中南林业科技大学学报

旅游业碳排放的驱动机制与达峰路径模拟——基于STIRPAT模型的湖南例证

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王晶 ¹ , 马思熠 ¹ , 朱潇婷 ²

中南林业科技大学学报 | 生态旅游 2026,46(10): 244-256

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中南林业科技大学学报 |生态旅游 2026 , 46 (10) : 244 -256

旅游业碳排放的驱动机制与达峰路径模拟——基于STIRPAT模型的湖南例证

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王晶¹, 马思熠¹, 朱潇婷²

作者信息

^1.湖南师范大学　旅游学院，湖南　长沙　410000

^2.杭州市文化创意产业发展中心，浙江　杭州　311500

通讯作者:

马思熠（13583706883@163.com）。

作者简介:

王晶（wangjing@hunnu.edu.cn），教授，博士，硕士研究生导师。

Driving mechanisms and peak pathways of tourism carbon emissions: a case study of Hunan based on the STIRPAT model

Jing Wang¹, Siyi Ma¹, Xiaoting Zhu²

Affiliations

^1.College of Tourism, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410000, Hunan, China

^2.Hangzhou Cultural and Creative Industry Development Center, Hangzhou 311500, Zhejiang, China

出版时间: 2026-10-25 doi: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.10.022

文章导航

摘要

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【目的】

在全球应对气候变化与推进“双碳”目标的背景下，科学评估省域尺度旅游业碳排放的动态演变、驱动机制及未来演化路径，是制定差异化减排策略的关键。

【方法】

以湖南省为案例，构建“自上而下”与“自下而上”相结合的混合核算框架，系统测度2006—2025年旅游业碳排放规模与结构；引入拓展的STIRPAT模型，结合岭回归分析解析其关键驱动因素；进而耦合Tapio脱钩模型与多情景模拟分析，研判其达峰路径。

【结果】

1）从排放规模看，湖南省旅游碳排放于2019年达到阶段性历史峰值1 781.43万吨，2023—2025年强势反弹至1 688.97万吨，交通和游览碳排放占比达74%~84%；2）从驱动因素看，游客规模是首要正向驱动因素（弹性系数0.648 7），能耗强度贡献相对滞后（弹性系数0.106 6），表明当前增长仍以规模扩张为主导，技术减排效应尚未充分显现；3）从脱钩态势看，2006—2025年脱钩状态以弱脱钩为主（9次），强脱钩仅于2008年出现一次，系外部冲击所致，2022年的脱钩指数异常升高属特殊时期表现，低碳转型的稳定性仍有待巩固；4）多情景预测表明，在强化政策约束的强低碳情景下，碳排放于2030年达到峰值1 984.9万吨，之后缓慢下降，早于基准情景与低碳情景的持续增长态势。

【结论】

游客规模与能耗强度的相对变化速率是决定达峰能否实现的关键，唯有在控制游客规模增速与降低能耗强度两个维度上同步推进，方可实现趋势性转折。本研究构建了由总量核算、驱动分解、情景模拟构成的系统性分析框架，可为省域旅游低碳发展政策的制定提供定量决策参考。

关键词

旅游碳排放 / STIRPAT模型 / Tapio脱钩模型 / 情景预测 / 湖南省

Abstract

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【Objective】

Under the global context of climate change and the pursuit of carbon peaking and neutrality goals, scientifically assessing the dynamic evolution, driving mechanisms, and future evolution pathways of tourism-related carbon emissions at the provincial scale is critical for formulating differentiated emission reduction strategies.

【Method】

Taking Hunan Province as a case study, this paper develops a hybrid accounting framework that integrates top-down and bottom-up approaches to systematically measure the magnitude and structure of tourism carbon emissions from 2006 to 2025. An extended STIRPAT model combined with ridge regression is employed to identify key driving factors, while the Tapio decoupling model and multi-scenario simulation are coupled to project peak emission pathways.

【Result】

1) In terms of emission scale, tourism carbon emissions in Hunan reached a staged historical peak of 17.814 3 million tons in 2019, rebounding strongly to 16.889 7 million tons from 2023 to 2025, with transportation and sightseeing activities accounting for 74%-84% of total emissions; 2) Regarding driving factors, tourist volume is the primary positive driving factor (elasticity coefficient 0.648 7), while energy intensity shows a relatively marginal contribution (elasticity coefficient 0.106 6), indicating that current growth remains dominated by scale expansion, with technological mitigation effects not yet fully materialized; 3) In terms of decoupling trends, the dominant decoupling state from 2006 to 2025 is weak decoupling (9 occurrences), with strong decoupling occurring only once in 2008 due to external shocks; the abnormally high decoupling index in 2022 reflects exceptional circumstances, suggesting that low-carbon transition stability still requires consolidation; 4) Multi-scenario prediction indicate that under the stringent low-carbon scenario with enhanced policy constraints, emissions will peak at 19.849 million tons in 2030 and then decline gradually, contrasting with the persistent growth trajectories under the baseline and moderate low-carbon scenarios.

【Conclusion】

The relative rate of change between tourist volume and energy intensity is the decisive factor for achieving the peak; only by simultaneously curbing tourist growth and reducing energy intensity can a trend reversal be realized. This study establishes a systematic analytical framework encompassing aggregate accounting, driver decomposition, and scenario simulation, providing quantitative decision-making references for the formulation of low-carbon tourism development policies at the provincial level.

Key words

tourism carbon emissions / STIRPAT model / Tapio decoupling model / scenario prediction / Hunan Province

引用本文

王晶, 马思熠, 朱潇婷. 旅游业碳排放的驱动机制与达峰路径模拟——基于STIRPAT模型的湖南例证. 中南林业科技大学学报, 2026 , 46 (10) : 244 -256 . DOI: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.10.022

Jing Wang, Siyi Ma, Xiaoting Zhu. Driving mechanisms and peak pathways of tourism carbon emissions: a case study of Hunan based on the STIRPAT model[J]. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology, 2026 , 46 (10) : 244 -256 . DOI: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.10.022

基金

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国家社会科学基金项目(25BGL155)
国家级大学生创新创业项目(S202410542050)

参考文献

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2026年第46卷第10期

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doi: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.10.022

接收时间：2025-11-15
首发时间：2026-10-30
出版时间：2026-10-25

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收稿日期：2025-11-15
修回日期：2026-02-09

基金

国家社会科学基金项目(25BGL155)

国家级大学生创新创业项目(S202410542050)

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^1.湖南师范大学　旅游学院，湖南　长沙　410000

^2.杭州市文化创意产业发展中心，浙江　杭州　311500

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马思熠（13583706883@163.com）。

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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