Article(id=1282034780145431329, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282034747870253265, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.1068, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1749657600000, receivedDateStr=2025-06-12, revisedDate=1755360000000, revisedDateStr=2025-08-17, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783590510640, onlineDateStr=2026-07-09, pubDate=1761580800000, pubDateStr=2025-10-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783590510640, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783590510640, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783590510640, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1282034747870253265, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='10', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1761580800000', pubDateStr='2025-10-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783590502946, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783593819616, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282048659068006772, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282034747870253265, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282048659068006773, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282034747870253265, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=131, endPage=139, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1282034780363535138, articleId=1282034780145431329, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=A method for assessing probability of high-risk scenarios of CCUS aboveground injection system in oilfields, columnId=1149733269173878863, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety engineering technology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To achieve dynamic risk management and control during the CO₂ injection process in CCUS oilfields and prevent CO₂ leakage acidents, a dynamic assessment method for the probability of high-risk scenarios was proposed. Firstly, a novel improved FPN model was developed by integrating a three-parameter Weibull distribution model for equipment failure probability based on Grey Model (GM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with FPN model. Subsequently, the risk analysis was conducted on the above ground CO₂ injection system of CCUS process. The CO₂ leakage accident chain was established to quantitatively predict the accident occurrence probability. The dynamic characteristic of equipment failure probability changing with time (t) and the impact of protection layers on risk were taken into account by the improved FPN. The results indicate that when t=500 h, the risk exhibits an exponential increase. The safety valve is identified as the protection layer with the highest importance. When t=303 days, the system's residual risk reaches the PetroChina risk acceptance criterion of 1×10^-5, indicating that the system risk becomes unacceptable beyond this point. It is recommended to add a high-high level interlock protection layer, which extends the time until system risk becomes unacceptable to 5 832 days, thereby significantly reducing maintenance frequency and costs.

, authors=Jingjing MU^{1, 2}, Qinglong LIU², Jinshan WANG³, Weichao DUAN², Rentao LIU², Dongfeng ZHAO^{**, 4}, authorsList=Jingjing MU, Qinglong LIU, Jinshan WANG, Weichao DUAN, Rentao LIU, Dongfeng ZHAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Dongfeng ZHAO, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1282034780824908581, articleId=1282034780145431329, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=CCUS油田地上注入系统高风险场景发生概率评估方法, columnId=1149733269727526997, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全工程技术, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为实现CO₂捕集、利用和封存（CCUS）油田CO₂注入过程的动态风险管控，预防CO₂泄漏事故的发生，提出一种高风险场景发生概率动态评估方法。融合基于灰色模型（GM）-支持向量机（SVM）的三参数威布尔设备失效概率数值模型与模糊Petri网（FPN）模型，提出改进后的FPN新模型；再针对CCUS地上CO₂注入系统进行风险分析，创建CO₂泄漏事故链条，定量预测事故发生概率，改进后的FPN新方法考虑设备失效概率随时间t变化这一动态特性及保护层对风险的影响。结果表明：当t = 500 h时，风险呈指数增长；安全阀这一保护层的重要度最高；当t = 303天时，系统残余风险达到中石油风险可接受标准1×10^-5，即在该时间点之后，系统风险变为不可接受；增加液位高高联锁保护层可将系统风险不可接受的时间延长至5 832天，大大减少维修周期和成本。

, authors=穆晶晶^{1, 2}, 刘庆龙², 王金山³, 段潍超², 刘仁涛², 赵东风教授^{**, 4}, authorsList=穆晶晶, 刘庆龙, 王金山, 段潍超, 刘仁涛, 赵东风教授, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=赵东风教授, authorNote=, correspAuthorsNote=, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=jPyrkz7PEghaHx5PnUk6zw==, magXml=bNqmMixWm/3TksrX4Pb5Xg==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=AWysJW9RSr9kHXQLQ/GfCw==, pdfFileSize=2557678, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=igjmkidOH9qoaMdcKZiu6w==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1282034781357585203, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1282034780145431329, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=1097814110@qq.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1282034781428888374, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1282034780145431329, authorId=1282034781357585203, language=EN, stringName=Jingjing MU, firstName=Jingjing, middleName=null, lastName=MU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=^{1, 2}, address=¹College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao Shandong 266580, China
²Qingdao OASIS Environmental & Safety Technology Co., Ltd., Qingdao Shandong 266520, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1282034781495997239, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1282034780145431329, authorId=1282034781357585203, language=CN, stringName=穆晶晶, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=^{1, 2}, address=¹中国石油大学（华东） 机电工程学院，山东 青岛 266580
²青岛欧赛斯环境与安全技术有限责任公司，山东 青岛 266520, bio={"content":"

穆晶晶（2001—），女，山西大同人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为CCUS油田风险分析。E-mail: 1097814110@qq.com。

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穆晶晶（2001—），女，山西大同人，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为CCUS油田风险分析。E-mail: 1097814110@qq.com。

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