Article(id=1200377936084857241, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1200377931454337399, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.12284/hyxb2024014, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1689091200000, receivedDateStr=2023-07-12, revisedDate=1697731200000, revisedDateStr=2023-10-20, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1764122001906, onlineDateStr=2025-11-26, pubDate=1711814400000, pubDateStr=2024-03-31, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1764122001906, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-11-26, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1764122001906, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1764122001906, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1200377931454337399, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, year='2024', volume='46', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='110', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=0, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1764122000799, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1764122116527, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1200378416919859276, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1200377931454337399, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1200378416919859277, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, issueId=1200377931454337399, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1, endPage=11, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1200377936365875614, articleId=1200377936084857241, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=EN, title=Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific Ocean, columnId=null, journalTitle=Haiyang Xuebao, columnName=null, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Reliable assessment of the impact and risk of typhoons on coastal areas is very important for scientific resistance to typhoon disasters. China has a detailed typhoon observation record with a history of only 60 years, which makes it limited in estimating extreme wind speed with a long recurrence period and corresponding extreme wave height and tide level. The insufficient records also limits the application of data-driven models in typhoon disaster prediction. Therefore, it is necessary to construct synthetic typhoons based on the actual typhoon travel law to overcome the problem of insufficient historical observations. In this paper, 18 671 synthetic typhoons were constructed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by using the Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation, and the parameters such as the start and end position, frequency of occurrence, travel speed and direction of the synthetic typhoons were statistically compared and analyzed with historical typhoons. The results show that the synthetic typhoon constructed based on the proposed method is generally consistent with the traveling characteristics of historical typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Through the construction of these synthetic typhoons, a synthetic typhoon database with sufficient data and reliable performance can be provided for the study of extreme wave and storm surge along the coast of China.

, correspAuthors=Yongping Chen, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=Haiyang Xuebao, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Xiaowu Xu, Yongping Chen, Ya Tan, Chang Liu, Shanglu Li, Zhumei Che), CN=ArticleExt(id=1200377938819543519, articleId=1200377936084857241, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, language=CN, title=基于核密度估计的经验路径模型在西北太平洋虚拟台风构建中的应用, columnId=1149698756456657529, journalTitle=海洋学报, columnName=论文, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

合理评估台风对沿海区域的影响程度与风险对于科学抵御台风灾害而言十分重要,而我国具有详细的台风观测记录至今也仅有60多年的历史,这使得在推算具有一定重现期的极值风速及相应的极值波高和潮位等特征参数时存在局限性,同时台风观测样本量的不足也限制了如深度学习等数据驱动型模型在台风灾害预报中的应用。因此,有必要基于实际台风行进规律构建虚拟台风以克服历史数据量不足的问题。故本文采用基于核密度估计的经验路径模型,在西北太平洋海域构建了18 671场虚拟台风,将虚拟台风的起始与终止位置、发生频数、行进速度和行进方向等参数与实际发生的台风进行统计意义上的对比分析。结果表明,基于本文方法构建的虚拟台风总体上符合西北太平洋历史台风的行进规律。通过这些虚拟台风的构建,可为中国沿海极值波浪和风暴增水研究提供数据量足够且性能可靠的虚拟台风样本数据库。

, correspAuthors=陈永平, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
*陈永平,男,教授,主要从事海洋动力学研究。E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=版权所有©《海洋学报》编辑部 2024, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=bxGs+Jdd3jVVeJy4i8u6QQ==, magXml=TItBVlu6OVEUjMcVGp1H9Q==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=3oZSfi6DBVGeDtamTRNT6Q==, pdfFileSize=4943900, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=nP5rbDgTcspMx8T/TCXc6g==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=hh+egqskruTqeE/1H5x+hw==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

徐晓武(1998—),男,江西省上饶市人,研究方向为海洋动力学。E-mail:

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徐晓武(1998—),男,江西省上饶市人,研究方向为海洋动力学。E-mail:

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徐晓武(1998—),男,江西省上饶市人,研究方向为海洋动力学。E-mail:

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figureFileBig=6qmLUlPPu8lGVUw1Lm7QbQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1200377949640847986, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200377936084857241, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Standard for classification of tropical cyclones

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热带气旋类型 底层中心附近最大平均风速(10 min平均风速)/(m·s−1
超强台风 ≥ 51
强台风 41.5~50.9
台风 32.7~41.4
强热带风暴 24.5~32.6
热带风暴 17.2~24.4
热带低压 10.8~17.1
), ArticleFig(id=1200377949712151156, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200377936084857241, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

热带气旋分类标准

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热带气旋类型 底层中心附近最大平均风速(10 min平均风速)/(m·s−1
超强台风 ≥ 51
强台风 41.5~50.9
台风 32.7~41.4
强热带风暴 24.5~32.6
热带风暴 17.2~24.4
热带低压 10.8~17.1
), ArticleFig(id=1200377949821203062, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200377936084857241, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

KS test at 5% significance level for each distribution

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分布类型 $ {D}_{n} $ 样本量 $ {D}_{\mathrm{c}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{t},\; 0.05} $
泊松分布
(台风年发生频数)
0.066 62 0.173
伽马分布
(台风初始移速)
0.026 1520 0.035
双峰分布
(台风初始移向)
0.015 1520 0.035
), ArticleFig(id=1200377949938643576, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149651085930835976, articleId=1200377936084857241, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

各分布的5%显著水平下的KS检验

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分布类型 $ {D}_{n} $ 样本量 $ {D}_{\mathrm{c}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{t},\; 0.05} $
泊松分布
(台风年发生频数)
0.066 62 0.173
伽马分布
(台风初始移速)
0.026 1520 0.035
双峰分布
(台风初始移向)
0.015 1520 0.035
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基于核密度估计的经验路径模型在西北太平洋虚拟台风构建中的应用
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徐晓武 1, 2, 3 , 陈永平 1, 2, * , 谭亚 1, 2 , 刘畅 1, 2 , 李尚鲁 3 , 车助镁 3
海洋学报 | 论文 2024,46(3): 1-11
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海洋学报 | 论文 2024, 46(3): 1-11
基于核密度估计的经验路径模型在西北太平洋虚拟台风构建中的应用
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徐晓武1, 2, 3 , 陈永平1, 2, * , 谭亚1, 2, 刘畅1, 2, 李尚鲁3, 车助镁3
作者信息
  • 1.河海大学 水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098
  • 2.河海大学 港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏 南京 210098
  • 3.浙江省海洋监测预报中心,浙江 杭州 310007
  • 徐晓武(1998—),男,江西省上饶市人,研究方向为海洋动力学。E-mail:

通讯作者:

*陈永平,男,教授,主要从事海洋动力学研究。E-mail:
Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific Ocean
Xiaowu Xu1, 2, 3 , Yongping Chen1, 2, * , Ya Tan1, 2, Chang Liu1, 2, Shanglu Li3, Zhumei Che3
Affiliations
  • 1. The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • 2. College of Harbor, Costal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • 3. Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310007, China
出版时间: 2024-03-31 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024014
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合理评估台风对沿海区域的影响程度与风险对于科学抵御台风灾害而言十分重要,而我国具有详细的台风观测记录至今也仅有60多年的历史,这使得在推算具有一定重现期的极值风速及相应的极值波高和潮位等特征参数时存在局限性,同时台风观测样本量的不足也限制了如深度学习等数据驱动型模型在台风灾害预报中的应用。因此,有必要基于实际台风行进规律构建虚拟台风以克服历史数据量不足的问题。故本文采用基于核密度估计的经验路径模型,在西北太平洋海域构建了18 671场虚拟台风,将虚拟台风的起始与终止位置、发生频数、行进速度和行进方向等参数与实际发生的台风进行统计意义上的对比分析。结果表明,基于本文方法构建的虚拟台风总体上符合西北太平洋历史台风的行进规律。通过这些虚拟台风的构建,可为中国沿海极值波浪和风暴增水研究提供数据量足够且性能可靠的虚拟台风样本数据库。

核密度估计  /  经验路径模型  /  虚拟台风  /  西北太平洋

Reliable assessment of the impact and risk of typhoons on coastal areas is very important for scientific resistance to typhoon disasters. China has a detailed typhoon observation record with a history of only 60 years, which makes it limited in estimating extreme wind speed with a long recurrence period and corresponding extreme wave height and tide level. The insufficient records also limits the application of data-driven models in typhoon disaster prediction. Therefore, it is necessary to construct synthetic typhoons based on the actual typhoon travel law to overcome the problem of insufficient historical observations. In this paper, 18 671 synthetic typhoons were constructed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by using the Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation, and the parameters such as the start and end position, frequency of occurrence, travel speed and direction of the synthetic typhoons were statistically compared and analyzed with historical typhoons. The results show that the synthetic typhoon constructed based on the proposed method is generally consistent with the traveling characteristics of historical typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Through the construction of these synthetic typhoons, a synthetic typhoon database with sufficient data and reliable performance can be provided for the study of extreme wave and storm surge along the coast of China.

kernel density estimation  /  Empirical Path Model  /  synthetic typhoon  /  Northwest Pacific Ocean
徐晓武, 陈永平, 谭亚, 刘畅, 李尚鲁, 车助镁. 基于核密度估计的经验路径模型在西北太平洋虚拟台风构建中的应用. 海洋学报, 2024 , 46 (3) : 1 -11 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2024014
Xiaowu Xu, Yongping Chen, Ya Tan, Chang Liu, Shanglu Li, Zhumei Che. Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2024 , 46 (3) : 1 -11 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2024014
西北太平洋是全球台风主要发源地之一,其中大部分的台风会影响我国沿海地区。台风形成后伴有强风、暴雨,常在沿海地区引起巨浪以及风暴潮,具有巨大的破坏性,据统计,2013−2022年我国平均每年因台风造成的直接经济损失数超60亿元[1],合理评估台风对沿海区域的影响程度与风险对于科学抵御台风灾害而言十分重要。在针对台风所引起的灾害进行风险分析时,需要较长时间跨度的台风数据来推算具有一定重现期的极值风速及相应的极值波高和潮位等特征参数[24]。然而,我国详细开展台风观测是从1959年开始的,至今只有60多年的历史[5],在推算较长重现期的极值风速、波浪和风暴增水时具有一定的局限性。同时,目前对于风暴潮及台风浪预报主要采用台风驱动水动力模型对其进行模拟,但该方法对数学方程组的离散求解过程也极为费时,尤其是当水动力模型网格较密时,可能难以满足时效性要求[6]。一种有效的替代方法是采用如机器学习模型等数据驱动型模型[710],但数据驱动型模型对于训练样本量有要求,只有充足的数据才能训练出一个稳定可靠的预报模型,且往往数据量越多模型性能越优秀。同时,有相关研究表明,要构建一个稳定的风暴潮智能预报模型至少需要数千场的台风过程[10],而目前所观测到的台风数据难以满足这一要求。
为有效克服台风历史观测数据量不足的问题,可以基于历史台风的行进规律来构建虚拟台风以扩充台风样本数据库。目前,国内外学者对如何构建虚拟台风进行了大量的研究,并总结了两类主要的构建方法:蒙特卡洛法和经验路径法。蒙特卡洛法是最早的一类虚拟台风构建方法,由Russell [1112]提出,该方法基于历史实测台风数据(如风速、移向、中心气压和最大风速半径等),拟合得到台风各个关键参数的概率模型,然后采用蒙特卡洛方法从关键参数概率模型中抽取1组台风关键参数,构建虚拟台风事件。该方法在美国[13]和澳大利亚[14]附近海域的设计风速图编制时得到了应用,但是该方法假定台风的路径不变,其生成的虚拟台风往往不符合实际台风的行进特征,在推算相应的台风浪和风暴潮位时缺乏一定的合理性。
Vickery和Twisdale[15]提出的经验路径法是目前应用最为广泛的台风路径构建方法,其建立了台风的移动速度、移动方向以及相对强度间的线性关系式,首先采用蒙特卡洛法从台风关键参数概率模型中抽取1组台风关键参数作为虚拟台风初始值,然后根据台风特征参数间的线性关系式在每一时间步上进行台风参数更新。同时,许多学者针对经验路径法进行了改进,并应用于不同区域,如James和Mason[16]改进了经验路径模型以适用于实测数据密度较低的情形,在澳大利亚北部昆士兰海岸构建了虚拟台风集。最近Nederhoff等[17]提出了一种基于核密度估计的经验路径模型,该方法与Vickery和Twisdale[15]提出的经验路径法不同之处在于,其不通过构建的台风特征参数间的线性关系式来模拟台风行进参数,而是采用核密度估计法针对研究区域中历史台风参数变化量进行概率分布拟合,后基于相应的概率分布而确定台风每一时间步的行进参数,该模型已被成功地应用于孟加拉湾[1819]和墨西哥湾[17, 20]区域的虚拟台风构建,但还尚未有在世界其他区域的应用。
本文采用Nederhoff等[17]提出的基于核密度估计法的经验路径模型在西北太平洋区域构建虚拟台风,并对构建的虚拟台风与实测台风进行对比分析,以验证构建的虚拟台风的合理性。
基于核密度估计的经验路径模型是由Nederhoff等[17]提出的一种生成虚拟台风的方法,该方法以研究区域内的实际台风数据信息作为基础进行虚拟台风的构建。模型主要分为两大部分即研究区域实际台风数据统计分析及虚拟台风生成。
分别统计研究区域内历史实际台风的年发生频数及台风起始参数(初始移动速度、初始移向及中心最大风速)并进行概率分布拟合,根据前人的研究[15, 2122]可知,台风年发生频数可以用泊松分布、二项分布或负二项分布来描述;台风的移动速度可以采用正态分布、对数正态分布或伽马分布来描述;台风的中心移动方向可以用正态分布、双峰分布或是冯·米赛斯(Von Mises)分布进行拟合;台风的中心最大风速则可用对数正态分布、伽马分布或威布尔分布进行拟合。
进一步对研究区域进行网格划分并统计在各网格中历史台风的移速变化量、移向变化量及最大风速变化量。根据Vickery等[23]的研究可知,台风特征参数变化量依赖于前一时刻的参数值,故采用核密度估计法对参数变化量进行条件概率分布拟合。该方法通过离散样本点加和来构建一个连续的概率密度函数,从而得到一个平滑的样本分布,核密度估计公式为
$ \widehat{f}\left(x,h\right)=\frac{1}{N}\sum _{i\;=\;1}^{N}{K}_{h}\left(x-{x}_{i}\right)\text{,} $
式中$ ,\widehat{f}\left(x,h\right) $表示总体的概率密度函数;h为带宽;N表示样本总数;K表示核函数,核函数可以有多种具体形式,如高斯函数、正态分布函数或二次函数等。
考虑到概率密度拟合对数据量的敏感性较大,故设定进行核密度估计时网格处数据量至少需250个。当网格中所含数据量不足时,扩大该网格尺寸直至数据量满足最低要求或网格尺寸达到设定最大值,若网格尺寸扩大到设定最大值时,数据量仍不满足最低数据量要求,则该网格选取最近网格的参数作为替代。进一步统计了历史台风在各网格处的起始与终止概率,以作为后续生成虚拟台风的基准。
基于对研究区域历史台风数据统计分析结果,进一步地生成虚拟台风,计算流程如图1所示。
首先定义模拟年数,后基于已拟合的历史台风年发生频数的泊松分布确定模拟各年份中台风数量。针对一场虚拟台风,首先确定其起始特征参数(台风起始点位置及时间、起始移速、起始移向以及起始中心最大风速值),台风的起始时间(距离当年第一天的天数)是从历史台风数据中随机抽样确定的,台风起始点位置是基于各网格点台风的起始概率来进行随机确定的,同时还需考虑确定后的台风起始位置在起始时间时对应的海温是否高于26℃,若不满足则需重新确定台风起始位置直至满足对应海温高于26℃。进一步地,基于拟合的台风起始特征参数的概率分布函数随机确定台风的起始移速、移向及中心最大风速值。
在确定了虚拟台风的起始参数后,以3 h为时间间隔,通过对每个时间步的移向、移速及中心最大风速进行采样以模拟台风的轨迹与强度。首先确定该时间步台风所处的网格,并基于该时刻台风的移速、移向及中心最大风速分别通过所处网格对应的特征参数的概率分布进行条件采样确定它们的变化量,并以此确定下一时刻的台风位置及其特征参数。以此循环往复直至台风结束,特别地,当台风登陆以后,由于海洋能量来源的损失和地面摩擦的增加,台风强度会减弱。台风衰减的速率与台风本身、登陆的位置以及登陆时的台风中心最大风速有关,采用合适的衰减模型描述台风的衰减规律,对于预测台风登陆后的风速有重要的影响,该模型采用了Kaplan和DeMaria[24]提出的一个简单的经验模型,即
$ V\left(t\right)={V}_{0}{{\mathrm{e}}}^{-\alpha t}\text{,} $
式中,$ V\left(t\right) $表示登陆t h后台风的中心最大风速;$ {V}_{0} $表示登陆时台风的中心最大风速;$ \alpha $为经验参数,一般取为0.015 5。
在每一时间步模拟结束以后,需检查台风是否触发终止条件,台风终止条件有3种:(1)台风中心最大风速低于5.2 m/s;(2)台风中心所处位置的海温低于10℃;(3)基于历史台风在各网格的终止概率进行随机采样确定是否终止。当台风满足上述任一条件时,台风终止,即该虚拟台风模拟完成。
本文采用的历史台风数据来源于中国气象局上海台风研究所(Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,CMA-STI)西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集(1959−2020年)[5]。该数据集由中国气象局负责维护并进行更新。数据集包括台风每6 h间隔的位置与强度信息,具体包括台风名称、编号、台风中心位置(经纬度)、中心压强、近台风中心的最大风速以及台风强度。据统计,1959−2020年西北太平洋发生的热带气旋共1 520场(图2),其中热带低压19场、热带风暴236场、强热带风暴336场、台风337场、强台风271场以及超强台风321场(分类标准如表1所示)。从图2可以看出,超强台风集中在10°~25°N,主要影响了我国东南沿海地区,这也就导致了我国东南沿海区域成为世界上受台风灾害影响最严重的区域之一。同时可以看出,对于我国广东省、福建省及海南省,主要受到了西向型台风的影响,对于我国浙江省、江苏省等东部沿海省份既受西向型台风的影响也受转向型台风(台风路径由西向转为东向)的影响,对于我国山东省、河北省及辽宁省,其受台风影响较小,影响该区域的台风均为转向型台风,故本文主要针对我国东南沿海区域对构建的虚拟台风的合理性进行验证。
西北太平洋历史台风数据的统计分析结果表明,台风年发生频数符合泊松分布(图3a),均值为25.621;台风初始移速符合伽马分布(图3b),形状参数为3.2,尺度参数为4.98;台风初始移向符合双峰分布(图3c),为两正态分布的叠加,均值分别为−80.13和−15.37,方差为16和52.62,权重系数为0.63和0.37。
进一步地,对上述分布进行Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS)拟合优度检验,其检验公式如式(3)和式(4)所示。表2统计了各分布的KS统计值以及5%显著水平下的临界值,由表可知,各分布的KS统计值均小于5%显著水平下的临界值,均通过了KS拟合优度检验。台风的年发生频数、台风初始移速及台风初始移向分别从上述的泊松分布、伽马分布以及双峰分布中随机抽取确定。而针对台风初始最大风速,则从其经验分布中抽取确定。
$ {D}_{n}={\mathrm{max}}\left|{F}_{\mathrm{exp}}\left(x\right)-{F}_{\mathrm{obs}}\left(x\right)\right|\text{,} $
$ {D}_{\mathrm{c}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{t}, \;0.05}=\frac{1.36}{\sqrt{n}}\text{,} $
式中,$ {F}_{\mathrm{e}\mathrm{x}\mathrm{p}}\left(x\right) $$ {F}_{\mathrm{o}\mathrm{b}\mathrm{s}}\left(x\right) $分别代表经验分布函数及拟合的累计分布函数;$ {D}_{n} $代表经验分布函数与拟合的分布函数间的最大误差;$ {D}_{\mathrm{c}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{t},\;0.05} $代表在95%优度下,KS的临界值;n为样本数据量。当$ {D}_{n} $ <$ {D}_{\mathrm{c}\mathrm{r}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{t}, \;0.05} $时则代表拟合的累计分布函数通过5%显著水平下的KS检验。
在确定了台风初始条件后,采用基于核密度估计的经验路径模型模拟了西北太平洋1 000年共18 671场的虚拟台风。图4绘制了历史台风(1 520场)路径以及从构建的虚拟台风事件中随机抽取的1 520场虚拟台风路径,由图可知,历史台风和虚拟台风在纬度小于25°N时,台风路径主要以西向型台风为主,当纬度高于25°N时,台风路径主要为转向型台风(先西向后东向)。进一步可以看出,历史台风以及虚拟台风在20°~30°N,125°~140°E的区域内,台风强度等级均较其他区域高,经过该区域的台风基本能达到强台风及以上。
图5为历史台风与随机选取的1 520场虚拟台风的起始点与终止点对比,图5a为台风起始点分布对比,可以看出,虚拟台风起始点与历史台风起始点分布基本相同,均集中于0°~30°N以及110°~140°E的区域内。图5b为台风终止点分布对比,可以看出对于在海域中终止的历史台风与虚拟台风两者的终止点分布基本相同,而对于在陆域终止的台风而言,虚拟台风终止点分布较历史台风向陆域延伸的更远,这可能是由于模型对台风登陆后的风速衰减方程的误差或模型的台风终止条件较实际台风终止条件更放松。
在研究区域的岸线上每隔500 km设置1个验证点,同时在海域选取了6个代表站点,站点布置如图6所示。本节采用模拟圆法确定各验证点的影响台风。该方法以研究点为圆心,划定一定的半径,当一个台风路径与模拟圆相交或是位于模拟圆内时,即认定该台风对研究区域存在影响[15, 25]。Vickery等[26]通过参数化实验,建议模拟圆半径采用250 km,当台风与研究区域距离小于250 km即认定该台风对研究区域具有影响。基于该方法分别从生成的虚拟台风及历史台风中筛选出影响各站点的台风事件,图7a为影响各站点的历史台风及虚拟台风年发生频数的对比,可以看出,两者趋势基本一致。针对陆域站点M1~M43,历史台风和虚拟台风年发生频数由北至南逐渐增加,在站点M37两者均达到峰值,其中历史台风年发生频数为3.71场,虚拟台风年发生频数为3.61场;针对海域站点O1~O6的年发生频数对比可知,两者基本吻合,其中O4为受台风影响最频繁的站点,其中历史台风年发生频数达到4.02场,虚拟台风年发生频数为3.96场。图7b为影响各站点的历史台风及虚拟台风的中心最大风速的平均值及标准差对比,如图可知,影响各站点的虚拟台风中心最大风速平均值及标准差与历史台风拟合良好。从图7b可以看出,影响海域站点的台风中心最大风速平均值远高于影响陆域站点的台风中心最大风速值,这主要是由于影响陆域站点的台风大部分已登陆,其风速值存在一定的削减。
为进一步对比各站点的影响台风的强度等级分布情况,以我国东南沿海的M25、M30与M35站点为例,图8统计了影响各站点的虚拟台风与历史台风中不同强度等级的占比,对于影响M25、M30与M35站点的历史台风的强度等级主要集中在台风及其以下等级,对于虚拟台风同样也具有相同的分布规律,尽管各强度等级的虚拟台风与历史台风占比并不完全相同,但占比相差均在10%以内。
台风的移向及移速决定了台风行进的路线与快慢,是对如台风浪和风暴潮等由台风引起的灾害进行数值模拟的关键参数。因此,有必要确定构建的虚拟台风的移向与移速是否符合历史台风的行进规律,然后再进行分析。图9绘制了影响站点的虚拟台风及历史台风移速的累计密度分布,由图可知,影响站点的虚拟台风移速累计分布曲线与历史台风较为接近,这主要是由于本文采用的经验路径模型对台风移速变化只依赖于历史数据,不涉及额外的衰减模型,从图9可以看出,不论是陆域站点还是海域站点,历史台风的移速均在0~60 km/h之间,且它们的累积分布曲线的形状相似,这也可能是本文采用的经验路径法得以构建出与历史台风移向分布相同的原因之一。
图10绘制了影响站点的虚拟台风及历史台风移向的概率分布曲线,移向为与正北方向的夹角,顺时针为正(代表台风向东行进),逆时针为负(代表台风向西行进)。由于角度具有周期性,其累计分布曲线较为扭曲,不易用于相似性判断,故此处我们绘制其概率密度曲线进行相关验证。由图10可知,从整体的分布变化上可以看出,随着站点的南移,影响各陆域站点的虚拟台风主要移向由东向转为西向,而对于海域站点,影响各站点的虚拟台风主要移向东向和西向均有,不论是陆域站点还是海域站点,其主要移向变化趋势与历史台风相同,构建的虚拟台风较好地再现了历史台风移向的变化。
本文采用了基于核密度估计的经验路径法模型构建了西北太平洋区域1 000年的虚拟台风共18 671场,并对构建的虚拟台风分别进行了验证,结论如下:
(1)通过对比西北太平洋区域历史台风与虚拟台风的路径图,发现构建的虚拟台风与历史台风具有相同的区域行进特征,纬度小于25°N时,台风路径主要以西向型台风为主,当纬度高于25°N时,台风路径主要为转向型台风(先西向后东向)。
(2)在中国大陆沿海设置了43个陆域站点,在西北太平洋设置了6个海洋站点,分别筛选了影响各站点的历史和虚拟台风数据进行对比分析,发现各站点虚拟台风与历史台风的年发生频数、台风中心最大风速均值和标准差、台风移速累计概率分布曲线以及移向概率密度曲线均较为吻合。
综上所述,本文采用基于核密度估计的经验路径法构建的西北太平洋区域1 000年的虚拟台风特征变化符合该区域历史台风的变化,可以作为后续如长重现期的极值风速、风暴潮潮位及波浪的数据支撑,也可用作进行水文数据驱动型模型的数据样本扩充。同时需要指出的是,本文在构建1 000年时间尺度下的虚拟台风过程中,并未考虑到台风各特征参数的年际变化趋势,在后续的研究过程中,还需对台风各特征参数进行趋势性分析,并将其应用于虚拟台风构建。
  • 国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008100)
  • 浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF22D060010)
  • 广州市南沙区水务局科技项目(2022-263)
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doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024014
  • 接收时间:2023-07-12
  • 首发时间:2025-11-26
  • 出版时间:2024-03-31
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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-12
  • 修回日期:2023-10-20
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3008100)
浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF22D060010)
广州市南沙区水务局科技项目(2022-263)
作者信息
    1.河海大学 水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098
    2.河海大学 港口海岸与近海工程学院,江苏 南京 210098
    3.浙江省海洋监测预报中心,浙江 杭州 310007

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*陈永平,男,教授,主要从事海洋动力学研究。E-mail:
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
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