Article(id=1309635238913995764, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999776411738115, issueId=1309635220643607372, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12048/j.issn.1674-229X.2026.02.007, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1741795200000, receivedDateStr=2025-03-13, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1790170972802, onlineDateStr=2026-09-23, pubDate=1771948800000, pubDateStr=2026-02-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1790170972802, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-09-23, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1790170972802, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1790170972802, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1309635220643607372, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999776411738115, year='2026', volume='36', issue='2', pageStart='81', pageEnd='160', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1771948800000', pubDateStr='2026-02-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1790170968446, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1790219084169, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1309837032671772868, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999776411738115, issueId=1309635220643607372, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1309837032671772869, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999776411738115, issueId=1309635220643607372, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=124, endPage=130, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1309635239081767925, articleId=1309635238913995764, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999776411738115, language=EN, title=Construction and Validation of A Nomogram Model for the Risk of Lower Limit Blood Concentration of Tacrolimus in the Early Perioperative Period Lung Transplant Patients, columnId=null, journalTitle=Pharmacy Today, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
OBJECTIVE

To analyze the risk factors for early low tacrolimus blood concentration in lung transplant patients and to develop and evaluate a risk prediction model.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of medical records of hospitalized lung transplant patients who had their tacrolimus blood concentrations monitored within three months post-transplantation.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to screen the risk factors for tacrolimus plasma concentration below the lower limit in the early postoperative period of lung transplantation patients. A nomogram model was developed using R software.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis identified age, sex, azole antifungal agents, and carbapenem antibiotics as independent risk factors for subtherapeutic tacrolimus blood concentrations (P <0.05). Based on these factors, a nomogram model was established.Model evaluation showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.919, and bootstrap validation demonstrated the good model fit with a mean absolute error of 0.022. The decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that when the threshold probability ranged from 0.1-0.91, the curve lay between the 'all events' and 'no events' curves, indicating the model achieved a high net benefit.

CONCLUSION

This study developed a risk prediction model for low tacrolimus blood concentrations in lung transplant recipients in the early stages, which can help guide individualized clinical dosing regimens.

, authors=Yao FU, Hui AO, Wenbo ZHOU, Zhengyue QIAN*, authorsList=Yao FU, Hui AO, Wenbo ZHOU, Zhengyue QIAN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Zhengyue QIAN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1309635239413117942, articleId=1309635238913995764, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227999776411738115, language=CN, title=肺移植早期他克莫司血药浓度偏低风险的列线图模型构建及评价, columnId=1228268588277105398, journalTitle=今日药学, columnName=临床药学, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

分析肺移植患者早期他克莫司血药浓度偏低的危险因素,并构建和评估他克莫司血药浓度偏低的风险预测模型。

方法

回顾性分析肺移植术后3个月内他克莫司血药浓度的住院患者病例资料,采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归筛选肺移植患者术后早期他克莫司血药浓度低于下限的危险因素,并通过R软件构建列线图模型。

结果

通过Logistic回归分析发现年龄、性别、唑类抗真菌药、碳青霉烯类抗菌药是他克莫司血药浓度低于下限的独立影响因素(P <0.05)。据此建立血药浓度低限的列线图模型,并进行模型评价得到曲线下面积(AUC)为0.919,bootstrap法评估模型拟合良好,平均绝对误差为0.022,且临床决策曲线(DCA)阈值概率范围为0.1 ~ 0.91之间时,该曲线位于均发生与均未发生曲线之间,表明该模型具有较高的净获益水平。

结论

本研究构建肺移植受者早期他克莫司血药浓度偏低的风险预测模型,有助于指导临床个体化给药方案。

, authors=傅遥, 敖惠, 周文博, 钱正月*, authorsList=傅遥, 敖惠, 周文博, 钱正月, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=钱正月, authorNote=

傅遥,主管药师,研究方向:临床药学(精准用药)

, correspAuthorsNote=

*

钱正月,主管药师,研究方向:临床药学,E-mail:
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肺移植早期他克莫司血药浓度偏低风险的列线图模型构建及评价
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傅遥 , 敖惠 , 周文博 , 钱正月 *
今日药学 | 临床药学 2026,36(2): 124-130
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今日药学 |临床药学 2026 , 36 (2) : 124 -130
肺移植早期他克莫司血药浓度偏低风险的列线图模型构建及评价
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傅遥, 敖惠, 周文博, 钱正月*
作者信息
  • 南京医科大学附属无锡人民医院药学部,江苏 无锡 214023
通讯作者:

*

钱正月,主管药师,研究方向:临床药学,E-mail:
作者简介:

傅遥,主管药师,研究方向:临床药学(精准用药)

Construction and Validation of A Nomogram Model for the Risk of Lower Limit Blood Concentration of Tacrolimus in the Early Perioperative Period Lung Transplant Patients
Yao FU, Hui AO, Wenbo ZHOU, Zhengyue QIAN*
Affiliations
  • Department of Pharmacy, The Affiliated Wuxi People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Wuxi, Jiangsu 214023, China
出版时间: 2026-02-25 doi: 10.12048/j.issn.1674-229X.2026.02.007
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目的

分析肺移植患者早期他克莫司血药浓度偏低的危险因素,并构建和评估他克莫司血药浓度偏低的风险预测模型。

方法

回顾性分析肺移植术后3个月内他克莫司血药浓度的住院患者病例资料,采用单因素和多因素Logistic回归筛选肺移植患者术后早期他克莫司血药浓度低于下限的危险因素,并通过R软件构建列线图模型。

结果

通过Logistic回归分析发现年龄、性别、唑类抗真菌药、碳青霉烯类抗菌药是他克莫司血药浓度低于下限的独立影响因素(P <0.05)。据此建立血药浓度低限的列线图模型,并进行模型评价得到曲线下面积(AUC)为0.919,bootstrap法评估模型拟合良好,平均绝对误差为0.022,且临床决策曲线(DCA)阈值概率范围为0.1 ~ 0.91之间时,该曲线位于均发生与均未发生曲线之间,表明该模型具有较高的净获益水平。

结论

本研究构建肺移植受者早期他克莫司血药浓度偏低的风险预测模型,有助于指导临床个体化给药方案。

肺移植  /  他克莫司  /  治疗药物监测  /  风险预测模型
OBJECTIVE

To analyze the risk factors for early low tacrolimus blood concentration in lung transplant patients and to develop and evaluate a risk prediction model.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of medical records of hospitalized lung transplant patients who had their tacrolimus blood concentrations monitored within three months post-transplantation.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were used to screen the risk factors for tacrolimus plasma concentration below the lower limit in the early postoperative period of lung transplantation patients. A nomogram model was developed using R software.

RESULTS

Logistic regression analysis identified age, sex, azole antifungal agents, and carbapenem antibiotics as independent risk factors for subtherapeutic tacrolimus blood concentrations (P <0.05). Based on these factors, a nomogram model was established.Model evaluation showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.919, and bootstrap validation demonstrated the good model fit with a mean absolute error of 0.022. The decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that when the threshold probability ranged from 0.1-0.91, the curve lay between the 'all events' and 'no events' curves, indicating the model achieved a high net benefit.

CONCLUSION

This study developed a risk prediction model for low tacrolimus blood concentrations in lung transplant recipients in the early stages, which can help guide individualized clinical dosing regimens.

lung transplantation  /  tacrolimus  /  therapeutic drug monitoring  /  risk prediction model
傅遥, 敖惠, 周文博, 钱正月. 肺移植早期他克莫司血药浓度偏低风险的列线图模型构建及评价. 今日药学, 2026 , 36 (2) : 124 -130 . DOI: 10.12048/j.issn.1674-229X.2026.02.007
Yao FU, Hui AO, Wenbo ZHOU, Zhengyue QIAN. Construction and Validation of A Nomogram Model for the Risk of Lower Limit Blood Concentration of Tacrolimus in the Early Perioperative Period Lung Transplant Patients[J]. Pharmacy Today, 2026 , 36 (2) : 124 -130 . DOI: 10.12048/j.issn.1674-229X.2026.02.007

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doi: 10.12048/j.issn.1674-229X.2026.02.007
  • 接收时间:2025-03-13
  • 首发时间:2026-09-23
  • 出版时间:2026-02-25
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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-13
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    南京医科大学附属无锡人民医院药学部,江苏 无锡 214023

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钱正月,主管药师,研究方向:临床药学,E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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