中南林业科技大学学报

气候变化下海南岛8种古树生境适宜性评价

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陈芷琪 ¹ , 钟云芳 ¹ , 杨泽秀 ² , 何荣晓 ¹

中南林业科技大学学报 | 林学 2026,46(5): 89-100

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中南林业科技大学学报 |林学 2026 , 46 (5) : 89 -100

气候变化下海南岛8种古树生境适宜性评价

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陈芷琪¹, 钟云芳¹, 杨泽秀², 何荣晓¹

作者信息

^1.海南大学　热带农林学院，海南　海口　570228

^2.海南省珠峰林业生态研究所，海南　海口　570220

通讯作者:

何荣晓（rx.he@hainanu.edu.cn），讲师，博士。

作者简介:

陈芷琪（zhiqishiyuchen@163.com），硕士研究生。

Habitat suitability evaluation for eight ancient tree species on Hainan island under climate change

Zhiqi CHEN¹, Yunfang ZHONG¹, Zexiu YANG², Rongxiao HE¹

Affiliations

^1.School of Tropical Agriculture and Forestry, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, Hainan, China

^2.Zhufeng Forestry Ecology Research Institute of Hainan, Haikou 570220, Hainan, China

出版时间: 2026-05-25 doi: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.05.010

文章导航

摘要

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【目的】

旨在实现海南岛8种古树在气候变化下的潜在适宜生境分布和环境因子的响应评估，为海南岛古树的管理与保护提供参考。

【方法】

以海南岛树龄≥300 a的8种古树为研究对象，筛选相关环境变量，通过MaxEnt模型预测8种古树在当前和未来气候条件下的潜在适宜生境变化和关键影响因素。

【结果】

1）8种古树的训练AUC平均值均>0.9，表示预测准确性极高。2）人口密度分布是多种古树适宜分布的重要影响因子，且该因子的贡献率与置换重要值较高。不同古树还受到各自特定的气候、土壤等因子的共同作用。3）当前气候条件下，黄葛树Ficus virens在海南岛的适宜生境范围最广，约为20 248.36 km²，其次为秋枫Bischofia javanica（16 367.39 km²），杧果Mangifera indica和酸豆Tamarindus indica的适生区域则在8种古树中相对狭窄。4）在未来气候情景下，古树的潜在适宜生境变化区域基本集中于原有适生区域的边缘。古树损失、增益和周转较高的区域主要集中在海南岛的东北部和西南部等沿海市县。

【结论】

使用优化的MaxEnt模型能够较好地模拟出海南岛8种古树对气候变化的响应。人类活动与自然环境对古树的长期生存具有综合影响。研究结果可为海南岛古树资源的可持续保护提供科学参考。

关键词

MaxEnt模型 / 古树 / 潜在适宜生境 / 环境因子 / 气候变化 / 海南岛

Abstract

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【Objective】

This study aims to evaluate the distribution of the potential suitable habitats of eight ancient tree species on Hainan island under climate change and their responses to environmental factors, and to provide a reference for the management and protection of ancient trees on Hainan island.

【Method】

Taking eight ancient tree species with a tree age of≥300 years on Hainan Island as the research objects, relevant environmental variables were screened out. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the changes in the potential suitable habitats and the key influencing factors of these eight ancient tree species under current and future climate conditions.

【Result】

1) The average training AUC values of the eight ancient tree species are all above 0.9, indicating extremely high prediction accuracy. 2) Population density is an important influencing factor for the suitable distribution of many ancient tree species, and the contribution rate and permutation importance value of this factor are relatively high. Different ancient tree species are also jointly affected by their respective specific climate, soil and other factors; 3) Under the current climate conditions, Ficus virens and Bischofia javanica have the widest suitable habitat ranges on Hainan island, approximately 20 248.36 km² and 16 367.39 km² respectively. The suitable habitat areas of Mangifera indica and Tamarindus indica are relatively narrow among the eight ancient tree species; 4) Under the future climate scenarios, the areas of potential suitable habitat change for ancient trees are basically centred on the edges of the original suitable habitat areas. Areas of high loss, gain and turnover of ancient trees are mainly concentrated in coastal cities and counties in the northeast and southwest of Hainan island.

【Conclusion】

The response of eight species of ancient trees on Hainan island to climate change can be better simulated using the optimized MaxEnt model. Human activities and the natural environment have a combined effect on the long-term survival of ancient trees. The results can provide scientific reference for the sustainable conservation of Hainan's ancient tree resources.

Key words

MaxEnt model / ancient trees / potentially suitable habitat / environmental factors / climate change / Hainan island

引用本文

陈芷琪, 钟云芳, 杨泽秀, 何荣晓. 气候变化下海南岛8种古树生境适宜性评价. 中南林业科技大学学报, 2026 , 46 (5) : 89 -100 . DOI: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.05.010

Zhiqi CHEN, Yunfang ZHONG, Zexiu YANG, Rongxiao HE. Habitat suitability evaluation for eight ancient tree species on Hainan island under climate change[J]. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology, 2026 , 46 (5) : 89 -100 . DOI: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.05.010

基金

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国家自然科学基金项目(32371959)

参考文献

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参考文献引证文献

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2026年第46卷第5期

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文章信息

doi: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.05.010

接收时间：2025-05-08
首发时间：2026-10-30
出版时间：2026-05-25

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出版历史

收稿日期：2025-05-08
修回日期：2025-07-18

基金

国家自然科学基金项目(32371959)

作者信息

^1.海南大学　热带农林学院，海南　海口　570228

^2.海南省珠峰林业生态研究所，海南　海口　570220

通讯作者:

何荣晓（rx.he@hainanu.edu.cn），讲师，博士。

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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