Science & Industry Group Equipment Engineering Co., Ltd., Wuhan 430077, China
  • 4.Shenzhen Research Institute, China University of Geosciences, Shenzhen 518057, China
出版时间: 2025-09-15 doi: 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2025.09.023
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轴承作为精密仪器中的关键旋转部件,其运行状态直接影响系统的安全性和稳定性,因此准确预测轴承剩余使用寿命尤为重要。现有的轴承剩余寿命预测方法可分为物理模型类和数据驱动类。物理模型方法具有较高的可解释性,所需样本量少,但预测精度较低,且不能在线预测;数据驱动方法则具有较高的预测精度和在线预测能力,但需要大量历史样本数据。为此,提出了结合物理模型和数据驱动方法的混合Wiener过程-人工神经网络(Wiener-Artificial Neural Network,Wiener-ANN)模型用于轴承剩余使用寿命预测。该模型通过时频域特征作为多源输入数据优化Wiener过程模型,使用优化后的模型进行第1阶段预测。随后,构建一个以第1阶段预测结果作为训练数据优化的三层ANN,将优化后的Wiener模型与ANN联合用于测试数据集的剩余寿命预测。与传统Wiener模型和ANN方法的预测结果对比表明,该方法在预测精度和应用性能上具有显著优势,具有较好的工程应用价值。

轴承  /  剩余使用寿命  /  预测方法  /  Wiener过程模型  /  人工神经网络

Bearings, as critical rotating components in precision instruments, directly affect the safety and stability of the system. Therefore, accurate prediction of their remaining useful life (RUL) is crucial. Existing RUL prediction methods for bearings can be classified into two types: physical model-based and data-driven approaches. Physical models offer high interpretability and require fewer samples but suffer from low prediction accuracy and cannot be used for online prediction.Data-driven methods, on the other hand, provide higher accuracy and support online prediction but require large amounts of data and have poor generalization ability under varying operating conditions or between different equipment. To address these limitations, a Wiener-ANN hybrid model is proposed for bearing RUL prediction, combining the advantages of both physical models and data-driven approaches. The model optimizes the Wiener process using time-frequency domain features as multi-source input data for the first-stage prediction. Subsequently, a three-layer artificial neural network (ANN) is trained using the first-stage prediction results to optimize the model. The optimized Wiener model is then combined with the ANN to predict the RUL of the test dataset. Comparisons with traditional Wiener models and ANN methods show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms these methods in prediction accuracy and application performance, demonstrating strong potential for engineering applications.

Bearing  /  Remaining useful life  /  Prediction method  /  Wiener process model  /  Artificial neural network
叶新, 苏少权, 尚伟, 杨帆, 文龙. 基于混合Wiener-ANN模型的轴承剩余使用寿命预测方法. 机械强度, 2025 , 47 (9) : 233 -240 . DOI: 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2025.09.023
Xin YE, Shaoquan SU, Wei SHANG, Fan YANG, Long WEN. Bearing remaining useful life prediction method based on a hybrid Wiener-ANN model[J]. Journal of Mechanical Strength, 2025 , 47 (9) : 233 -240 . DOI: 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2025.09.023
轴承在生产制造领域、航空航天领域、交通运输领域等广泛使用,作为机械设备关键部件,具有摩擦小、效率高、装配方便等优点,常应用于设备核心系统中。随着现代设备的自动化和复杂程度的日益提升,轴承大多处于高温、高压和高转速的工作环境中,这些条件对轴承的可靠性和安全性要求极高[1]。轴承在工作中可能会出现内圈磨损、外圈磨损、滚动体磨损等退化情况,持续的退化最终会造成轴承失效[2]。轴承的退化直接关系着设备的运行安全,轴承在长期运行中性能逐渐老化,剩余使用寿命(Remaining Useful Life,RUL)逐步下降,故障发生的潜在性增大。一旦发生故障,可能导致生产线非计划停机,企业面临经济损失风险,甚至导致人员伤亡[3]。因此,滚动轴承性能退化评估与剩余寿命预测已成为近年来的一个研究热点[4]。作为大型精密仪器装备中的关键部件,轴承的运行状态直接影响系统的安全性和稳定性,基于此,准确预测轴承的剩余使用寿命非常重要[5]
轴承的RUL预测可分为基于数据驱动的寿命预测和基于物理模型的寿命预测。数据驱动的剩余使用寿命预测是通过借助一些机器学习算法,从监测数据中提取健康指标,建立健康指标与剩余使用寿命间的非线性映射关系。数据驱动方法以人工神经网络(Artificial Neural Network, ANN)、支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)、卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Networks,CNN)、循环神经网络(Recurrent Neural Network,RNN)等方法为主对轴承寿命进行预测。者娜等[6]提取了滚动轴承的时域特征、频域特征,并运用核主成分分析(Kernel Principal Component Analysis, KPCA)进行了特征选择,在此基础上建立了基于SVM的RUL预测模型。高峰等[7]针对航空发动机健康管理问题,利用差分时域特征集对退化特征集进行扩展,建立了基于长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)的航空发动机RUL预测模型,并在商用模块化航空推进系统仿真(Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation,C-MAPSS)数据集中验证了模型的有效性。MAO等[8]提出了一种基于深度特征表示的迁移学习策略用于滚动轴承的剩余寿命预测,该策略在不同的机器实体之间共享广义预测知识。FAN等[9]提出了一种迁移学习方法,采用基于特征表示的一致性自组织模型学习广义预测知识,用于不同工作条件下的RUL预测。DE等[10]提出了一种基于LSTM神经网络的自修正算法,采用对抗学习方法,获取不同场景下的共同特征并进行寿命预测。
基于物理模型的方法通常根据装备退化机制或监测数据的退化趋势建立物理模型或经验模型,将装备退化行为用特定的数学函数表达式进行描述。RUL预测的物理模型有Wiener模型、Gamma模型和Weibull模型等。AYE等[11]提出了一种用于低速轴承RUL预测的最优高斯过程回归(Gaussian Process Regression, GPR),实现了低速轴承RUL的低百分比误差预测。HE等[12]提出了一种基于Wiener过程的双重加速退化模型来表征退化路径,并使用贝叶斯方法对模型参数进行求解。SONG等[13]提出了一种时间离散零调整的伽马过程模型,该模型可以解决趋势增加但观测数据包含零增量的退化现象,该方法比标准的伽马过程有更好的预测性能。ZHANG等[14]提出了一种基于广义Eyring模型和SVM的多应力下RUL加权预测方法,通过对电力变压器油纸的加速寿命试验,验证了该方法在温度-电压应力下的性能。
数据驱动的方法无需对装备退化机制和规律进行深入分析,通过借助一些机器学习算法从监测数据中提取健康指标,建立健康指标与RUL间的非线性映射关系,只需使用零件的历史退化数据即能得到较准确的预测结果[15]。然而,数据驱动的方法需要大量失效装备的全寿命数据进行模型训练,过分依赖训练数据[16],在处理多源数据融合预测问题时,无法对健康状态退化行为与不同传感器数据之间的关系进行明确解释。基于物理模型的方法以退化机制或经验知识作为指引,在监测数据退化趋势明显的情况下能够提供准确可靠的预测结果,所需数据量少且可解释性较强。但该类方法通常仅对单一监测数据进行建模分析,无法充分利用多源监测数据所蕴含的丰富状态退化信息对复杂工况或者复杂设备进行退化机制建模,随着分析参数的增加,建模的复杂性与难度也大幅增加。
基于上述原因,本文提出了一种物理模型与数据驱动融合的轴承RUL预测方法,以融合物理模型方法所需数据量少与数据驱动方法预测精度高的优点。为克服物理模型方法建模数据单一和数据驱动方法无法解释健康状态与不同传感器数据之间关系的缺点,使用了多源输入数据以提取完整的轴承退化信息。首先,对轴承振动信号进行小波分解,得到退化过程中轴承的各个频段的能量密度时频域特征,将其作为多源输入数据,以避免数据单一的问题。将轴承的能量密度特征作为轴承的历史退化数据,并分别对不同的Wiener模型进行建模与优化,避免了物理模型方法使用单一监测数据进行建模的情况,然后用Wiener模型进行第1阶段寿命预测。随后把第1阶段的预测结果用于ANN模型训练,而非直接用监测数据训练ANN模型,从而避免了数据驱动方法对零件健康状态与多源监测数据之间关联解释不清的问题。最后用优化好的Wiener模型与训练好的ANN模型对轴承进行RUL预测。
Wiener过程是一类具有高斯独立分布增量的非单调退化过程[17],又称为带线性漂移的布朗运动,由于布朗运动的双向性,Wiener过程可以较好地刻画非单调的性能退化过程,基于Wiener过程建立轴承的性能退化模型具有显著的数学优越性,可利用逆高斯分布来解析性能退化轴承的RUL分布[18]。零件退化过程模型为
式中,Zt)为零件在t时刻的退化量;Z0为初始退化量;τ为漂移系数,反映零件的退化率;σ为扩散系数,反映退化过程的随机不确定性;Bt)为标准布朗运动[19]
基于零件失效的首达时间概念,定义零件失效时的退化量为失效阈值,零件的寿命可以定义为
根据退化过程[式(1)]、零件寿命[式(2)]的定义,可知零件寿命Y服从逆高斯分布,其概率密度函数为
利用Wiener模型进行零件RUL预测需要计算漂移系数τ、扩散系数σ、失效阈值V。失效阈值V可根据零件退化数据确定,基于标准布朗运动的增量独立且为高斯分布及马氏性,可使用极大似然估计法计算得到漂移系数τ、扩散系数σ的极大似然估计为
式中,k为周期序号;N为周期数;Zk为第k周期时零件的退化量;ΔZk为第k周期较上一周期的退化变化量;Δt为间隔时长。根据式(3)~式(5),退化零件的RUL预测值可表示为
ANN是从生物学神经系统的信号传递抽象发展而成的。神经元是神经网络最基本的单元,神经系统由多个神经元构成,神经元相互连接,使信号能够在其之间相互传播。各神经元间的连接强度和极性有所不同且可以进行调整,因此信号在神经元之间的传播就构成了大脑思考和储存信息的基础[20]。ANN是一种监督学习算法,通过比较输出值和希望值的差别,调整网络节点间传播路径的权重值,使下次在相同输入的情况下输出值更接近于希望值。ANN网络的结构参照神经系统中的神经元有输入层节点、输出层节点和一层或多层隐藏层节点。输入信息通过输入层前向传播到隐藏层节点,经过激活函数计算后继续前向传播,最后从输出层输出结果。ANN网络的学习过程包括信息的前向传播和误差的反向传播(Back Propagation, BP)2个阶段,输入信息经过输入层和隐藏层的神经元逐层处理前向传播到输出层得到结果,将输出值与希望值进行比较并进入反向传播过程,将输出值和希望值之差沿网络返回,修改各层神经元联结的权重值以减小误差,前向传播和反向传播过程不断循环直至最终得到符合要求的输出结果。
Wiener-ANN模型由3部分组成,如图1所示。①数据预处理部分;②Wiener过程模型部分;③ANN部分。数据预处理部分负责对轴承振动信号进行小波分解得到5个频段的能量密度时域信号,然后通过窗口平滑方法对能量密度信号进行平滑处理。Wiener模型包含2个部分,首先是参数优化部分,建立5个Wiener模型,使用轴承5个频段的能量密度时域信号作为历史退化数据分别优化每个Wiener模型的关键参数;然后是第1阶段预测部分,利用优化好的Wiener模型根据能量密度信号预测轴承的RUL,输出5组RUL预测曲线,并将第1阶段的预测结果作为ANN部分的输入数据。ANN部分负责提取第1阶段5组预测结果的特征以及它们间的关联性,建立能量密度时频域特征与轴承RUL间的映射关系,实现多源输入联合预测。
由于需要将轴承振动的5个频段能量密度时序信号作为历史退化数据输入并提取特征,因此在式(6)中增加一个权重参数W,用于5组数据的协同预测。第k时刻轴承RUL预测值可表示为
使用梯度下降法对Wiener剩余使用寿命预测模型[式(7)]进行权重参数W的优化。假设lrul(k)为第k时刻对应的轴承RUL,使用均方差(Mean-Square Error, MSE)作为误差函数,累计误差可以表达为
对误差函数求导得到梯度函数,为
利用累计误差函数[式(8)]与梯度函数[式(9)],设置学习率lr,使用梯度下降法计算出累计误差最小时对应的权重值W,优化过程可表示为
使用Wiener模型进行寿命预测时可能精度不高,因此需要融合ANN以提高预测精度。一般使用Wiener模型进行RUL预测时,输入数据是历史退化数据,输出数据是RUL的概率密度函数或RUL预测曲线。本文使用5组退化数据和5个Wiener模型分别进行第1阶段预测,得到5组RUL预测数据,为
式中,Y1为第1阶段的RUL预测数据序列;y为RUL预测值;i为1~5的整数,代表数据组别;k代表周期序号;N代表周期总数。
使用这5组RUL预测数据作为ANN的五维输入,通过ANN提取5组数据间的关联性和特征。ANN预测RUL的计算过程可表示为
式中,Y2为ANN网络进行的第2阶段RUL预测数据;w为ANN各节点的计算权重值;b为ANN各节点的计算偏置值。ANN每层的计算过程都可用式(12)来表示。根据式(11)、式(12)的联合计算,即能实现Wiener模型与ANN的融合。
使用PHM2012数据集进行试验,IEEE可靠性协会和FEMTO-ST研究所组织了IEEE PHM 2012数据挑战赛,PHM2012数据集为该挑战赛提供的轴承的RUL预测的数据集。
数据集由轴承退化试验平台PRONOSTIA生成,PRONOSTIA由3个部分组成,分别为旋转部分、退化生成部分和测量部分:①旋转部分包括1个250 W的电动机和变速箱,最高转速为2 830 r/min;②退化生成部分的主体为气动千斤顶,能对轴承施加4 000 N的动载荷;③轴承的退化数据主要由2部分组成,分别为振动数据和温度数据,振动传感器由2个相互定位为90°的微型加速度计组成。以25.6 kHz的频率每隔10 s测量1次轴承的振幅与温度,采样时长为0.1 s。
试验分别在3个工况条件下进行,工况条件分别为①转速为1 800 r/min,载荷为4 000 N;②转速为1 650 r/min,载荷为4 200 N;③转速为1 500 r/min,载荷为5 000 N。前两个工况分别记录了7组数据,第3种工况记录了3组数据。
使用第1种工况下的Bearing1_1、Bearing1_3两组数据。以Bearing1_3作为训练数据,Bearing1_1作为测试数据。Bearing1_3是轴承的振动数据,包含2 375个采样点,每个采样点包含2 560个样本数据。使用数据Bearing1_3的水平振动信号来进行模型的训练和优化。Bearing1_3水平振动信号如图2所示。由图2可知,前期振幅维持在正常状态,从第1 400个周期开始振幅增大,说明此时轴承发生了故障。实际上轴承在更早时就已经开始退化,但振动信号未能完整描述退化过程。
对轴承振动信号的每个采样点分别进行小波分解,得到轴承Bearing1_3振动信号5个频段的能量密度时域信号,信号长度即为Bearing1_3的采样点数量。对能量密度时域信号进行平滑处理,平滑窗口宽度设置为100,平滑后的轴承5个频段能量密度时域信号如图3所示。从图3轴承各个频段的能量密度变化即可看出,轴承在更早时就已经开始退化,且不同频段的能量密度变化规律不同:第1、5频段的能量密度随时间增大,而第2、3、4频段的能量密度随时间减小。
在PHM2012数据集中,将振动加速度值首次达到20gg=9.8 m/s2)的时刻定义为失效时刻。因此参考图2图3确定轴承的失效阈值V。根据式(8)~式(10)使用梯度下降算法优化Wiener模型的权重参数W,得到优化后的权重值,如表1所示。
构建ANN网络对第1阶段预测结果进行联合预测,实现决策融合。ANN网络拥有3个隐藏层,第1层节点数为10,激活函数为logsig(对数S型传递函数);第2层节点数为20,激活函数为tansig(正切S型传递函数);第3层节点数为5,激活函数为purelin(线性传递函数)。模型输入维度为5,输出维度为1。采用拟牛顿法进行反向传播训练,以MSE作为性能指标。BP网络训练参数设置如表2所示。
模型的训练过程及回归结果如图4图5所示。图4为在ANN模型的训练过程中性能指标均方差eMSE随训练次数增加的变化:刚开始训练时,验证集的eMSE下降得很快,到训练步数为200之后,eMSE的下降开始减缓,随后eMSE缓慢下降,到最终训练步数为1 000时,eMSE=8 789.587 1,模型训练完成。
图5为训练过程中训练集、验证集、测试集的回归结果,虚线表示RUL预测目标直线,圆点表示回归预测的数据点,蓝、绿、红色直线分别表示训练集、验证集、测试集的预测数据拟合直线。在模型的训练过程中,训练集的回归精度达到0.982 66,验证集的回归精度达到0.982 51,测试集的回归精度达到0.986 69,总回归精度达到了0.983 14。
使用Wiener模型与ANN融合的RUL预测方法对Bearing1_1数据集进行预测。先对数据集Bearing1_1进行小波分解得到5个频段的能量密度时域信号,如图6所示。由图6可知,轴承Bearing1_1的退化过程与轴承Bearing1_3的退化过程整体相似,均表现为第1与第5频段的能量密度随时间而增大,第2、3、4频段的能量密度随时间而减小。但是值得注意的是两轴承第2频段能量密度的变化有所不同,轴承Bearing1_3减小得更明显。
将Bearing1_1的能量密度信号输入到优化后的Wiener模型得到第1阶段预测结果,再输入训练好的BP网络模型进行RUL预测,预测结果如图7所示,蓝色曲线为剩余寿命预测曲线,橙色直线为剩余寿命目标直线。由图7可知,预测曲线与目标直线较为贴近,在第1 000个周期之前,预测结果相比理想剩余寿命偏小,而在第1 000个周期后,预测结果相比理想剩余寿命偏长。
计算预测结果的相对误差如图8所示,由图8可知,前期预测精度较高,从第1 500个周期开始预测误差逐渐增大。与传统的Wiener模型预测方法[21]和只使用ANN的预测方法的平均相对误差进行对比,对比结果如表3所示。
所提方法在使用新数据进行预测时不需要再重新计算与优化Wiener过程模型的参数,相比传统的Wiener模型预测方法更为简单高效。由对比结果可知,虽然所提方法的待定参数量高于其他方法,本文提出的方法较于传统的Wiener过程模型RUL预测方法具有更高的预测精度。仅使用一个数据集进行训练亦能在其他数据集上取得比单独使用ANN更好的预测结果,说明本方法所需要的训练数据量相较数据驱动方法更少,预测精度也更高。
本文针对轴承RUL预测提出了Wiener过程模型与ANN融合的预测方法,得出如下主要结论:
1)对数据集PHM2012的Bearing1_3轴承振动信号进行小波分解得到5个频段的能量密度时域信号作为Wiener模型的输入,使用梯度下降法优化Wiener过程模型的关键参数并得到第1阶段预测结果。
2)构建了一个具有3个隐藏层的BP网络模型,以第1阶段预测结果作为输入进一步预测轴承的RUL,最后输出预测结果。
3)使用所提方法对Bearing1_1数据进行预测,平均相对误差为15.21%,优于传统的Wiener过程模型RUL预测方法。
所提方法利用了轴承振动的单个时频域特征(即能量密度),未来的研究计划进行轴承的多源数据和特征融合,以提升模型的预测性能。目前所提的方法在轴承的寿命后期会出现预测误差增大的现象,后续研究的重点之一则是解决此问题。
  • 深圳市基础研究专项(自然科学基金)面上项目(JCYJ20230807113708016)
  • 广东省自然科学基金项目(面上项目)(2024A1515011025)
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(52575605)
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2025年第47卷第9期
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doi: 10.16579/j.issn.1001.9669.2025.09.023
  • 接收时间:2025-02-15
  • 首发时间:2026-03-20
  • 出版时间:2025-09-15
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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-15
基金
Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(JCYJ20230807113708016)
深圳市基础研究专项(自然科学基金)面上项目(JCYJ20230807113708016)
Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2024A1515011025)
广东省自然科学基金项目(面上项目)(2024A1515011025)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(52575605)
国家自然科学基金项目(52575605)
作者信息
    1.武汉工程大学 电气信息学院,武汉 430205
    2.中国地质大学(武汉) 机械与电子信息学院,武汉 430074
    3.中铁科工集团装备工程有限公司,武汉 430077
    4.中国地质大学 深圳研究院,深圳 518057

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文龙,男,1988年生,湖北孝感人,教授,博士研究生导师;主要研究方向为人工智能、装备状态检测与诊断;E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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