中南林业科技大学学报

中国珍稀濒危龙脑香科树种分布预测及保护优先区

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黎宏琴 ¹^,³ , 殷晓洁 ¹^,²^,³ , 王妍 ² , 唐继敏 ²

中南林业科技大学学报 | 林学 2026,46(6): 80-90

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中南林业科技大学学报 |林学 2026 , 46 (6) : 80 -90

中国珍稀濒危龙脑香科树种分布预测及保护优先区

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黎宏琴¹^,³, 殷晓洁¹^,²^,³, 王妍², 唐继敏²

作者信息

^1.西南林业大学　林学院，云南　昆明　650224

^2.云南省山地农村生态环境演变与污染治理重点实验室，云南　昆明　650224

^3.云南省跨境森林保护空间智能工程国际联合实验室，云南　昆明　650224

通讯作者:

殷晓洁（xjyinanne@163.com），副教授，硕士研究生导师。

作者简介:

黎宏琴（pear_liii@126.com）硕士研究生。

Prediction of the distribution of rare and endangered Dipterocarpaceae tree species in China and research on priority conservation areas

Hongqin LI¹^,³, Xiaojie YIN¹^,²^,³, Yan WANG², Jimin TANG²

Affiliations

^1.College of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, Yunnan, China

^2.Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Mountainous Rural Ecological Environment Evolution and Pollution Control, Kunming 650224, Yunnan, China

^3.Yunnan Province Cross-border Forest Protection Space Intelligent Engineering International Joint Laboratory, Kunming 650224, Yunnan, China

出版时间: 2026-06-25 doi: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.06.008

文章导航

摘要

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【目的】

模拟和预测中国珍稀濒危龙脑香科树种的适生区分布，进行保护优先区和保护空缺分析，为其保护和管理提供依据。

【方法】

基于气候、地形、土壤及人类影响因子，利用R语言优化的MaxEnt模型模拟并预测中国8种珍稀濒危龙脑香科乔木的适生区及变化趋势；结合Marxan模型，识别珍稀濒危龙脑香科乔木树种的保护优先区，对其进行保护空缺分析。

【结果】

1）使用优化的MaxEnt模型模拟各树种适生区精度高，AUC值均大于0.971；2）中国珍稀濒危龙脑香科植物主要分布于云南、海南和广西等南方热带地区，分布范围较集中；3）年均温、等温性及人类活动是影响龙脑香科树种适生区分布的主导影响因子；其中，年均温对龙脑香科各树种的影响最大，贡献率均值达到52.9%；4）在SSPs126和SSPs585情景下，东京龙脑香、狭叶坡垒、望天树和青梅适生区面积减少0.29%～60.00%，适生区质心向西南迁移；云南娑罗双、广西青梅则扩张8.60%～52.22%，分别向西北和东北迁移；坡垒、无翼坡垒在SSPs126情景下适生区分别减少21.70%、1.61%，在SSPs585情景下扩张26.14%、13.01%，且质心均向东北迁移；5）龙脑香科珍稀濒危树种的保护优先区主要分布于云南省南部和海南省中部，目前受保护面积仅为0.515 6×10⁴ km²。

【结论】

优化后的MaxEnt模型能够很好地预测龙脑香科各树种适生区，优先适生区受保护面积较少，应加大其保护力度，扩大各树种的分布范围。

关键词

珍稀濒危 / 龙脑香科 / MaxEnt / Marxan / 气候变化

Abstract

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【Objective】

In order to simulate and predict the suitable habitat distribution of rare and endangered Dipterocarpaceae tree species in China, conduct conservation priority area and conservation GAP analysis, and to provide a basis for their protection and management.

【Method】

Based on climate, terrain, soil, and human impact factors, MaxEnt model optimized was used with R language to simulate and predict the suitable habitats and changing trends of eight rare and endangered Dipterocarpaceae trees in China. The Marxan model was combined to identify priority areas for the protection of rare and endangered Dipterocarpaceae tree species and conducted a protection GAP analysis.

【Result】

The results showed that: 1) The optimized MaxEnt model simulated the suitability zone of various tree species with high accuracy, with AUC values greater than 0.971; 2) Rare and endangered Dipterocarpaceae plants in China are mainly distributed in southern tropical regions such as Yunnan, Hainan, and Guangxi, with a relatively concentrated distribution range; 3) Annual mean temperature, isothermality, and human impact factors are the dominant factors affecting the distribution of the suitable habitat of Dipterocarpaceae tree species. Among these, annual mean temperature has the greatest impact on Dipterocarpaceae tree species, with an average contribution rate of 52.9%; 4) Under the SSPs126 and SSPs585 scenarios, the suitable areas for Dipterocarpus retusus, Hopea chinensis, Parashorea chinensis, Vatica mangachapoi decrease by 0.29% to 60.00%, and the center of gravity of the suitable areas shifts southwestward. Shorea assamica and Vatica guangxiensis expand by 8.60% to 52.22%, migrating northwest and northeast, respectively. The suitable areas for Hopea hainanensis and Hopea reticulata land decrease by 21.70% and 1.61%, respectively, under the SSPs126 scenario, and expand by 26.14% and 13.01%, respectively, under the SSPs585 scenario, with their centers of gravity shifting northeastward; 5) The priority areas for the protection of rare and endangered tree species of the Dipterocarpaceae family are mainly distributed in southern Yunnan Province and central Hainan Province. Currently, the protected area is only 0.515 6×10⁴ km².

【Conclusion】

The optimized MaxEnt model can effectively predict the suitable habitats of various tree species in the Dipterocarpaceae. The priority suitable habitats are not sufficiently protected, so efforts should be made to strengthen their protection and expand the distribution range of each tree species.

Key words

rare and endangered / Dipterocarpaceae / MaxEnt / Marxan / climate change

引用本文

黎宏琴, 殷晓洁, 王妍, 唐继敏. 中国珍稀濒危龙脑香科树种分布预测及保护优先区. 中南林业科技大学学报, 2026 , 46 (6) : 80 -90 . DOI: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.06.008

Hongqin LI, Xiaojie YIN, Yan WANG, Jimin TANG. Prediction of the distribution of rare and endangered Dipterocarpaceae tree species in China and research on priority conservation areas[J]. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology, 2026 , 46 (6) : 80 -90 . DOI: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.06.008

基金

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国家自然科学基金项目(31700467)
云南省重大科研专项(202202AD080010)
云南省基础研究专项(202401AT070294)
云南省“兴滇英才支持计划”青年人才项目(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0251)
云南省重点研发计划项目(202503AP140004)

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2026年第46卷第6期

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文章信息

doi: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.06.008

接收时间：2025-06-28
首发时间：2026-10-30
出版时间：2026-06-25

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出版历史

收稿日期：2025-06-28
修回日期：2025-08-15

基金

国家自然科学基金项目(31700467)

云南省重大科研专项(202202AD080010)

云南省基础研究专项(202401AT070294)

云南省“兴滇英才支持计划”青年人才项目(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0251)

云南省重点研发计划项目(202503AP140004)

作者信息

^1.西南林业大学　林学院，云南　昆明　650224

^2.云南省山地农村生态环境演变与污染治理重点实验室，云南　昆明　650224

^3.云南省跨境森林保护空间智能工程国际联合实验室，云南　昆明　650224

通讯作者:

殷晓洁（xjyinanne@163.com），副教授，硕士研究生导师。

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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