Article(id=1282036050080023113, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282036038860255373, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0497, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1750003200000, receivedDateStr=2025-06-16, revisedDate=1758297600000, revisedDateStr=2025-09-20, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783590813417, onlineDateStr=2026-07-09, pubDate=1764259200000, pubDateStr=2025-11-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783590813417, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783590813417, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783590813417, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1282036038860255373, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='11', pageStart='1', pageEnd='268', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1764259200000', pubDateStr='2025-11-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783590810742, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783593801313, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282048582291276616, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282036038860255373, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282048582295470921, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282036038860255373, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=9, endPage=15, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1282036050247795274, articleId=1282036050080023113, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Determinants and formation path of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters, columnId=1149733271128420907, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety social science and safety management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to explore the formation paths of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters and formulate more effective resettlement policies, five indicators across three dimensions—behavioral attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control—were extracted as antecedent conditions based on the theory of planned behavior. Using questionnaire survey data from 155 farmers in former Caopo township, Sichuan province, a fsQCA was employed to investigate the determinants for farmers' non-migration intention. The results show that household income, agricultural dependence, risk perception, policy satisfaction and subjective norms cannot individually constitute the necessary conditions for non-migration intention. There are three main paths leading to high non-migration intention. The first is "risk indifference", characterized by low risk perception and weak subjective norms. The second is "livelihood constraint", characterized by high agricultural dependence, low household income, and weak subjective norms. The third is "economically secure but unwilling", characterized by high household income, low policy satisfaction, and weak subjective norms.

, authors=Yong CHEN1, 2, Yi ZHANG1, authorsList=Yong CHEN, Yi ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1282036050709168717, articleId=1282036050080023113, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=自然灾害高风险区农户不迁移意愿影响因素与形成路径, columnId=1149733271296193071, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全社会科学与安全管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为探究自然灾害高风险区农户不迁移意愿的形成路径,制定更有效的灾害移民政策,基于计划行为理论,从行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制3个维度,识别家庭收入、农业依赖、灾害风险感知、政策满意度和主观规范5个指标作为前因条件变量;基于汶川县原草坡乡155个农户的问卷调查数据,使用模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)分析农户不迁移意愿的影响因素和组态路径。结果表明:家庭收入、农业依赖、灾害风险感知、政策满意度和主观规范均不能单独构成不迁移意愿的必要条件,引发农户不迁移意愿的路径有3条,分别为风险漠视型、生计束缚型与富而拒迁型。风险漠视型核心条件包括低灾害风险感知和低主观规范;生计束缚型核心条件包括高农业依赖、低家庭收入和低主观规范;富而拒迁型核心条件包括高家庭收入、低政策满意度和低主观规范。

, authors=陈勇教授1, 2, 张翼1, authorsList=陈勇教授, 张翼, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

陈勇(1965—),男,四川宣汉人,博士,教授,主要从事人口、环境与可持续发展方面的研究。E-mail:

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陈勇(1965—),男,四川宣汉人,博士,教授,主要从事人口、环境与可持续发展方面的研究。E-mail:

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陈勇(1965—),男,四川宣汉人,博士,教授,主要从事人口、环境与可持续发展方面的研究。E-mail:

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自然灾害高风险区农户不迁移意愿影响因素与形成路径
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陈勇教授 1, 2 , 张翼 1
中国安全科学学报 | 安全社会科学与安全管理 2025,35(11): 9-15
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中国安全科学学报 |安全社会科学与安全管理 2025 , 35 (11) : 9 -15
自然灾害高风险区农户不迁移意愿影响因素与形成路径
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陈勇教授1, 2 , 张翼1
作者信息
  • 1四川大学 公共管理学院,四川 成都 610065
  • 2四川大学 环境与区域发展研究所,四川 成都 610065
作者简介:

陈勇(1965—),男,四川宣汉人,博士,教授,主要从事人口、环境与可持续发展方面的研究。E-mail:

Determinants and formation path of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters
Yong CHEN1, 2 , Yi ZHANG1
Affiliations
  • 1School of Public Administration, Sichuan University, Chengdu Sichuan 610065, China
  • 2Institute of Environment and Regional Development, Sichuan University, Chengdu Sichuan 610065, China
出版时间: 2025-11-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0497
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为探究自然灾害高风险区农户不迁移意愿的形成路径,制定更有效的灾害移民政策,基于计划行为理论,从行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制3个维度,识别家庭收入、农业依赖、灾害风险感知、政策满意度和主观规范5个指标作为前因条件变量;基于汶川县原草坡乡155个农户的问卷调查数据,使用模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)分析农户不迁移意愿的影响因素和组态路径。结果表明:家庭收入、农业依赖、灾害风险感知、政策满意度和主观规范均不能单独构成不迁移意愿的必要条件,引发农户不迁移意愿的路径有3条,分别为风险漠视型、生计束缚型与富而拒迁型。风险漠视型核心条件包括低灾害风险感知和低主观规范;生计束缚型核心条件包括高农业依赖、低家庭收入和低主观规范;富而拒迁型核心条件包括高家庭收入、低政策满意度和低主观规范。

自然灾害  /  不迁移意愿  /  风险感知  /  避险搬迁  /  模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)

In order to explore the formation paths of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters and formulate more effective resettlement policies, five indicators across three dimensions—behavioral attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control—were extracted as antecedent conditions based on the theory of planned behavior. Using questionnaire survey data from 155 farmers in former Caopo township, Sichuan province, a fsQCA was employed to investigate the determinants for farmers' non-migration intention. The results show that household income, agricultural dependence, risk perception, policy satisfaction and subjective norms cannot individually constitute the necessary conditions for non-migration intention. There are three main paths leading to high non-migration intention. The first is "risk indifference", characterized by low risk perception and weak subjective norms. The second is "livelihood constraint", characterized by high agricultural dependence, low household income, and weak subjective norms. The third is "economically secure but unwilling", characterized by high household income, low policy satisfaction, and weak subjective norms.

natural disasters  /  non-migration intention  /  risk perception  /  preventive resettlement  /  fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA)
陈勇教授, 张翼. 自然灾害高风险区农户不迁移意愿影响因素与形成路径. 中国安全科学学报, 2025 , 35 (11) : 9 -15 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0497
Yong CHEN, Yi ZHANG. Determinants and formation path of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (11) : 9 -15 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0497
  • 四川大学2023中央高校基本科研业务费项目(20827041G4302)
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0497
  • 接收时间:2025-06-16
  • 首发时间:2026-07-09
  • 出版时间:2025-11-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-16
  • 修回日期:2025-09-20
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四川大学2023中央高校基本科研业务费项目(20827041G4302)
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    1四川大学 公共管理学院,四川 成都 610065
    2四川大学 环境与区域发展研究所,四川 成都 610065
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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