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Article(id=1259565968007807727, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, issueId=1259565961842123095, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2026.02.014, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1757001600000, receivedDateStr=2025-09-05, revisedDate=1763568000000, revisedDateStr=2025-11-20, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1778233528377, onlineDateStr=2026-05-08, pubDate=1770652800000, pubDateStr=2026-02-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1778233528377, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-05-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1778233528377, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1778233528377, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1259565961842123095, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, year='2026', volume='30', issue='2', pageStart='125', pageEnd='242', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1778233526907, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1778233940379, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1259567696174301345, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, issueId=1259565961842123095, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1259567696174301346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, issueId=1259565961842123095, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=227, endPage=232, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1259565970071405302, articleId=1259565968007807727, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, language=EN, title=Analysis of influenza epidemiological trends in Macao Special Administrative Region, China, 2009-2024, columnId=1259565969912021748, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention, columnName=Short Reports, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the epidemiological trends of influenza in Macao Special Administrative Region of China from 2009 to 2024, and to provide scientific evidence for influenza prevention and policy-making.

Methods

Data were obtained from the mandatory reporting disease statistics on the Macao Health Bureau's website. The annual reported crude incidence rates and incidence rates by gender and age groups were calculated. Additionally, the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of the crude incidence rate of influenza in Macao SAR, the annual percentage change (APC), the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

Results

The median of reported influenza cases in Macao Special Administrative Region, China was 3 363 from 2009 to 2024; and the median crude incidence rate was 502.83 per 100 000; the male's (51.09%) median incidence rate was 513.62 per 100 000, and the female's (48.91%) was 492.82 per 100 000. Furthermore, the median incidence rate for the 0- < 15 age group was the highest at 2 553.50 per 100 000, which was statistically significantly different from that of other age groups (all P < 0.001). AAPC in the crude annual incidence rate of influenza for the entire population was 3.77% (95% CI: -14.31%-26.32%); the trend of APC was 12.57% (95% CI: 1.49%-24.85%, P=0.027) from 2009 to 2018, -58.41% (95% CI: -86.63%-29.36%) from 2018 to 2021, and 314.08% (95% CI: 134.79%-630.27%, P < 0.001) from 2021 to 2024.

Conclusions

The reported crude incidence rate of influenza in Macao has shown an increasing trend, with the most significant rise observed during 2021-2024, particularly among children and adtoolescents. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen health education and promotion on influenza prevention and to enhance influenza vaccination coverage for children and adolescents.

, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
CHEN Qing, E-mail:
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目的

分析中国澳门特别行政区(简称澳门)2009―2024年流行性感冒(简称流感)的流行趋势，为预防流感及制定政策提供科学依据。

方法

数据来源于澳门卫生局网页的强制性申报疾病统计资料。计算年度报告粗发病率、性别与年龄组的发病率，并使用Joinpoint回归模型对流感的粗发病率进行趋势分析、计算年度变化百分比(annual percentage change, APC)、平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)。

结果

2009―2024年澳门年度报告流感发病例数中位数为3 363例，年度报告粗发病率中位数为502.83/10万。其中，男性(51.09%)有513.62/10万，女性(48.91%)有492.82/10万；以0~＜15岁年龄组最高(2 553.50/10万)，与其他年龄组的差异均有统计学意义(均P < 0.001)。全人群的流感年度报告粗发病率AAPC为3.77%(95% CI: -14.31%~26.32%)；APC在2009―2018年为12.57%(95% CI: 1.49%~24.85%, P=0.027)，在2018―2021年为-58.41%(95% CI: -86.63%~29.36%)，在2021―2024年为314.08%(95% CI: 134.79%~630.27%, P < 0.001)。

结论

澳门的流感报告粗发病率呈上升趋势，其中2021―2024年上升较为突出，以儿童青少年为主。应加强预防流感的健康卫生宣传教育，提高流感疫苗接种率。

, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
陈清，E-mail:
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(2025-02-05)[2025-10-26]. https://www.macaodaily.com/html/2025-02/05/content_1811340.htm., articleTitle=null, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1259565972181140244, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1259565972206306070, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, companyId=1259565972181140244, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1259565972214694680, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, companyId=1259565972181140244, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1南方医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学系，广州 510515)]), AuthorCompany(id=1259565972269220633, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1259565972277609242, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, companyId=1259565972269220633, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Government of Macao Special Administrative Region-Health Bureau, Macao Special Administrative Region 999078, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1259565972281803547, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, companyId=1259565972269220633, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2澳门特别行政区政府卫生局疾病预防及控制中心，澳门特别行政区 999078)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1259565981383443307, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Joinpoint analysis of annual reported incidence rates of influenza by gender and age groups in Macao Special Administrative Region of China, 2009-2024, figureFileSmall=Ve0vBTzRnaKGzQ1RRZVYGA==, figureFileBig=eMd7wE+ro1qe9pMCHMm9LA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1259565981874176879, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2009―2024年澳门特别行政区性别及年龄段流行性感冒报告年度发病率的Joinpoint分析

APC：年度变化百分比。

, figureFileSmall=Ve0vBTzRnaKGzQ1RRZVYGA==, figureFileBig=eMd7wE+ro1qe9pMCHMm9LA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1259565983153439605, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Annual trends in reported influenza incidence and etiological surveillance in Macao Special Administrative Region of China, 2009-2024

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份Year报告例数
Numbers of reported cases/%①		环比
Link relative ratio/%		报告粗发病率
Report crude incidence rate/100 000-1		发病率
Incidence rate/100 000-1
男性
Male		女性
Female
20095 109(81.94)―938.811 021.12860.57
20101 759(60.28)-65.57322.99335.77311.40
20111 816(66.37)3.24330.42325.24335.20
20124 090(81.80)125.22720.20745.17696.87
20131 034(53.11)-74.72174.69186.21163.95
20142 040(66.75)97.29326.92336.91317.23
20152 834(68.75)38.92440.82453.23428.70
20163 309(70.95)16.76507.13514.54500.00
20174 110(72.00)24.21633.87675.06597.08
20185 984(76.54)45.60908.18941.80878.43
201914 749(90.46)146.472 194.792 330.052 075.80
20203 417(81.38)-76.83498.54512.70485.64
202166(7.38)-98.079.678.1611.00
20222 888(47.44)4 275.76426.40466.25391.03
202322 043(91.50)663.263 247.353 792.682 769.83
202414 230(84.24)-35.442 071.322 211.201 949.65
总数Total89 478―885.23947.68828.24
中位数Median3 36324.21502.83513.62492.82
上四分位数Upper quartile5 328111.26915.84961.63865.04
下四分位数Lower quartile1 984-50.51329.55336.63330.71
最大值Max22 0434 275.763 247.353 792.682 769.83
最小值Min66.00-98.079.678.1611.00
Z值value―――-0.490
P值value―――0.624
年份Year年龄组发病率
Incidence rate among
age groups/100 000-1		流行性感冒病毒分型
Influenza virus subtyping/%②
0~＜1515~＜65≥65甲型未分系
A(unsubtyped)		甲型H1N1亚型
A(H1N1)		甲型H3N2亚型
A(H3N2)		乙型未分系
B(unsubtyped)
20094 008.65527.8786.21――――
20101 244.87192.89172.09――――
20111 429.00188.3687.72――――
20124 045.32279.71300.24――――
20131 014.7166.1960.22――――
20141 753.21143.37183.63――――
20152 172.69208.07259.93――――
20163 132.15147.45144.041 (0.16)194 (30.89)132 (21.02)301 (47.93)
20172 934.31273.47501.522 (0.22)122 (13.63)657 (73.41)114 (12.74)
20184 832.94335.52265.542 (0.22)381 (41.06)62 (6.68)483 (52.05)
201910 466.97982.03562.832 (0.16)379 (30.71)346 (28.04)507 (41.09)
20202 059.60276.60163.884 (1.47)197 (72.16)60 (21.98)12 (4.40)
202142.684.571.230 (0.00)0 (0.00)0 (0.00)9 (100.00)
20221 582.56221.10293.781 (0.17)0 (0.00)560 (93.33)39 (6.50)
202315 850.651 341.30833.3318 (0.90)504 (25.30)1 078 (54.12)392 (19.68)
20248 551.251 106.411 200.4144 (2.86)691 (44.84)472 (30.63)334 (21.67)
总数Total4 260.45395.91378.5674 (0.91)2 468 (30.47)3 367 (41.57)2 191 (27.05)
中位数Median2 553.50247.28221.782.00288.00346.00301.00
上四分位数Upper quartile4 242.22383.61350.564.00412.00560.00392.00
下四分位数Lower quartile1 544.17178.13129.961.00176.0062.0039.00
最大值Max15 850.651 341.301 200.4144.00691.001 078.00507.00
最小值Min42.684.571.230009.00
Z值value-4.146③-4.221④-0.641⑤――――
P值value< 0.001< 0.0010.522――――
), ArticleFig(id=1259565983841305464, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2009―2024年澳门特别行政区流行性感冒报告发病率及病原学监测年度趋势变化情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份Year报告例数
Numbers of reported cases/%①		环比
Link relative ratio/%		报告粗发病率
Report crude incidence rate/100 000-1		发病率
Incidence rate/100 000-1
男性
Male		女性
Female
20095 109(81.94)―938.811 021.12860.57
20101 759(60.28)-65.57322.99335.77311.40
20111 816(66.37)3.24330.42325.24335.20
20124 090(81.80)125.22720.20745.17696.87
20131 034(53.11)-74.72174.69186.21163.95
20142 040(66.75)97.29326.92336.91317.23
20152 834(68.75)38.92440.82453.23428.70
20163 309(70.95)16.76507.13514.54500.00
20174 110(72.00)24.21633.87675.06597.08
20185 984(76.54)45.60908.18941.80878.43
201914 749(90.46)146.472 194.792 330.052 075.80
20203 417(81.38)-76.83498.54512.70485.64
202166(7.38)-98.079.678.1611.00
20222 888(47.44)4 275.76426.40466.25391.03
202322 043(91.50)663.263 247.353 792.682 769.83
202414 230(84.24)-35.442 071.322 211.201 949.65
总数Total89 478―885.23947.68828.24
中位数Median3 36324.21502.83513.62492.82
上四分位数Upper quartile5 328111.26915.84961.63865.04
下四分位数Lower quartile1 984-50.51329.55336.63330.71
最大值Max22 0434 275.763 247.353 792.682 769.83
最小值Min66.00-98.079.678.1611.00
Z值value―――-0.490
P值value―――0.624
年份Year年龄组发病率
Incidence rate among
age groups/100 000-1		流行性感冒病毒分型
Influenza virus subtyping/%②
0~＜1515~＜65≥65甲型未分系
A(unsubtyped)		甲型H1N1亚型
A(H1N1)		甲型H3N2亚型
A(H3N2)		乙型未分系
B(unsubtyped)
20094 008.65527.8786.21――――
20101 244.87192.89172.09――――
20111 429.00188.3687.72――――
20124 045.32279.71300.24――――
20131 014.7166.1960.22――――
20141 753.21143.37183.63――――
20152 172.69208.07259.93――――
20163 132.15147.45144.041 (0.16)194 (30.89)132 (21.02)301 (47.93)
20172 934.31273.47501.522 (0.22)122 (13.63)657 (73.41)114 (12.74)
20184 832.94335.52265.542 (0.22)381 (41.06)62 (6.68)483 (52.05)
201910 466.97982.03562.832 (0.16)379 (30.71)346 (28.04)507 (41.09)
20202 059.60276.60163.884 (1.47)197 (72.16)60 (21.98)12 (4.40)
202142.684.571.230 (0.00)0 (0.00)0 (0.00)9 (100.00)
20221 582.56221.10293.781 (0.17)0 (0.00)560 (93.33)39 (6.50)
202315 850.651 341.30833.3318 (0.90)504 (25.30)1 078 (54.12)392 (19.68)
20248 551.251 106.411 200.4144 (2.86)691 (44.84)472 (30.63)334 (21.67)
总数Total4 260.45395.91378.5674 (0.91)2 468 (30.47)3 367 (41.57)2 191 (27.05)
中位数Median2 553.50247.28221.782.00288.00346.00301.00
上四分位数Upper quartile4 242.22383.61350.564.00412.00560.00392.00
下四分位数Lower quartile1 544.17178.13129.961.00176.0062.0039.00
最大值Max15 850.651 341.301 200.4144.00691.001 078.00507.00
最小值Min42.684.571.230009.00
Z值value-4.146③-4.221④-0.641⑤――――
P值value< 0.001< 0.0010.522――――
), ArticleFig(id=1259565984302678908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Joinpoint analysis of annual trend in reported influenza incidence in Macao Special Administrative Region of China, 2009-2024

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因素Factor2009―2024年year
AAPC(95% CI)/%		APC(95% CI)/%
2009―2018年year2018―2021年year2021―2024年year
年度报告粗发病率Annual report crude incidence rate/100 000-13.77(-14.31~26.32)
性别Gender19.69(-6.43~53.10)12.57(1.49~24.85)①-58.41(-86.63~29.36)314.08(134.79~630.27)②
年龄组/岁Age group /years
  0~＜1519.54(-21.53~82.09)15.33(-5.23~40.36)-62.44(-95.63~222.81)323.55(44.48~1141.64)①
  15~＜6518.56(-19.74~75.15)7.44(-10.44~28.89)-52.70(-93.56~247.41)299.41(47.37~982.47)①
性别×年龄组/岁Gender × age group/years
  男性Male：0~＜1520.07(-21.73~84.19)14.93(-5.87~40.33)-64.45(-96.01~216.62)362.44(54.95~1280.07)①
  男性Male：15~＜6519.22(-21.53~81.13)6.75(-12.17~29.75)-50.91(-94.21~316.16)303.32(38.51~1074.35)①
  女性Female：0~＜1519.07(-21.23~79.98)15.95(-4.37~40.60)-60.79(-95.25~223.86)291.54(36.24~1025.27)①
  女性Female：15~＜6517.98(-18.43~70.64)7.92(-9.15~28.19)-54.05(-93.03~202.95)295.88(54.17~916.51)②
), ArticleFig(id=1259565984701137793, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565968007807727, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2009―2024年澳门特别行政区流行性感冒报告发病率年度趋势变化Joinpoint回归分析结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因素Factor2009―2024年year
AAPC(95% CI)/%		APC(95% CI)/%
2009―2018年year2018―2021年year2021―2024年year
年度报告粗发病率Annual report crude incidence rate/100 000-13.77(-14.31~26.32)
性别Gender19.69(-6.43~53.10)12.57(1.49~24.85)①-58.41(-86.63~29.36)314.08(134.79~630.27)②
年龄组/岁Age group /years
  0~＜1519.54(-21.53~82.09)15.33(-5.23~40.36)-62.44(-95.63~222.81)323.55(44.48~1141.64)①
  15~＜6518.56(-19.74~75.15)7.44(-10.44~28.89)-52.70(-93.56~247.41)299.41(47.37~982.47)①
性别×年龄组/岁Gender × age group/years
  男性Male：0~＜1520.07(-21.73~84.19)14.93(-5.87~40.33)-64.45(-96.01~216.62)362.44(54.95~1280.07)①
  男性Male：15~＜6519.22(-21.53~81.13)6.75(-12.17~29.75)-50.91(-94.21~316.16)303.32(38.51~1074.35)①
  女性Female：0~＜1519.07(-21.23~79.98)15.95(-4.37~40.60)-60.79(-95.25~223.86)291.54(36.24~1025.27)①
  女性Female：15~＜6517.98(-18.43~70.64)7.92(-9.15~28.19)-54.05(-93.03~202.95)295.88(54.17~916.51)②
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2009—2024年中国澳门特别行政区流行性感冒流行趋势分析
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陈文诗 1, 2 , 陈清 1
中华疾病控制杂志 | 短篇论著 2026,30(2): 227-232
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中华疾病控制杂志 | 短篇论著 2026, 30(2): 227-232
2009—2024年中国澳门特别行政区流行性感冒流行趋势分析
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陈文诗1, 2, 陈清1
作者信息
  • 1南方医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学系，广州 510515
  • 2澳门特别行政区政府卫生局疾病预防及控制中心，澳门特别行政区 999078

通讯作者:

陈清，E-mail:
Analysis of influenza epidemiological trends in Macao Special Administrative Region, China, 2009-2024
Wenshi CHEN1, 2, Qing CHEN1
Affiliations
  • 1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
  • 2Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Government of Macao Special Administrative Region-Health Bureau, Macao Special Administrative Region 999078, China
出版时间: 2026-02-10 doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2026.02.014
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摘要
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目的

分析中国澳门特别行政区(简称澳门)2009―2024年流行性感冒(简称流感)的流行趋势，为预防流感及制定政策提供科学依据。

方法

数据来源于澳门卫生局网页的强制性申报疾病统计资料。计算年度报告粗发病率、性别与年龄组的发病率，并使用Joinpoint回归模型对流感的粗发病率进行趋势分析、计算年度变化百分比(annual percentage change, APC)、平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)。

结果

2009―2024年澳门年度报告流感发病例数中位数为3 363例，年度报告粗发病率中位数为502.83/10万。其中，男性(51.09%)有513.62/10万，女性(48.91%)有492.82/10万；以0~＜15岁年龄组最高(2 553.50/10万)，与其他年龄组的差异均有统计学意义(均P < 0.001)。全人群的流感年度报告粗发病率AAPC为3.77%(95% CI: -14.31%~26.32%)；APC在2009―2018年为12.57%(95% CI: 1.49%~24.85%, P=0.027)，在2018―2021年为-58.41%(95% CI: -86.63%~29.36%)，在2021―2024年为314.08%(95% CI: 134.79%~630.27%, P < 0.001)。

结论

澳门的流感报告粗发病率呈上升趋势，其中2021―2024年上升较为突出，以儿童青少年为主。应加强预防流感的健康卫生宣传教育，提高流感疫苗接种率。

流行性感冒  /  法定报告传染病  /  趋势分析  /  Joinpoint回归模型
Objective

To analyze the epidemiological trends of influenza in Macao Special Administrative Region of China from 2009 to 2024, and to provide scientific evidence for influenza prevention and policy-making.

Methods

Data were obtained from the mandatory reporting disease statistics on the Macao Health Bureau's website. The annual reported crude incidence rates and incidence rates by gender and age groups were calculated. Additionally, the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trends of the crude incidence rate of influenza in Macao SAR, the annual percentage change (APC), the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

Results

The median of reported influenza cases in Macao Special Administrative Region, China was 3 363 from 2009 to 2024; and the median crude incidence rate was 502.83 per 100 000; the male's (51.09%) median incidence rate was 513.62 per 100 000, and the female's (48.91%) was 492.82 per 100 000. Furthermore, the median incidence rate for the 0- < 15 age group was the highest at 2 553.50 per 100 000, which was statistically significantly different from that of other age groups (all P < 0.001). AAPC in the crude annual incidence rate of influenza for the entire population was 3.77% (95% CI: -14.31%-26.32%); the trend of APC was 12.57% (95% CI: 1.49%-24.85%, P=0.027) from 2009 to 2018, -58.41% (95% CI: -86.63%-29.36%) from 2018 to 2021, and 314.08% (95% CI: 134.79%-630.27%, P < 0.001) from 2021 to 2024.

Conclusions

The reported crude incidence rate of influenza in Macao has shown an increasing trend, with the most significant rise observed during 2021-2024, particularly among children and adtoolescents. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen health education and promotion on influenza prevention and to enhance influenza vaccination coverage for children and adolescents.

Influenza  /  Statutory reporting infectious diseases  /  Epidemiological trends  /  Joinpoint regression model
陈文诗, 陈清. 2009—2024年中国澳门特别行政区流行性感冒流行趋势分析. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2026 , 30 (2) : 227 -232 . DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2026.02.014
Wenshi CHEN, Qing CHEN. Analysis of influenza epidemiological trends in Macao Special Administrative Region, China, 2009-2024[J]. Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention, 2026 , 30 (2) : 227 -232 . DOI: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2026.02.014
正文
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中国澳门特别行政区(简称澳门)2000―2023年法定传染病报告例数呈上升趋势[1]，报告的法定传染病个案以感染经空气或飞沫传播的传染病为主，占全部报告例数的65.26%；又以流行性感冒[(简称流感)，77.40%]为主；若出现流感流行，可能会对澳门的民生和经济造成较广泛和严重的影响。本研究分析澳门2009―2024年流感的流行趋势，为预防及制定相关政策提供科学依据。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
2009―2024年澳门流感法定报告病例数据及2016―2024年流感病原学监测数据，均来源于澳门卫生局网页内的强制性申报疾病(即法定报告的传染病)统计资料与流感样疾病和新冠病毒感染监测资料[2]。人口数据来自澳门统计暨普查局网页[3]。数据不涉及医学伦理及知情同意。
1.2　研究方法
1.2.1　质量控制
流感病例的法定报告资料经澳门卫生局疾病预防及控制中心人员审核，并对申报的个案进行流行病学调查；对实验室结果呈阳性的确诊个案资料进行汇总、分析与发布。
1.2.2　研究方法
采用描述性流行病学方法，计算年度报告粗发病率、性别与年龄组发病率；采用Joinpoint回归模型对2009―2024年澳门流感的年度报告粗发病率进行趋势分析[4]，并计算年度变化百分比(annual percentage change, APC)、平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)及其95% CI[5]。
1.3　统计学方法
采用Microsoft Excel 2019软件进行数据整理，采用R 4.5.0软件进行统计分析，趋势分析采用Joinpoint Regression Program 5.4软件。计量数据中的年度报告粗发病率呈偏态分布，采用M(P25, P75)描述，两组间差异性比较采用Mann-Whitney U检验，多组间差异性比较采用Kruskal-Wallis H检验；计数资料采用百分比进行描述。在Joinpoint回归模型建立的参数设置中[8-9]，由于因变量(粗发病率)呈指数分布，故选用对数进行数据转换；而性别、年龄组比较采用恒方差进行计算；模型采用默认的网格搜索法探索区间分段函数连接点；并按建议在16年的数据中，最多连接点数设定为2；模型的最优筛选采用默认数据驱动的加权贝叶斯信息准则方法。检验水准α=0.05。
2　结果
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2.1　发病及病原学监测概况
2009―2024年澳门共报告流感发病例数89 478例，年度报告流感发病例数中位数为3 363例，年度报告粗发病率中位数为502.83/10万(329.55/10万, 915.84/10万)。2016―2024年流感病毒监测共收集58 200个检测标本，阳性标本8 100个，阳性率为13.92%(8 100/58 200)；其中以A(H3N2)亚型为主(41.57%, 3 367/8 100)，其次为A(H1N1)亚型(30.47%, 2 468/8 100)及B型未分系(27.05%, 2 191/8 100)。见表 1。
2.2　人群分布
16年的总报告流感发病例数中，男性为45 713例(51.09%)，男女性别比为1.00∶0.96。男性流感年度报告发病率中位数为513.62/10万(336.63/10万, 961.63/10万)，女性为492.82/10万(330.71/10万, 865.04/10万)，差异无统计学意义(Z=-0.490, P=0.624)。
在年龄组上，0~＜15岁组共报告流感发病例数54 734例(61.17%)，15~＜65岁组报告30 831例(34.46%)，≥65岁组共报告3 912例(4.37%)。0~＜15岁组流感年度报告发病率中位数为2 553.50/10万(1 544.17/10万, 4 242.22/10万)，15~＜65岁组为247.28/10万(178.13/10万, 383.61/10万)，≥65岁组为221.78/10万(129.96/ 10万, 350.56/10万)，差异均有统计学意义(χ2 =23.780, 均P < 0.001)；其中0~＜15岁组的流感年度报告粗发病率中位数高于15~＜65岁组(Z=-4.146, P < 0.001)及≥65岁组(Z=-4.221, P < 0.001)，而15~＜65岁组与≥65岁组之间的差异无统计学意义(Z=-0.641, P=0.522)。
2.3　发病变化趋势分析
2009―2024年澳门全人群的流感年度报告粗发病率AAPC为3.77%(95% CI: -14.31%~26.32%)，不存在折点，即与APC相同。见表 2。
按性别、年龄组及性别与年龄组交互作用的因素分组后，时序数据存在2个折点，位于2018年和2021年，由此分成3个区段∶2009―2018年、2018―2021年、2021―2024年，总体呈现上升-下降-上升的趋势。见图 1。
性别发病率的AAPC为19.69%(95% CI: -6.43%~53.10%)，其APC在2009―2018年为12.57%(95% CI: 1.49%~24.85%, P=0.027)，在2018―2021年为-58.41%(95% CI: -86.63%~29.36%)，在2021―2024年为314.08%(95% CI: 134.79%~630.27%, P < 0.001)；而男女性发病率的差异无统计学意义(P=0.520)。
年龄组发病率中，0~＜15岁组的AAPC为19.54%(95% CI: -21.53%~82.09%)，15~＜65岁组为18.56%(95% CI: -19.74%~75.15%)；两组的APC在2021―2024年分别为323.55%(95% CI: 44.48%~1 141.61%, P=0.015)、299.41%(95% CI: 47.37%~982.47%, P=0.013)。
在性别与年龄组交互作用上，0~＜15岁男性组的AAPC为20.07%(95% CI: -21.73%~84.19%)，女性组为19.07%(95% CI: -21.23%~79.98%)；两组的APC在2021―2024年分别为362.44%(95% CI: 54.95%~1 280.07%, P=0.012)、291.54%(95% CI: 36.24%~1 025.27%, P=0.018)。15~＜65岁男性组的AAPC为19.22%(95% CI: -21.53%~81.13%)，女性组为17.98%(95% CI: -18.43%~70.64%)；两组的APC在2021―2024年分别为303.32%(95% CI: 38.51%~1 074.35%, P=0.017)、295.88%(95% CI: 54.17%~916.51%, P < 0.01)。
3　讨论
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2009―2024年澳门流感的年度报告粗发病率整体呈上升趋势，平均每年上升约3.77%，主要流行的流感病毒为A(H3N2)亚型；16年的流感年度粗发病率有2个转折点，出现在2018年和2021年，分为3个区段：2009―2018年、2018―2021年、2021―2024年；呈现上升-下降-上升的趋势，尤其在2021―2024年呈爆发式上升(上升314.08%)。由于澳门在2019年1月出现冬季流感的高峰，该高峰主要由甲型H1N1流感病毒引起；同年5月出现由B(Victoria)系流感病毒引起的高峰，该病毒只有约15%和当季疫苗匹配[6]；因此澳门2019年流感的报告病例数升幅明显(1.46倍)。此外，澳门于新型冠状病毒感染(简称新冠)疫情初期已全面启动抗疫工作，流感于2020年和2021年分别下降76.83%和98.07%。新冠疫情防控过渡期于2023年1月8日结束及防控进入常态化阶段，此后流感自2022年和2023年分别上升42.76倍和6.63倍。有研究提示[7]，在新冠疫情期间，由于防疫措施严密、个人防护增强，以及保持社交距离等，市民的流感发病率下降，可能导致市民流感免疫空白，以及群体的流感免疫屏障下降；随着市民生活复常、个人卫生防护措施减少，流感发病率出现反跳现象，呈上升趋势。
在人口学因素中，2021―2024年0~＜15岁组男性的年度报告流感粗发病率上升较大(上升362.44%)，其次为15~＜65岁组男性(上升303.32%)；而0~＜15岁组和15~＜65岁组的女性分别上升291.54%和295.88%。提示0~＜15岁组男性为易感人群，应重点加强其个人卫生教育与社交礼仪时注意清洁卫生的意识等；其次据澳门卫生局2024年/2025年流感疫苗接种情况，托儿所、幼稚园、小学及中学的疫苗接种率分别约60%~80%[8]，提示儿童及青少年的流感疫苗接种率仍有待提升。
综上所述，2009―2024年澳门流感的平均年度报告粗发病率平均每年上升约3.77%，上升主要集中在2021―2024年；趋势的变化可能与流感病毒毒株的改变及严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2感染有关。流感粗发病率上升以青少年较为明显。可加强对青少年预防流感的健康卫生宣传教育，并提高儿童及青少年的流感疫苗接种率。
本研究存在的局限性：(1)研究数据来源于医疗机构负责人或医生的申报个案，存在漏报情况；但因申报受到法律的约束，数据可靠性较高；(2)法定报告传染病机制建立初期未完善，部分流感报告数据可能存在缺失。
本研究涵盖2009―2024年共16年的澳门流感法定报告病例数据，有助于全面掌握澳门流感的流行特征与长期变化，研究结果对澳门的流感防控具有较大的参考价值。
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2026年第30卷第2期
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doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2026.02.014
  • 接收时间：2025-09-05
  • 首发时间：2026-05-08
  • 出版时间：2026-02-10
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  • 收稿日期：2025-09-05
  • 修回日期：2025-11-20
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    1南方医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学系，广州 510515
    2澳门特别行政区政府卫生局疾病预防及控制中心，澳门特别行政区 999078

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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