Article(id=1211297841012666503, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1211297835618799960, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12284/hyxb2023023, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1658073600000, receivedDateStr=2022-07-18, revisedDate=1663776000000, revisedDateStr=2022-09-22, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1766725510123, onlineDateStr=2025-12-26, pubDate=1680192000000, pubDateStr=2023-03-31, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1766725510123, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-12-26, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1766725510123, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1766725510123, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1211297835618799960, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, year='2023', volume='45', issue='4', pageStart='1', pageEnd='178', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1766725508837, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1766924525177, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1212132570683281639, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1211297835618799960, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1212132570683281640, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1211297835618799960, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=31, endPage=45, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1211297841348210833, articleId=1211297841012666503, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=EN, title=Multi-timescale variation of temperature fronts in the Yellow Sea during winter and spring and its main controlling factors analysis, columnId=1194652705852465724, journalTitle=Haiyang Xuebao, columnName=Article, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Ocean fronts variations in strength are key to the terrestrial material transport and global material cycle. Ocean temperature fronts are formed between the branches of West Pacific Boundary Current and the coastal current during the winter and spring seasons in the eastern shelf of China. In order to investigate the multi-time scale variation and main controlling factors of temperature front over the Yellow Sea under the dual influence of winter storms and shelf circulation, we investigate the coupling of low-latitude driven circulation systems and high-latitude driven winter storms on frontal variability with the methods of signal decomposition and explainable deep learning on the decadal and weather scale. On the decadal scale, empirical orthogonal decomposition and ensemble empirical modal decomposition are used to relate temperature changes in the Yellow Sea to the strength of the Yellow Sea Warm Current. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of first sea surface temperature (SST) EOF mode has obvious characteristics of the Yellow Sea Warm Current-coastal current system; the time series of the first SST EOF mode correlates well with the Yellow Sea Warm Current intensity index and is modulated by the low frequency ENSO signal. On the weather scale, this paper trains CNN-LSTM models and uses interpretability metrics to conduct the research. The results show that, in windless or weak wind conditions, the strength of ocean front is maintained by the combination of pressure gradient forces resulted from sea surface height and Coriolis forces caused by flow field. However, in the storm conditions, influenced by Kelvin Wave propagation and shear front fragmentation, the flow field is responsible for the ocean front variation. The results of this study show that big data and machine learning methods are important means to establish connections between many ocean parameters and discover some unique physical ocean processes, which have broad application prospects.

, correspAuthors=Jianhua Gao, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2023 Pratacultural Science. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Chunyu Ren, Jianhua Gao, Tao Liu, Yong Shi, Xiaomei Xu, Guang Yang), CN=ArticleExt(id=1211297844963701006, articleId=1211297841012666503, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=CN, title=冬春季黄海温度锋面的多时间尺度变化及主控因素分析, columnId=1149698756456657529, journalTitle=海洋学报, columnName=论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

海洋锋面强度变化对陆源物质输运和全球物质循环有重要作用。冬春季节,中国东部陆架区西太平洋边界流分支与沿岸流之间形成了海洋温度锋。为探究冬季风暴和陆架环流双重影响下温度锋面的多时间尺度变化及主控因素,本文以黄海为研究区,分别在年代际尺度和天气尺度,利用信号分解和可解释深度学习方法,研究了低纬度驱动的环流系统和高纬度驱动的冬季风暴对锋面变化的耦合作用。在年代际尺度,通过使用经验正交函数分解和集合经验模态分解的方法,将北黄海的温度变化与黄海暖流强度相联系。研究结果表明,黄海的海表温度经验正交函数(EOF)分解第一模态的空间分布有明显的黄海暖流—沿岸流体系特征;海表温度EOF第一模态时间序列与黄海暖流强度指标的相关性良好,且受低频率厄尔尼诺‒南方涛动信号调控。在天气尺度,对卷积神经网络−长短时记忆网络(CNN-LSTM)模型进行训练并使用可解释性指标进行分析,结果发现无风或弱风条件下,海洋锋面主要由压力梯度力和科里奥利力的地转平衡维持;但在冬季风暴条件下,受开尔文波传播和切变锋破碎的影响,流场的低频波动成为导致锋面强度变化的主因。本文研究结果表明,大数据及机器学习方法是在众多海洋参数间建立联系,并发现一些独特物理海洋过程的重要手段,具有广阔的应用前景。

, correspAuthors=高建华, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
*高建华(1973-),教授,主要从事海洋沉积动力学研究。E-mail:
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任春宇(2001-),男,黑龙江省萝北县人,主要从事物理海洋学研究。E-mail:

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任春宇(2001-),男,黑龙江省萝北县人,主要从事物理海洋学研究。E-mail:

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Journal of Oceanography, 2021, 77(4): 631−646., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1215314009146966046, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, awardId=null, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金项目( 42276170,42106158), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1215314001920180996, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1215314001928569606, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, companyId=1215314001920180996, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院 海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,江苏 南京 210023)]), AuthorCompany(id=1215314002041815820, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1215314002050204429, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, companyId=1215314002041815820, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Development of Ministry of Education, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1215314004856193965, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=EN, label=Fig. 1, caption=Mean sea surface temperature (a) and gradient (b) in the study domain during winter (december to march )

The arrows in a represent the mean 20 m water depth flow field during winter

, figureFileSmall=H4n5G6Lx9iVlbasyuN+fiQ==, figureFileBig=t5Ek39EWrgy3h1prYx4pxw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314004935885744, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=CN, label=图1, caption=研究区域冬季(12月至翌年3月)平均海表温度(a)和冬季平均温度梯度(b)

a中箭头代表研究区域冬季平均20 m水深流场

, figureFileSmall=H4n5G6Lx9iVlbasyuN+fiQ==, figureFileBig=t5Ek39EWrgy3h1prYx4pxw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314005053326262, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=The first-mode spatial distribution pattern of sea surface temperature empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition (a); time series of the first mode decomposed by EOF (opposite number) and sum of the sixth and seventh intrinsic mode functions of the Yellow Sea Warm Current intensity indicator (b), figureFileSmall=k5i2Od5JC2D+qRUZ2qDFtA==, figureFileBig=3RN8mgVuCwg/3M6JNx8W/Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314006332588985, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=CN, label=图2, caption=海表温度经验正交函数(EOF)分解第一模态空间分布(a),以及海表温度EOF分解第一模态(相反数)和黄海暖流强度指标第六、第七本征模态(IMF 6+7)时间序列变化(b), figureFileSmall=k5i2Od5JC2D+qRUZ2qDFtA==, figureFileBig=3RN8mgVuCwg/3M6JNx8W/Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314006416475068, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=EN, label=Fig. 3, caption=Spatial correlations

a. SST and zonal wind; b. SST and meridional wind; c. meridional wind field and $\Delta $SST; d. SST and surface zonal flow; e. SST and surface meridional flow; f. SST and zonal flow at 40 m water depth; g. SST and meridional flow at 40 m water depth; h. meridional wind and 20 m water depth potential temperature change

, figureFileSmall=yX3DCA3HwdoUyOLIIEcXig==, figureFileBig=2yVfLf/TvK5wIW2NGqOYcA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314006533915583, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=CN, label=图3, caption=空间相关性关系

a. 海表温度(SST)与纬向风场;b. SST与经向风场;c. 经向风场与$\Delta $SST;d. SST与表层纬向流场;e. SST与表层经向流场;f. SST与40 m水深纬向流场;g. SST与40 m水深经向流场;h. 经向风场与20 m水深位温变化量

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a. Wind sequence; b. strength of the Lubei front; c. difference between internal and external phosphate concentrations at the Lubei front; d. strength of surface fronts in Liaonan and Korea Peninsula

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a. 风向序列;b. 鲁北锋面强度;c. 鲁北锋面磷酸盐内外浓度差;d. 辽南、朝鲜半岛表层锋面强度

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SSH: sea surface heigh; V: meridional velocity

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SSH:海表高度;V:经向流速

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CNN-LSTM model structure

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层序号神经网络架构
类型输出参数参数
1输入层85×121×9核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
2卷积层85×121×32核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
3卷积层85×121×64核尺寸:(3,3)
外缘填充:1
4卷积层85×121×128核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
5卷积层85×121×64核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
6卷积层85×121×32核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
7卷积层85×121×10核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
8卷积层85×121×8核尺寸:(3,3)
外缘填充:1
9卷积层85×121×3核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
10LSTM层85×121×1
11全连接层10285×1
12全连接层10285×1
13全连接层10285×1
14全连接层10285×1
), ArticleFig(id=1215314008480071694, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=CN, label=表S1, caption=

CNN-LSTM模型架构

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
层序号神经网络架构
类型输出参数参数
1输入层85×121×9核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
2卷积层85×121×32核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
3卷积层85×121×64核尺寸:(3,3)
外缘填充:1
4卷积层85×121×128核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
5卷积层85×121×64核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
6卷积层85×121×32核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
7卷积层85×121×10核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
8卷积层85×121×8核尺寸:(3,3)
外缘填充:1
9卷积层85×121×3核尺寸:(1,1)
外缘填充:0
10LSTM层85×121×1
11全连接层10285×1
12全连接层10285×1
13全连接层10285×1
14全连接层10285×1
), ArticleFig(id=1215314008601706514, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=EN, label=Table S2, caption=

The mean integrated gradient of nine kinds of parameters which is input to the CNN-LSTM model

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
纬向流速/10−5经向流速/10−5海表高度/10−5合计/10−5
当天1.6831.7251.8875.295
1天前2.3871.1540.8574.398
2天前0.7252.5580.8574.140
合计4.7955.4373.60113.833
), ArticleFig(id=1215314008849170453, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297841012666503, language=CN, label=表S2, caption=

CNN-LSTM模型9个输入变量的平均积分梯度

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
纬向流速/10−5经向流速/10−5海表高度/10−5合计/10−5
当天1.6831.7251.8875.295
1天前2.3871.1540.8574.398
2天前0.7252.5580.8574.140
合计4.7955.4373.60113.833
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冬春季黄海温度锋面的多时间尺度变化及主控因素分析
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任春宇 1 , 高建华 1, * , 刘焘 1 , 石勇 1 , 徐笑梅 1 , 杨光 1
海洋学报 | 论文 2023,45(4): 31-45
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海洋学报 | 论文 2023, 45(4): 31-45
冬春季黄海温度锋面的多时间尺度变化及主控因素分析
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任春宇1 , 高建华1, * , 刘焘1, 石勇1, 徐笑梅1, 杨光1
作者信息
  • 1 南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院 海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,江苏 南京 210023
  • 任春宇(2001-),男,黑龙江省萝北县人,主要从事物理海洋学研究。E-mail:

通讯作者:

*高建华(1973-),教授,主要从事海洋沉积动力学研究。E-mail:
Multi-timescale variation of temperature fronts in the Yellow Sea during winter and spring and its main controlling factors analysis
Chunyu Ren1 , Jianhua Gao1, * , Tao Liu1, Yong Shi1, Xiaomei Xu1, Guang Yang1
Affiliations
  • 1Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Development of Ministry of Education, School of Geographic and Oceanographic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
出版时间: 2023-03-31 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023023
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海洋锋面强度变化对陆源物质输运和全球物质循环有重要作用。冬春季节,中国东部陆架区西太平洋边界流分支与沿岸流之间形成了海洋温度锋。为探究冬季风暴和陆架环流双重影响下温度锋面的多时间尺度变化及主控因素,本文以黄海为研究区,分别在年代际尺度和天气尺度,利用信号分解和可解释深度学习方法,研究了低纬度驱动的环流系统和高纬度驱动的冬季风暴对锋面变化的耦合作用。在年代际尺度,通过使用经验正交函数分解和集合经验模态分解的方法,将北黄海的温度变化与黄海暖流强度相联系。研究结果表明,黄海的海表温度经验正交函数(EOF)分解第一模态的空间分布有明显的黄海暖流—沿岸流体系特征;海表温度EOF第一模态时间序列与黄海暖流强度指标的相关性良好,且受低频率厄尔尼诺‒南方涛动信号调控。在天气尺度,对卷积神经网络−长短时记忆网络(CNN-LSTM)模型进行训练并使用可解释性指标进行分析,结果发现无风或弱风条件下,海洋锋面主要由压力梯度力和科里奥利力的地转平衡维持;但在冬季风暴条件下,受开尔文波传播和切变锋破碎的影响,流场的低频波动成为导致锋面强度变化的主因。本文研究结果表明,大数据及机器学习方法是在众多海洋参数间建立联系,并发现一些独特物理海洋过程的重要手段,具有广阔的应用前景。

温度锋面  /  大数据分析  /  冬季风暴  /  黄海暖流  /  沿岸流

Ocean fronts variations in strength are key to the terrestrial material transport and global material cycle. Ocean temperature fronts are formed between the branches of West Pacific Boundary Current and the coastal current during the winter and spring seasons in the eastern shelf of China. In order to investigate the multi-time scale variation and main controlling factors of temperature front over the Yellow Sea under the dual influence of winter storms and shelf circulation, we investigate the coupling of low-latitude driven circulation systems and high-latitude driven winter storms on frontal variability with the methods of signal decomposition and explainable deep learning on the decadal and weather scale. On the decadal scale, empirical orthogonal decomposition and ensemble empirical modal decomposition are used to relate temperature changes in the Yellow Sea to the strength of the Yellow Sea Warm Current. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of first sea surface temperature (SST) EOF mode has obvious characteristics of the Yellow Sea Warm Current-coastal current system; the time series of the first SST EOF mode correlates well with the Yellow Sea Warm Current intensity index and is modulated by the low frequency ENSO signal. On the weather scale, this paper trains CNN-LSTM models and uses interpretability metrics to conduct the research. The results show that, in windless or weak wind conditions, the strength of ocean front is maintained by the combination of pressure gradient forces resulted from sea surface height and Coriolis forces caused by flow field. However, in the storm conditions, influenced by Kelvin Wave propagation and shear front fragmentation, the flow field is responsible for the ocean front variation. The results of this study show that big data and machine learning methods are important means to establish connections between many ocean parameters and discover some unique physical ocean processes, which have broad application prospects.

temperature front  /  big data analysis  /  winter storms  /  Yellow Sea Warm Current  /  coastal currents
任春宇, 高建华, 刘焘, 石勇, 徐笑梅, 杨光. 冬春季黄海温度锋面的多时间尺度变化及主控因素分析. 海洋学报, 2023 , 45 (4) : 31 -45 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2023023
Chunyu Ren, Jianhua Gao, Tao Liu, Yong Shi, Xiaomei Xu, Guang Yang. Multi-timescale variation of temperature fronts in the Yellow Sea during winter and spring and its main controlling factors analysis[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2023 , 45 (4) : 31 -45 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2023023
海洋锋是重要的中尺度海洋现象,狭义上可定义为性质明显不同的两种或多种水体间的狭长过渡带;而广义上可泛指任一种海洋环境参数的跃变带[1],根据发生跃变参数的不同可分为温度锋、盐度锋和密度锋等[2]。海洋锋是天然的水体屏障,可导致污染物[3]、营养盐[4-5]、沉积物[6-7]以及生物种群在锋面处富集。但在外力作用下,锋面结构受到破坏,锋面内物质可发生跨锋面运输[8-9]。该过程是陆源物质由近岸输运至深海,并参与全球物质循环的关键物理机制。因此,锋面强度变化具有显著的沉积、环境和生态学效应。
受沿岸流和陆架环流(西太平洋边界流及其分支)的影响,我国东部陆架区在冬春季节存在显著的温度锋面[10];复杂的锋面过程与多重因素相叠加,对我国东部陆架区“冬储夏输”的物质输运格局产生重要影响[11-13]。受控于冬季风暴和陆架环流的双重影响,我国近岸地区的锋面过程具有显著的多时间尺度变化特征[12-13]:冬季风暴驱动下,锋面在天气尺度上经历生成−加强−减弱−破碎变化过程[11];而在年际/年代际尺度上,冬季风暴和西太边界流分别有着各自的变化周期和振幅,两种趋势相叠加导致锋面变化特征显著且机制复杂[14-15]。因此,在多时间尺度上分析近海锋面变化特征及其主控因素,是深刻了解我国东部陆架海物质循环和输运规律,认识沉积体系形成、水环境变化以及生态系统演化的关键。
锋面变化及其影响机制有多种研究手段:遥感解译可以分析锋面的多时间尺度变化[16],地球化学示踪也可在长时间尺度上揭示锋面变化的多重效应[6, 11],但二者均无法提供直接的动力学解释;现场观测和数值模拟虽是了解锋面变化动力机理的有效手段[17-18],但所能覆盖的时间和空间尺度均有限。海洋动力学参数获取能力的提升,以及大数据与神经网络研究的兴起,为使用神经网络研究海洋锋面变化提供了新的契机。神经网络方法在海洋科学目标识别[19-20]、数值预报[21-22]以及数据同化[23]等研究中已得到广泛使用。但是,基于大数据和神经网络的研究仍存在两方面困难:(1)物理海洋大数据为多种不同频率的信号叠加而成,需要采用数理方式将其分离,以进行混合尺度研究;(2)作为黑箱模型,对神经网络模型的可解释性还有待加强。
黄海位于我国东部陆架区,其海洋锋面发育受到源自高纬的冬季风暴和来自低纬的洋流系统共同作用。在冬春季节,表层海温受北黄海沿岸流和黄海暖流余脉控制(图1a),在黄海暖流与沿岸流之间形成锋面(图1b),因此,该区域海洋锋面的强弱与沿岸流和陆架环流密切相关[24]。然而,已有研究多从年内尺度(季节变化)对黄海海洋锋面进行分析,天气尺度和年际/年代际变化及主控因素的研究仍相对缺乏。
基于以上认识,本文将大数据分析技术运用于黄海海洋锋面变化的多时间尺度研究。另外,针对大数据方法存在的两个问题,本文拟采用以下解决方案:针对第一个问题,利用经验正交函数(EOF)分解和集合经验模态(EEMD)分解将不同频率信号进行分离,在不同时间尺度上分析黄海海表温度(SST)分布的主控因素,并将其与更为低频的气候指数相联系;针对第二个问题,通过训练卷积神经网络−长短时记忆网络(CNN-LSTM)模型并将其与积分梯度法结合,获得深度学习模型可解释性指标,并结合模式数据,将年代际的物理海洋数据服务于天气尺度的锋面变化机制分析,以揭示极端天气下锋面变化机制。
本文的模式资料主要来自欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)发布的全球物理海洋再分析数据集(日平均)、全球物理海洋分析预报数据集(小时平均)和ERA5再分析数据集。
考虑到由于地形分辨率和潮汐等因素的限制,全球海洋再分析数据在沿岸和近海地区的使用受到一定限制,本研究选用高分辨率全球物理海洋再分析数据集(https://resources.marine.copernicus.eu/product-detail/GLOBAL_MULTIYEAR_PHY_001_030/INFORMATION)进行分析。以往的研究表明,此数据集海表高度与验潮仪之间的相关系数在0.78~0.82之间,可近似反映近岸的物理海洋参数变化[25]。我国学者在黄、渤海的研究也证明该数据集结果与野外观测对应良好[26-27]。该数据集建立在 Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean(NEMO)数值模型基础之上,水平分辨率为(1/12)°,垂向上共分为50层,其流场和表面强迫数据源于ECMWF中心的ERA-Interim再分析数据[28]。卫星高度计(来源于AVISO)、遥感海表温度(获得自美国国家环境天气预报中心(NECP)或美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA))以及实测温盐剖面(源自CORIOLIS数据中心)数据通过降阶卡尔曼滤波方法同化至该数据集中,同时三维多元模态分解被用于对预测误差进行分析[29]
利用1993年4月1日至2020年3月31日的日平均同化数据集,并与Modis遥感数据获得的海表温度进行对比。结果显示,二者的均方误差在黄海的绝大部分地区均小于2,可反映实测海表温度情况。而在山东半岛和朝鲜半岛西岸的河口地区,受入海径流影响,误差相对较大;但上述区域距离沿岸流和黄海暖流间的温度锋面较远,不在本文的研究范围。
风场数据来源的ERA5再分析数据集,由ECMWF发布,是2006年开始的ERA-Interim再分析数据集的迭代版本。其模式由综合预报系统(IFS)Cy41r2得出,同化方法为四维变分同化,时间分辨率为逐小时,空间分辨率为(1/4)°[30]。该模式风速与实测数据对应情况较好[31],且与使用的海洋再分析数据集的表面强迫相关联。
此外,本文使用的Niño3指数来自NOAA(https://psl.noaa.gov
经验正交函数分解是提取参数空间模态及其时间序列变化的有效方法[32],可将黄海表层温度场分解为不随时间变化的空间函数和随时间变化的时间函数,分别讨论海表温度的空间场和时间序列变化。
集合经验模态分解是基于经验模态分解(EMD)的模态混叠现象和末端效应的一种改进算法。该方法通过对原始序列信息施加噪声,将原始信号分为数个本征模态函数(IMFs),每个IMF又可进一步分离出不同时间尺度的模态信息[33]。本文使用EEMD分解黄海暖流的强度指标,将气候指标与黄海区域的表层温度变化相联系。
卷积神经网络(CNN)和长短时记忆网络(LSTM)是当前深度神经网络常用的两种架构。CNN基本结构由输入层、卷积层、取样层、全连接层和输出层构成[34],常用于处理空间物理数据,可在节省算力的前提下进行误差较低的变量预报[35-36]。LSTM则是基于循环神经网络(RNN)[6-8]的一种改进模式,它在神经网络的基础上加入输入门、输出门与遗忘门3个逻辑单元,在时间序列数据处理中具有独特优势。本文借助两种网络的各自优势,使用CNN-LSTM神经网络建立物理海洋参数与海表温度间的深度学习模型,使其在处理兼具时空特征的数据时更具优势[37]
基于N-S方程分析及前人研究结果[17]可知,由科里奥利力和压强梯度力之间的地转平衡以及地转调整是锋面维持的原因。而温度梯度的形成和破碎过程则可根据输运方程表示为
$ \begin{split}\frac{\partial }{\partial {t}}\left(\frac{\partial {T}}{\partial {x}}\right)&+\frac{\partial {u}}{\partial {x}}\frac{\partial {T}}{\partial {x}}+\frac{\partial {v}}{\partial {x}}\frac{\partial {T}}{\partial {y}}+{u}\frac{\partial }{\partial {x}}\left(\frac{\partial {T}}{\partial {x}}\right)+{v}\frac{\partial }{\partial {y}}\left(\frac{\partial {T}}{\partial {x}}\right)\\&=\frac{\partial }{\partial {x}}\left({{A}}_{{z}}\frac{{\partial }^{2}{T}}{\partial {{z}}^{2}}\right)+\frac{1}{{{C}}_{{p}}}\frac{\partial {H}}{\partial {x}},\\[-15pt]\end{split} $
式中,左边第1项为温度梯度的时间变化,第2和第3项为应变项,第4和第5项为平流项;右边的第1项为垂向混合项,第2项为海表热通量的梯度;T为温度;t为时间;Az为垂向加速度;Cp为海水热容;H为海表的净热通量。
前人研究表明,潮汐对黄海锋面的作用主要发生在夏季,此时锋面的类型为潮汐作用引起的混合锋[38-39];而冬季该地的锋面往往被认为是冷暖环流系统引起的切变锋[24, 40],潮汐作用较小,而在基于数值模式的机制分析中也往往忽略潮汐对锋面波动的影响[17, 41]。此外,本文在训练过程中也发现,加入潮汐参数对机器学习模型拟合的误差提升不大。综上,在考虑节省算力的基础上,本研究在后续的分析中忽略了潮汐的作用。仅使用水深20 m流场及海表高度场作为输入变量,并提取1993−2020年冬季(12月至翌年3月)共3 100个实验数据集,其中,前2 800组数据为训练集,后300组数据为测试集。构建CNN-LSTM模型过程中,使用GELU作为激活函数,输入参数为当天、前1天及前2天的海表高度异常值(与通常的冬季风暴集聚−豫驰过程及其引起波动传播的时间尺度相一致)、20 m水深(黄海暖流主轴于北黄海所在的大致层位)经向及纬向流速(表S1)。
深度学习模型在研究中大多作为黑箱使用,尽管其结果比传统机器学习更精准,但仍需对所得结果的过程和机理进一步分析[42]。为此,本文引入积分梯度法进行可解释性参数计算[43-44],该方法可在选择基准数据的基础上,通过计算路径积分得到每个输入数据格点的积分梯度(式(2))。使用SmoothGrad方法对典型风暴事件的日均数据进行降噪后[45],再分别计算各数据点的积分梯度。
$ {\rm{IntegratedGrad}}s_{i}(x)=\left(x_{i}-x_{i}^{\prime}\right) \times \int_{\alpha=0}^{1} \frac{\partial F\left[x^{\prime}+\alpha \times\left(x-x^{\prime}\right)\right]}{\partial x_{i}} {\rm{d}} \alpha, $
式中,x为模型输入;x′代表基准值;i指第i个维度;IntegratedGrad代表各格点的积分梯度。
研究区海表温度的EOF第一模态时空分布的空间模态显现出明显的黄海暖流—沿岸流之间的锋面结构(图2a);时间上,可见显著的季节与年际/年代际波动(图2b)。空间模态高值区与黄海暖流主轴边界大致重合(图S2a)。为进一步分析黄海暖流的年际/年代际变化特征及其对研究区海表温度的影响,本文沿37°N断面,提取40 m水深层位的位温最高值作为黄海暖流强度指标,并对其进行EEMD分解。结果显示(图S2b图S2e):黄海暖流指标点第一至第五模态函数表征其高频信号,体现了天气尺度的月季变化;第六和第七本征模态函数表征并主导了黄海暖流强度的年际变化;第八至第十二本征模态函数则代表了黄海暖流强度的年代际变化,其中,第六加第七本征模态函数在冬季与黄海海表温度的EOF第一模态时间序列具有较强的相关性(−0.78,图2b)。
在年代际尺度上,本文主要聚焦于海洋物理参数的变化,未考虑大气强迫影响。而在天气尺度上,风场的高频变化,尤其冬季风暴的脉冲式信号,会主导锋面的消长[46-47]。另外,南北向风与海表温度在黄海暖流主轴存在较弱的负相关(图3a);而东西向风与海表温度则在山东半岛东部海域呈弱正相关(图3b)。这说明,虽然年际/年代际尺度上,大气强迫无法主控海表温度及锋面的变化,但在天气尺度上,冬季风暴与黄海暖流主轴区域的海表温度变化仍存在较强相关性(图3c)。
但在整个海区均受冬季风暴风切应力影响的情况下,负相关区域不可能仅仅局限在山东半岛沿岸的狭窄地带。为此,本文进一步展示了表层及次表层海流体系与海表温度间的相关性(图3d图3g):黄海暖流主轴从低纬向高纬输送了大量暖水,导致主轴附近表层和次表层温度升高。另外,在主轴东侧海域的表层,出现一条南北向狭窄的负相关区域(图3e),这可能表征了黄海暖流主轴以东靠近朝鲜半岛一侧的表层水体,存在向北输运的通道。由于南北向风场与SST,以及SST与40 m水深南北向流场的相关性,在靠近山东半岛一侧的主轴线大致重合(图3c图3e),说明山东半岛沿岸流系统与风场存在即时响应关系(图3h)。因此,在天气尺度上,风场可通过改变海表高度场和流场,间接影响海表温度。
本文选择了连续3日的海表高度场和20 m次表层流场作为输入变量,SST为输出变量;训练CNN-LSTM模型,分析冬季风暴和近似无风条件下,锋面变化的主控参数,以及海洋锋面变化对冬季风暴的滞后响应。训练结果显示,仅使用海表高度场和流场已能近似对海表温度空间分布进行拟合,且在绝大多数锋面区域,预测变量与实际变量间平均均方误差小于1.0(图 S1)。误差较大的区域主要分布在鸭绿江河口附近和渤海沿岸区域,这可能由于上述区域入海河流的径流数据缺失所致。
本文首先利用积分梯度法,计算了测试集中的积分梯度,以研究不同变量及不同海区积分梯度的相对大小及空间分布规律。
从变量类型来看,由流场造成的科里奥利力和由海表高度场导致的压强梯度力大致在同一数量级[17],因此两者在训练得到的神经网络模型中的积分梯度(可近似理解为权重总和)相近(表 S1)。从时间维度来看,一天前的纬向流速和两天前的经向流速在神经网络模型中具有相对较大的积分梯度,这与以往研究中陆架开尔文波传播速度也大致对应[17, 48],说明温度锋面变化相较冬季风暴具有滞后性。
变量积分梯度的空间分布,表征了研究区海表温度对不同区域物理场变化的敏感性差异。纬向流速积分梯度的空间分布显示(图4a),海表温度在山东半岛北部和辽东半岛南部海区较为敏感;而经向流速的积分梯度空间分布表明(图4b),黄海暖流主轴区有相对较高的积分梯度。
前述结果表明,天气尺度上,研究区海表温度空间分布受控于沿岸流、黄海暖流和海表高度,且冬季风暴是最主要触发机制。另外,风暴导致的物理场变化会进一步控制锋面的形成‒强化‒减弱‒破碎,该过程的物理解释目前存在争议。一方面,有研究认为,冬季风暴可导致渤海的开尔文波产生,并在北风豫驰期间逆时针方向传播,其导致的地转调整会通过海表高度场引起流场变化,进而造成切变锋破碎[17, 49];另一方面,亦有学者从密度跃层急剧变化导致的斜压不稳定,从而引起水体交换的角度对这一现象进行解释[50]。为定量分析冬季风暴对温度锋面的影响,本文以2019年12月至2020年3月为典型时间段,并在3条主要锋面内外选取3组共6个点位(图1b图1c),以锋面外位温减锋面内位温,表征冬季风暴影响下的锋面强度变化。
结果显示,随着冬季风暴信号的增强(图5a),鲁北(图5b)、辽东和朝鲜半岛西岸(图5d)的锋面均减弱。这一过程在2020年2月13−20日的连续强风暴期间更为明显(以此作为后续案例分析),且靠近山东半岛沿岸锋面的表层对风暴的响应最为强烈。
进一步分析 3.1节和3.3节的结果可发现:(1)研究区海表温度EOF的第一模态空间分布与黄海暖流−沿岸流系统的空间分布高度一致;(2)表征黄海暖流强度的主控本征模态函数,即年际变化信号,与研究区海表温度EOF的第一模态时间序列相关性良好;(3)CNN-LSTM模型中经向流速积分梯度中有沿黄海暖流主轴的高值区。上述现象表明,黄海暖流是黄海海表温度时空变化的主控因素。
为揭示黄海暖流‒锋面‒气候事件间的相互影响机制,本文首先分析了黄海3条主要锋面强度与黄海暖流之间的关系(图6a)。结果显示,受距离黄海暖流主轴远近的影响,鲁北沿岸锋面的强度最强,朝鲜锋面和辽南锋面的锋面相对较弱。从相关性上来看,黄海暖流与锋面的强度关系在辽东半岛为正相关;而在山东半岛北岸和朝鲜半岛西岸随黄海暖流强度的增大,二者相关性呈现先正后负的变化。这可能是由于,随着黄海暖流增强,其与沿岸水体间的参数差异逐渐增大,导致锋面强度增强;但增强到一定程度后,黄海暖流与沿岸流间会由于剪切作用引起锋面内外水体交换,并使锋面减弱。此外,在本文使用的模式数据中,辽东半岛东部锋面与黄海暖流强度存在单调正相关关系;这似乎表明,辽南沿岸流主要受控于黄海暖流,并非独立沿岸流,这与以往的认知有较大的差异,有待于进一步研究和验证。
黄海暖流强度指标的第八本征模态函数与Niño3指数的对应关系较为一致;而将Niño3进行EEMD后,在其主控的第三本征模态函数中可进一步体现这种对应性。由此可见,ENSO事件可通过影响黄海暖流而间接改变锋面强度(图6b)。这是由于,厄尔尼诺期间,北赤道流强度更大且分叉点北移导致黑潮增强[51];而黄海暖流作为其分支流,强度也相应增大进而对锋面产生影响。由于本研究的时间范围为27 a,而太平洋年代际振荡(PDO/IPO)的周期为20~30 a[52-53],计算结果没有体现PDO和IPO的低频振荡。
为进一步在天气尺度上探究冬季风暴与锋面强度间的关系,本文以2020年2月13‒20日冬季风暴为典型案例(图7a),通过对神经网络模型可解释性指标以及再分析数据集进行分析,在更高的时间分辨率上,讨论冬季风暴对物理场的影响。
结果显示,冬季风暴期间,山东半岛北岸、朝鲜半岛西岸锋面的强度较低,而辽东半岛东岸锋面则较高(图7b);同时,整个黄海海域均经历一次显著的退水−增水过程(图7c)。在这一海面低频波动过程中,朝鲜半岛西岸和辽东半岛东岸水位的周期和振幅几乎保持一致,但山东半岛东岸则与二者有显著差异,即水位的振幅更大且相位滞后。这说明,冬季风暴影响下黄海水位波动信号为逆时针传播,这有助于沿岸流的增强,且强化了其与黄海暖流间的剪切作用并使锋面减弱,促进了锋面内外的水体交换[46]
神经网络可解释性的积分梯度指标也显示(图7d),在近似无风阶段,9个变量共同维持SST分布格局,其中两日前的经向流速所占比重最大,而代表速度场的变量权重则在风暴发生阶段显著上升(2.15~2.19),海表高度变量权重随之发生响应。这进一步说明,冬季风暴通过驱动流场变化,改变海表温度及锋面强度。N-S方程关键项主要包括科里奥利力、水平非线性项、压强梯度力、表层切应力、低层切应力和水平黏性项等因子[54]。Wang等[17]的研究通过结合在冬季风暴过程中,科里奥利力和压强梯度力的空间分布从地转平衡建立过程的角度阐述了锋面的高频波动过程。因此,本文也采用此方法主要针对这两项进行逐格点计算,探讨冬季风暴对物理场的影响。
结果显示,风暴过程中,物理海洋场的变化大体可分为黄海西岸沿岸流退水、黄海暖流增水和黄海东岸沿岸流增水3个阶段。黄海西部的沿岸流首先对冬季风暴产生响应,该沿岸流在以往的研究中被认为是风生流,直接受控于风场的驱动[55]。在这一过程中,渤海海峡的水体在偏北风的驱动下向东南流动并在山东半岛北岸堆积,从而引起鲁北沿岸流的增强并生成开尔文波[17];而随着鲁北沿岸流的进一步增强,高海面信号沿黄海西岸逆时针传播,使整个黄海海面高度降低(图8a图8c),同时增强的鲁北沿岸流引起了切变锋破碎以及锋面内外水体的混合,降低了锋面强度。这一物理机制在基于ROMS数值模式和水文观测的研究中已经给予佐证[27, 41],本文的神经网络模型的积分梯度分布也同样显示,海表高度的高值区及其传播主导了研究区海表温度分布(图8g图8h)。
海面降低过程中,在离岸海区逐渐建立起南向以及西向的压强梯度力,此时黄海暖流通过地转调整向北逆风流动。初期,由于整体处于低水位状态,黄海暖流主轴垂向上表现为上层向南输运而下层向北输运(37°N纬向断面,图9a),且山东半岛北岸流场整体偏东 (122°E经向断面,图9c)。随着黄海暖流进一步增强,纬向断面的黄海暖流主轴垂向上变为整体向北输运(图9b);同时,经向断面暖水舌范围明显加宽,导致鲁北沿岸流被向岸挤压(图9d)。总体而言,这一时期整个海域呈低水位状态,压强梯度力变化不大(图10c图10d图10g图10h),而在辽东半岛东岸和朝鲜半岛西岸,科里奥利力在离岸海域增强,近岸地区减弱(图10a图10b图10e图10f)标志了黄海海槽区域流场的显著变化。随着这一阶段黄海暖流向北输运的增强,位于鲁北锋面和朝鲜锋面随之也增强重建。
伴随着风暴衰减,之前在研究区南部堆积的水体,在北向正压梯度驱动下,沿黄海东岸向北输运。这一过程以东边界的朝鲜沿岸流增强为主要特征,且其增水信号同样呈逆时针传播(图8d图8f)。当水位波动的信号逆时针传播至辽东半岛南岸时,导致辽东半岛南岸的切变锋强度降低,从而解释了该锋面相较于其他两个锋面的滞后性。与减水阶段相似,增水阶段的信号传播同样主导了海表温度的分布格局;而不同的是,增水阶段的路径变宽,上述变化在可解释性神经网络模型中也得到体现(图8h图8j)。需要注意的是,相较于减水阶段,增水阶段的积分梯度高值区出现在经向流速这一参数上,这可能是由于此前向南输运的水体并非堆积在研究区域内,而是在研究区域以外的南侧东海海区所致。
综上,在冬季风暴初期,山东半岛北岸和朝鲜半岛西岸的流速切变锋的锋面结构随着沿岸流的增强而被破坏,促进了锋面内外的水体交换;而在风暴的中后期,锋面强度又随着黄海暖流的增强而提高。但在辽东半岛东岸锋面则出现相反的变化:风暴初期,模式数据中可见较强的锋面;风暴中后期辽东半岛南岸沿岸流的加强又导致锋面减弱。总而言之,从天气尺度来看,风暴导致的流场变化,造成了水位波动,进一步通过地转调整,主导了锋面的波动,这种波动与黄海暖流−沿岸流之间的强度博弈密切相关。
在年代际尺度上,本文通过EOF和EEMD方法提取不同频率信号,结果表明:黄海的海表温度EOF第一模态的空间分布有明显的黄海暖流−沿岸流体系特征;海表温度EOF第一模态时间分布与黄海暖流强度指标的相关性良好,且受低频率ENSO信号调控。
此外,辽东半岛东岸锋面与黄海暖流的强度呈单调正相关。这表明,在本文所分析的模式中,辽南沿岸流与黄海暖流可能同属一个环流体系。山东半岛北岸锋面与朝鲜半岛西岸的锋面则随着黄海暖流强度的增强呈现先正后负的相关性变化,这说明,黄海暖流增强到一定程度时,会提高其与沿岸流间的剪切作用,从而降低锋面强度。
在天气尺度上,通过构建CNN-LSTM模型,并使用积分梯度法对锋面与冬季风暴的关系进行解释。研究发现,在风暴影响下,受开尔文波传播和切变锋破碎的影响,流场是导致锋面变化的主要因素:北风强迫导致山东半岛北部的水体堆积,并触发逆时针传播的开尔文波信号,鲁北沿岸流同时加强;而在风暴豫驰阶段,由于地转调整和黄海南部堆积水体的正压梯度作用,研究区依次经历黄海暖流增强以及朝鲜沿岸流增强阶段。
本文的研究结果表明,大数据方法在大空间和多时间尺度上,揭示多因子影响下的海洋动力过程等方面具有独特优势,但其机理的解释仍需借助于现场观测与数值模拟等手段。
  • 国家自然科学基金项目( 42276170,42106158)
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2023年第45卷第4期
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doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023023
  • 接收时间:2022-07-18
  • 首发时间:2025-12-26
  • 出版时间:2023-03-31
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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-18
  • 修回日期:2022-09-22
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国家自然科学基金项目( 42276170,42106158)
作者信息
    1 南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院 海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,江苏 南京 210023

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*高建华(1973-),教授,主要从事海洋沉积动力学研究。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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