Article(id=1224799658392834192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1224799656396345456, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12284/hyxb2022134, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1565712000000, receivedDateStr=2019-08-14, revisedDate=1579190400000, revisedDateStr=2020-01-17, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1769944594237, onlineDateStr=2026-02-01, pubDate=1656604800000, pubDateStr=2022-07-01, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1769944594237, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-02-01, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1769944594237, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769944594237, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1224799656396345456, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, year='2022', volume='44', issue='7', pageStart='1', pageEnd='176', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1769944593762, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1769996013782, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1225015327654821950, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1224799656396345456, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1225015327654821951, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1224799656396345456, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=95, endPage=102, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1224799658665463960, articleId=1224799658392834192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=EN, title=Impacts of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, columnId=1194652705852465724, journalTitle=Haiyang Xuebao, columnName=Article, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Based on the sea surface temperature (SST), which is the most dominant environmental climate factor affecting the distribution of squid, the potential habitat changes of Ommastrephes bartramii in July to October in 1996−2005, 2021−2030, 2051−2060 and 2090−2100 are analyzed using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with the historical climate data from 1996 to 2005 and the projection climate data from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that the fishing grounds of O. bartramii performs a seasonal north-south migration. Meanwhile, as the seasonal north-south migration of O. bartramii may be affected by the suitable SST range in fishing season, with the feature climate change the potential habitat distribution of O. bartramii from July to September in 2021−2030, 2051−2060 and 2090−2100 will move northward and the suitable habitat area will increase compare to 1996−2005 under both scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.0. Under scenario of RCP4.5, the potential most suitable habitat for O. bartramii will move northward by 1°−2° and the suitable habitat area will increase by 3%−13% by the end of the 21st century. Under scenario of RCP 8.5, the potential most suitable habitat for O. bartramii will move northward by 3°−5° and the suitable habitat area will increase by 42%−80% by the end of the 21st century.

, correspAuthors=Feng Gao, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2022 Pratacultural Science. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Caixia Gong, Xinjun Chen, Feng Gao, Wei Yu), CN=ArticleExt(id=1224799661253349623, articleId=1224799658392834192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=CN, title=水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响, columnId=1149698756456657529, journalTitle=海洋学报, columnName=论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

根据影响西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地分布的主导环境因子—海表面温度,基于最大熵模型,利用1996−2005年气候历史数据和两种不同情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下的气候预估数据,分析了1996−2005年、2021−2030年、2051−2060年、2090−2100年主要捕捞月份(7−10月)柔鱼潜在栖息地变化。结果表明,柔鱼渔场纬度方向空间分布呈季节性南北移动;随着未来气候变化,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,2021−2030年、2051−2060年、2090−2100年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布较1996−2005年7−10月均呈现向北极移动趋势,适宜面积增加。推测柔鱼渔场季节性南北移动可能受各月适宜海表面温度范围变化的影响,在RCP4.5情景下,到21世纪末,各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动1°~2°,适宜面积增加3%~13%;在RCP8.5情景下,到21世纪末,各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动3°~5°,适宜面积增加42%~80%。

, correspAuthors=高峰, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
高峰,男,讲师,研究方向为渔场预报及渔业GIS。E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=版权所有©《海洋学报》编辑部 2022, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=tOYNKw5m9MK5XkWKlpypeA==, magXml=iaeIIucr1bT1CgMwzeP1wA==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=jrxBrJpCwZbQhiXkv6CGtA==, pdfFileSize=2052613, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=40SsTQ+gzPsZj/g+G3/hzw==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=sFiI5o2N46NLM5DWn0R3AQ==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

龚彩霞(1986-),女,湖南省益阳市人,博士研究生,研究方向为渔业海洋学。E-mail:

, authorsList=龚彩霞, 陈新军, 高峰, 余为)}, authors=[Author(id=1225366131343536614, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=cxgong@shou.edu.cn, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1225366131494531570, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, authorId=1225366131343536614, language=EN, stringName=Caixia Gong, firstName=Caixia, middleName=null, lastName=Gong, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1225366131586806262, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, authorId=1225366131343536614, language=CN, stringName=龚彩霞, firstName=彩霞, middleName=null, lastName=龚, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306, bio={"content":"

龚彩霞(1986-),女,湖南省益阳市人,博士研究生,研究方向为渔业海洋学。E-mail:

"}, bioImg=null, bioContent=

龚彩霞(1986-),女,湖南省益阳市人,博士研究生,研究方向为渔业海洋学。E-mail:

, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1225366129711952342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129728729559, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129737118168, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306)])]), Author(id=1225366131679080959, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, orderNo=1, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1225366131804910094, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, authorId=1225366131679080959, language=EN, stringName=Xinjun Chen, firstName=Xinjun, middleName=null, lastName=Chen, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, 3, address=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
3. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1225366131922350613, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, authorId=1225366131679080959, language=CN, stringName=陈新军, firstName=新军, middleName=null, lastName=陈, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, 3, address=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306
2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306
3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1225366129711952342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129728729559, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129737118168, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306)]), AuthorCompany(id=1225366131096072667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131108655580, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131096072667, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131112849885, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131096072667, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306)]), AuthorCompany(id=1225366131221901792, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131230290402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131221901792, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131234484708, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131221901792, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306)])]), Author(id=1225366132023013923, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, orderNo=2, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=gaofeng@shou.edu.cn, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=1, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1225366132136260140, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, authorId=1225366132023013923, language=EN, stringName=Feng Gao, firstName=Feng, middleName=null, lastName=Gao, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, 3, *, address=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
3. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1225366132220146227, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, authorId=1225366132023013923, language=CN, stringName=高峰, firstName=峰, middleName=null, lastName=高, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, 3, *, address=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306
2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306
3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1225366129711952342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129728729559, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129737118168, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306)]), AuthorCompany(id=1225366131096072667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131108655580, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131096072667, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131112849885, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131096072667, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306)]), AuthorCompany(id=1225366131221901792, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131230290402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131221901792, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131234484708, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131221901792, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306)])]), Author(id=1225366132354363963, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, orderNo=3, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1225366132501164615, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, authorId=1225366132354363963, language=EN, stringName=Wei Yu, firstName=Wei, middleName=null, lastName=Yu, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, 3, address=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
3. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1225366132614410832, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, authorId=1225366132354363963, language=CN, stringName=余为, firstName=为, middleName=null, lastName=余, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, 3, address=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306
2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306
3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null)}, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1225366129711952342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129728729559, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129737118168, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306)]), AuthorCompany(id=1225366131096072667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131108655580, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131096072667, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131112849885, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131096072667, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306)]), AuthorCompany(id=1225366131221901792, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131230290402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131221901792, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131234484708, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131221901792, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306)])])], keywords=[Keyword(id=1225366132832514652, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, orderNo=1, keyword=climate change), Keyword(id=1225366132928983655, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, orderNo=2, keyword=sea surface temperature), Keyword(id=1225366133017064042, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, orderNo=3, keyword=maximum entropy model), Keyword(id=1225366133121921647, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, orderNo=4, keyword=Ommastrephes bartramii), Keyword(id=1225366133218390651, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, orderNo=5, keyword=potential habitat distribution), Keyword(id=1225366133293888133, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, orderNo=1, keyword=气候变化), Keyword(id=1225366133402940045, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, orderNo=2, keyword=海表面温度), Keyword(id=1225366133499409044, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, orderNo=3, keyword=最大熵模型), Keyword(id=1225366133574906522, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, orderNo=4, keyword=柔鱼), Keyword(id=1225366133692347046, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, orderNo=5, keyword=潜在栖息地分布)], refs=[Reference(id=1225366137114899210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=1, rfOrder=0, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Tylianakis J M, Didham R K, Bascompte J, et al. Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems[J]. Ecology Letters, 2008, 11(12): 1351−1363., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366137207173902, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=2, rfOrder=1, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Cheung W W L, Lam V W Y, Sarmiento J L, et al. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios[J]. Fish and Fisheries, 2009, 10(3): 235−251., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366137303642896, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=3, rfOrder=2, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Cheung W W L, Lam V W Y, Sarmiento J L, et al. Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology, 2010, 16(1): 24−35., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366137400111894, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=4, rfOrder=3, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Freeman L A, Kleypas J A, Miller A J. Coral reef habitat response to climate change scenarios[J]. PLoS ONE, 2013, 8(12): e82404., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366137496580893, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=5, rfOrder=4, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Cheung W W L, Watson R, Pauly D. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch[J]. Nature, 2013, 497(7449): 365−368., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366137614021406, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=6, rfOrder=5, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Jones M C, Cheung W W L. Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity[J]. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2015, 72(3): 741−752., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366137693713190, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=7, rfOrder=6, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=王尧耕, 陈新军. 世界大洋性经济柔鱼类资源及其渔业[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社, 2005., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366137790182187, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=7, rfOrder=7, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Wang Yaogeng, Chen Xinjun. The Resource and Biology of Economic Oceanic Squid in the World[M]. Beijing: China Ocean Press, 2005., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366137991508786, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=8, rfOrder=8, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Ichii T, Mahapatra K, Sakai M, et al. Changes in abundance of the neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii in relation to climate change in the central North Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2011, 441: 151−164., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366138100560690, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=9, rfOrder=9, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Yu Wei, Chen Xinjun, Yi Qian, et al. Influence of oceanic climate variability on stock level of western winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2016, 37(17): 3974−3994., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366138226389813, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=10, rfOrder=10, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Alabia I D, Saitoh S I, Mugo R, et al. Seasonal potential fishing ground prediction of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the western and central North Pacific[J]. Fisheries Oceanography, 2015, 24(2): 190−203., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366138335441721, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=11, rfOrder=11, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Gong Caixia, Chen Xinjun, Gao Feng, et al. Importance of weighting for multi-variable habitat suitability index model: a case study of winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the northwestern Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Ocean University of China, 2012, 11(2): 241−248., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366138444493630, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=12, rfOrder=12, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=陈新军, 刘必林, 田思泉, 等. 利用基于表温因子的栖息地模型预测西北太平洋柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)渔场[J]. 海洋与湖沼, 2009, 40(6): 707−713., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366138532574018, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=12, rfOrder=13, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Chen Xinjun, Liu Bilin, Tian Siquan, et al. Forecasting the fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii with SST-based habitat suitability modelling in northwestern Pacific[J]. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 2009, 40(6): 707−713., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366138624848706, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=13, rfOrder=14, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Cao Jie, Chen Xinjun, Chen Yong. Influence of surface oceanographic variability on abundance of the western winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii in the Nw Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009, 381(12): 119−127., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366138700346181, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=14, rfOrder=15, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 从检验CMIP5气候模式看CMIP6地球系统模式的发展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 643−648., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366138763260746, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=14, rfOrder=16, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin. The detection of the CMIP5 climate model to see the development of CMIP6 earth system models[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 643−648., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140138992462, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=15, rfOrder=17, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=IPCC. 气候变化2014: 综合报告[R]. 日内瓦: IPCC, 2014: 1-151., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140235461458, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=15, rfOrder=18, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=IPCC. Climate change 2014: synthesis report[R]. Geneva: IPCC, 2014: 1−151., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140352901976, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=16, rfOrder=19, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Gent P R, Danabasoglu G, Donner L J, et al. The community climate system model version 4[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(19): 4973−4991., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140440982359, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=17, rfOrder=20, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Long M C, Lindsay K, Peacock S, et al. Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC)[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(18): 6775−6800., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140524868444, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=18, rfOrder=21, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3/4): 231−259., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140621337439, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=19, rfOrder=22, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=陈芃, 陈新军. 基于最大熵模型分析西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地分布[J]. 水产学报, 2016, 40(6): 893−902., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140717806436, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=19, rfOrder=23, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Chen Peng, Chen Xinjun. Analysis of habitat distribution of Argentine shortfin squid (Illex argentinus) in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean using maximum entropy model[J]. Journal of Fisheries of China, 2016, 40(6): 893−902., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140814275433, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=20, rfOrder=24, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Phillips S J. A brief tutorial on Maxent[EB/OL]. [2019−03−07]. http://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/maxent/., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366140923327342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=21, rfOrder=25, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Ichii T, Mahapatra K, Sakai M, et al. Life history of the neon flying squid: effect of the oceanographic regime in the North Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009, 378: 1−11., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141061739381, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=22, rfOrder=26, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=陈新军, 田思泉. 西北太平洋海域柔鱼的产量分布及作业渔场与表温的关系研究[J]. 中国海洋大学学报 (自然科学版), 2005, 35(1): 101−107., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141191762809, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=22, rfOrder=27, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Chen Xinjun, Tian Siquan. Study on the catch distribution and relationship between fishing ground and surface temperature for Ommastrephes bartrami in the northwestern Pacific Ocean[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2005, 35(1): 101−107., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141275648893, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=23, rfOrder=28, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=余为. 西北太平洋柔鱼冬春生群对气候与环境变化的响应机制研究[D]. 上海: 上海海洋大学, 2016., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141355340674, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=23, rfOrder=29, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Yu Wei. Response mechanism of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid to the climatic and environmental variability in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Ocean University, 2016, articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141451809670, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=24, rfOrder=30, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=刘娜, 王辉, 张蕴斐. 基于IPCC预测结果的北太平洋海表面温度变化分析[J]. 海洋学报, 2014, 36(7): 9−16., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141531501451, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=24, rfOrder=31, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Liu Na, Wang Hui, Zhang Yunfei. Variation of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific based on different IPCC scenarios[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(7): 9−16., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141627970447, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=25, rfOrder=32, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=曹杰. 西北太平洋柔鱼资源评估与管理[D]. 上海: 上海海洋大学, 2010., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141749605268, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=25, rfOrder=33, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Cao Jie. Stock assessment and risk analysis of management strategies for neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Ocean University, 2010., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141883823002, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=26, rfOrder=34, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=范江涛, 陈新军, 曹杰, 等. 西北太平洋柔鱼渔场变化与黑潮的关系[J]. 上海海洋大学学报, 2010, 19(3): 378−384., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366141984486303, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=26, rfOrder=35, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Fan Jiangtao, Chen Xinjun, Cao Jie, et al. The variation of fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific concerning with Kuroshio current[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University, 2010, 19(3): 378−384., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366142076760996, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=27, rfOrder=36, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=FAO. Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture: summary of the findings of the intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment report [R]. Rome: FAO, 2016., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366142160647079, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=28, rfOrder=37, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Nguyen K D T, Morley S A, Lai C H, et al. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications[J]. PLoS ONE, 2011, 6(12): e29340., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366142269698989, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=29, rfOrder=38, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Alabia I D, Saitoh S I, Igarashi H, et al. Future projected impacts of ocean warming to potential squid habitat in western and central North Pacific[J]. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016, 73(5): 1343−1356., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366142374556594, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=30, rfOrder=39, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Shultz A D, Zuckerman Z C, Tewart H A, et al. Seasonal blood chemistry response of sub-tropical nearshore fishes to climate change[J]. Conservation Physiology, 2014, 2(1): cou028., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1225366142462636984, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=31, rfOrder=40, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Jones M C, Dye S R, Pinnegar J K, et al. Modelling commercial fish distributions: prediction and assessment using different approaches[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2012, 225: 133−145., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1225366136892601088, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, awardId=41876141,41906073, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金(41876141,41906073), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1225366129711952342, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129728729559, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366129737118168, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366129711952342, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306)]), AuthorCompany(id=1225366131096072667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131108655580, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131096072667, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131112849885, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131096072667, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306)]), AuthorCompany(id=1225366131221901792, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131230290402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131221901792, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1225366131234484708, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, companyId=1225366131221901792, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1225366133889479343, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, label=Fig. 1, caption=Monthly distributions of Ommastrephes bartramii fishing grounds for the Chinese squid-jigging vessels from July to October of 1996−2005, figureFileSmall=9hj3l23ozZQrdo0xxC81Kw==, figureFileBig=/OHq8IX4gZJBdcYEp5aLqA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366133969171125, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, label=图1, caption=1996−2005年7−10月中国鱿钓船各月柔鱼渔场作业分布, figureFileSmall=9hj3l23ozZQrdo0xxC81Kw==, figureFileBig=/OHq8IX4gZJBdcYEp5aLqA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366134095000251, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=Monthly variations of sea surface temperature (SST) for fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii from July to October, figureFileSmall=MgsdUZJHKDESXg1/2i52Mg==, figureFileBig=f9GFNxYgs0pRalbojP2uzQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366134183080640, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, label=图2, caption=7−10月柔鱼渔场月均海表面温度(SST)年代际变化预测, figureFileSmall=MgsdUZJHKDESXg1/2i52Mg==, figureFileBig=f9GFNxYgs0pRalbojP2uzQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366134254383812, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, label=Fig. 3, caption=Monthly response of potential habitat suitability index for Ommastrephes bartramii to sea surface temperature (SST) from July to October of 1996−2005

Red represent mean of the 10 replicate MaxEnt model runs; blue represent the standard deviation

, figureFileSmall=L0hBG352+PiytTTSKa43gg==, figureFileBig=bNH82vZGtyF0hhc+1W6/nw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366135638504140, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, label=图3, caption=1996−2005年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜性指数对海表面温度(SST)的响应曲线

红色为MaxEnt模型10次运算平均值;蓝色为标准差

, figureFileSmall=L0hBG352+PiytTTSKa43gg==, figureFileBig=bNH82vZGtyF0hhc+1W6/nw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366135739167437, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, label=Fig. 4, caption=Change in proportion of projected suitable habitat area of Ommastrephes bartramii (compared to what was available in 2000), figureFileSmall=trooUa06D2q3JkVDuDG3cA==, figureFileBig=LVipuuVTgX2Fl4wK0TOLSg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366135860802261, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, label=图4, caption=柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜面积比年代际变化预测(相比于2000年), figureFileSmall=trooUa06D2q3JkVDuDG3cA==, figureFileBig=LVipuuVTgX2Fl4wK0TOLSg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366135961465564, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, label=Fig. 5, caption=Potential habitat suitability index distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii from July to October in 2000, 2025, 2055 and 2095, figureFileSmall=4V0V2gqRQ9X5SC+xqxT4zg==, figureFileBig=eYR449tn9nF9KxPOI70JCA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366136057934560, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, label=图5, caption=2000年、2025年、2055年和2095年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜性指数分布, figureFileSmall=4V0V2gqRQ9X5SC+xqxT4zg==, figureFileBig=eYR449tn9nF9KxPOI70JCA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366136179569382, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, label=Fig. 6, caption=Sea surface temperature (SST) rising in fishing grounds of Ommastrephes bartramii under change scenarios (compared to what was available in 2000), figureFileSmall=12Ym6Ubo0kabVsLAkLfsug==, figureFileBig=IYP3oK0nMtPauD24HMK/og==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366136288621291, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, label=图6, caption=气候变化情景下柔鱼渔场海表面温度(SST)上升情况(相比于2000年), figureFileSmall=12Ym6Ubo0kabVsLAkLfsug==, figureFileBig=IYP3oK0nMtPauD24HMK/og==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1225366136401867505, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Summary statistics derived from MaxEnt models for squid’s potential habitat from July to October of 1996−2005

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
月份样本总数(NAUC值标准差(SD)
7月1240.9380.006
8月970.9430.008
9月880.9500.006
10月870.9490.006
), ArticleFig(id=1225366136527696630, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1224799658392834192, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

1996−2005年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的MaxEnt模型统计测试结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
月份样本总数(NAUC值标准差(SD)
7月1240.9380.006
8月970.9430.008
9月880.9500.006
10月870.9490.006
)], attaches=null, journal=Journal(id=1146441459026210850, delFlag=0, nameCn=海洋学报, nameEn=Haiyang Xuebao, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, issn=0253-4193, eissn=null, cn=11-2055/P, coden=null, periodic=0, language=CN, oaType=否, ccby=null, superviseOffice=null, ownerOffice=null, pubOffice=null, editorOffice=null, officeType=null, aims=null, clcCode=null, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=null, officeZip=null, officeEmail=null, officePhone=null, editDirector=null, officeDirector=null, officeDirectorPhone=null, officeStaffNum=null, officeEmpNum=null, coverPicUrl=uYi7hkkrve+l8pIcwqcaQQ==, journalPrice=null, startedYear=null, abbrevIsoEn=null, journalRemark=null, publicationField=null, createdTime=1751262543687, updatedTime=1761729782936, createdBy=18614031015, updatedBy=13701087609, firstLetterCn=H, firstLetterEn=H, subjectCode=Natural Sciences, subjectName=Natural Sciences, subjectCodeEn=Natural Sciences, subjectNameEn=null, picCn=uYi7hkkrve+l8pIcwqcaQQ==, picEn=C0WLQb7uW3ok8EkkVOAGuw==, jcr=null, cjcr=null, exts=[JournalExt(id=1190344242636624294, language=CN, name=海洋学报, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=http://www.hyxbocean.cn/, createdTime=1761729782971, updatedTime=1761729782971, createdBy=13701087609, updatedBy=13701087609, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=http://www.hyxb.org.cn/aos/ch/author/login.aspx, submissionEditorUrl=http://www.hyxb.org.cn/aos/ch/login.aspx, submissionReviewUrl=http://www.hyxb.org.cn/aos/ch/auditor/login.aspx, submissionCeEditorUrl=, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""}), JournalExt(id=1190344242712121767, language=EN, name=Haiyang Xuebao, nameHistory1=null, nameHistory2=null, managedBy=, sponsoredBy=, publishedBy=, editorOffice=, officeProv=null, officeCity=null, officeAddr=, officeZip=, editDirector=, officeDirector=null, officePhone=null, coverPicUrl=null, journalRemark=, submitArticleUrl=null, websiteUrl=http://www.aosocean.com/, createdTime=1761729782989, updatedTime=1761729782989, createdBy=13701087609, updatedBy=13701087609, submissionGuidelinesUrl=, submissionAuthorUrl=http://www.hyxb.org.cn/aos/ch/author/login.aspx, submissionEditorUrl=http://www.hyxb.org.cn/aos/ch/login.aspx, submissionReviewUrl=http://www.hyxb.org.cn/aos/ch/auditor/login.aspx, submissionCeEditorUrl=, submissionAeEditorUrl=, option={"copyright":""})], databaseList=null, tenantJournalId=1149651085930835976, websiteList=[Website(id=1188165202219512001, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1149651085930835976, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/CN, language=CN, createTime=1761210259251, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1761210330879, updateBy=18614031015, name=海洋学报-中文, tplId=1146099689490845704, title=海洋学报, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1188166688563413602, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202219512001, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1761210613623, updateTime=1761210613623, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166688538247775, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202219512001, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1761210613617, updateTime=1761210613617, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166688529859166, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202219512001, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/CN/file/pic?fileId=BDEio/cxHnid8OD4QxrAYQ==, createTime=1761210613615, updateTime=1761210613615, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166688555024993, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202219512001, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/CN/file/pic, createTime=1761210613621, updateTime=1761210613621, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166688546636384, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202219512001, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_cn_619/, createTime=1761210613619, updateTime=1761210613619, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166688575996515, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202219512001, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1761210613626, updateTime=1761210613626, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166688596968036, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202219512001, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1761210613631, updateTime=1761210613631, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)]), Website(id=1188165202282426564, webName=null, webTitle=null, webDomain=null, webCopyrigh=null, webIpcNo=null, seoTitle=null, seoKeywords=null, seoDescription=null, tenantJournalId=null, journalId=1149651085930835976, journalNameCn=null, journalNameEn=null, grayFlag=null, tenantId=1146029695717560320, platformId=null, journalGroupId=null, journalGroupNameCn=null, journalGroupNameEn=null, type=1, domain=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/EN, language=EN, createTime=1761210259266, createBy=18614031015, updateTime=1761210377920, updateBy=18614031015, name=海洋学报-英文, tplId=1146101810881728533, title=Haiyang Xuebao, delFlag=0, indexPage=/home, props=[WebsiteProps(id=1188166798101856873, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202282426564, code=articleTextType, value=kx, createTime=1761210639739, updateTime=1761210639739, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166798076691046, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202282426564, code=banner, value=null, createTime=1761210639733, updateTime=1761210639733, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166798068302437, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202282426564, code=logo, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/EN/file/pic?fileId=BDEio/cxHnid8OD4QxrAYQ==, createTime=1761210639731, updateTime=1761210639731, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166798093468264, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202282426564, code=picServerUrl, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/EN/file/pic, createTime=1761210639737, updateTime=1761210639737, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166798085079655, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202282426564, code=staticResourcePath, value=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/cast_kjdb_en_623/, createTime=1761210639735, updateTime=1761210639735, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166798106051178, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202282426564, code=themeColor, value=null, createTime=1761210639740, updateTime=1761210639740, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015), WebsiteProps(id=1188166798110245483, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=null, journalGroupId=null, siteId=1188165202282426564, code=themeStyle, value=null, createTime=1761210639741, updateTime=1761210639741, creator=18614031015, updator=18614031015)])], journalTitle=海洋学报, weixinUrl=null, journalUrl=http://www.hyxbocean.cn/, iacademicId=null, status=1, seqNo=null, journalTitleEn=Haiyang Xuebao, journalPhotoCn=uYi7hkkrve+l8pIcwqcaQQ==, journalPhotoEn=C0WLQb7uW3ok8EkkVOAGuw==, journalFirstLetter=H, journalRecommend=null, journalNew=null, journalCollection=null, jcrJf=null, cjcrJf=null, jcrJfStr=null, cjcrJfStr=null, submissionFirstDecision=null, sciSubjectClassification=null, casSubjectClassification=null, citeScore=null, totalCitationFrequency=null, icpCode=null, psCode=null, advertisingLicenseCode=null, copyrightInformation=null, country=null, option=, provinceCode=null, provinceName=null, collectFlag=false), detailUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/CN/10.12284/hyxb2022134, detailUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/EN/10.12284/hyxb2022134, pdfUrlCn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/CN/PDF/10.12284/hyxb2022134, pdfUrlEn=https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/EN/PDF/10.12284/hyxb2022134, aliStartDate=null, aliEndDate=null, collectionFlag=false, citedCount=null, citedUrl=null, reference=null)
收藏切换
水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响
收藏切换
PDF下载
龚彩霞 1 , 陈新军 1, 2, 3 , 高峰 1, 2, 3, * , 余为 1, 2, 3
海洋学报 | 论文 2022,44(7): 95-102
收起
收藏切换
海洋学报 | 论文 2022, 44(7): 95-102
水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响
全屏
龚彩霞1 , 陈新军1, 2, 3, 高峰1, 2, 3, * , 余为1, 2, 3
作者信息
  • 1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306
  • 2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306
  • 3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306
  • 龚彩霞(1986-),女,湖南省益阳市人,博士研究生,研究方向为渔业海洋学。E-mail:

通讯作者:

高峰,男,讲师,研究方向为渔场预报及渔业GIS。E-mail:
Impacts of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean
Caixia Gong1 , Xinjun Chen1, 2, 3, Feng Gao1, 2, 3, * , Wei Yu1, 2, 3
Affiliations
  • 1. College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
  • 2. National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
  • 3. Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
出版时间: 2022-07-01 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022134
文章导航
收藏切换

根据影响西北太平洋柔鱼栖息地分布的主导环境因子—海表面温度,基于最大熵模型,利用1996−2005年气候历史数据和两种不同情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下的气候预估数据,分析了1996−2005年、2021−2030年、2051−2060年、2090−2100年主要捕捞月份(7−10月)柔鱼潜在栖息地变化。结果表明,柔鱼渔场纬度方向空间分布呈季节性南北移动;随着未来气候变化,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,2021−2030年、2051−2060年、2090−2100年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布较1996−2005年7−10月均呈现向北极移动趋势,适宜面积增加。推测柔鱼渔场季节性南北移动可能受各月适宜海表面温度范围变化的影响,在RCP4.5情景下,到21世纪末,各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动1°~2°,适宜面积增加3%~13%;在RCP8.5情景下,到21世纪末,各月柔鱼潜在最适宜生境向北移动3°~5°,适宜面积增加42%~80%。

气候变化  /  海表面温度  /  最大熵模型  /  柔鱼  /  潜在栖息地分布

Based on the sea surface temperature (SST), which is the most dominant environmental climate factor affecting the distribution of squid, the potential habitat changes of Ommastrephes bartramii in July to October in 1996−2005, 2021−2030, 2051−2060 and 2090−2100 are analyzed using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with the historical climate data from 1996 to 2005 and the projection climate data from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show that the fishing grounds of O. bartramii performs a seasonal north-south migration. Meanwhile, as the seasonal north-south migration of O. bartramii may be affected by the suitable SST range in fishing season, with the feature climate change the potential habitat distribution of O. bartramii from July to September in 2021−2030, 2051−2060 and 2090−2100 will move northward and the suitable habitat area will increase compare to 1996−2005 under both scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.0. Under scenario of RCP4.5, the potential most suitable habitat for O. bartramii will move northward by 1°−2° and the suitable habitat area will increase by 3%−13% by the end of the 21st century. Under scenario of RCP 8.5, the potential most suitable habitat for O. bartramii will move northward by 3°−5° and the suitable habitat area will increase by 42%−80% by the end of the 21st century.

climate change  /  sea surface temperature  /  maximum entropy model  /  Ommastrephes bartramii  /  potential habitat distribution
龚彩霞, 陈新军, 高峰, 余为. 水温变暖对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响. 海洋学报, 2022 , 44 (7) : 95 -102 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2022134
Caixia Gong, Xinjun Chen, Feng Gao, Wei Yu. Impacts of ocean warming on potential habitat distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2022 , 44 (7) : 95 -102 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2022134
气候变化导致全球变暖已经对陆地、淡水和海洋生态系统造成了直接或间接的影响[1-2],在海洋环境中,许多物种已经改变了其地理分布范围[3-4]、丰度[5]、物种间的交互作用[6],从而进一步影响海洋渔业的经济发展和食物供给。气候变化对海洋物种分布格局和种群数量的影响研究越来越受关注。柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)是西北太平洋渔业重要的经济种类之一,分布在北太平洋西部海域的柔鱼冬春生群是我国传统的捕捞对象[7],我国在该海域内每年的柔鱼产量占北太平洋柔鱼总产量的80%以上。其资源丰度和分布受全球气候变化和局部海洋环境变动的影响[8-9],其中海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)被认为是影响柔鱼栖息地分布最重要的环境指示因子之一[10-11]。近20年来,利用遥感环境数据,以水温为主要环境因子对柔鱼的资源丰度和渔场分布进行近实时预报研究已取得重要进展[12-13],但针对气候变化背景下,柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的中长时期(至21世纪末)预测研究较少,因此本文利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC)第5次评估报告中采用的全球耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)模式中的SST数据,结合柔鱼生产数据,基于最大熵(Maximum Entropy,MaxEnt)模型分析未来不同气候变化情景下,柔鱼种群潜在栖息地分布的变化情况,为渔业生产和管理提供理论依据。
柔鱼渔业生产数据来源于上海海洋大学鱿钓技术组,时间为1996−2005年7−10月,为柔鱼主要渔汛月份。空间分布范围为35°~50°N,143°~170°E,为西北太平洋传统作业渔场。数据包括作业日期(年、月和日)、作业船数、作业位置(经度和纬度)、日产量(单位:t)等。本研究利用中国鱿钓渔船渔捞记录,去除日产量为0的数据记录,最后获得1996−2005年7−10月的渔业数据总样本数量分别为5 353、9 009、8 531和7 530,并将该数据按月输入MaxEnt模型中进行建模。
CMIP5模式是地球系统模式,共有46个气候模式参与对比,模式做历史试验积分的时段一般为1850−2005年,未来预估的积分时段一般为2006−2100年,模拟不同典型浓度路径(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)下未来气候变化[14]。RCPs中包括一类温室气体严格减缓情景(RCP2.6)、两类中度排放情景(RCP4.5和RCP6.0)和一类高排放情景(RCP8.5)[15]。研究采用CMIP5模式中的全球海气耦合气候模式CESM1(Community Earth System Model Version 1),该模式是由美国国家大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCAR)在通用气候系统模式4(Community Climate System Model Version 4, CCSM4)基础上开发的地球气候系统模式[16]。CESM1包含RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景,SST数据来源于美国国家环境预报中心(http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/las/v6/dataset?catitem=0),时间尺度为月,空间分布范围为30°~60°N,135°E~180°,空间尺度为1°×1°[17]
研究利用CESM1中1996−2005年7−10月的历史试验SST数据,并将10年的7−10月月平均SST值作为2000年7−10月的基准环境数据。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,CESM1输出的未来气候变化SST数据分别分为3个时间段,计算2021−2030年7−10月、2051−2060年7−10月、2091−2100年7−10月的月平均SST值分别作为2025年7−10月、2055年7−10月、2095年7−10月的SST数据。
MaxEnt模型是由Phillips等[18]在2004年构建并开始应用的物种分布模型(Species Distribution Model,SDM),目前已被广泛应用于物种分布预测研究[4, 10, 19]。模型运算使用了最新的软件MAXENT3.4.1(http://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/maxent/),该软件输入层中的柔鱼分布数据为1996−2005年主要渔汛月份(7−10月)每日渔获所在渔场经纬度和物种名(即所有年份7月、8月、9月和10月渔业数据,共4个数据集,且以CSV格式进行存储,包括物种名、渔获所在经度、渔获所在纬度),环境图层为2000年汛期作业海域的基准SST数据(即7月、8月、9月和10月的SST数据,且以ASCII格式进行存储)。预测图层为RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下2025年、2055年及2095年捕捞期(7−10月)的SST数据(以ASCII格式进行存储),在设置中随机将柔鱼渔捞数据样本中70%的出现点设置为训练集,剩余30%的出现点作为测试集,重复运算设定为10次,以消除随机性,结果以Logistic格式输出,其余选项默认模型的自动设置。
利用受试者工作特征曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, ROC)下面积(Area Under Curve, AUC)大小来评价各月模型预测的准确性[20]。AUC值大小范围为0.5~1,AUC数值越大,表明模拟的精度越高,AUC>0.9时,表明模拟精度非常高,MaxEnt模型适用于对该物种进行潜在栖息地分布预测。将不同情景下各年月的MaxEnt模型预测的柔鱼潜在栖息地分布概率结果分别导入ArcGIS中进行可视化分析,将预测的概率值定义为栖息地适宜性指数(Habitat Suitability Index, HSI)。当HSI≥0.6时,该海域被认作柔鱼栖息最适宜区;当0.4≤HSI<0.6,该海域被认作较适宜区;当0.2≤HSI<0.4,该海域被认作一般适宜区;当0≤HSI<0.2时,该海域被认作不适宜区。
1996−2005年柔鱼渔场分布存在季节性差异。在经度上,7−8月渔场广泛分布在145°~170°E之间,9−10月渔场向西移动,主要分布在145°~165°E之间,集中分布在150°~160°E之间(图1)。在纬度上,7月渔场主要出现在38°~43°N之间,8月渔场向北移动,主要出现在40°~45°N之间,9月渔场继续向北移动,主要出现在42°~45°N之间,10月渔场向南移动,主要出现在40°~44°N之间(图1)。
柔鱼渔场水温季节性变化明显。2000年7月渔汛早期时较高,渔场平均SST为17.78℃;8月升高到18.67℃;9月降低到17.44℃,与7月相近;10月继续降低,平均为15.96℃。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,2025年、2055年和2095年7−10月柔鱼渔场各月平均SST变化趋势与2000年7−10月渔场各月平均SST变化一致(图2)。
柔鱼渔场水温年变化明显。相比于2000年7−10月,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种情景下,2025年、2055年和2095年柔鱼渔场各月平均SST均上升(图2)。除了在RCP4.5下,2095年9月和10月分别低于2055年9月和10月,其他所有年份中,各月平均SST均随着年份的增加而增加(图2)。在RCP4.5下,同期的平均SST均低于RCP8.5(图2)。
1996−2005年各月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布MaxEnt模型的测试集AUC值均大于0.9(表1),表明MaxEnt模型对西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的预测效果非常好。
1996−2005年各月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布MaxEnt模型训练结果显示,柔鱼潜在栖息地各月适宜的SST范围发生改变(图3)。7月和10月最适宜SST较低,8月和9月较高。7−10月最适宜SST范围分别为14~19℃、17~22℃、16~21℃和13~19℃,峰值分别出现在15℃、20℃、20℃和15℃。
未来气候变化情景下,柔鱼各月潜在栖息地的适宜面积(最适宜区和较适宜区面积之和)发生改变。相比于2000年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地的适宜面积,在RCP4.5情景下,2025年、2055年、2095年均有所增加,新增面积变化幅度为3%~13%(图4)。在RCP8.5情景下,除2025年8月和10月以及2055年8月适宜面积略有减少,减少面积为1%~3%,其他年月的适宜面积均有所增加,特别是到2095年,7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的适宜面积显著增加,新增面积为变化幅度42%~80%(图4)。
2000年柔鱼潜在栖息地最适宜区纬度范围为39°~45°N(图5a)。在RCP4.5情景下,最适宜区随着年份的增加缓慢向北移动,到2095年向北移动到40°~46°N (图5b );在RCP8.5情景下,柔鱼潜在栖息地分布最适宜区向北移动明显,到2095年最适宜区向北移动并扩张到42°~51°N(图5c)。
1996−2005年7−10月柔鱼渔场在经度方向上呈现从170°E逐步向西移动的趋势,纬度方向上呈现季节性南北移动(图1)。水温影响柔鱼生理、生长和生存,使柔鱼对栖息环境中的水温变化高度敏感[7, 21],本文MaxEnt模型结果显示,1996−2005年7−10月柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜的月均SST范围发生改变(图3),这可能是导致柔鱼渔场在纬度方向上呈现季节性分布变化特征的原因之一,这与前人研究结果一致[12, 22]。有研究认为,柔鱼渔场纬度重心的南北移动主要与太平洋年代际涛动(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)以及SST和海表面高度(Sea Surface Height, SSH)有关[23],但本文仅利用SST进行了分析,柔鱼渔场经纬度方向的季节变化可能还受其他环境因子的影响,今后需进一步结合其他环境因子进行分析。
气候变化背景下,水温变暖使西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地分布范围整体向极地移动和扩张。未来柔鱼渔场水温存在明显的年变化(图2),进一步分析表明,在RCP4.5情景下,2025年、2055年和2095年7−10月柔鱼渔场年均SST分别升高1.03℃、1.83℃和1.63℃;在RCP8.5情景下,2025年、2055年和2095年7−10月柔鱼渔场年均SST分别升高1.90℃、2.32℃和3.76℃(图6)。推测到21世纪末,当柔鱼渔场年均SST上升不超过1.63℃时,柔鱼潜在栖息地分布范围向北移动不超过2个纬度;当柔鱼渔场年均SST上升达到3.76℃时,柔鱼潜在栖息地分布将大范围向北移动和扩张,最适宜区北缘最北可达到51°N。气候变化下柔鱼渔场SST升高,柔鱼潜在栖息地向北移动可能是其适宜水温向北扩张后的反映。从海洋物理过程看,在西北太平洋海域,SST上升不仅与气候变暖有关,而且与黑潮有关,未来气候变化下,黑潮延伸体可能向北移动并得到加强,且其海域表面增温远大于周围海域[24],而柔鱼渔场主要分布在黑潮延伸体海域以及与亲潮交汇区[25-26],这给未来柔鱼栖息地向北移动提供了可能。从营养供给来看,气候变化下北太平洋浮游生物向北扩张[27],且黑潮增强,将丰富的饵料向北输送,这也给柔鱼栖息地向北移动提供支持。
为应对气候变化,有的物种能够很好地适应环境变化,成为优势物种;有的物种不能适应新的环境,栖息地减少甚至丧失[2-3, 6, 28]。相同的物种在不同的海域中对气候变化的响应可能不同[4],这可能与不同海洋生态系统中生物物理化学环境变化有关。本研究结果表明,水温上升使西北太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地面积有不同程度的增加,但Alabia等[29]研究认为,海洋变暖使中西部太平洋柔鱼潜在栖息地适宜面积减小。尽管北太平洋海域SST预测整体呈现上升趋势,但西北太平洋柔鱼渔场主要分布在黑潮和亲潮交汇区,而中西太平洋柔鱼渔场主要分布在亚北极边界至亚北极锋区,两个海域不同的物理过程和生物生产力变化可能造成柔鱼潜在栖息地预测结果差异。此外,本文中仅考虑了SST变化对柔鱼潜在栖息地的影响,也可能给研究结果带来偏差。不同的物种在相同的海域中对气候变化的响应也可能不同,这可能与物种本身生理特性及其对环境的适应性有关,如亚热带物种对气候变暖的反应差异显著[30]。相同的物种在同一海域栖息地变化也可能由于模型原理不同而导致结果出现差异[6, 31]。因此,在今后的研究中,应结合柔鱼在西北太平洋生态系统的功能和自身生理反应特征采用多模式方法进一步研究其对气候变化的响应,以减少研究中的不确定性。
西北太平洋柔鱼渔场时空分布受到海洋环境的综合影响,本研究仅分析了单因素SST的变化对柔鱼潜在栖息地分布的影响,未来应结合多因素,如叶绿素浓度、海表面高度、海流等海洋特性,进一步分析气候变化对西北太平洋生态系统的影响和柔鱼渔场的时空分布、渔汛变化及资源量变化情况。
  • 国家自然科学基金(41876141,41906073)
参考文献 引证文献
排序方式:
1
Tylianakis J M, Didham R K, Bascompte J, et al. Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems[J]. Ecology Letters, 2008, 11(12): 1351−1363.
2
Cheung W W L, Lam V W Y, Sarmiento J L, et al. Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios[J]. Fish and Fisheries, 2009, 10(3): 235−251.
3
Cheung W W L, Lam V W Y, Sarmiento J L, et al. Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology, 2010, 16(1): 24−35.
4
Freeman L A, Kleypas J A, Miller A J. Coral reef habitat response to climate change scenarios[J]. PLoS ONE, 2013, 8(12): e82404.
5
Cheung W W L, Watson R, Pauly D. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch[J]. Nature, 2013, 497(7449): 365−368.
6
Jones M C, Cheung W W L. Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity[J]. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2015, 72(3): 741−752.
7
王尧耕, 陈新军. 世界大洋性经济柔鱼类资源及其渔业[M]. 北京: 海洋出版社, 2005.
Wang Yaogeng, Chen Xinjun. The Resource and Biology of Economic Oceanic Squid in the World[M]. Beijing: China Ocean Press, 2005.
8
Ichii T, Mahapatra K, Sakai M, et al. Changes in abundance of the neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii in relation to climate change in the central North Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2011, 441: 151−164.
9
Yu Wei, Chen Xinjun, Yi Qian, et al. Influence of oceanic climate variability on stock level of western winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2016, 37(17): 3974−3994.
10
Alabia I D, Saitoh S I, Mugo R, et al. Seasonal potential fishing ground prediction of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the western and central North Pacific[J]. Fisheries Oceanography, 2015, 24(2): 190−203.
11
Gong Caixia, Chen Xinjun, Gao Feng, et al. Importance of weighting for multi-variable habitat suitability index model: a case study of winter-spring cohort of Ommastrephes bartramii in the northwestern Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Ocean University of China, 2012, 11(2): 241−248.
12
陈新军, 刘必林, 田思泉, 等. 利用基于表温因子的栖息地模型预测西北太平洋柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)渔场[J]. 海洋与湖沼, 2009, 40(6): 707−713.
Chen Xinjun, Liu Bilin, Tian Siquan, et al. Forecasting the fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii with SST-based habitat suitability modelling in northwestern Pacific[J]. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 2009, 40(6): 707−713.
13
Cao Jie, Chen Xinjun, Chen Yong. Influence of surface oceanographic variability on abundance of the western winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii in the Nw Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009, 381(12): 119−127.
14
赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 从检验CMIP5气候模式看CMIP6地球系统模式的发展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 643−648.
Zhao Zongci, Luo Yong, Huang Jianbin. The detection of the CMIP5 climate model to see the development of CMIP6 earth system models[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 643−648.
15
IPCC. 气候变化2014: 综合报告[R]. 日内瓦: IPCC, 2014: 1-151.
IPCC. Climate change 2014: synthesis report[R]. Geneva: IPCC, 2014: 1−151.
16
Gent P R, Danabasoglu G, Donner L J, et al. The community climate system model version 4[J]. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(19): 4973−4991.
17
Long M C, Lindsay K, Peacock S, et al. Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC)[J]. Journal of Climate, 2013, 26(18): 6775−6800.
18
Phillips S J, Anderson R P, Schapire R E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2006, 190(3/4): 231−259.
19
陈芃, 陈新军. 基于最大熵模型分析西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼栖息地分布[J]. 水产学报, 2016, 40(6): 893−902.
Chen Peng, Chen Xinjun. Analysis of habitat distribution of Argentine shortfin squid (Illex argentinus) in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean using maximum entropy model[J]. Journal of Fisheries of China, 2016, 40(6): 893−902.
20
Phillips S J. A brief tutorial on Maxent[EB/OL]. [2019−03−07]. http://biodiversityinformatics.amnh.org/open_source/maxent/.
21
Ichii T, Mahapatra K, Sakai M, et al. Life history of the neon flying squid: effect of the oceanographic regime in the North Pacific Ocean[J]. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2009, 378: 1−11.
22
陈新军, 田思泉. 西北太平洋海域柔鱼的产量分布及作业渔场与表温的关系研究[J]. 中国海洋大学学报 (自然科学版), 2005, 35(1): 101−107.
Chen Xinjun, Tian Siquan. Study on the catch distribution and relationship between fishing ground and surface temperature for Ommastrephes bartrami in the northwestern Pacific Ocean[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2005, 35(1): 101−107.
23
余为. 西北太平洋柔鱼冬春生群对气候与环境变化的响应机制研究[D]. 上海: 上海海洋大学, 2016.
Yu Wei. Response mechanism of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid to the climatic and environmental variability in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Ocean University, 2016
24
刘娜, 王辉, 张蕴斐. 基于IPCC预测结果的北太平洋海表面温度变化分析[J]. 海洋学报, 2014, 36(7): 9−16.
Liu Na, Wang Hui, Zhang Yunfei. Variation of sea surface temperature in the North Pacific based on different IPCC scenarios[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2014, 36(7): 9−16.
25
曹杰. 西北太平洋柔鱼资源评估与管理[D]. 上海: 上海海洋大学, 2010.
Cao Jie. Stock assessment and risk analysis of management strategies for neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Ocean University, 2010.
26
范江涛, 陈新军, 曹杰, 等. 西北太平洋柔鱼渔场变化与黑潮的关系[J]. 上海海洋大学学报, 2010, 19(3): 378−384.
Fan Jiangtao, Chen Xinjun, Cao Jie, et al. The variation of fishing ground of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific concerning with Kuroshio current[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University, 2010, 19(3): 378−384.
27
FAO. Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture: summary of the findings of the intergovernmental panel on climate change fifth assessment report [R]. Rome: FAO, 2016.
28
Nguyen K D T, Morley S A, Lai C H, et al. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications[J]. PLoS ONE, 2011, 6(12): e29340.
29
Alabia I D, Saitoh S I, Igarashi H, et al. Future projected impacts of ocean warming to potential squid habitat in western and central North Pacific[J]. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2016, 73(5): 1343−1356.
30
Shultz A D, Zuckerman Z C, Tewart H A, et al. Seasonal blood chemistry response of sub-tropical nearshore fishes to climate change[J]. Conservation Physiology, 2014, 2(1): cou028.
31
Jones M C, Dye S R, Pinnegar J K, et al. Modelling commercial fish distributions: prediction and assessment using different approaches[J]. Ecological Modelling, 2012, 225: 133−145.
2022年第44卷第7期
PDF下载
140
56
引用本文
BibTeX
文章信息
doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022134
  • 接收时间:2019-08-14
  • 首发时间:2026-02-01
  • 出版时间:2022-07-01
补充材料
相关文章
文章信息
作者
出版历史
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-14
  • 修回日期:2020-01-17
基金
国家自然科学基金(41876141,41906073)
作者信息
    1.上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院,上海 201306
    2.上海海洋大学 国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心,上海 201306
    3.上海海洋大学 大洋渔业资源可持续开发省部共建教育部重点实验室,上海 201306

通讯作者:

高峰,男,讲师,研究方向为渔场预报及渔业GIS。E-mail:
参考文献
分享链接
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/CN/10.12284/hyxb2022134
分享至
全文二维码

扫描看全文

引用本文
BibTeX
本文的引用情况
2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏