Article(id=1259565965453439741, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, issueId=1259565961842123095, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2026.02.003, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1755619200000, receivedDateStr=2025-08-20, revisedDate=1764691200000, revisedDateStr=2025-12-03, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1778233527768, onlineDateStr=2026-05-08, pubDate=1770652800000, pubDateStr=2026-02-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1778233527768, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-05-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1778233527768, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1778233527768, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1259565961842123095, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, year='2026', volume='30', issue='2', pageStart='125', pageEnd='242', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1778233526907, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1778233940379, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1259567696174301345, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, issueId=1259565961842123095, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1259567696174301346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, issueId=1259565961842123095, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=143, endPage=152, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1259565965960950528, articleId=1259565965453439741, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, language=EN, title=Analysis and prediction of trends in the incidence and mortality of infectious diarrhea in China from 1990 to 2021, columnId=1259565965784789759, journalTitle=Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention, columnName=Original Articles, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective To analyze the trends in the incidence and mortality of infectious diarrhea in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict the incidence and mortality rates for 2022 to 2026, providing evidence for surveillance and prevention strategies.
Methods Data on the incidence and mortality of infectious diarrhea in China from 1990 to 2021 was collected from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends in incidence and mortality. The age-period-cohort model was applied to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on the risk of incidence and mortality. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the incidence and mortality rates of infectious diarrhea in China from 2022 to 2026.
Results Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that from 1990 to 2021, the total, male, and female incidence rates of infectious diarrhea in China showed a declining trend (all P < 0.05), with a slower decrease before 2000 and a more rapid decline thereafter. Total, male, and female mortality rates also declined (all P < 0.05), with a faster decrease prior to 2014 and a slower decline after 2014. Age-period-cohort model analysis revealed that the age effects on incidence and mortality risks for the total, male, and female first decreased and then increased. The RRs of incidence decreased from high values of 2.432, 3.364, and 2.002 in the 0- < 5 age group to the lowest values of 0.478, 0.535, and 0.451 in the 25- < 30 age group. After that, it rose to peak values of 3.204, 2.523, and 3.774 in the ≥85 age group, with all P < 0.001. The RRs of mortality decreased from high values of 3.403, 3.084, and 4.312 in the 0- < 5 age group to the lowest values of 0.061, 0.063, and 0.071 in the 15- < 20 age group, and subsequently increased to peak values of 131.617, 134.317, and 133.610 in the ≥85 age group, with all P < 0.001. The period effects showed a decline trend, with both incidence and mortality RRs reaching their lowest values in 2017-2021, at 0.521, 0.582, 0.498 and 0.273, 0.283, 0.265, respectively, with all P < 0.001. The cohort effects initially increased and then decreased. The RRs of incidence rose from the lowest values of 0.254, 0.312, and 0.214 in 1907-1911 (all P < 0.001) to peak values of 1.868, 1.493, and 2.142 in 1997-2001 (P < 0.001 for the total population and females, P=0.009 for males), and then decreased to low values of 1.212, 0.873, and 1.352 in 2017-2021 (all P>0.05). The RRs of mortality increased from low values of 0.144, 0.165, and 0.143 in 1907-1911 (all P < 0.001) to peak values of 3.613, 3.265, and 3.584 in 2002-2006 (all P < 0.001), and then decreased to low values of 2.315, 2.054, and 2.313 in 2017-2021 (P=0.011 for the total population, P=0.027 for males, P=0.016 for females). Predictions from the ARIMA model suggested that from 2022 to 2026, the incidence of infectious diarrhea in China is projected to show an upward trend, while mortality is expected to continue declining.
Conclusions The incidence and mortality of infectious diarrhea in China are influenced by age, period, and cohort effects. While the incidence shows an upward trend, mortality continues to decline. Children and the elderly remain high-risk populations for both onset and death. Targeted prevention strategies should be implemented to reduce the disease burden of infectious diarrhea.
, correspAuthors=Dongming ZHOU, Qiong CHEN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
, copyrightStatement=Copyright © 2026 Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention. All rights reserved., copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Yuhao WANG, Ting YANG, Zhou XU, Hui LI, You HAN, Dongming ZHOU, Qiong CHEN), CN=ArticleExt(id=1259565970138477328, articleId=1259565965453439741, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, language=CN, title=1990—2021年中国感染性腹泻发病与死亡变化趋势分析及预测研究, columnId=1259565966174860033, journalTitle=中华疾病控制杂志, columnName=论著, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的 分析1990―2021年中国感染性腹泻的发病与死亡变化趋势，并预测2022―2026年的发病率和死亡率，为感染性腹泻的监测和防控提供参考依据。
方法 基于2021年全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease, GBD)数据库获得1990―2021年中国感染性腹泻的发病和死亡数据，采用Joinpoint回归模型分析发病和死亡的时间变化趋势; 采用年龄-时期-队列模型探究感染性腹泻发病和死亡风险的年龄、时期、队列效应; 通过自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型预测2022―2026年中国感染性腹泻的发病率和死亡率。
结果 Joinpoint回归模型结果显示，1990―2021年中国感染性腹泻的总人群、男性及女性发病率均呈下降趋势(均P＜0.05)，2000年前发病率下降较慢，2000年后发病率下降加快; 总人群、男性、女性死亡率呈下降趋势(均P＜0.05)，2014年前下降较快，2014年后下降减慢; 年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示，总人群、男性、女性的发病和死亡风险年龄效应呈现先下降后上升的趋势，发病率RR从0~＜5岁组的高值(2.432、3.364、2.002)下降至25~＜30岁组的最低值(0.478、0.535、0.451)，而后上升至≥85岁组的峰值(3.204、2.523、3.774)，均P < 0.001。死亡率RR从0~＜5岁组的高值(3.403、3.084、4.312)下降至15~＜20岁组的最低值(0.061、0.063、0.071)，而后上升至≥85岁组的峰值(131.617、134.317、133.610)，均P < 0.001。时期效应呈下降趋势，发病率和死亡率RR均降至2017―2021年的最低值，分别为0.521、0.582、0.498和0.273、0.283、0.265，均P < 0.001。队列效应呈现先升高后下降趋势，发病率RR从1907―1911年的最低值[0.254、0.312、0.214(均P < 0.001)]升高至1997―2001年的峰值[1.868、1.493、2.142(总人群、女性P < 0.001，男性P=0.009)]，而后下降至2017―2021年的低值[1.212、0.873、1.352(均P>0.05)]。死亡率RR从1907—1911年的低值[0.144、0.165、0.143(均P < 0.001)]升高至2002―2006年的峰值[3.613、3.265、3.584(均P < 0.001)]，而后下降至2017―2021年的低值[2.315、2.054、2.313(总人群P=0.011，男性P=0.027，女性P=0.016)]。ARIMA模型预测结果显示，2022―2026年中国感染性腹泻发病率呈上升趋势，死亡率呈下降趋势。
结论 中国感染性腹泻发病和死亡受年龄-时期-队列等因素影响，发病率有上升趋势，死亡率持续下降，儿童和老年人是发病和死亡风险较高的人群，应采取精准防控措施降低感染性腹泻的疾病负担。
, correspAuthors=周东明, 陈琼, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
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Trends in incidence and mortality rates of infectious diarrhea in China from 1990 to 2021, figureFileSmall=sT4Sj8CQWR9Bq1B3H9Li/w==, figureFileBig=cKzE7OY5QYkoXzrgf+WwEQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1259565988874433440, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=CN, label=图1, caption=
1990―2021年中国感染性腹泻发病率和死亡率变化趋势A：发病率变化趋势；B：死亡率变化趋势。
, figureFileSmall=sT4Sj8CQWR9Bq1B3H9Li/w==, figureFileBig=cKzE7OY5QYkoXzrgf+WwEQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1259565990279525289, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=
RR analysis of infectious diarrhea incidence in China from 1990 to 2021, figureFileSmall=mwNOQquLdYBCdX8ghcid1g==, figureFileBig=Xx0GwUSfNWMtEgKtMI4Pnw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1259565990933836717, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=CN, label=图2, caption=
1990―2021年中国感染性腹泻发病率RR分析A：年龄；B：时期；C：队列。
, figureFileSmall=mwNOQquLdYBCdX8ghcid1g==, figureFileBig=Xx0GwUSfNWMtEgKtMI4Pnw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1259565991403598769, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=
RR analysis of infectious diarrhea mortality in China from 1990 to 2021, figureFileSmall=ICDa2wc2InICFvtg06YMTw==, figureFileBig=4eSvjtXdNLNPCUrwY2/fEw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1259565991772697524, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=CN, label=图3, caption=
1990―2021年中国感染性腹泻死亡率RR分析A：年龄；B：时期；C：队列。
, figureFileSmall=ICDa2wc2InICFvtg06YMTw==, figureFileBig=4eSvjtXdNLNPCUrwY2/fEw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1259565991944663991, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=
Age-period-cohort model analysis of infectious diarrhea incidence in China from 1990 to 2021
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量
Variable | 总人群Total population | 男性Male | 女性Female |
RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value | RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value | RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value |
| 年龄效应/岁Age effect/years |
| 0~＜5 | 2.432(1.762~3.364) | < 0.001 | 3.364(2.415~4.696) | < 0.001 | 2.002(1.432~2.794) | < 0.001 |
| 5~＜10 | 1.503(1.123~2.014) | 0.006 | 2.056(1.525~2.774) | < 0.001 | 1.213(0.904~1.646) | 0.209 |
| 10~＜15 | 0.924(0.717~1.198) | 0.534 | 1.217(0.938~1.571) | 0.155 | 0.764(0.595~0.996) | 0.044 |
| 15~＜20 | 0.613(0.494~0.765) | < 0.001 | 0.752(0.604~0.943) | < 0.001 | 0.547(0.437~0.674) | 0.011 |
| 20~＜25 | 0.497(0.415~0.584) | < 0.001 | 0.563(0.471~0.672) | < 0.001 | 0.459(0.373~0.541) | < 0.001 |
| 25~＜30 | 0.478(0.416~0.543) | < 0.001 | 0.535(0.463~0.618) | < 0.001 | 0.451(0.394~0.513) | < 0.001 |
| 30~＜35 | 0.512(0.467~0.579) | < 0.001 | 0.567(0.502~0.624) | < 0.001 | 0.493(0.442~0.545) | < 0.001 |
| 35~＜40 | 0.573(0.536~0.617) | < 0.001 | 0.608(0.565~0.649) | < 0.001 | 0.556(0.527~0.598) | < 0.001 |
| 40~＜45 | 0.639(0.617~0.659) | < 0.001 | 0.632(0.616~0.658) | < 0.001 | 0.631(0.604~0.657) | < 0.001 |
| 45~＜50 | 0.694(0.677~0.725) | < 0.001 | 0.673(0.644~0.698) | < 0.001 | 0.713(0.685~0.746) | < 0.001 |
| 50~＜55 | 0.776(0.728~0.823) | < 0.001 | 0.711(0.672~0.763) | < 0.001 | 0.812(0.753~0.865) | < 0.001 |
| 55~＜60 | 0.875(0.792~0.961) | 0.007 | 0.777(0.702~0.863) | < 0.001 | 0.943(0.854~1.047) | 0.238 |
| 60~＜65 | 1.023(0.897~1.172) | 0.779 | 0.874(0.766~1.005) | 0.056 | 1.136(0.987~1.308) | 0.092 |
| 65~＜70 | 1.231(1.033~1.462) | 0.023 | 1.016(0.854~1.228) | 0.879 | 1.383(1.155~1.664) | < 0.001 |
| 70~＜75 | 1.484(1.195~1.836) | < 0.001 | 1.195(0.952~1.494) | 0.123 | 1.682(1.344~2.105) | < 0.001 |
| 75~＜80 | 1.802(1.405~2.337) | < 0.001 | 1.434(1.102~1.867) | 0.008 | 2.077(1.593~2.698) | < 0.001 |
| 80~＜85 | 2.337(1.747~3.128) | < 0.001 | 1.844(1.363~2.487) | < 0.001 | 2.715(2.016~3.661) | < 0.001 |
| ≥85 | 3.204(2.316~4.427) | < 0.001 | 2.523(1.812~3.528) | < 0.001 | 3.774(2.705~5.262) | < 0.001 |
| 时期效应/年份Period effect/year | | | | | | |
| 1992―1996 | 2.172(1.945~2.442) | < 0.001 | 1.924(1.703~2.165) | < 0.001 | 2.372(2.114~2.676) | < 0.001 |
| 1997―2001 | 1.658(1.545~1.771) | < 0.001 | 1.513(1.407~1.628) | < 0.001 | 1.774(1.655~1.907) | < 0.001 |
| 2002―2006 | 1.358(1.305~1.407) | < 0.001 | 1.402(1.353~1.467) | < 0.001 | 1.282(1.237~1.338) | < 0.001 |
| 2007―2011 | 0.913(0.896~0.947) | < 0.001 | 0.944(0.912~0.968) | < 0.001 | 0.893(0.872~0.924) | < 0.001 |
| 2012―2016 | 0.625(0.586~0.657) | < 0.001 | 0.673(0.635~0.718) | < 0.001 | 0.583(0.552~0.615) | < 0.001 |
| 2017―2021 | 0.521(0.484~0.573) | < 0.001 | 0.582(0.533~0.647) | < 0.001 | 0.498(0.442~0.533) | < 0.001 |
| 出生队列效应/年份Birth cohort effect/year | | | | | | |
| 1907―1911 | 0.254(0.176~0.369) | < 0.001 | 0.312(0.214~0.465) | < 0.001 | 0.214(0.141~0.315) | < 0.001 |
| 1912―1916 | 0.293(0.205~0.433) | < 0.001 | 0.386(0.266~0.563) | < 0.001 | 0.257(0.176~0.373) | < 0.001 |
| 1917―1921 | 0.353(0.245~0.504) | < 0.001 | 0.461(0.324~0.668) | < 0.001 | 0.305(0.217~0.434) | < 0.001 |
| 1922―1926 | 0.416(0.303~0.572) | < 0.001 | 0.542(0.393~0.765) | < 0.001 | 0.358(0.264~0.492) | < 0.001 |
| 1927―1931 | 0.484(0.374~0.642) | < 0.001 | 0.633(0.482~0.847) | < 0.001 | 0.426(0.312~0.554) | 0.001 |
| 1932―1936 | 0.552(0.442~0.695) | < 0.001 | 0.716(0.566~0.894) | < 0.001 | 0.475(0.373~0.607) | < 0.001 |
| 1937―1941 | 0.612(0.513~0.743) | < 0.001 | 0.762(0.623~0.933) | 0.008 | 0.533(0.442~0.657) | < 0.001 |
| 1942―1946 | 0.684(0.584~0.803) | < 0.001 | 0.827(0.694~0.967) | < 0.001 | 0.613(0.542~0.726) | 0.015 |
| 1947―1951 | 0.776(0.686~0.874) | < 0.001 | 0.882(0.783~1.004) | 0.046 | 0.714(0.625~0.802) | < 0.001 |
| 1952―1956 | 0.882(0.813~0.967) | 0.002 | 0.963(0.885~1.056) | 0.356 | 0.846(0.778~0.912) | < 0.001 |
| 1957―1961 | 1.011(0.973~1.062) | 0.614 | 1.052(1.005~1.104) | 0.040 | 1.002(0.951~1.056) | 0.960 |
| 1962―1966 | 1.152(1.113~1.184) | < 0.001 | 1.141(1.102~1.176) | < 0.001 | 1.172(1.134~1.203) | < 0.001 |
| 1967―1971 | 1.284(1.224~1.345) | < 0.001 | 1.217(1.167~1.274) | < 0.001 | 1.342(1.283~1.406) | < 0.001 |
| 1972―1976 | 1.423(1.314~1.533) | < 0.001 | 1.296(1.193~1.407) | < 0.001 | 1.527(1.403~1.657) | < 0.001 |
| 1977―1981 | 1.564(1.388~1.769) | < 0.001 | 1.362(1.201~1.548) | < 0.001 | 1.724(1.511~1.945) | < 0.001 |
| 1982―1986 | 1.698(1.445~1.982) | < 0.001 | 1.434(1.215~1.686) | < 0.001 | 1.903(1.614~2.248) | < 0.001 |
| 1987―1991 | 1.795(1.486~2.188) | < 0.001 | 1.478(1.213~1.807) | < 0.001 | 2.056(1.683~2.501) | < 0.001 |
| 1992―1996 | 1.862(1.487~2.332) | < 0.001 | 1.482(1.173~1.889) | 0.001 | 2.137(1.684~2.709) | < 0.001 |
| 1997―2001 | 1.868(1.424~2.449) | < 0.001 | 1.493(1.102~1.928) | 0.009 | 2.142(1.606~2.818) | < 0.001 |
| 2002―2006 | 1.787(1.302~2.454) | < 0.001 | 1.374(0.993~1.907) | 0.061 | 2.033(1.462~2.815) | < 0.001 |
| 2007―2011 | 1.648(1.155~2.342) | 0.007 | 1.237(0.854~1.776) | 0.270 | 1.844(1.287~2.669) | 0.001 |
| 2012―2016 | 1.423(0.975~2.063) | 0.071 | 1.048(0.705~1.537) | 0.852 | 1.591(1.077~2.343) | 0.021 |
| 2017―2021 | 1.212(0.824~1.786) | 0.333 | 0.873(0.584~1.296) | 0.477 | 1.352(0.914~2.018) | 0.139 |
), ArticleFig(id=1259565992301179833, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=CN, label=表1, caption=
1990―2021年中国感染性腹泻发病率年龄-时期-队列模型分析
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量
Variable | 总人群Total population | 男性Male | 女性Female |
RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value | RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value | RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value |
| 年龄效应/岁Age effect/years |
| 0~＜5 | 2.432(1.762~3.364) | < 0.001 | 3.364(2.415~4.696) | < 0.001 | 2.002(1.432~2.794) | < 0.001 |
| 5~＜10 | 1.503(1.123~2.014) | 0.006 | 2.056(1.525~2.774) | < 0.001 | 1.213(0.904~1.646) | 0.209 |
| 10~＜15 | 0.924(0.717~1.198) | 0.534 | 1.217(0.938~1.571) | 0.155 | 0.764(0.595~0.996) | 0.044 |
| 15~＜20 | 0.613(0.494~0.765) | < 0.001 | 0.752(0.604~0.943) | < 0.001 | 0.547(0.437~0.674) | 0.011 |
| 20~＜25 | 0.497(0.415~0.584) | < 0.001 | 0.563(0.471~0.672) | < 0.001 | 0.459(0.373~0.541) | < 0.001 |
| 25~＜30 | 0.478(0.416~0.543) | < 0.001 | 0.535(0.463~0.618) | < 0.001 | 0.451(0.394~0.513) | < 0.001 |
| 30~＜35 | 0.512(0.467~0.579) | < 0.001 | 0.567(0.502~0.624) | < 0.001 | 0.493(0.442~0.545) | < 0.001 |
| 35~＜40 | 0.573(0.536~0.617) | < 0.001 | 0.608(0.565~0.649) | < 0.001 | 0.556(0.527~0.598) | < 0.001 |
| 40~＜45 | 0.639(0.617~0.659) | < 0.001 | 0.632(0.616~0.658) | < 0.001 | 0.631(0.604~0.657) | < 0.001 |
| 45~＜50 | 0.694(0.677~0.725) | < 0.001 | 0.673(0.644~0.698) | < 0.001 | 0.713(0.685~0.746) | < 0.001 |
| 50~＜55 | 0.776(0.728~0.823) | < 0.001 | 0.711(0.672~0.763) | < 0.001 | 0.812(0.753~0.865) | < 0.001 |
| 55~＜60 | 0.875(0.792~0.961) | 0.007 | 0.777(0.702~0.863) | < 0.001 | 0.943(0.854~1.047) | 0.238 |
| 60~＜65 | 1.023(0.897~1.172) | 0.779 | 0.874(0.766~1.005) | 0.056 | 1.136(0.987~1.308) | 0.092 |
| 65~＜70 | 1.231(1.033~1.462) | 0.023 | 1.016(0.854~1.228) | 0.879 | 1.383(1.155~1.664) | < 0.001 |
| 70~＜75 | 1.484(1.195~1.836) | < 0.001 | 1.195(0.952~1.494) | 0.123 | 1.682(1.344~2.105) | < 0.001 |
| 75~＜80 | 1.802(1.405~2.337) | < 0.001 | 1.434(1.102~1.867) | 0.008 | 2.077(1.593~2.698) | < 0.001 |
| 80~＜85 | 2.337(1.747~3.128) | < 0.001 | 1.844(1.363~2.487) | < 0.001 | 2.715(2.016~3.661) | < 0.001 |
| ≥85 | 3.204(2.316~4.427) | < 0.001 | 2.523(1.812~3.528) | < 0.001 | 3.774(2.705~5.262) | < 0.001 |
| 时期效应/年份Period effect/year | | | | | | |
| 1992―1996 | 2.172(1.945~2.442) | < 0.001 | 1.924(1.703~2.165) | < 0.001 | 2.372(2.114~2.676) | < 0.001 |
| 1997―2001 | 1.658(1.545~1.771) | < 0.001 | 1.513(1.407~1.628) | < 0.001 | 1.774(1.655~1.907) | < 0.001 |
| 2002―2006 | 1.358(1.305~1.407) | < 0.001 | 1.402(1.353~1.467) | < 0.001 | 1.282(1.237~1.338) | < 0.001 |
| 2007―2011 | 0.913(0.896~0.947) | < 0.001 | 0.944(0.912~0.968) | < 0.001 | 0.893(0.872~0.924) | < 0.001 |
| 2012―2016 | 0.625(0.586~0.657) | < 0.001 | 0.673(0.635~0.718) | < 0.001 | 0.583(0.552~0.615) | < 0.001 |
| 2017―2021 | 0.521(0.484~0.573) | < 0.001 | 0.582(0.533~0.647) | < 0.001 | 0.498(0.442~0.533) | < 0.001 |
| 出生队列效应/年份Birth cohort effect/year | | | | | | |
| 1907―1911 | 0.254(0.176~0.369) | < 0.001 | 0.312(0.214~0.465) | < 0.001 | 0.214(0.141~0.315) | < 0.001 |
| 1912―1916 | 0.293(0.205~0.433) | < 0.001 | 0.386(0.266~0.563) | < 0.001 | 0.257(0.176~0.373) | < 0.001 |
| 1917―1921 | 0.353(0.245~0.504) | < 0.001 | 0.461(0.324~0.668) | < 0.001 | 0.305(0.217~0.434) | < 0.001 |
| 1922―1926 | 0.416(0.303~0.572) | < 0.001 | 0.542(0.393~0.765) | < 0.001 | 0.358(0.264~0.492) | < 0.001 |
| 1927―1931 | 0.484(0.374~0.642) | < 0.001 | 0.633(0.482~0.847) | < 0.001 | 0.426(0.312~0.554) | 0.001 |
| 1932―1936 | 0.552(0.442~0.695) | < 0.001 | 0.716(0.566~0.894) | < 0.001 | 0.475(0.373~0.607) | < 0.001 |
| 1937―1941 | 0.612(0.513~0.743) | < 0.001 | 0.762(0.623~0.933) | 0.008 | 0.533(0.442~0.657) | < 0.001 |
| 1942―1946 | 0.684(0.584~0.803) | < 0.001 | 0.827(0.694~0.967) | < 0.001 | 0.613(0.542~0.726) | 0.015 |
| 1947―1951 | 0.776(0.686~0.874) | < 0.001 | 0.882(0.783~1.004) | 0.046 | 0.714(0.625~0.802) | < 0.001 |
| 1952―1956 | 0.882(0.813~0.967) | 0.002 | 0.963(0.885~1.056) | 0.356 | 0.846(0.778~0.912) | < 0.001 |
| 1957―1961 | 1.011(0.973~1.062) | 0.614 | 1.052(1.005~1.104) | 0.040 | 1.002(0.951~1.056) | 0.960 |
| 1962―1966 | 1.152(1.113~1.184) | < 0.001 | 1.141(1.102~1.176) | < 0.001 | 1.172(1.134~1.203) | < 0.001 |
| 1967―1971 | 1.284(1.224~1.345) | < 0.001 | 1.217(1.167~1.274) | < 0.001 | 1.342(1.283~1.406) | < 0.001 |
| 1972―1976 | 1.423(1.314~1.533) | < 0.001 | 1.296(1.193~1.407) | < 0.001 | 1.527(1.403~1.657) | < 0.001 |
| 1977―1981 | 1.564(1.388~1.769) | < 0.001 | 1.362(1.201~1.548) | < 0.001 | 1.724(1.511~1.945) | < 0.001 |
| 1982―1986 | 1.698(1.445~1.982) | < 0.001 | 1.434(1.215~1.686) | < 0.001 | 1.903(1.614~2.248) | < 0.001 |
| 1987―1991 | 1.795(1.486~2.188) | < 0.001 | 1.478(1.213~1.807) | < 0.001 | 2.056(1.683~2.501) | < 0.001 |
| 1992―1996 | 1.862(1.487~2.332) | < 0.001 | 1.482(1.173~1.889) | 0.001 | 2.137(1.684~2.709) | < 0.001 |
| 1997―2001 | 1.868(1.424~2.449) | < 0.001 | 1.493(1.102~1.928) | 0.009 | 2.142(1.606~2.818) | < 0.001 |
| 2002―2006 | 1.787(1.302~2.454) | < 0.001 | 1.374(0.993~1.907) | 0.061 | 2.033(1.462~2.815) | < 0.001 |
| 2007―2011 | 1.648(1.155~2.342) | 0.007 | 1.237(0.854~1.776) | 0.270 | 1.844(1.287~2.669) | 0.001 |
| 2012―2016 | 1.423(0.975~2.063) | 0.071 | 1.048(0.705~1.537) | 0.852 | 1.591(1.077~2.343) | 0.021 |
| 2017―2021 | 1.212(0.824~1.786) | 0.333 | 0.873(0.584~1.296) | 0.477 | 1.352(0.914~2.018) | 0.139 |
), ArticleFig(id=1259565992687055805, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=
Age-period-cohort model analysis of infectious diarrhea mortality in China from 1990 to 2021
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量
Variable | 总人群Total population | 男性Male | 女性Female |
RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value | RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value | RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value |
| 年龄效应/岁Age effect/years |
| 0~＜5 | 3.403(1.974~5.876) | < 0.001 | 3.084(1.815~5.247) | < 0.001 | 4.312(2.433~7.654) | < 0.001 |
| 5~＜10 | 0.262(0.164~0.437) | < 0.001 | 0.263(0.164~0.426) | < 0.001 | 0.292(0.176~0.498) | < 0.001 |
| 10~＜15 | 0.073(0.048~0.116) | < 0.001 | 0.075(0.056~0.118) | < 0.001 | 0.078(0.054~0.123) | < 0.001 |
| 15~＜20 | 0.061(0.052~0.098) | < 0.001 | 0.063(0.045~0.097) | < 0.001 | 0.071(0.057~0.110) | < 0.001 |
| 20~＜25 | 0.095(0.073~0.126) | < 0.001 | 0.094(0.076~0.123) | < 0.001 | 0.095(0.076~0.132) | < 0.001 |
| 25~＜30 | 0.104(0.082~0.125) | < 0.001 | 0.107(0.083~0.138) | < 0.001 | 0.098(0.076~0.122) | < 0.001 |
| 30~＜35 | 0.123(0.104~0.146) | < 0.001 | 0.134(0.116~0.163) | < 0.001 | 0.118(0.098~0.132) | < 0.001 |
| 35~＜40 | 0.207(0.188~0.225) | < 0.001 | 0.215(0.192~0.248) | < 0.001 | 0.176(0.164~0.208) | < 0.001 |
| 40~＜45 | 0.334(0.312~0.353) | < 0.001 | 0.364(0.346~0.385) | < 0.001 | 0.293(0.287~0.317) | < 0.001 |
| 45~＜50 | 0.476(0.445~0.507) | < 0.001 | 0.514(0.485~0.548) | < 0.001 | 0.412(0.387~0.443) | < 0.001 |
| 50~＜55 | 0.682(0.607~0.758) | < 0.001 | 0.713(0.644~0.796) | < 0.001 | 0.603(0.532~0.676) | < 0.001 |
| 55~＜60 | 1.203(1.015~1.426) | 0.037 | 1.215(1.036~1.437) | 0.022 | 1.108(0.921~1.322) | 0.277 |
| 60~＜65 | 2.296(1.822~2.895) | < 0.001 | 2.266(1.813~2.847) | < 0.001 | 2.187(1.710~2.787) | < 0.001 |
| 65~＜70 | 4.113(3.065~5.538) | < 0.001 | 4.005(3.007~5.345) | < 0.001 | 3.987(2.912~5.443) | < 0.001 |
| 70~＜75 | 7.993(5.564~11.497) | < 0.001 | 7.386(5.186~10.520) | < 0.001 | 8.143(5.554~11.943) | < 0.001 |
| 75~＜80 | 19.225(12.516~29.535) | < 0.001 | 16.724(11.006~25.427) | 0.008 | 21.054(13.398~33.107) | < 0.001 |
| 80~＜85 | 51.164(31.365~83.466) | < 0.001 | 45.745(28.384~73.706) | < 0.001 | 56.396(33.687~94.416) | < 0.001 |
| ≥85 | 131.617(76.348~226.913) | < 0.001 | 134.317(78.983~228.406) | < 0.001 | 133.610(75.304~237.087) | < 0.001 |
| 时期效应/年份Period effect/year | | | | | | |
| 1992―1996 | 3.485(3.073~3.955) | < 0.001 | 3.344(2.955~3.786) | < 0.001 | 3.576(3.132~4.087) | < 0.001 |
| 1997―2001 | 3.043(2.714~3.418) | < 0.001 | 2.922(2.612~3.276) | < 0.001 | 3.121(2.765~3.523) | < 0.001 |
| 2002―2006 | 1.113(1.075~1.518) | < 0.001 | 1.104(1.065~1.143) | < 0.001 | 1.124(1.087~1.176) | < 0.001 |
| 2007―2011 | 0.542(0.513~0.576) | < 0.001 | 0.554(0.521~0.587) | < 0.001 | 0.543(0.519~0.576) | < 0.001 |
| 2012―2016 | 0.394(0.366~0.439) | < 0.001 | 0.410(0.376~0.454) | < 0.001 | 0.387(0.354~0.424) | < 0.001 |
| 2017―2021 | 0.273(0.235~0.317) | < 0.001 | 0.283(0.243~0.332) | < 0.001 | 0.265(0.221~0.305) | < 0.001 |
| 出生队列效应/年份Birth cohort effect/year | | | | | | |
| 1907―1911 | 0.144(0.083~0.276) | < 0.001 | 0.165(0.098~0.310) | < 0.001 | 0.143(0.076~0.287) | < 0.001 |
| 1912―1916 | 0.186(0.103~0.348) | < 0.001 | 0.212(0.119~0.387) | < 0.001 | 0.187(0.095~0.354) | < 0.001 |
| 1917―1921 | 0.225(0.122~0.407) | < 0.001 | 0.254(0.145~0.456) | < 0.001 | 0.222(0.121~0.413) | < 0.001 |
| 1922―1926 | 0.277(0.162~0.454) | < 0.001 | 0.303(0.187~0.504) | < 0.001 | 0.265(0.154~0.465) | < 0.001 |
| 1927―1931 | 0.311(0.203~0.508) | < 0.001 | 0.343(0.223~0.543) | < 0.001 | 0.316(0.198~0.504) | < 0.001 |
| 1932―1936 | 0.373(0.254~0.557) | < 0.001 | 0.406(0.276~0.587) | < 0.001 | 0.376(0.254~0.563) | < 0.001 |
| 1937―1941 | 0.444(0.322~0.627) | < 0.001 | 0.465(0.343~0.644) | < 0.001 | 0.454(0.321~0.643) | < 0.001 |
| 1942―1946 | 0.533(0.403~0.696) | < 0.001 | 0.554(0.421~0.712) | < 0.001 | 0.547(0.418~0.722) | < 0.001 |
| 1947―1951 | 0.622(0.513~0.765) | < 0.001 | 0.643(0.523~0.784) | < 0.001 | 0.643(0.514~0.798) | < 0.001 |
| 1952―1956 | 0.731(0.633~0.836) | < 0.001 | 0.745(0.654~0.843) | < 0.001 | 0.743(0.643~0.865) | < 0.001 |
| 1957―1961 | 0.856(0.793~0.925) | < 0.001 | 0.866(0.802~0.929) | < 0.001 | 0.876(0.802~0.943) | < 0.001 |
| 1962―1966 | 1.026(0.974~1.078) | 0.394 | 1.021(0.976~1.065) | 0.477 | 1.032(0.983~1.097) | 0.209 |
| 1967―1971 | 1.235(1.144~1.337) | < 0.001 | 1.221(1.132~1.310) | < 0.001 | 1.232(1.142~1.345) | < 0.001 |
| 1972―1976 | 1.485(1.297~1.698) | < 0.001 | 1.465(1.287~1.676) | < 0.001 | 1.463(1.265~1.687) | < 0.001 |
| 1977―1981 | 1.767(1.434~2.158) | < 0.001 | 1.721(1.410~2.106) | < 0.001 | 1.721(1.394~2.132) | < 0.001 |
| 1982―1986 | 2.075(1.583~2.717) | < 0.001 | 2.003(1.543~2.602) | < 0.001 | 2.034(1.532~2.705) | < 0.001 |
| 1987―1991 | 2.464(1.785~3.416) | < 0.001 | 2.332(1.703~3.201) | < 0.001 | 2.443(1.732~3.443) | < 0.001 |
| 1992―1996 | 2.932(1.997~4.314) | < 0.001 | 2.723(1.874~3.955) | < 0.001 | 2.934(1.956~4.398) | < 0.001 |
| 1997―2001 | 3.384(2.143~5.346) | < 0.001 | 3.098(1.987~4.821) | < 0.001 | 3.383(2.096~5.476) | < 0.001 |
| 2002―2006 | 3.613(2.114~6.167) | < 0.001 | 3.265(1.943~5.504) | < 0.001 | 3.584(2.043~6.302) | < 0.001 |
| 2007―2011 | 3.444(1.893~6.277) | < 0.001 | 3.106(1.732~5.567) | < 0.001 | 3.404(1.815~6.398) | < 0.001 |
| 2012―2016 | 2.888(1.535~5.457) | 0.071 | 2.584(1.395~4.807) | 0.003 | 2.866(1.467~5.593) | 0.002 |
| 2017―2021 | 2.315(1.212~4.428) | 0.011 | 2.054(1.092~3.856) | 0.027 | 2.313(1.174~4.587) | 0.016 |
), ArticleFig(id=1259565993098097601, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=CN, label=表2, caption=
1990―2021年中国感染性腹泻死亡率年龄-时期-队列模型分析
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量
Variable | 总人群Total population | 男性Male | 女性Female |
RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value | RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value | RR值value
(95% CI) | P值
value |
| 年龄效应/岁Age effect/years |
| 0~＜5 | 3.403(1.974~5.876) | < 0.001 | 3.084(1.815~5.247) | < 0.001 | 4.312(2.433~7.654) | < 0.001 |
| 5~＜10 | 0.262(0.164~0.437) | < 0.001 | 0.263(0.164~0.426) | < 0.001 | 0.292(0.176~0.498) | < 0.001 |
| 10~＜15 | 0.073(0.048~0.116) | < 0.001 | 0.075(0.056~0.118) | < 0.001 | 0.078(0.054~0.123) | < 0.001 |
| 15~＜20 | 0.061(0.052~0.098) | < 0.001 | 0.063(0.045~0.097) | < 0.001 | 0.071(0.057~0.110) | < 0.001 |
| 20~＜25 | 0.095(0.073~0.126) | < 0.001 | 0.094(0.076~0.123) | < 0.001 | 0.095(0.076~0.132) | < 0.001 |
| 25~＜30 | 0.104(0.082~0.125) | < 0.001 | 0.107(0.083~0.138) | < 0.001 | 0.098(0.076~0.122) | < 0.001 |
| 30~＜35 | 0.123(0.104~0.146) | < 0.001 | 0.134(0.116~0.163) | < 0.001 | 0.118(0.098~0.132) | < 0.001 |
| 35~＜40 | 0.207(0.188~0.225) | < 0.001 | 0.215(0.192~0.248) | < 0.001 | 0.176(0.164~0.208) | < 0.001 |
| 40~＜45 | 0.334(0.312~0.353) | < 0.001 | 0.364(0.346~0.385) | < 0.001 | 0.293(0.287~0.317) | < 0.001 |
| 45~＜50 | 0.476(0.445~0.507) | < 0.001 | 0.514(0.485~0.548) | < 0.001 | 0.412(0.387~0.443) | < 0.001 |
| 50~＜55 | 0.682(0.607~0.758) | < 0.001 | 0.713(0.644~0.796) | < 0.001 | 0.603(0.532~0.676) | < 0.001 |
| 55~＜60 | 1.203(1.015~1.426) | 0.037 | 1.215(1.036~1.437) | 0.022 | 1.108(0.921~1.322) | 0.277 |
| 60~＜65 | 2.296(1.822~2.895) | < 0.001 | 2.266(1.813~2.847) | < 0.001 | 2.187(1.710~2.787) | < 0.001 |
| 65~＜70 | 4.113(3.065~5.538) | < 0.001 | 4.005(3.007~5.345) | < 0.001 | 3.987(2.912~5.443) | < 0.001 |
| 70~＜75 | 7.993(5.564~11.497) | < 0.001 | 7.386(5.186~10.520) | < 0.001 | 8.143(5.554~11.943) | < 0.001 |
| 75~＜80 | 19.225(12.516~29.535) | < 0.001 | 16.724(11.006~25.427) | 0.008 | 21.054(13.398~33.107) | < 0.001 |
| 80~＜85 | 51.164(31.365~83.466) | < 0.001 | 45.745(28.384~73.706) | < 0.001 | 56.396(33.687~94.416) | < 0.001 |
| ≥85 | 131.617(76.348~226.913) | < 0.001 | 134.317(78.983~228.406) | < 0.001 | 133.610(75.304~237.087) | < 0.001 |
| 时期效应/年份Period effect/year | | | | | | |
| 1992―1996 | 3.485(3.073~3.955) | < 0.001 | 3.344(2.955~3.786) | < 0.001 | 3.576(3.132~4.087) | < 0.001 |
| 1997―2001 | 3.043(2.714~3.418) | < 0.001 | 2.922(2.612~3.276) | < 0.001 | 3.121(2.765~3.523) | < 0.001 |
| 2002―2006 | 1.113(1.075~1.518) | < 0.001 | 1.104(1.065~1.143) | < 0.001 | 1.124(1.087~1.176) | < 0.001 |
| 2007―2011 | 0.542(0.513~0.576) | < 0.001 | 0.554(0.521~0.587) | < 0.001 | 0.543(0.519~0.576) | < 0.001 |
| 2012―2016 | 0.394(0.366~0.439) | < 0.001 | 0.410(0.376~0.454) | < 0.001 | 0.387(0.354~0.424) | < 0.001 |
| 2017―2021 | 0.273(0.235~0.317) | < 0.001 | 0.283(0.243~0.332) | < 0.001 | 0.265(0.221~0.305) | < 0.001 |
| 出生队列效应/年份Birth cohort effect/year | | | | | | |
| 1907―1911 | 0.144(0.083~0.276) | < 0.001 | 0.165(0.098~0.310) | < 0.001 | 0.143(0.076~0.287) | < 0.001 |
| 1912―1916 | 0.186(0.103~0.348) | < 0.001 | 0.212(0.119~0.387) | < 0.001 | 0.187(0.095~0.354) | < 0.001 |
| 1917―1921 | 0.225(0.122~0.407) | < 0.001 | 0.254(0.145~0.456) | < 0.001 | 0.222(0.121~0.413) | < 0.001 |
| 1922―1926 | 0.277(0.162~0.454) | < 0.001 | 0.303(0.187~0.504) | < 0.001 | 0.265(0.154~0.465) | < 0.001 |
| 1927―1931 | 0.311(0.203~0.508) | < 0.001 | 0.343(0.223~0.543) | < 0.001 | 0.316(0.198~0.504) | < 0.001 |
| 1932―1936 | 0.373(0.254~0.557) | < 0.001 | 0.406(0.276~0.587) | < 0.001 | 0.376(0.254~0.563) | < 0.001 |
| 1937―1941 | 0.444(0.322~0.627) | < 0.001 | 0.465(0.343~0.644) | < 0.001 | 0.454(0.321~0.643) | < 0.001 |
| 1942―1946 | 0.533(0.403~0.696) | < 0.001 | 0.554(0.421~0.712) | < 0.001 | 0.547(0.418~0.722) | < 0.001 |
| 1947―1951 | 0.622(0.513~0.765) | < 0.001 | 0.643(0.523~0.784) | < 0.001 | 0.643(0.514~0.798) | < 0.001 |
| 1952―1956 | 0.731(0.633~0.836) | < 0.001 | 0.745(0.654~0.843) | < 0.001 | 0.743(0.643~0.865) | < 0.001 |
| 1957―1961 | 0.856(0.793~0.925) | < 0.001 | 0.866(0.802~0.929) | < 0.001 | 0.876(0.802~0.943) | < 0.001 |
| 1962―1966 | 1.026(0.974~1.078) | 0.394 | 1.021(0.976~1.065) | 0.477 | 1.032(0.983~1.097) | 0.209 |
| 1967―1971 | 1.235(1.144~1.337) | < 0.001 | 1.221(1.132~1.310) | < 0.001 | 1.232(1.142~1.345) | < 0.001 |
| 1972―1976 | 1.485(1.297~1.698) | < 0.001 | 1.465(1.287~1.676) | < 0.001 | 1.463(1.265~1.687) | < 0.001 |
| 1977―1981 | 1.767(1.434~2.158) | < 0.001 | 1.721(1.410~2.106) | < 0.001 | 1.721(1.394~2.132) | < 0.001 |
| 1982―1986 | 2.075(1.583~2.717) | < 0.001 | 2.003(1.543~2.602) | < 0.001 | 2.034(1.532~2.705) | < 0.001 |
| 1987―1991 | 2.464(1.785~3.416) | < 0.001 | 2.332(1.703~3.201) | < 0.001 | 2.443(1.732~3.443) | < 0.001 |
| 1992―1996 | 2.932(1.997~4.314) | < 0.001 | 2.723(1.874~3.955) | < 0.001 | 2.934(1.956~4.398) | < 0.001 |
| 1997―2001 | 3.384(2.143~5.346) | < 0.001 | 3.098(1.987~4.821) | < 0.001 | 3.383(2.096~5.476) | < 0.001 |
| 2002―2006 | 3.613(2.114~6.167) | < 0.001 | 3.265(1.943~5.504) | < 0.001 | 3.584(2.043~6.302) | < 0.001 |
| 2007―2011 | 3.444(1.893~6.277) | < 0.001 | 3.106(1.732~5.567) | < 0.001 | 3.404(1.815~6.398) | < 0.001 |
| 2012―2016 | 2.888(1.535~5.457) | 0.071 | 2.584(1.395~4.807) | 0.003 | 2.866(1.467~5.593) | 0.002 |
| 2017―2021 | 2.315(1.212~4.428) | 0.011 | 2.054(1.092~3.856) | 0.027 | 2.313(1.174~4.587) | 0.016 |
), ArticleFig(id=1259565993504945092, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=
Predicted incidence and mortality rates of infectious diarrhea in China from 2022 to 2026
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份
Year | 发病率Incidence rate/100 000-1 (95% CI) | 死亡率Mortality rate/100 000-1(95% CI) |
| 总人群Total population | 男性Male | 女性Female | 总人群Total population | 男性Male | 女性Female |
| 2022 | 4 922(3 300~7 343) | 5 113(3 522~7 424) | 4 759(3 375~6 810) | 8.290(8.070~8.520) | 9.680(9.460~9.890) | 7.460(7.230~7.700) |
| 2023 | 5 041(2 870~8 854) | 5 218(3 084~8 830) | 4 903(3 060~8 075) | 2.780(2.560 ~3.010) | 3.030(2.810~3.250) | 2.600(2.370~2.840) |
| 2024 | 5 168(2 602~10 264) | 5 363(2 560~8 166) | 5 035(2 904~9 066) | 1.190(0.967~1.420) | 1.280(1.060~1.500) | 1.110(0.881~ 1.350) |
| 2025 | 5 300(2 416~11 626) | 5 499(2 696~8 302) | 5 157(2 818~9 881) | 0.538(0.312~0.764) | 0.585(0.366~0.804) | 0.488(0.255~0.721) |
| 2026 | 5 421(2 297~12 787) | 5 623(2 819~8 426) | 5 268(2 768~10 561) | 0.225(0~0.450) | 0.257(0.038~0.476) | 0.185(0~0.418) |
), ArticleFig(id=1259565993869849546, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1259198908832956435, articleId=1259565965453439741, language=CN, label=表3, caption=
2022―2026年中国感染性腹泻发病率和死亡率预测情况
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份
Year | 发病率Incidence rate/100 000-1 (95% CI) | 死亡率Mortality rate/100 000-1(95% CI) |
| 总人群Total population | 男性Male | 女性Female | 总人群Total population | 男性Male | 女性Female |
| 2022 | 4 922(3 300~7 343) | 5 113(3 522~7 424) | 4 759(3 375~6 810) | 8.290(8.070~8.520) | 9.680(9.460~9.890) | 7.460(7.230~7.700) |
| 2023 | 5 041(2 870~8 854) | 5 218(3 084~8 830) | 4 903(3 060~8 075) | 2.780(2.560 ~3.010) | 3.030(2.810~3.250) | 2.600(2.370~2.840) |
| 2024 | 5 168(2 602~10 264) | 5 363(2 560~8 166) | 5 035(2 904~9 066) | 1.190(0.967~1.420) | 1.280(1.060~1.500) | 1.110(0.881~ 1.350) |
| 2025 | 5 300(2 416~11 626) | 5 499(2 696~8 302) | 5 157(2 818~9 881) | 0.538(0.312~0.764) | 0.585(0.366~0.804) | 0.488(0.255~0.721) |
| 2026 | 5 421(2 297~12 787) | 5 623(2 819~8 426) | 5 268(2 768~10 561) | 0.225(0~0.450) | 0.257(0.038~0.476) | 0.185(0~0.418) |
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