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Article(id=1211297836138893656, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1211297835618799960, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12284/hyxb2023033, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1648483200000, receivedDateStr=2022-03-29, revisedDate=1664467200000, revisedDateStr=2022-09-30, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1766725508961, onlineDateStr=2025-12-26, pubDate=1680192000000, pubDateStr=2023-03-31, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1766725508961, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-12-26, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1766725508961, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1766725508961, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1211297835618799960, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, year='2023', volume='45', issue='4', pageStart='1', pageEnd='178', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1766725508837, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1766924525177, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1212132570683281639, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1211297835618799960, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1212132570683281640, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1211297835618799960, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=17, endPage=30, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1211297836352803161, articleId=1211297836138893656, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=EN, title=Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise, columnId=1194652705852465724, journalTitle=Haiyang Xuebao, columnName=Article, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Based on the extreme value theory of non-stationary sequences, this study carried out the quantitative analysis of the effect of sea level rise on the exceedance probability of extreme water levels. A new method for the estimation of extreme water level with sea level rise was proposed by adopting the overall exceedance probability of extreme water level within the design lifetime of coastal facilities as a critical constraint. With the incorporation of sea level rise in the location parameter of Gumbel distribution, the new method allows the adjustment of the annual exceedance probability of extreme water levels along with sea level rise over time. The validity of the proposed method was examined using the long term sea level measurement data at 10 tide gauge stations globally. Using the five global mean sea level rise scenarios projected by IPCC, the extreme water levels for different design lifetime of coastal facilities with sea level rise were estimated, and the return periods of the extreme water levels were also evaluated.

, correspAuthors=Junning Pan, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2023 Pratacultural Science. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Dongmei Xie, Junning Pan, Hongchuan Wang, Fan Yang, Xiaofeng Luo), CN=ArticleExt(id=1211297840043790759, articleId=1211297836138893656, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=CN, title=考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位计算, columnId=1149698756456657529, journalTitle=海洋学报, columnName=论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

本研究基于非平稳序列极值理论，定量分析极端水位事件年超越概率受海平面上升的影响；以工程设计使用年限内极端水位发生概率作为控制条件，构建考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法；结合平均海平面的长期变化过程，推算海平面上升下的极值水位。基于全球10个验潮站历史水位观测资料，验证历史平均海平面长期变化与高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数变化的一致性以及构建方法的合理性。结合政府间气候变化专门委员会对海平面上升的预测，推算和对比分析不同海平面上升情景下的极值水位，并评估相应极值水位在当前极值分布中的重现期。

, correspAuthors=潘军宁, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
*潘军宁，男，教授级高级工程师，主要从事海岸波浪数值模拟和物理模型试验技术、海岸防护工程方面的研究。E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=版权所有©《海洋学报》编辑部 2023
谢冬梅，潘军宁，王红川，等. 考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位计算[J]. 海洋学报，2023，45(4)：17–30Xie Dongmei，Pan Junning，Wang Hongchuan, et al. Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(4)：17–30
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谢冬梅（1988-），女，四川省德阳市人，博士后，主要从事海洋灾害与防灾减灾方面研究。E-mail:

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谢冬梅（1988-），女，四川省德阳市人，博士后，主要从事海洋灾害与防灾减灾方面研究。E-mail:

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谢冬梅（1988-），女，四川省德阳市人，博士后，主要从事海洋灾害与防灾减灾方面研究。E-mail:

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articleId=1211297836138893656, xref=3, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1215313998401164092, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, companyId=1215313998392775485, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3Key Laboratory of Port, Waterway and Sedimentation Engineering of the Ministry of Transport, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210024, China)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1215314002155066309, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 1, caption=Annual mean sea level and its linear regression for Macao tide gauge station between the year 1925 and 2017, figureFileSmall=HK5DAmwkhXNANuDzOyn+vw==, figureFileBig=LG5voYHQPQQ9E+TEjfvZPg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002243146696, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图1, caption=澳门验潮站1925–2017年平均海平面及其线性趋势, figureFileSmall=HK5DAmwkhXNANuDzOyn+vw==, figureFileBig=LG5voYHQPQQ9E+TEjfvZPg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002339615692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 2, caption=Linear trends of mean sea levels with running time window ranging from 20 a to 80 a at the 10 tide gauge stations, figureFileSmall=L0UbT2j3fQokP4CLP8ec6A==, figureFileBig=jBgW1RQfUpd6AbRhuSAAmw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002440278994, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图2, caption=20~80年滑动时窗下各验潮站平均海平面的线性趋势, figureFileSmall=L0UbT2j3fQokP4CLP8ec6A==, figureFileBig=jBgW1RQfUpd6AbRhuSAAmw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002524165073, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 3, caption=Relative errors of the linear trends of mean sea levels with running time window ranging from 20 a to 80 a at the 10 tide gauge stations, figureFileSmall=RQFBKw8MTfilSQH2zcWYNw==, figureFileBig=9sjIBeMa3TftObOcQPetBw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002620634071, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图3, caption=20～80 a滑动时窗下各验潮站处平均海平面线性趋势的相对误差, figureFileSmall=RQFBKw8MTfilSQH2zcWYNw==, figureFileBig=9sjIBeMa3TftObOcQPetBw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002704520155, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 4, caption=Time series of mean sea level and location parameters of Gumbel distribution with the 62 a running time window at Macao tide gauge station

The mean sea level and location parameters of Gumbel distribution are results subtracted by the corresponding time averaged values

, figureFileSmall=biG6y8WBtn1jpFyC0MkeQA==, figureFileBig=ISI2lycpk2ktEdzCikzvjw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002788406240, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图4, caption=62 a滑动时窗下澳门验潮站平均海平面和高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数历时曲线

图中平均海平面和高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数均为减去相应历时范围内平均值的结果

, figureFileSmall=biG6y8WBtn1jpFyC0MkeQA==, figureFileBig=ISI2lycpk2ktEdzCikzvjw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002880680932, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 5, caption=Comparison between location parameters of the Gumbel distribution for the annual high water levels (solid lines) and the linear summation of mean sea level and location parameters of the Gumbel distribution for the annual high water levels subtracted by annual mean sea level (dash lines)

The location parameters of Gumbel distribution are results subtracted by the corresponding time-averaged values

, figureFileSmall=Lb5XiwnefRafnQrtrSLAhQ==, figureFileBig=Ae0Pi9sEbmglTj3Z8UjKGw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314002972955623, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图5, caption=62 a滑动时窗下各验潮站高水位位置参数（实线）与去除年平均海平面的高水位位置参数和相应平均海平面线性叠加（虚线）的比较

图中各高水位位置参数为减去相应历时范围内平均值的结果

, figureFileSmall=Lb5XiwnefRafnQrtrSLAhQ==, figureFileBig=Ae0Pi9sEbmglTj3Z8UjKGw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003048453097, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 6, caption=Linear regressions of location parameters of the Gumbel distribution for the annual high and low water levels using the long term mean sea level at Macao tide gauge station, figureFileSmall=QSH7CzkkqWAjDVARjfsawg==, figureFileBig=PioGkOUAYsSsUKRGk0lmnA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003149116397, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图6, caption=澳门验潮站平均海平面与高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数的线性回归, figureFileSmall=QSH7CzkkqWAjDVARjfsawg==, figureFileBig=PioGkOUAYsSsUKRGk0lmnA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003258168305, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 7, caption=Prediction of the global mean sea level rise relative to the year of 2020 under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios

The plot is adapted from Figure SMP.8(d) in the IPCC AR6[1] and only the medium values of the prediction results for different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were given

, figureFileSmall=Av8b0nuaW3pw4K99alDVIA==, figureFileBig=NE4fBEI1+JNJ2L2nIKOpIQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003346248689, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图7, caption=不同温室气体排放情景下全球海平面相对于2020年的上升预测

根据IPCC第6次评估报告[1]中图SPM.8（d）修改，仅给出各温室气体排放情景下海平面上升预测中值

, figureFileSmall=Av8b0nuaW3pw4K99alDVIA==, figureFileBig=NE4fBEI1+JNJ2L2nIKOpIQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003438523381, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 8, caption=Comparion of extreme high and low water levels for different design lifetime under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios at Macao tide gauge station

The solid lines represent results using the method constructed in this paper; the dash lines represent results by adding the predicted mean sea level rise within the design lifetime to the current extreme water level without considering sea-level rise; the black dotted lines represent results without considering sea level rise

, figureFileSmall=gP4my4fLGHpcT/X8cibh5A==, figureFileBig=rvE+wsevXDSKQ2sQlQp6Mw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003560158204, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图8, caption=不同温室气体排放情景下澳门验潮站处各工程设计使用年限极值高、低水位比较

实线为采用本文构建方法计算的考虑海平面上升的极值水位（结合IPCC第6次评估报告中对海平面上升的预测），虚线以当前极值水位线性叠加工程设计使用年限内IPCC对海平面上升的预测值作为极值水位，黑色圆点线（NoSLR）为不考虑海平面上升的极值水位

, figureFileSmall=gP4my4fLGHpcT/X8cibh5A==, figureFileBig=rvE+wsevXDSKQ2sQlQp6Mw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003648238593, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 9, caption=Comparison of extreme high and low water levels for the design lifetime of 50 a under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios

The difference of extreme high/low water levels are the extreme high/low water levels subtracted by the results calculated by the method constructed in this paper under the greenhouse gas emission scenario SSP1-1.9 at the corresponding tide gauge stations

, figureFileSmall=PyBFF3os+28TyxOjwpkspQ==, figureFileBig=p8+ie08sgRTTfQq3hE8fNA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003748900866, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图9, caption=工程设计使用年限为50 a时不同温室气体排放情景下各验潮站极值高、低水位比较

图中极值高/低水位差值为各验潮站极值高/低水位减去相应验潮站处温室气体极低排放情景（SSP1-1.9）下本文构建方法计算的“IPCC预测趋势”下极值高/低水位的值

, figureFileSmall=PyBFF3os+28TyxOjwpkspQ==, figureFileBig=p8+ie08sgRTTfQq3hE8fNA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003857952776, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 10, caption=Return periods of extreme high and low water levels with the design lifetime of 50 a in the current extreme value distribution (the year of 2020) estimated by different methods

The white-filled area denotes the summation of extreme high/low water level and the predicted sea-level rise within the design lifetime of coastal facilities by IPCC; the shaded area denotes extreme high/low water level estimated by the method proposed in this study based on the predicted sea-level rise by IPCC

, figureFileSmall=C2BjZV2zFPPH6wAdWjKQ2w==, figureFileBig=HHS5GLVU7T5UucDD6hwvvw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314003954421772, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图10, caption=工程设计使用年限为50 a时各验潮站处不同方法推算的极值高、低水位在当前极值分布（2020年）中的重现期

白色填充部分由2020年极值高、低水位线性叠加工程设计使用年限内IPCC海平面上升预测值作为极值水位推算得到；阴影部分由采用本文构建方法、结合IPCC海平面上升预测计算的极值水位推算得到

, figureFileSmall=C2BjZV2zFPPH6wAdWjKQ2w==, figureFileBig=HHS5GLVU7T5UucDD6hwvvw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314004038307855, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Fig. 11, caption=Exceedance probability of different return water levels for the Macao tide gauge station under the SSP5-8.5 green house gas emission scenario estimated by IPCC, figureFileSmall=ThUZFLohmro8Sgc/EIOT7w==, figureFileBig=3gzWdOIUcvKTUUH4Ss+FYg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314004109611026, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=图11, caption=SSP5-8.5情景下澳门验潮站处不同工程设计使用年限相应极值高、低水位事件的年超越概率, figureFileSmall=ThUZFLohmro8Sgc/EIOT7w==, figureFileBig=3gzWdOIUcvKTUUH4Ss+FYg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1215314004214468628, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Tide gauge stations and the corresponding water level data information

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号验潮站位置水位数据覆盖年限水位数据序列长度/a
1哈利法克斯（Halifax）44.667°N, 63.583°W1920–201394
2波士顿（Boston）42.353°N, 71.053°W1922–201998
3纽波特（Newport）41.505°N, 71.327°W1931–201989
4波特兰（Portland）43.657°N, 70.247°W1912–2019108
5查尔斯顿（Charleston）32.782°N, 79.925°W1922–201998
6维多利亚（Victoria）48.417°N, 123.367°W1909–2018110
7洛杉矶（Los Angeles）33.720°N, 118.272°W1924–201996
8旧金山（San Francisco）7.807°N, 122.465°W1898–2016119
9库克斯港（Cuxhaven）53.867°N, 8.717°E1918–2018101
10澳门（Macao）22.200°N, 113.550°E1925–201793
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004281577496, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

验潮站及相应水位资料信息

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
序号验潮站位置水位数据覆盖年限水位数据序列长度/a
1哈利法克斯（Halifax）44.667°N, 63.583°W1920–201394
2波士顿（Boston）42.353°N, 71.053°W1922–201998
3纽波特（Newport）41.505°N, 71.327°W1931–201989
4波特兰（Portland）43.657°N, 70.247°W1912–2019108
5查尔斯顿（Charleston）32.782°N, 79.925°W1922–201998
6维多利亚（Victoria）48.417°N, 123.367°W1909–2018110
7洛杉矶（Los Angeles）33.720°N, 118.272°W1924–201996
8旧金山（San Francisco）7.807°N, 122.465°W1898–2016119
9库克斯港（Cuxhaven）53.867°N, 8.717°E1918–2018101
10澳门（Macao）22.200°N, 113.550°E1925–201793
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004340297756, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Pearson correlation coefficient of mean sea level and location parameters for the annual high and low water level with the 62 a running time window at the 10 tide gauge stations

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
验潮站高水位位置参数低水位位置参数
哈利法克斯（Halifax）0.992 00.998 2
波士顿（Boston）0.994 80.991 6
纽波特（Newport）0.997 20.991 4
波特兰（Portland）0.997 00.974 9
查尔斯顿（Charleston）0.996 60.918 9
维多利亚（Victoria）0.944 50.805 2
洛杉矶（Los Angeles）0.984 80.814 1
旧金山（San Francisco）0.995 60.985 4
库克斯港（Cuxhaven）0.969 70.890 2
澳门（Macao）0.978 50.966 5
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004428378142, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

62 a滑动时窗下各验潮站平均海平面与高、低水位位置参数的皮尔逊相关系数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
验潮站高水位位置参数低水位位置参数
哈利法克斯（Halifax）0.992 00.998 2
波士顿（Boston）0.994 80.991 6
纽波特（Newport）0.997 20.991 4
波特兰（Portland）0.997 00.974 9
查尔斯顿（Charleston）0.996 60.918 9
维多利亚（Victoria）0.944 50.805 2
洛杉矶（Los Angeles）0.984 80.814 1
旧金山（San Francisco）0.995 60.985 4
库克斯港（Cuxhaven）0.969 70.890 2
澳门（Macao）0.978 50.966 5
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004516458528, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Linear trends of mean sea-level and location parameters for the annual high and low water level with the 62 a running time window at the 10 tide gauge stations

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
验潮站线性上升速率/（cm·a−1）
平均海平面高水位位置参数低水位位置参数
哈利法克斯（Halifax）0.3170.3050.387
波士顿（Boston）0.2620.3410.256
纽波特（Newport）0.2710.3850.245
波特兰（Portland）0.1870.2810.164
查尔斯顿（Charleston）0.3160.3250.145
维多利亚（Victoria）0.0840.1140.075
洛杉矶（Los Angeles）0.0850.0720.047
旧金山（San Francisco）0.2000.2470.148
库克斯港（Cuxhaven）0.2000.6060.266
澳门（Macao）0.1630.3190.217
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004629704740, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

62 a滑动时窗下各验潮站平均海平面和高、低水位位置参数线性上升速率

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
验潮站线性上升速率/（cm·a−1）
平均海平面高水位位置参数低水位位置参数
哈利法克斯（Halifax）0.3170.3050.387
波士顿（Boston）0.2620.3410.256
纽波特（Newport）0.2710.3850.245
波特兰（Portland）0.1870.2810.164
查尔斯顿（Charleston）0.3160.3250.145
维多利亚（Victoria）0.0840.1140.075
洛杉矶（Los Angeles）0.0850.0720.047
旧金山（San Francisco）0.2000.2470.148
库克斯港（Cuxhaven）0.2000.6060.266
澳门（Macao）0.1630.3190.217
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004738756648, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

The fitting results of location parameters of Gumbel distribution in the year of 2020 for the annual high water level at the 10 tide gauge stations

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数验潮站位置参数/cm尺度参数/cm极值水位/cm
25 a一遇50 a一遇80 a一遇100 a一遇
哈利法克斯（Halifax）234.412.0272.8281.2286.9289.6
波士顿（Boston）496.615.7546.8557.9565.3568.8
纽波特（Newport）233.514.4279.6289.7296.5299.7
波特兰（Portland）634.012.1672.7681.2686.9689.7
查尔斯顿（Charleston）311.414.9359.1369.5376.6379.9
维多利亚（Victoria）330.312.2369.3377.9383.7386.4
洛杉矶（Los Angeles）336.25.3353.2356.9359.4360.6
旧金山（San Francisco）405.69.6436.3443.1447.6449.8
库克斯港（Cuxhaven）837.044.2978.41 009.51 030.41 040.3
澳门（Macao）340.230.4437.4458.8473.2480.0
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004818448428, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

各验潮站2020年高水位极值的耿贝尔分布拟合结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数验潮站位置参数/cm尺度参数/cm极值水位/cm
25 a一遇50 a一遇80 a一遇100 a一遇
哈利法克斯（Halifax）234.412.0272.8281.2286.9289.6
波士顿（Boston）496.615.7546.8557.9565.3568.8
纽波特（Newport）233.514.4279.6289.7296.5299.7
波特兰（Portland）634.012.1672.7681.2686.9689.7
查尔斯顿（Charleston）311.414.9359.1369.5376.6379.9
维多利亚（Victoria）330.312.2369.3377.9383.7386.4
洛杉矶（Los Angeles）336.25.3353.2356.9359.4360.6
旧金山（San Francisco）405.69.6436.3443.1447.6449.8
库克斯港（Cuxhaven）837.044.2978.41 009.51 030.41 040.3
澳门（Macao）340.230.4437.4458.8473.2480.0
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004919111728, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

The fitting results of location parameters of Gumbel distribution in the year of 2020 for the annual low water level at the 10 tide gauge stations

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数验潮站位置参数/cm尺度参数/cm极值水位/cm
25 a一遇50 a一遇80 a一遇100 a一遇
哈利法克斯（Halifax）–26.57.7–35.5–37.0–37.9–38.3
波士顿（Boston）26.09.514.913.012.011.5
纽波特（Newport）–7.510.6–19.9–22.0–23.2–23.7
波特兰（Portland）186.57.9177.3175.7174.8174.4
查尔斯顿（Charleston）7.611.3–5.6–7.8–9.1–9.7
维多利亚（Victoria）–24.110.5–36.4–38.4–39.6–40.1
洛杉矶（Los Angeles）57.04.951.350.349.849.5
旧金山（San Francisco）119.56.7111.7110.4109.6109.3
库克斯港（Cuxhaven）212.430.4176.9170.9167.5166.0
澳门（Macao）28.412.314.011.610.29.6
), ArticleFig(id=1215314004998803510, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1211297836138893656, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

各验潮站2020年低水位极值的耿贝尔分布拟合结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数验潮站位置参数/cm尺度参数/cm极值水位/cm
25 a一遇50 a一遇80 a一遇100 a一遇
哈利法克斯（Halifax）–26.57.7–35.5–37.0–37.9–38.3
波士顿（Boston）26.09.514.913.012.011.5
纽波特（Newport）–7.510.6–19.9–22.0–23.2–23.7
波特兰（Portland）186.57.9177.3175.7174.8174.4
查尔斯顿（Charleston）7.611.3–5.6–7.8–9.1–9.7
维多利亚（Victoria）–24.110.5–36.4–38.4–39.6–40.1
洛杉矶（Los Angeles）57.04.951.350.349.849.5
旧金山（San Francisco）119.56.7111.7110.4109.6109.3
库克斯港（Cuxhaven）212.430.4176.9170.9167.5166.0
澳门（Macao）28.412.314.011.610.29.6
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考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位计算
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谢冬梅 1, 2 , 潘军宁 2, * , 王红川 3 , 杨氾 3 , 罗小峰 3
海洋学报 | 论文 2023,45(4): 17-30
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海洋学报 | 论文 2023, 45(4): 17-30
考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位计算
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谢冬梅1, 2 , 潘军宁2, * , 王红川3, 杨氾3, 罗小峰3
作者信息
  • 1 河海大学 港口海岸与近海工程学院，江苏 南京 210098
  • 2 南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏 南京 210029
  • 3 南京水利科学研究院 港口航道泥沙工程交通行业重点实验室，江苏 南京 210024

    • 谢冬梅（1988-），女，四川省德阳市人，博士后，主要从事海洋灾害与防灾减灾方面研究。E-mail:

通讯作者:

*潘军宁，男，教授级高级工程师，主要从事海岸波浪数值模拟和物理模型试验技术、海岸防护工程方面的研究。E-mail:
Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise
Dongmei Xie1, 2 , Junning Pan2, * , Hongchuan Wang3, Fan Yang3, Xiaofeng Luo3
Affiliations
  • 1College of Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
  • 3Key Laboratory of Port, Waterway and Sedimentation Engineering of the Ministry of Transport, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210024, China
出版时间: 2023-03-31 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023033
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摘要
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本研究基于非平稳序列极值理论，定量分析极端水位事件年超越概率受海平面上升的影响；以工程设计使用年限内极端水位发生概率作为控制条件，构建考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法；结合平均海平面的长期变化过程，推算海平面上升下的极值水位。基于全球10个验潮站历史水位观测资料，验证历史平均海平面长期变化与高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数变化的一致性以及构建方法的合理性。结合政府间气候变化专门委员会对海平面上升的预测，推算和对比分析不同海平面上升情景下的极值水位，并评估相应极值水位在当前极值分布中的重现期。

海平面上升  /  极值水位  /  非平稳序列极值理论  /  工程设计使用年限  /  发生概率

Based on the extreme value theory of non-stationary sequences, this study carried out the quantitative analysis of the effect of sea level rise on the exceedance probability of extreme water levels. A new method for the estimation of extreme water level with sea level rise was proposed by adopting the overall exceedance probability of extreme water level within the design lifetime of coastal facilities as a critical constraint. With the incorporation of sea level rise in the location parameter of Gumbel distribution, the new method allows the adjustment of the annual exceedance probability of extreme water levels along with sea level rise over time. The validity of the proposed method was examined using the long term sea level measurement data at 10 tide gauge stations globally. Using the five global mean sea level rise scenarios projected by IPCC, the extreme water levels for different design lifetime of coastal facilities with sea level rise were estimated, and the return periods of the extreme water levels were also evaluated.

sea level rise  /  extreme sea level  /  extreme value theory of non-stationary sequences  /  design lifetime  /  occurrence probability
谢冬梅, 潘军宁, 王红川, 杨氾, 罗小峰. 考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位计算. 海洋学报, 2023 , 45 (4) : 17 -30 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2023033
Dongmei Xie, Junning Pan, Hongchuan Wang, Fan Yang, Xiaofeng Luo. Calculation of extreme water level with the effect of sea level rise[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2023 , 45 (4) : 17 -30 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2023033
正文
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1 引言
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在气候变化背景下，全球平均海平面呈持续上升趋势，给人类社会的生存和发展带来严重挑战，是当今国际社会普遍关注的全球性热点问题。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）最新发布的第6次评估报告（AR6），1980–2020年间全球平均海平面以2.6 mm/a的速率上升[1]。同时段中国沿海海平面上升速率为3.4 mm/a，高于全球平均水平，且呈现加速上升趋势[2]。近年来，海平面上升加剧了风暴潮灾害，加大了洪涝威胁，减弱了港口功能，使按原设计标准建设的沿海防潮工程防御能力降低，对环境和人类活动构成直接威胁，严重影响了沿海地区经济的发展。随着城市化进程加快，沿海地区面临的海平面上升风险将进一步加大。
海岸/海洋工程一般采用基于频率分析的多年一遇高、低水位作为设计标准。该极值水位是海岸/海洋工程、防洪防潮工程设计的重要参数，是决定工程能否满足安全需求的重要参考依据。在当前气候变化背景下，充分考虑未来海平面上升的影响、构建海平面上升下极值水位计算方法、合理推算海岸/海洋工程极值水位，显得尤为迫切和重要。在海岸/海洋工程设计中，一般基于历史水位数据，采用极值分布函数，如极值I型（耿贝尔）分布等，对年极值高、低水位进行频率分析，在此基础上叠加设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值，作为极值水位[3-8]。采用该种方法确定极值水位存在3种缺陷：（1）不能反映海平面变化过程中极值水位的变化；（2）由于不能确定采用该种方法推算的极值水位年超越概率随时间的变化，因此不能定量评估极值水位事件在工程设计使用年限内的发生概率；（3）这种方法从偏安全的角度出发，极值高水位可能偏高，导致工程成本增加。
为了量化海平面上升对极值水位的影响，另一种思路是评估当前极值水位在海平面上升下的重现期缩短情况。由于气候变化对风暴潮的强度和发生频率都可能产生影响，但是这种影响目前很难量化，因此在多数研究中，假设风暴潮的统计概率不变[9-13]。基于此，目前研究常结合全球或者区域性海平面预测，在历史水位数据上叠加设计使用年限内海平面升高的估算值，重构海平面上升下的水位数据序列[14]。在此基础上，采用极值分布函数对重构水位序列进行频率分析，确定当前极值水位在海平面上升下的重现期[14-18]。就工程设计而言，这种方法仍然存在缺陷，即不能实现基于海平面上升过程的极值水位调整。
为了克服以上方法在确定极值水位上的不足，本文旨在基于非平稳序列极值理论，提出考虑海平面上升影响的年极值水位统计分析新方法，合理推算考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位。
2 考虑海平面上升影响的极值水位计算方法
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2.1 方法构建基础
在平均海平面变化和台（飓）风等过程的作用下，极端水位序列常呈现趋势性变化特点[11, 19-22]，非平稳性显著[23]。传统水位频率分析方法的一个基本前提假设是水位序列满足平稳随机的要求，即序列的分布类型和统计参数不随时间变化[24]。由于非平稳性的存在，传统基于平稳假设的水位频率分析方法的适用性受到挑战，有必要发展非平稳水位序列频率分析方法[24-25]。基于非平稳序列极值理论的研究表明，通过构造时变分布参数对传统极值模型进行改进，可以刻画非平稳水位序列的变化特征[20, 26-27]。对相互独立的非平稳年极值水位序列xi（i=1,2,···,M），其随时间变化的概率分布表达式如下：
$ x_{i} \sim F_{x}\left(x_{t} \mid \mu_{t}, \sigma_{t},\xi_t\right) \text{，} $
式中，μt为随时间变化的位置参数；σt为尺度参数；ξt为形状参数。就非平稳水位序列而言，使用时间作为水位序列分布参数的解释变量可以比较直观地描述水位序列的变化，其中水位序列的趋势性变化主要由位置参数体现[24-25, 28]。
近年研究表明，极端水位（如年超越累积频率为99%的高水位）长期变化与平均海平面基本保持一致，呈现上升趋势[20, 29-32]。以平均海平面作为水位序列极值分布位置参数的协变量，可以反映水位序列的趋势性变化[28]，即位置参数可写作：
$ \mu_{t}=g(r, t) \text{，} $
式中，r为海平面长期变化速率。仅考虑海平面长期变化下水位序列的趋势性变化时，非平稳年极值水位序列的概率分布表达式可写作：
$ x_{i} \sim F_{x}\left(x_{t} \mid \mu_{t}, \sigma ,\xi\right) . $
假定非平稳年极值水位xi相互独立且$x_{i} \sim F_{x}\left(x_{t} \mid \mu_{t}, \sigma,\xi\right)$，xi （i=1,2,···,M）的联合概率分布可表示为
$ \begin{split}&P\left(x \mid x_{1}<x, x_{2}<x, \cdots, x_{M}<x\right)=F_{x}\left(x \mid \mu_{1}\right)\cdot \\&\qquad\qquad F_{x}\left(x \mid \mu_{2}\right) \cdots F_{x}\left(x \mid \mu_{M}\right) .\end{split} $
当位置参数μt不随时间变化时，即μ1=μ2=···=μM=μ，时间序列xi为平稳随机过程，式（4）可简化为
$ P\left(x \mid x_{1}<x, x_{2}<x, \cdots , x_{M}<x\right)=\left[F_{x}(x \mid \mu)\right]^{M} . $
非平稳序列极值统计模型能够体现水位极值随时间或协变量的变化情势，进而定量分析极端水位事件年超越概率受海平面上升的影响，是本文构建海平面长期变化下极值水位计算方法的基础。
2.2 方法构建
本方法基于非平稳序列极值理论，定量分析极端水位事件年超越概率受海平面上升的影响。以工程设计使用年限内极值水位发生概率作为控制条件，构建海平面上升下的极值水位统计模型；结合平均海平面的长期变化过程，合理推算海平面上升下的极值水位。后文将对本方法进行详细描述。
2.2.1 不考虑海平面上升
在进行海岸/海洋工程设计时，应根据海岸/海洋工程的功能和重要性，结合相应规范，如《水运工程设计通则》（JTS 141–2011）[33]的要求，确定工程设计使用年限[33]。同时，根据《港口与航道水文规范》（JTS 145–2015）[34]等要求，确定工程水文参数的重现水平和重现期。重现水平和重现期用于描述概率分布中较高端的分位值，即“极端的极值”。在实际应用中把达到某重现期下重现水平的极端事件称为T年一遇，T即为重现期。目前对重现期存在两种解释：（1）大于等于或小于等于一定量级的水文要素值出现一次的平均间隔年数[34-35]；（2）每年的极值超过相应重现水平的预期概率为1/T[36-37]。一般情况下，工程设计使用年限越长，则工程水文参数的重现期越长，设计时使用的校核环境荷载越大，结构越强[33]。在本文中，为简易起见，取工程设计使用年限与极值水位重现期相同。极值水位重现期与累积概率的关系如下：
$ T=\frac{1}{1-F\left(x_{T}\right)} \text{，} $
式中，T为极值水位重现期（单位：a）；xT为不考虑海平面上升时重现期为T的极值水位；F（xT）为年极值水位累积概率分布函数。
不考虑海平面上升时，工程设计使用年限内每年出现超越极值水位xT的概率相同，即：
$ P_{n}=P=1-F\left(x_{T}\right), n=1,2,3, \cdots, N \text{，} $
式中，Pn为工程设计使用年限内第n年（相对于起始年）出现超越极值水位xT的概率；P为工程设计使用年限内每年出现超越极值水位xT的概率；N为工程设计使用年限（单位：a）。结合式（7）和式（5），可得工程设计使用年限内出现超越极值水位xT的概率计算公式：
$ P=1-(1-P)^{N}=1-\left[F\left(x_{T}\right)\right]^{N} . $
2.2.2 考虑海平面上升
由于气候变化对风暴潮的强度和发生频率都可能产生影响，但是这种影响目前很难量化，因此在多数的研究中，假设风暴潮的统计概率不变[9-13]。在本文中，也假设风暴潮的统计概率不变，极端水位的趋势性变化主要由海平面变化贡献，具体验证将在3.1节中展开。
考虑海平面上升时，工程设计使用年限内第n年出现超越极值水位sx的概率可表示为
$ p_{n}=1.0-F\left(s x-\Delta x_{n}\right), n=1,2,3, \cdots, N \text{，} $
式中，sx为考虑海平面上升时的极值水位；Δxn为第n年海平面上升值（相对于起始年）。可以看出，随着海平面上升，工程设计使用年限内每年出现超越极值水位sx的概率也逐渐变化，即极值高水位的年超越概率随着海平面上升逐渐增大，极值低水位的年超越概率随着海平面上升逐渐减小。
结合式（4）和式（9），海平面上升时工程设计使用年限内出现超越极值水位sx的概率Ps即可由下式求得：
$ P_{s}=1.0-\prod_{n=1}^{N} F\left(s x-\Delta x_{n}\right) . $
当采用耿贝尔分布进行年极值水位序列频率分析时，年极值水位的累积概率可写为
$ F(x)=1.0-\exp \left(-\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}\right) \text{，} $
式中，μ为位置参数，反映时间序列的均值水平；σ为尺度参数，反映时间序列的离散程度。在假设风暴潮的统计特征不变的情况下，海平面长期变化对极值水位的影响主要由位置参数μ反映。基于此，将式（11）代入式（10），即可得：
$ P_{s}=1.0-\prod_{n=1}^{N}\left\{1.0-\exp\left[-\frac{s x-\left(\mu_{0}+\Delta x_{n}\right)}{\sigma}\right]\right\} \text{，} $
式中，μ0为计算起始年份的位置参数。
考虑海平面上升时工程设计使用年限内出现极值水位sx的概率与不考虑海平面上升时相等，即Ps=P。当海平面上升过程确定时，给定工程设计使用年限N，结合式（8）和式（12），即可求解考虑海平面上升时的极值水位sx。
例如，假设海平面以r的速率线性上升，则Δxn=nr，代入式（12），可得：
$ P_{s}=1.0-\prod_{n=1}^{N}\left[1.0-\exp \left(-\frac{s x-\mu_{0}}{\sigma}\right) \cdot \exp \left(\frac{nr}{\sigma}\right)\right] . $
令Ps=P，即可求解海平面线性上升时的极值水位sx。
由于无法直接对式（12）进行求解，采用黄金分割法，进行计算机编程求解极值水位sx。具体实施时，设定包含sx的初始求解区间下限为当前极值水位，上限为当前极值水位线性叠加工程设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值，即sx的初始求解区间为[xT，xT+SLN]，其中SLN为工程设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值。以Ps=P作为控制条件，通过取试探点和进行函数值比较，使包含sx的搜索区间不断缩短以逼近sx，最终求得考虑海平面上升的极值水位。
3 计算实例和结果分析
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本文首先采用耿贝尔分布对10个验潮站处年极值高、低水位序列进行频率分析，确定相应耿贝尔分布参数（位置参数和尺度参数），并分析验证历史平均海平面长期变化与高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数变化的一致性。在此基础上，推算各验潮站处截至2020年的高、低水位耿贝尔分布参数，作为当前不考虑海平面上升的极值分布参数基准值。根据IPCC最新发布的第6次评估报告中对海平面上升的预测，采用本文构建的考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法，对比分析不同海平面上升情景下极值水位的变化，并评估相应极值水位在当前极值分布中的重现期。
3.1 历史资料分析
本文主要采用夏威夷大学海平面中心（University of Hawaii Sea Level Center，UHSLC）和平均海平面永久服务中心（Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level，PSMSL）提供的全球验潮站水位数据进行历史资料分析，其中UHSLC提供逐时水位数据，PSMSL提供逐年海平面数据。为获得年平均海平面和年极值高、低水位的长期变化趋势，根据以下两个条件对UHSLC提供的全球逐时水位数据进行筛选：（1）验潮站历史水位资料序列覆盖年限接近100 a；（2）验潮站逐年水位资料有效率超过50%。基于上述条件，共选出9个覆盖长时间序列水位数据的验潮站，具体信息列于表1。该9个验潮站的历年逐时水位由当地基准面起算，由海平面高度（从当地基准面起算）和水位高度（从海平面起算）相加而成，包含海平面变化信息。除上述9个验潮站外，另有澳门验潮站1925–2017年历年逐时水位数据，该水位数据由澳门海图基准面起算，由海平面高度（从澳门海图基准面起算）和水位高度（从海平面起算）相加而成。
本文构建方法以平均海平面的长期变化作为年极值高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数的变化依据，量化海平面长期变化趋势对极值水位的影响。因此，首先需要对海平面长期变化趋势与年极值高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数变化趋势的一致性进行验证。采用滑动时窗法分析年平均海平面和高、低水位位置参数随时间的变化规律。由于天文潮长周期变化（包括周期为18.61 a的天文大潮）[38-39]和海平面年代际变化[40-41]会对年平均海平面的变化特征产生影响，不同滑动时窗拟合的平均海平面变化率存在差异。如图1所示澳门验潮站逐年平均海平面，该验潮站处年平均海平面呈现波动上升趋势。因此，在采用滑动时窗进行平均海平面变化分析时，首先需要对滑动时窗长度进行敏感性分析，确保采用滑动时窗拟合的平均海平面线性变化率与年平均海平面序列的长期线性变化率相同。
图2为不同滑动时窗下各验潮站平均海平面的线性上升率拟合结果。除库克斯港（Cuxhaven）和波特兰（Portland）验潮站外，各验潮站处采用不同滑动时窗拟合的平均海平面线性上升率随滑动时窗长度变化显著。对各验潮站不同滑动时窗拟合的平均海平面线性上升率与相应验潮站处年平均海平面序列的长期线性上升率进行对比，计算不同滑动时窗拟合的平均海平面线性上升率的相对误差，结果如图3所示。由图可知，多数验潮站处滑动时窗长度为60～70 a时对平均海平面变化趋势拟合最佳（图3中阴影部分）。结合多数验潮站的分析结果，本文取滑动时窗长度为62 a，用于分析平均海平面和年极值高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数随时间的变化规律。
以62 a滑动时窗末尾年份作为平均海平面和年极值高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数对应年份[8]，得到平均海平面和高、低水位位置参数历时曲线，对比分析三者变化规律。由图4可见，澳门验潮站高、低水位位置参数在平均海平面历时曲线两侧呈现一定波动，但总体上与平均海平面变化基本一致，呈现出上升趋势。其余验潮站处平均海平面与高、低水位位置参数的变化规律与澳门验潮站处类似，出于篇幅考虑此处不再详细列出。采用62 a滑动时窗，对减去年平均海平面的年极值高、低水位的耿贝尔分布位置参数进行拟合，在此基础上线性叠加相应平均海平面，与基于当地基准面的年极值高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数拟合结果进行比较。图5为各验潮站处高水位位置参数的比较结果。由图可见，两种方法所得结果十分接近，说明高水位位置参数的趋势性变化主要由平均海平面的趋势性变化贡献。各验潮站低水位位置参数的比较结果与高水位位置参数相似，在此不再详细列出。
为进一步验证年极值高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数与平均海平面变化的一致性，采用各验潮站平均海平面对相应高、低水位位置参数进行线性回归，并分别计算平均海平面与高、低水位位置参数的皮尔逊相关系数。由图6可见，高、低水位位置参数与平均海平面呈现较好线性关系。其余验潮站处平均海平面对高、低水位位置参数的线性回归结果与澳门验潮站类似，出于篇幅考虑此处不再详细列出。表2为各验潮站平均海平面与高、低水位位置参数的皮尔逊相关系数。其中，高水位位置参数与平均海平面的相关系数均接近1.0，低水位位置参数与平均海平面的相关相关系数均大于0.8，说明在各验潮站处，高、低水位位置参数与平均海平面相关性较好。
为量化平均海平面变化对年极值高、低水位位置参数变化的贡献，对62 a滑动时窗下各验潮站的平均海平面和高、低水位位置参数时间序列进行线性回归，得到各验潮站位置处相应变量的线性趋势，具体结果列于表3。除库克斯港和澳门验潮站，其余验潮站处平均海平面的上升速率占高水位位置参数的上升速率的70%以上，其中哈利法克斯和查尔斯顿验潮站处平均海平面的上升速率和高水位位置参数的上升速率基本一致。在库克斯港和澳门验潮站，平均海平面的上升速率分别占高水位位置参数上升速率的33%和51%。对各验潮站低水位位置参数而言，除查尔斯顿和洛杉矶验潮站，其余验潮站处低水位位置参数的上升速率均在平均海平面上升速率的±30%范围内。可见，各验潮站年极值高、低水位的趋势性变化主要由平均海平面长期变化贡献。此前基于全球和区域性水位观测资料的分析结果同样表明，极端水位的长期变化趋势与平均海平面基本保持一致[29-32]，且这一规律在中国沿海同样成立[20]。因此，可以采用平均海平面的长期变化对高、低水位位置参数的长期变化进行估计，定量分析海平面上升下极端水位事件的年超越概率的变化。
基于各验潮站高、低水位位置参数与平均海平面的线性回归结果，结合各验潮站多年平均海平面线性上升速率，推算各验潮站截至2020年的高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数，作为当前极值高、低水位频率分布参数和预测未来海平面上升情景下极值水位的基准值，计算结果分别列于表4和表5。
3.2 基于IPCC海平面上升预测的极值水位分析
根据IPCC最新发布的第6次评估报告中对海平面上升的预测，采用本文构建的考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法，对比分析不同海平面上升情景下极值水位的变化。IPCC第6次评估报告中不同温室气体排放情景下海平面上升预测见图7。根据IPCC第6次评估报告[1]的预测，相较于2020年，2100年全球海平面在温室气体极低（SSP1-1.9）、低（SSP1-2.6）、中等（SSP2-4.5）、高（SSP3-7.0）和极高（SSP5-8.5）排放情景下分别上升33 cm（中值，下同）、39 cm、51 cm、63 cm和72 cm。
对比分析不同方法和不同海平面上升过程下极值水位计算结果：（1）以各验潮站2020年高、低水位耿贝尔分布参数（位置参数和尺度参数）（见表4和表5）作为基准值，结合IPCC第6次评估报告中关于海平面上升的预测（“IPCC预测趋势”），采用本文第2节构建的考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法推算极值水位；（2）同样以各验潮站2020年耿贝尔分布参数作为基准值，假设平均海平面按照线性上升方式达到工程设计使用年限内IPCC第6次评估报告中的海平面上升预测值（“线性趋势”），采用本文第2节构建的考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法，推算极值水位；（3）在各验潮站2020年极值高、低水位基础上，线性叠加工程设计使用年限内IPCC第6次评估报告中海平面上升预测值作为极值水位（“线性叠加”）。
如2.2节说明，本文取工程设计使用年限与极值水位重现期相同。图8为各温室气体排放情景下澳门验潮站处不同工程设计使用年限极值高、低水位比较。由图8可以看出，在不考虑海平面上升时，随着工程设计使用年限提高，极值高水位逐渐提升，极值低水位逐渐降低。由本文构建方法推算的考虑海平面上升的极值高/低水位均高于不考虑海平面上升的极值高/低水位，且二者间差值随着工程设计使用年限提高变大，说明本文构建方法在推算考虑海平面上升影响的极值高/低水位时适用性一致。采用本文的计算方法，在考虑海平面上升下极端水位年超越概率的变化时，结合IPCC海平面上升预测计算得到的极值高/低水位均小于当前极值水位与工程设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值的线性叠加。对同一工程设计使用年限而言，由本文构建方法推算的极值高水位与当前极值高水位线性叠加工程设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值的结果相比，温室气体排放越高，前者与后者差值越大；且随着工程设计使用年限增加，两者差值增大。与当前极值低水位线性叠加工程设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值的结果相比，采用本文构建方法推算的极值低水位随着工程设计使用年限变化并不显著。对于同一工程设计使用年限，不同温室气体排放情景下极值低水位也非常接近：（1）在温室气体低（SSP1-2.6）、中等（SSP2-4.5）和高（SSP3-7.0）排放情景下，同一工程设计使用年限下极值低水位几乎相等；（2）在温室气体极低（SSP1-1.9）和极高（SSP5-8.5）排放情景下，同一工程设计使用年限下极值低水位相差不超过1.1 cm。与此同时，同一温室气体排放情景下，不同工程设计使用年限对应的极值低水位之间相差不超过0.4 cm。具体原因将在第4节详细讨论。
图9为工程设计使用年限为50 a时不同温室气体排放情景下各验潮站处不同方法计算的极值高、低水位结果比较。在不同温室气体排放情景下，相比在当前极值高水位基础上线性叠加50 a后（2070年）海平面上升预测值，由本文构建方法推算的极值高水位比前者要小7.5 ～18.0 cm，且温室气体排放量越大，两种方法计算的极值高水位差值越大。以当前极值低水位线性叠加工程设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值，将导致工程设计使用年限内极值低水位过高。可以看出，采用不同方法确定的极值水位有一定差别，会对海岸/海洋工程设计产生影响。
此外，不同海平面上升过程（即IPCC预测的海平面上升趋势和本文假设的海平面线性上升趋势）对极值高/低水位的计算结果影响有限（图9）。海平面线性上升下极值高/低水位的计算结果略大于基于IPCC中海平面上升预测的计算结果。当工程设计使用年限为50 a时，在温室气体极低和低排放情景下，由本文构建计算方法推算的不同海平面上升过程下极值高/低水位的差值均不超过0.6 cm；在温室气体中等、高和极高排放情景下，不同海平面上升过程下极值高/低水位的差值均不超过2.4 cm。
图10为工程设计使用年限为50 a时，采用不同方法推算的极值水位在当前极值分布中的重现期。采用2020年极值高水位线性叠加工程设计使用年限内IPCC海平面上升预测值作为极值高水位时，各验潮站处相应极值高水位的重现期较大：在极低（SSP1-1.9）至极高（SSP5-8.5）温室气体排放情景下，哈利法克斯、波士顿和维多利亚验潮站处相应极值高水位的重现期约达到300～900 a；波士顿、纽波特和查尔斯顿验潮站处相应极值高水位的重现期约达到200～600 a；库克斯港和澳门验潮站处相应极值高水位的重现期约达到100～160 a。采用本文构建方法、结合IPCC海平面上升预测推算的极值高水位的重现期均小于线性叠加方法所得极值高水位的重现期。在极低（SSP1-1.9）至极高（SSP5-8.5）温室气体排放情景下，哈利法克斯、波士顿和维多利亚验潮站处采用本文构建方法推算的极值高水位的重现期约为150～300 a；波士顿、纽波特和查尔斯顿验潮站处相应极值高水位的重现期约为100～200 a；库克斯港和澳门验潮站处相应极值高水位的重现期约为70～90 a。
采用本文构建方法推算的极值低水位的重现期大于线性叠加方法所得极值低水位的重现期。除库克斯港验潮站外，其余验潮站处采用线性叠加方法得到的不同温室气体排放情景下极值低水位的重现期均介于1～2 a，采用本文构建方法推算的极值低水位的重现期介于5～10 a。在克斯港验潮站，采用线性叠加方法和本文构建方法推算的极值低水位的重现期分别为4～7 a和15～20 a。
4 讨论
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相较于现有考虑海平面上升的极值水位推算方法，本文构建的方法主要有以下3个特点：（1）能考虑海平面上升下极值水位事件年超越概率在工程设计使用年限内的变化；（2）通过考虑海平面上升过程对极值水位的影响，实现工程设计使用年限内极值水位随海平面变化的调整；（3）能定量评估极值水位事件在工程设计使用年限内的发生概率。
随着海平面上升，工程设计使用年限内极值水位的超越概率会相应变化。采用本文构建的考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法，结合本文第3节分析结果，以澳门验潮站为例对不同工程设计使用年限相应极值水位在工程设计使用年限内的超越概率进行分析。图11为温室气体极高排放情景下，以2020年作为起始年，工程设计使用年限为25 a、50 a和80 a时发生超越相应极值高/低水位事件的概率随海平面上升的变化。
对极值高水位而言，由于平均海平面的不断抬升，工程设计使用年限内发生超越相应极值高水位事件的概率也会逐渐增大。如图11所示：（1）当工程设计使用年限为25 a时，由本文构建方法推算的超越相应极值高水位事件的发生概率由2021年3.0%逐渐增大为2045年的5.0%，在2034年前后约为4.0%；（2）当工程设计使用年限为50 a时，超越相应极值高水位事件的发生概率由2021年的1.0%逐渐增大为2070年的3.0%，在2050年前后约为2.0%；（3）当工程设计使用年限为80 a时，超越相应极值高水位事件的发生概率由2021年的0.4%逐渐增大为2100年的4.0%，在2072年前后约为1.2%。
对极值低水位而言，随着平均海平面的不断抬升，工程设计使用年限内发生超越相应极值低水位事件的概率则会逐渐减小：当工程设计使用年限为25 a、50 a和80 a时，发生超越相应极值低水位的概率在2021年均为11.5%左右，且随海平面上升逐渐减小。当工程设计使用年限较长时，如50 a和80 a，工程设计使用年限后期平均海平面抬升显著，发生超越相应极值低水位的概率极小。
由以上分析可见，本文构建方法可以反映海平面上升下工程设计使用年限内极值水位年超越概率的变化，这对合理评估工程设计使用年限内工程失效概率至关重要。在采用本文构建方法推算极值水位时，对极值高水位而言，应当合理考虑工程设计使用年限后期发生超越相应极值水位事件的概率；对极值低水位而言，应当注意当前发生超越相应极值低水位事件的概率。
本文构建的考虑海平面上升的极值水位计算方法目前仅考虑海平面的长期变化趋势，尚可以在以下4方面进行完善：（1）考虑潮汐过程的长周期和趋势性变化对极值水位的影响[6, 42-43]；（2）考虑气候因素导致的极端增水非平稳变化（趋势性变化）对极值水位的影响[8, 10, 22, 44-45]；（3）由于水深和潮波传播的非线性作用，导致海平面变化对高、低水位的影响并不一致，在进行极值高/低水位的计算时，可以分别考虑海平面上升对极值高/低水位的影响[46]；（4）由于引起极端水位事件和平均海平面变化的气象/气候因素存在空间差异性，可能导致极端高、低水位与平均海平面和的长期变化关系同样存在差异，在推算极值水位时需要合理加以考虑[8]。
5 结论
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在气候变化背景下，充分考虑未来海平面上升的影响、构建海平面上升下极值水位计算方法、合理推算海岸/海洋极值水位，十分迫切和重要。本文基于非平稳序列极值理论，定量分析极端水位事件年超越概率受海平面上升的影响；以工程设计使用年限内极端水位发生概率作为控制条件，构建海平面上升条件下极值水位计算方法，推算海平面上升下的极值水位。在此基础上，结合10个验潮站历史水位资料，对方法合理性进行验证。最后，结合IPCC第6次评估报告海平面上升预测，比较分析不同海平面上升情景下极值水位计算结果，并评估相应极值水位在当前极值分布中的重现期。主要结论如下：
（1）各验潮站处高、低水位耿贝尔分布位置参数与平均海平面长期变化基本一致，呈现出上升趋势，且年极值高、低水位的趋势性变化主要由平均海平面长期变化贡献。因此，可以采用平均海平面的长期变化对高、低水位位置参数的长期变化进行估计，进而定量分析海平面上升下极端高、低水位事件年超越概率的变化。
（2）在考虑海平面上升下极端水位事件年超越概率的变化时，本文构建方法推算的考虑海平面上升的极值高、低水位均低于当前极值水位与工程设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值的线性叠加。相应地，本文构建方法推算的极值高水位在当前极值高水位分布中的重现期小于线性叠加方法所得极值高水位的重现期；本文构建方法推算的极值低水位在当前极值低水位分布中的重现期大于线性叠加方法所得极值低水位的重现期。
（3）对极值高水位而言，工程设计使用年限内发生超越极值高水位事件的概率随着海平面上升而增大；对极值低水位而言，工程设计使用年限内发生超越极值低水位事件的概率随着海平面上升而减小。在采用本文构建的方法进行极值水位推算时，对极值高水位而言，应当合理考虑工程设计使用年限后期发生超越相应极值水位事件的概率；对极值低水位而言，应当注意当前发生超越相应极值水位事件的概率。
（4）在采用本文构建方法推算海平面上升下的极值水位时，当工程设计使用年限内海平面上升预测值一定时，不同海平面上升过程对极值高/低水位的计算结果影响有限。
本文构建方法可以反映海平面上升下工程设计使用年限内极值水位超越概率的逐渐变化，是一种考虑了工程设计使用年限内极端水位事件发生概率的方法，这对合理评估设计使用年限内工程失效概率至关重要。
基金
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  • 国家重点研发计划（2021YFB2600700）；河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（B210202020）；南京水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金（Y223004）
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doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023033
  • 接收时间：2022-03-29
  • 首发时间：2025-12-26
  • 出版时间：2023-03-31
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  • 收稿日期：2022-03-29
  • 修回日期：2022-09-30
基金
国家重点研发计划（2021YFB2600700）；河海大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（B210202020）；南京水利科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金（Y223004）
作者信息
    1 河海大学 港口海岸与近海工程学院，江苏 南京 210098
    2 南京水利科学研究院 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，江苏 南京 210029
    3 南京水利科学研究院 港口航道泥沙工程交通行业重点实验室，江苏 南京 210024

通讯作者:

*潘军宁，男，教授级高级工程师，主要从事海岸波浪数值模拟和物理模型试验技术、海岸防护工程方面的研究。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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