中南林业科技大学学报

湖南省森林景观格局对碳储量的非线性影响及其驱动因素分析

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冯益星 ¹ , 戴美琪 ¹ , 陈媛媛 ² , 罗芬 ¹

中南林业科技大学学报 | 生态学 2026,46(8): 184-194

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中南林业科技大学学报 |生态学 2026 , 46 (8) : 184 -194

湖南省森林景观格局对碳储量的非线性影响及其驱动因素分析

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冯益星¹, 戴美琪¹, 陈媛媛², 罗芬¹

作者信息

^1.中南林业科技大学　国家公园与旅游学院，湖南　长沙　410004

^2.东北林业大学　园林学院，黑龙江　哈尔滨　150083

通讯作者:

戴美琪（dmq1966@163.com），教授，博士。

作者简介:

冯益星（fengyixing2020@163.com），硕士研究生。

Nonlinear effects of forest landscape patterns on carbon storage and their driving factors in Hunan Province

Yixing Feng¹, Meiqi Dai¹, Yuanyuan Chen², Fen Luo¹

Affiliations

^1.School of National Park and Tourism, Central South University of Forestry & Technology, Changsha 410004, Hunan, China

^2.College of Landscape Architecture, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150083, Heilongjiang, China

出版时间: 2026-08-25 doi: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.08.018

文章导航

摘要

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【目的】

探讨并评估湖南省森林景观格局与碳储量的非线性响应关系和驱动机制，优化森林管理和提升区域碳汇功能。

【方法】

基于湖南省2000—2020年土地利用数据，结合Fragstats软件与移动窗口法评估区域森林景观格局，借助InVEST模型分析碳储量的时空变化特征，采用随机森林机器学习方法明确森林景观格局对区域碳储量的非线性影响，运用XGBoost-SHAP模型分析自然与社会经济要素对碳储量的驱动强度。

【结果】

1）2000—2020年，湖南省森林景观斑块密度由1.2升至1.4，散布与并列指数由55.7升至59.5，表明森林景观破碎化程度有所增强，不同景观类型之间的空间交错更加明显。2）湖南省碳储量从20.97亿t下降至20.86亿t，同时碳储量空间分布极不均衡，主要集中在湘南、湘西，长株潭城市群的总碳储量持续下降。3）森林景观格局中，Shannon's多样性指数、斑块密度和蔓延度与碳总量、地上碳储量、地下碳储量、土壤碳储量均呈正相关。4）GDP、温度和人口密度是驱动单位碳储量变化的主要因子，其中GDP的正向驱动作用最为显著，SHAP值为0.61。

【结论】

通过优化森林景观结构、加大经济投入，实现区域碳储存功能的可持续提升，为探究森林景观格局演变与碳储量的动态关系以及开展森林管理实践提供了科学依据。

关键词

湖南省 / 森林景观格局 / 碳储量 / 机器学习 / 驱动因素

Abstract

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【Objective】

To explore and evaluate the nonlinear response relationship and driving mechanisms between forest landscape patterns and carbon storage in Hunan Province, and to optimize forest management and enhance regional carbon sequestration capacity.

【Method】

Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Hunan Province, forest landscape patterns were assessed using the Fragstats and moving window method. The Invest model was used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of carbon storage. On this basis, the random forest machine learning method was applied to clarify the nonlinear impact of forest landscape patterns on regional carbon storage. Finally, the XGBoost-SHAP model was employed to analyze the driving intensity of natural and socio-economic factors on carbon storage.

【Result】

1) From 2000 to 2020, forest patch density in Hunan Province increased from 1.2 to 1.4, while the interspersion and juxtaposition index increased from 55.7 to 59.5. This indicates intensified forest landscape fragmentation and more pronounced spatial interspersion among different landscape types; 2) The total carbon storage in Hunan Province decreased from 2.097 billion tons to 2.086 billion tonnes, with the spatial distribution of carbon storage being extremely uneven, concentrated mainly in the southern and western regions of Hunan. The total carbon storage in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration continued to decline; 3) Shannon's diversity index, patch density, and contagion index positive correlations with total carbon, aboveground, and soil carbon storage; 4) GDP, temperature, and population density are the main factors driving the changes in unit carbon storage, with GDP having the most significant positive driving effect (SHAP = 0.61).

【Conclusion】

This study emphasizes that optimizing forest landscape structure and increasing economic investment can sustainably enhance regional carbon storage capacity. The findings provide a scientific basis for understanding the dynamic relationship between forest landscape pattern evolution and carbon storage, as well as for forest management practices.

Key words

Hunan Province / forest landscape pattern / carbon storage / machine learning / driving factors

引用本文

冯益星, 戴美琪, 陈媛媛, 罗芬. 湖南省森林景观格局对碳储量的非线性影响及其驱动因素分析. 中南林业科技大学学报, 2026 , 46 (8) : 184 -194 . DOI: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.08.018

Yixing Feng, Meiqi Dai, Yuanyuan Chen, Fen Luo. Nonlinear effects of forest landscape patterns on carbon storage and their driving factors in Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology, 2026 , 46 (8) : 184 -194 . DOI: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.08.018

基金

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湖南省林业科技创新资金项目(XLKY202219)
自然科学结转科研项目(19801/3176)

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2026年第46卷第8期

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文章信息

doi: 10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.08.018

接收时间：2025-08-03
首发时间：2026-10-30
出版时间：2026-08-25

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出版历史

收稿日期：2025-08-03
修回日期：2025-10-20

基金

湖南省林业科技创新资金项目(XLKY202219)

自然科学结转科研项目(19801/3176)

作者信息

^1.中南林业科技大学　国家公园与旅游学院，湖南　长沙　410004

^2.东北林业大学　园林学院，黑龙江　哈尔滨　150083

通讯作者:

戴美琪（dmq1966@163.com），教授，博士。

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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/znlykj/CN/10.14067/j.cnki.1673-923x.2026.08.018

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

科 Family	属数 Number of genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)	属 Genus	种数 Number of species	占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae	2	11	5.26	鹅膏菌属 Amanita	10	4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae	2	12	5.74	丝盖伞属 Inocybe	5	2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae	8	14	6.70	蜡蘑属 Laccaria	5	2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae	3	23	11.00	小皮伞属 Marasmius	6	2.87
				小菇属 Mycena	11	5.26
				光柄菇属 Pluteus	5	2.39
				红菇属 Russula	17	8.13
				栓菌属 Trametes	5	2.39

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