Article(id=1200456386317513606, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1200456384560100230, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12284/hyxb2024078, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1701705600000, receivedDateStr=2023-12-05, revisedDate=1711900800000, revisedDateStr=2024-04-01, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1764140705899, onlineDateStr=2025-11-26, pubDate=1722355200000, pubDateStr=2024-07-31, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1764140705899, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-11-26, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1764140705899, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1764140705899, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1200456384560100230, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, year='2024', volume='46', issue='7', pageStart='1', pageEnd='87', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=0, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1764140705480, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1764140847115, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1200456978695844173, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1200456384560100230, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1200456978695844174, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1200456384560100230, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=41, endPage=50, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1200456386569171848, articleId=1200456386317513606, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=EN, title=Relationship between abundance of Dosidicus gigas and environment factors in the offshore waters of Peru based on random forest model, columnId=null, journalTitle=Haiyang Xuebao, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Dosidicus gigas is an oceanic economic fish in the offshore waters of Peru, and its abundance is greatly affected by environmental factors. This study obtained the abundance of D. gigas through fishing logs from September to December in 2018−2021, combined with environmental factors, including surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH) and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a) acquired from satellite remote sensing. Random forest model and ArcGIS were applied to analyze the correlations between the abundance of D. gigas and environmental factors. Results showed that the distribution of the center of gravity of fishing ground was concentrated in the range of 13°−21°S, 76°−87°W during 2018−2021, and the center of gravity shifted from northwest to the southeast from September to December. The results of random forest model analysis showed that, the impact of environmental factors on the abundance and distribution of D. gigas in the offshore waters of Peru varied among different months. The optimal SST ranged from 16.3℃ to 18.5℃, The optimal SSS ranged from 35.1 to 35.4, the optimal SSH ranged from 0.55 m to 0.60 m, the optimal Chla concentration ranged from 0.18 mg/m3 to 0.46 mg/m3. The predicted CPUE values derived from the random forest model were generally consistent with the nominal CPUE distribution, indicating the suitability of the random forest model for analyzing the relationship between D. gigas and environmental factors in the offshore waters of Peru. This study is of great significance for understanding the resource dynamics of D. gigas and guiding its production.

, correspAuthors=Wenbin Zhu, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=Haiyang Xuebao, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Weitu Peng, Feng Chen, Jianxiong Li, Yixiang Zhao, Yijiang Dong, Qian Dai, Hanxiang Xu, Wenbin Zhu), CN=ArticleExt(id=1200456388603409329, articleId=1200456386317513606, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=CN, title=基于随机森林模型的秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子关系研究, columnId=1149698756456657529, journalTitle=海洋学报, columnName=论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

秘鲁外海茎柔鱼是大洋性经济鱼类,其资源丰度受环境因素变化的影响较大。研究基于2018−2021年9−12月秘鲁外海茎柔鱼的渔捞日志数据,并结合卫星遥感获取海表温度(SST)、海表盐度(SSS)、海表高度(SSH)和叶绿素a浓度(Chl a)4个环境数据,运用ArcGIS和随机森林模型分析秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子之间的关系。研究结果表明,2018−2021年9−12月茎柔鱼渔场重心分布范围集中于13°~21°S,76°~87°W海域,9−12月渔场重心呈现西北向东南方向移动趋势。随机森林模型分析结果显示,各月环境因子对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度和分布的影响存在一定的差异性,最适SST范围16.3~18.5℃,最适SSS范围35.1~35.4,最适SSH范围0.55~0.60 m,最适Chl a浓度范围0.18~0.46 mg/m3,通过随机森林模型的CPUE预测值与名义CPUE随时间变化趋势基本一致,表明随机森林模型适用于分析秘鲁外海茎柔鱼与环境因子之间的关系。本研究对了解该海域茎柔鱼资源变动规律、指导茎柔鱼生产具有重要意义。

, correspAuthors=朱文斌, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
*朱文斌(1982—),男,浙江省义乌市人,正高级工程师,主要从事渔业资源与管理研究。E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=版权所有©《海洋学报》编辑部 2024, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=ptBLPoX7NSqzLFPpg5vrpg==, magXml=oXgGDRnTv1kyGydD8aCMSQ==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=25U3kZa3aPPwM79YZDBIyw==, pdfFileSize=1630605, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=Uob9uIcxcfex5xjy71U5gg==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=rv5Kk8HYcr2eg1hlZ5Ipmw==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

彭伟图(1997—),男,湖南省娄底市人,主要研究领域为渔业资源。E-mail:

, authorsList=彭伟图, 陈峰, 李建雄, 赵艺翔, 董钇江, 戴乾, 徐汉祥, 朱文斌)}, authors=[Author(id=1200456389178029000, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200456386317513606, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=1367101299@qq.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1200456389278692302, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200456386317513606, authorId=1200456389178029000, language=EN, stringName=Weitu Peng, firstName=Weitu, middleName=null, lastName=Peng, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, address=1. Marine and Fishery Institute of Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316021, China
2. Zhejiang Marine Fisheries Research Institute/Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Fishery Resources for Key Fishing Grounds, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Key Laboratory of Sustainable Utilization of Technology Research for Fishery Resources of Zhejiang Province, Zhoushan 316021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1200456390381794258, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200456386317513606, authorId=1200456389178029000, language=CN, stringName=彭伟图, firstName=伟图, middleName=null, lastName=彭, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, address=1.浙江海洋大学 海洋与渔业研究所,浙江 舟山 316021
2.浙江省水产研究所/农村农业部重点渔场渔业资源科学观测实验站/浙江省海洋渔业资源可持续利用技术研究重点实验室,浙江 舟山 316021, bio={"content":"

彭伟图(1997—),男,湖南省娄底市人,主要研究领域为渔业资源。E-mail:

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彭伟图(1997—),男,湖南省娄底市人,主要研究领域为渔业资源。E-mail:

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Marine and Fishery Institute of Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316021, China
2. Zhejiang Marine Fisheries Research Institute/Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Fishery Resources for Key Fishing Grounds, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Key Laboratory of Sustainable Utilization of Technology Research for Fishery Resources of Zhejiang Province, Zhoushan 316021, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1200456391187100658, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200456386317513606, authorId=1200456390960608231, language=CN, stringName=李建雄, firstName=建雄, middleName=null, lastName=李, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, 2, address=1.浙江海洋大学 海洋与渔业研究所,浙江 舟山 316021
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World Oceanic Economic Soft Fish Resources and Their Fisheries[M]. Beijing: China Ocean Press, 2005: 240-264., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1200456397843460252, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200456386317513606, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=2, rfOrder=2, authorNames=null, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Markaida U, Quiñónez-Velázquez C, Sosa-Nishizaki O. Age, growth and maturation of jumbo squid Dosidicus gigas (Cephalopoda: Ommastrephidae) from the Gulf of California, Mexico[J]. 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基于随机森林模型的秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子关系研究
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彭伟图 1, 2 , 陈峰 2 , 李建雄 1, 2 , 赵艺翔 1, 2 , 董钇江 1, 2 , 戴乾 2 , 徐汉祥 1, 2 , 朱文斌 2, *
海洋学报 | 论文 2024,46(7): 41-50
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海洋学报 | 论文 2024, 46(7): 41-50
基于随机森林模型的秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子关系研究
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彭伟图1, 2 , 陈峰2, 李建雄1, 2, 赵艺翔1, 2, 董钇江1, 2, 戴乾2, 徐汉祥1, 2, 朱文斌2, *
作者信息
  • 1.浙江海洋大学 海洋与渔业研究所,浙江 舟山 316021
  • 2.浙江省水产研究所/农村农业部重点渔场渔业资源科学观测实验站/浙江省海洋渔业资源可持续利用技术研究重点实验室,浙江 舟山 316021
  • 彭伟图(1997—),男,湖南省娄底市人,主要研究领域为渔业资源。E-mail:

通讯作者:

*朱文斌(1982—),男,浙江省义乌市人,正高级工程师,主要从事渔业资源与管理研究。E-mail:
Relationship between abundance of Dosidicus gigas and environment factors in the offshore waters of Peru based on random forest model
Weitu Peng1, 2 , Feng Chen2, Jianxiong Li1, 2, Yixiang Zhao1, 2, Yijiang Dong1, 2, Qian Dai2, Hanxiang Xu1, 2, Wenbin Zhu2, *
Affiliations
  • 1. Marine and Fishery Institute of Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316021, China
  • 2. Zhejiang Marine Fisheries Research Institute/Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Fishery Resources for Key Fishing Grounds, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Key Laboratory of Sustainable Utilization of Technology Research for Fishery Resources of Zhejiang Province, Zhoushan 316021, China
出版时间: 2024-07-31 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024078
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秘鲁外海茎柔鱼是大洋性经济鱼类,其资源丰度受环境因素变化的影响较大。研究基于2018−2021年9−12月秘鲁外海茎柔鱼的渔捞日志数据,并结合卫星遥感获取海表温度(SST)、海表盐度(SSS)、海表高度(SSH)和叶绿素a浓度(Chl a)4个环境数据,运用ArcGIS和随机森林模型分析秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子之间的关系。研究结果表明,2018−2021年9−12月茎柔鱼渔场重心分布范围集中于13°~21°S,76°~87°W海域,9−12月渔场重心呈现西北向东南方向移动趋势。随机森林模型分析结果显示,各月环境因子对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度和分布的影响存在一定的差异性,最适SST范围16.3~18.5℃,最适SSS范围35.1~35.4,最适SSH范围0.55~0.60 m,最适Chl a浓度范围0.18~0.46 mg/m3,通过随机森林模型的CPUE预测值与名义CPUE随时间变化趋势基本一致,表明随机森林模型适用于分析秘鲁外海茎柔鱼与环境因子之间的关系。本研究对了解该海域茎柔鱼资源变动规律、指导茎柔鱼生产具有重要意义。

茎柔鱼  /  随机森林模型  /  资源丰度  /  环境因子

Dosidicus gigas is an oceanic economic fish in the offshore waters of Peru, and its abundance is greatly affected by environmental factors. This study obtained the abundance of D. gigas through fishing logs from September to December in 2018−2021, combined with environmental factors, including surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH) and chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a) acquired from satellite remote sensing. Random forest model and ArcGIS were applied to analyze the correlations between the abundance of D. gigas and environmental factors. Results showed that the distribution of the center of gravity of fishing ground was concentrated in the range of 13°−21°S, 76°−87°W during 2018−2021, and the center of gravity shifted from northwest to the southeast from September to December. The results of random forest model analysis showed that, the impact of environmental factors on the abundance and distribution of D. gigas in the offshore waters of Peru varied among different months. The optimal SST ranged from 16.3℃ to 18.5℃, The optimal SSS ranged from 35.1 to 35.4, the optimal SSH ranged from 0.55 m to 0.60 m, the optimal Chla concentration ranged from 0.18 mg/m3 to 0.46 mg/m3. The predicted CPUE values derived from the random forest model were generally consistent with the nominal CPUE distribution, indicating the suitability of the random forest model for analyzing the relationship between D. gigas and environmental factors in the offshore waters of Peru. This study is of great significance for understanding the resource dynamics of D. gigas and guiding its production.

Dosidicus gigas  /  random forest model  /  abundance  /  environmental factors
彭伟图, 陈峰, 李建雄, 赵艺翔, 董钇江, 戴乾, 徐汉祥, 朱文斌. 基于随机森林模型的秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子关系研究. 海洋学报, 2024 , 46 (7) : 41 -50 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2024078
Weitu Peng, Feng Chen, Jianxiong Li, Yixiang Zhao, Yijiang Dong, Qian Dai, Hanxiang Xu, Wenbin Zhu. Relationship between abundance of Dosidicus gigas and environment factors in the offshore waters of Peru based on random forest model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2024 , 46 (7) : 41 -50 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2024078
茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)隶属于头足纲(Cephalopoda),枪形目(Teuthoidea),柔鱼科(Ommastrephidae),茎柔鱼属(Dosidicus[1]。广泛分布于加利福利亚北部至智利南部的东太平洋地区[2]。茎柔鱼资源量丰富,分布范围也较广泛,营养价值较高,是远洋鱿钓渔业的主要捕捞对象[3],了解茎柔鱼资源时空变动对茎柔鱼资源可持续利用与保护起着重要作用。茎柔鱼生命周期短,生长快,其资源量变动与环境变化密切相关[4]。在渔场资源分布的研究中,资源丰度与环境因子之间的关系一直备受关注[5],历史研究发现茎柔鱼资源丰度主要受到海表温度(Sea Surface Temper,SST)、海表盐度(Sea Surface Salinity,SSS)、海表高度(Sea Surface Hight,SSH)、叶绿素a浓度(Chlorophyll a,Chl a)等环境因子影响[69]。在以往的研究中,广义线性模型(Generalized Linear Model,GLM)、广义可加模型(Generalized Additive Models,GAM)、栖息地模型、灰色系统、协同克里金法等广泛用于渔场资源分布与环境因子之间的关系分析[1013],但模型结果容易受异常值和冗余数据的影响,模型对渔业调查数据中的零值问题的处理也存在不足,选择合适的模型方法对茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子的关系进行研究至关重要。
随机森林模型(Random Forest,RF)可用于回归和分类,是以一定数量的决策树为基础,根据相应的准则对随机生成的决策树进行组合生成随机森林,由于随机森林模型是通过随机构成的决策树组成,因此可以用来模拟多重非线性关系[14]。随机森林模型从提出开始,就被许多学者在各个领域使用。随机森林引入了随机性概念,随机抽取训练样本,随机选取特征子集,有效提高了分类能力和抗噪能力,使随机森林不容易陷入过度拟合[15]。采用随机森林模型进行回归分析时,受到的离群值影响较小,在随机干扰较多的情况下表现较为稳定[16]。随机森林算法可以模拟自变量之间的复杂交互作用,且对异常值的容忍度较强[17],可有效降低环境因子交互性对模型结果的影响,提高模型分析的准确率。本文根据中国远洋鱿钓船2018−2021年9−12月在秘鲁外海的渔业生产统计数据和卫星遥感数据,采用随机森林模型对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼丰度与环境因子的关系进行研究,结果可为秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源可持续开发和利用提供科学依据。
渔业数据来源于中国2018−2021年9−12月秘鲁外海鱿钓渔船商业捕捞渔捞日志,渔捞日志记录数据包括捕捞日期、经度、纬度、手钓人数、手钓渔获量、钓机数量、机钓渔获量等。图1为2018−2021年9−12月鱿钓船作业区域,研究区域位于东南太平洋8°~22°S,75°~95°W海域。
SSS、SST、SSH数据来源于哥白尼海事服务网站(https://data.marine.copernicus.eu),时间分辨率为月,空间分辨率为0.25° × 0.25°;Chl a数据来自美国国家海洋和大气管理局(https://oceanwatch.pifsc.noaa.gov/),时间分辨率为月,空间分辨率为0.25° × 0.25°。图2为SST、SSS、SSH、Chl a月平均值的空间分布。
由于中国远洋鱿钓船的作业方式和作业时间相同,单位努力捕捞渔获量(CPUE)可以作为一种可靠的渔场柔鱼丰富度指标[18]。渔业生产数据均为点数据,遥感数据空间分辨率为0.25° × 0.25°,因此需要统一匹配生产数据和环境数据,定义0.25° × 0.25°为1个渔区,生产统计数据按经纬度0.25° × 0.25°空间分辨率进行汇总统计,并按月进行处理。按每个月计算每个渔区内的CPUE,计算公式如下:
$ \mathrm{C}\mathrm{P}\mathrm{U}\mathrm{E}=\frac{\sum {C}_{i}}{\sum {F}_{i}} \text{,} $
式中,∑Ci表示1个月内,1个0.25° × 0.25°渔区内的总产量;∑Fi表示1个0.25° × 0.25°渔区内所有船舶作业天数。
随机森林是使用重抽样(Booststrap)方法从原始训练样本中随机抽取多组训练样本,并对抽取的多组样本分别建立一个决策树的随机森林模型,然后综合多个决策树的预测,采用均值或者投票的方式得出最终的预测结果[19]。选取的测试集评估每个特征的重要性,以验证评估模型的预测性能。每个特征的重要性采用特征重要性得分(Importance Score,IS)来表示。在随机森林中选择特定变量作为分裂节点降低错误率,将每棵树的特征重要性得分进行平均,得到最终模型中每个特征的重要性得分,将特征重要性得分进行规格化,使其落在(0,1)的范围内,且所有特征重要性得分之和为1。特征重要性得分的计算方法如下[20]
$ {\mathrm{IS}}=\sum \frac{({T}_{1}-{T}_{2})}{N} \text{,} $
式中,N为训练样本数量;T1为随机森林模型中每个决策树的袋外数据误差;T2是所有袋外数据样本的特征添加随机噪声干扰后重新计算误差。
随机森林的构建与模拟过程是使用 Python 3.12.0 scikit-learn 模块进行,该过程主要包括训练样本的选择、随机森林结构创建、输入参数的确定、训练和模拟等过程。将2018−2021年9−12月秘鲁外海SST、SSS、SSH、Chl a值作为模型的输入变量,同时期鱿钓作业CPUE为输出变量,构建随机森林模型。
方均根偏移(RMSD)是预测值与实际值偏差的平方和与观测次数n 比值的平方根,能够体现数据集的离散程度[19],决定系数(R2)是自变量X引起的平方和在因变量Y的总平方和中所占的比例[21]。本研究从数据样本随机抽取70%的数据作为训练集进行建模,将剩下的30%作为测试集进行验证,将该过程重复100次,得出RMSD和R2来判断模型的预测效果。RMSD和决定系数R2计算公式如下:
$ \mathrm{R}\mathrm{M}\mathrm{S}\mathrm{D}(y,p)=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}{\sum \limits_{i=1}^{n}}{({y}_{i}-{p}_{i})}^{2}} \text{,} $
$ {R}^{2}\left(y,p\right)=1-\frac{{\sum\limits_{i=0}^{n}}{({y}_{i}-{p}_{i})}^{2}}{\sum\limits _{i=0}^{n}{({y}_{i}-\stackrel-{y})}^{2}} \text{,} $
式中,y为原来的值;p为预测值;n为样本数。
RMSD值越小,模型预测的准确性越高,R2越接近1,模型的参考价值越高,R2越接近0,模型的参考价值越低[22]
本研究基于秘鲁外海茎柔鱼丰度数据,运用核函数[23]进行分析秘鲁外海9−12月茎柔鱼相对资源丰度的时空分布情况,计算公式如下:
$ f(x)=\frac{1}{n{b}^{d}}{\sum\limits _{i=1}^{n}}K\left[\frac{1}{b}\left(x-{x}_{i}\right)\right] \text{,} $
式中,K是核函数;b为带宽;n是在带宽范围内的已知点数目;d是数据的维度。
通过构建Seaborn相关性热力矩阵研究年份(Year)、月份(Month)、经度(Lon)、纬度(Lat)、SSS、SST、SSH、Chl a等各变量之间的相关性。图3下三角为显著性水平(*表示p < 0.05;**表示p < 0.01;***表示p < 0.001),方框大小与相关系数的绝对值成正比,上三角为相关系数。SSS与SST、SSH、Chl a相关系数分别为0.31、0.22、−0.11;SST与SSH、Chl a相关系数分别为0.32、−0.17;SSH与Chl a相关系数分别为−0.25。
本研究选取了70%数据作为训练集,30%数据作为测试集,通过交叉验证得到10次预测结果。相关系数(correlation coefficient)反映了预测值和实际值之间的线性关系强度,可以看出9−12月的相关系数取值范围在0.75~0.88之间,9−12月的RMSD范围在0.54~0.71之间,9−12月份R2的取值范围在0.54~0.75之间(图4)。
核密度模型计算结果显示9−12月秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源分布呈现一定的聚集性,渔场主要分布在13°~21°S,76°~87W°区域。各月份茎柔鱼资源分布又存在一定的差异,资源核密度值随着月份的增加呈现先增大后减小的趋势,10月份最高,核密度最大值大于40 t/m2。其中9月份茎柔鱼资源核密度高值区域主要集中在13°~16°S,81°~83°W。10月份逐渐向东南方向迁移,主要集中在16°~18°S,79°~82°W。11月茎柔鱼资源核密度呈西北−东南分布,集中在13°~15°S,83°~87°W与13°~19°S,77°~82°W海域。12月茎柔鱼资源核密度呈西北−东南分布,集中在16°~18°S,81°~82°W与18°~21°S,77°~79°W海域。12月与11月份相比,茎柔鱼核密度高值继续向东南方向迁移(图5)。
在随机森林中,特征的贡献率通常基于特征在决策树中的节点分裂次数和分裂所获得的信息增益来计算。随机森林不同月份各环境因子对CPUE贡献率如图6所示,各月份各环境因子贡献率存在差异,9−11月环境因子贡献率最高的均为SST,12月环境因子贡献率与前3个月存在显著差异,贡献率最高的为Chl a
图7可知,模型CPUE预测值随SSS的增大呈现先增大后减小的趋势,最适SSS范围为35.1~35.4;CPUE随SST上升不断减小,最适SST范围为16.3~18.5℃;CPUE随SSH上升先增大后减小,最适SSH范围为0.55~0.60 m;CPUE随Chl a上升先增大后减小,最适Chl a范围为0.18~0.46 mg/m3
利用随机森林模型对茎柔鱼各月资源丰度进行预测,模型CPUE预测值与名义CPUE变化趋势如图8所示。除2019年9−10月、11−12月外,CPUE预测值与名义CPUE变化趋势基本一致。CPUE预测值与名义CPUE相比,前者波动幅度更为平缓。CPUE预测值最大值在2021年9月,最小值在2018年12月;名义CPUE最大值在2021年9月,最小值在2021年12月。
随机森林模型在生物资源与环境因子的关系应用研究较多[2426]。本研究基于2018−2021年9−12月中国鱿钓船秘鲁外海作业数据,并选取SSS、SST、SSH、Chl a共4个环境因子进行建模。在100次7折交叉验证中得出的预测值与实际值之间存在正相关(相关系数大于0.75),且模型的准确性较高(RMSD < 0.71),能较好地解释变量之间的关系(R2 > 0.54),表明采用随机森林模型能较好地分析资源丰度与环境因子之间的关系。此外本文利用随机森林模型对茎柔鱼各年份的9−12月资源量进行预测,预测结果表明秘鲁外海茎柔鱼CPUE预测值大部分要低于名义CPUE,这与张弼强等利用GAM对西北印度洋鸢乌贼标准化结果一致[27]。两者随时间变化趋势大体一致,CPUE预测值变化幅度相比名义CPUE小,即通过随机森林模型处理后的CPUE预测值,在一定程度上能排除环境因子和时空因子对于CPUE的影响,能够更好地解释茎柔鱼资源丰度变动规律[28]。因此,利用随机森林模型来分析秘鲁外海茎柔鱼与环境因子之间的关系具有较高的可靠性,可以为秘鲁外海茎柔鱼的可持续利用提供依据。
秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源分布,因为受到茎柔鱼洄游特性和环境因素的影响,导致茎柔鱼资源分布在时空上出现变动[29]。本研究发现秘鲁外海茎柔鱼渔场重心在9−12月由西北向东南方向移动。本研究认为渔场重心变化主要受到捕捞船作业路线和SST的影响。9−12月为南半球的春季和夏初,随着月份的增加,SST上升,茎柔鱼为寻找适宜的SST海域,进行水平洄游,此外有经验的渔业作业者会选择合适的SST的海域进行生产作业,故茎柔鱼产量重心变化与不同月份渔船的转场作业及SST有关。本研究发现秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源分布重心在11月、12月时出现双重心分布,12月相对11月双重心之间的距离变小,这可能因为11月为秘鲁茎柔鱼产卵高峰期[10],茎柔鱼的卵和仔鱼受到洪堡海流的影响向北流去,使茎柔鱼资源重心出现向北偏移(图9)。
9−12月各环境因子贡献率结果显示,各环境因子对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度和分布的影响存在一定的差异性(图6)。SST是影响茎柔鱼分布的重要环境因子,通常与茎柔鱼渔场变动密切相关[5,8],其对茎柔鱼的生长发育、摄食、洄游会产生直接或者间接的影响。如陈新军等[29]认为SST对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源产量以及分布具有显著影响;刘杉等[30]利用栖息地模型探究秘鲁海域水温变化对茎柔鱼栖息地的影响,当海水温度升高时茎柔鱼渔场向南移动,且适宜栖息地面积逐渐减小,这与本文的研究结果基本一致。本研究结果显示12月份SST对茎柔鱼资源丰度影响低于Chl a,这与方星楠[8]利用最大熵模型分析茎柔鱼资源与环境因子关系时所得出的结果10−12月SST对资源丰度的影响较大有所差异,这可能与9−11月海表平均温度低于20℃,而12月份海表温平均值高于20℃有关。本研究发现秘鲁外海茎柔鱼最适SST为16.3~18.5℃,这与李莉等[6]认为的18~20℃,方星楠等[10]认为的17.2~20.6℃,刘必林等[31] 认为的16~20℃,方学燕等[13]认为的17~23℃,胡振明等[7]认为的18~23℃结果有些差异,这可能因为本文研究区域与研究时间与各研究者之间存在差异。9−11月为南半球春季,随着月份的增加,南半球温度整体逐渐上升,相应区域内对应的SST范围也发生改变;各类遥感数据库中数据存在偏差,本文对比各数据库相同时空的SST,发现SST存在差异,这对各研究结果也会产生影响;气候变化会改变秘鲁外海茎柔鱼的生存环境[32]和上升流的强弱也会影响秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地变化。
Chl a浓度的高低可以反应初级生产力状况[33],初级生产力越高的地方浮游生物越丰富,这能为茎柔鱼提供充足的食物,茎柔鱼资源量相对大,因而Chl a浓度高低与茎柔鱼产量相关[34]。本研究发现Chl a在9−12月份时贡献率都处在相对高的状态,11−12月份Chl a贡献率均在0.25左右。这可能是因为10月到翌年2月是茎柔鱼的高产卵期,此时需要大量饵料,而Chl a是浮游植物进行光合作用的主要色素,造成9−12月份Chl a贡献率较高。
盐度对茎柔鱼分布范围存在重要影响,高盐度锋面可能制约茎柔鱼的迁移和洄游过程[35]。SSS的适宜范围均以带状分布,且与适宜栖息地较好重叠[6]。本研究发现,在选取的4个环境因子中,SSS贡献率也相对较高,这可能是受到海流的影响,近岸低盐水和外海的高盐水相互补偿,使得该区域盐度适中,导致SSS在对茎柔鱼资源量的影响密切。
陈新军等[36]认为秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源分布主要受加利福尼亚和秘鲁海流的影响,海流的入侵会对SSH带来影响[37],本文研究发现9−12月SSH对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源分布贡献率在0.2上下波动,这可能与秘鲁外海茎柔鱼分布在秘鲁上升流区有关,海流上升时可以将营养物质和盐从海底运输到海面,促进了茎柔鱼的生长和繁殖,从而增加了SSH与资源量之间的关系。本研究选用了SSS、SST、SSH、Chl a 4个环境因子进行分析,但还有影响秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源变动的因子没考虑进去,如海流、涡旋[8]都可能对茎柔鱼分布产生影响。因此,在今后的研究中,可以在模型中加入其他因子进行分析,以更加全面地了解秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子的关系。
本研究基于随机森林模型,对秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子之间的关系进行了分析。研究发现:通过随机森林模型得出的预测值与实际值之间存在正相关,模型的准确性较高,能较好地解释变量之间的关系;基于随机森林模型的CPUE预测值与名义CPUE随时间变化趋势基本一致,表明随机森林模型适用于分析秘鲁外海茎柔鱼与环境因子之间的关系;9−12月秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源分布呈现一定的聚集性,渔场主要分布在13°~21°S,76°~87W°区域,资源核密度值随着月份的推移呈现先增大后减小的趋势,渔场重心由西北向东南方向转移;渔场最适SST范围为16.3~18.5℃,最适SSS范围为35.1~35.4,最适SSH为0.55~0.60 m,最适Chl a浓度范围为0.18~0.46 mg/m3,SST和Chl a对该海域茎柔鱼资源丰度影响较大。由于秘鲁海域气候条件复杂,茎柔鱼本身还存在昼夜垂直移动的现象,涡旋和垂直水温等环境因素对茎柔鱼资源也会带来影响,因此在今后的研究中可以加入更多的环境因素,以便能够更全面解析茎柔鱼资源丰度与环境因子的关系,为秘鲁外海茎柔鱼资源可持续开发提供科学依据。
  • 国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD0901505)
  • 浙江省重点研发计划项目(2018C02026)
  • 2022−2023浙江省远洋渔业资源常规检测(2023HZ024)
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2024年第46卷第7期
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doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024078
  • 接收时间:2023-12-05
  • 首发时间:2025-11-26
  • 出版时间:2024-07-31
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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-05
  • 修回日期:2024-04-01
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD0901505)
浙江省重点研发计划项目(2018C02026)
2022−2023浙江省远洋渔业资源常规检测(2023HZ024)
作者信息
    1.浙江海洋大学 海洋与渔业研究所,浙江 舟山 316021
    2.浙江省水产研究所/农村农业部重点渔场渔业资源科学观测实验站/浙江省海洋渔业资源可持续利用技术研究重点实验室,浙江 舟山 316021

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*朱文斌(1982—),男,浙江省义乌市人,正高级工程师,主要从事渔业资源与管理研究。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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