Article(id=1282034768481063261, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282034747870253265, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0894, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1748707200000, receivedDateStr=2025-06-01, revisedDate=1755532800000, revisedDateStr=2025-08-19, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783590507860, onlineDateStr=2026-07-09, pubDate=1761580800000, pubDateStr=2025-10-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783590507860, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783590507860, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783590507860, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1282034747870253265, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='10', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1761580800000', pubDateStr='2025-10-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783590502946, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783593819616, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282048659068006772, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282034747870253265, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282048659068006773, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282034747870253265, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=91, endPage=97, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1282034768774664542, articleId=1282034768481063261, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Risk assessment of UAV operation considering risk of mid-air collision, columnId=1149733269173878863, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety engineering technology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To improve the efficiency of UAV air traffic management, ensure flight safety and promote the safe application of UAVs in complex airspace environments, the risk assessment of UAV operation was focused in this paper. Firstly, for UAVs with autonomous perception and decision-making capabilities in unstructured airspace environments, based on key parameters such as airborne communication, navigation and surveillance capabilities, maneuvering characteristics and system response time. A conflict probability model and a collision probability model considering avoidance maneuvering strategies were constructed to quantitatively evaluate the airspace collision risks. Then, considering that UAV collision accidents do not directly cause casualties, a ground risk assessment model was constructed that comprehensively considers UAV aerial collision events and crashes caused by system failures. Finally, taking 1×10-6 deaths/flight hours as the safety target level, the safety separation that needs to be maintained during airborne flights was determined. The results show that considering both the conflict probability and the probability of the conflict escalating into a collision simultaneously can solve the problem of underestimated risks during the free flight stage. The maximum allowable collision risk varies significantly among different operating scenarios.

, authors=Nan LI1, Boyun YAN1, Linshi SUN2, Peng HAN1, Zhigang ZHENG3, Qingyu JIAO3, authorsList=Nan LI, Boyun YAN, Linshi SUN, Peng HAN, Zhigang ZHENG, Qingyu JIAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1282034770670489953, articleId=1282034768481063261, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=考虑空中碰撞风险的UAV运行风险评估, columnId=1149733269727526997, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全工程技术, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为提高无人机(UAV)空中交通管理效率、保障飞行安全以及推动UAV在复杂空域环境中的安全应用,聚焦于UAV运行风险评估。首先,针对非结构化空域环境下具有自主感知与决策能力的UAV,基于机载通信导航监视能力、机动特性及系统响应时间等关键参数,构建冲突概率模型和考虑避让机动策略的碰撞概率模型,量化评估空域碰撞风险;然后,鉴于UAV相撞事故不会直接导致人员伤亡,构建综合考虑UAV空中相撞事件与系统失效引发坠机的地面风险评估模型;最后,以1×10-6死亡人数/飞行小时作为安全目标水平,确定空中飞行所需保持的的安全间隔。结果表明:同时考虑冲突概率和冲突升级为碰撞的概率,可解决自由飞行阶段风险被低估的问题;不同运行场景可容许的碰撞风险最大值有较大差异。

, authors=李楠副教授1, 闫博芸1, 孙廪实2, 韩鹏副教授1, 郑志刚3, 焦庆宇3, authorsList=李楠副教授, 闫博芸, 孙廪实, 韩鹏副教授, 郑志刚, 焦庆宇, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

李楠(1978—),女,辽宁抚顺人,硕士,副教授,主要从事机场运行仿真与优化、无人机运行风险等方面的研究。E-mail:

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李楠(1978—),女,辽宁抚顺人,硕士,副教授,主要从事机场运行仿真与优化、无人机运行风险等方面的研究。E-mail:

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李楠(1978—),女,辽宁抚顺人,硕士,副教授,主要从事机场运行仿真与优化、无人机运行风险等方面的研究。E-mail:

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考虑空中碰撞风险的UAV运行风险评估
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李楠副教授 1 , 闫博芸 1 , 孙廪实 2 , 韩鹏副教授 1 , 郑志刚 3 , 焦庆宇 3
中国安全科学学报 | 安全工程技术 2025,35(10): 91-97
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中国安全科学学报 |安全工程技术 2025 , 35 (10) : 91 -97
考虑空中碰撞风险的UAV运行风险评估
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李楠(1978—),女,辽宁抚顺人,硕士,副教授,主要从事机场运行仿真与优化、无人机运行风险等方面的研究。E-mail:

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李楠副教授1 , 闫博芸1, 孙廪实2, 韩鹏副教授1, 郑志刚3, 焦庆宇3
作者信息
  • 1中国民航大学 空中交通管理学院,天津 300300
  • 2春秋航空股份有限公司 航务部,上海 200335
  • 3中国民航科学技术研究院 民航运行技术研究所,北京 100028
作者简介:

李楠(1978—),女,辽宁抚顺人,硕士,副教授,主要从事机场运行仿真与优化、无人机运行风险等方面的研究。E-mail:

Risk assessment of UAV operation considering risk of mid-air collision
Nan LI1 , Boyun YAN1, Linshi SUN2, Peng HAN1, Zhigang ZHENG3, Qingyu JIAO3
Affiliations
  • 1College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
  • 2Operations Management Center, Spring Airlines Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200335, China
  • 3Institute of Civil Aviation Operation Technology, CAAC Academy of Science and Technology, Beijing 100028, China
出版时间: 2025-10-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0894
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为提高无人机(UAV)空中交通管理效率、保障飞行安全以及推动UAV在复杂空域环境中的安全应用,聚焦于UAV运行风险评估。首先,针对非结构化空域环境下具有自主感知与决策能力的UAV,基于机载通信导航监视能力、机动特性及系统响应时间等关键参数,构建冲突概率模型和考虑避让机动策略的碰撞概率模型,量化评估空域碰撞风险;然后,鉴于UAV相撞事故不会直接导致人员伤亡,构建综合考虑UAV空中相撞事件与系统失效引发坠机的地面风险评估模型;最后,以1×10-6死亡人数/飞行小时作为安全目标水平,确定空中飞行所需保持的的安全间隔。结果表明:同时考虑冲突概率和冲突升级为碰撞的概率,可解决自由飞行阶段风险被低估的问题;不同运行场景可容许的碰撞风险最大值有较大差异。

无人机(UAV)  /  运行风险  /  碰撞风险  /  地面风险  /  安全间隔

To improve the efficiency of UAV air traffic management, ensure flight safety and promote the safe application of UAVs in complex airspace environments, the risk assessment of UAV operation was focused in this paper. Firstly, for UAVs with autonomous perception and decision-making capabilities in unstructured airspace environments, based on key parameters such as airborne communication, navigation and surveillance capabilities, maneuvering characteristics and system response time. A conflict probability model and a collision probability model considering avoidance maneuvering strategies were constructed to quantitatively evaluate the airspace collision risks. Then, considering that UAV collision accidents do not directly cause casualties, a ground risk assessment model was constructed that comprehensively considers UAV aerial collision events and crashes caused by system failures. Finally, taking 1×10-6 deaths/flight hours as the safety target level, the safety separation that needs to be maintained during airborne flights was determined. The results show that considering both the conflict probability and the probability of the conflict escalating into a collision simultaneously can solve the problem of underestimated risks during the free flight stage. The maximum allowable collision risk varies significantly among different operating scenarios.

unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)  /  operation risk  /  collision risk  /  ground risk  /  safety interval
李楠副教授, 闫博芸, 孙廪实, 韩鹏副教授, 郑志刚, 焦庆宇. 考虑空中碰撞风险的UAV运行风险评估. 中国安全科学学报, 2025 , 35 (10) : 91 -97 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0894
Nan LI, Boyun YAN, Linshi SUN, Peng HAN, Zhigang ZHENG, Qingyu JIAO. Risk assessment of UAV operation considering risk of mid-air collision[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (10) : 91 -97 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0894
  • 国家自然科学基金青年基金资助(52102419)
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2025年第35卷第10期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.10.0894
  • 接收时间:2025-06-01
  • 首发时间:2026-07-09
  • 出版时间:2025-10-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-01
  • 修回日期:2025-08-19
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助(52102419)
作者信息
    1中国民航大学 空中交通管理学院,天津 300300
    2春秋航空股份有限公司 航务部,上海 200335
    3中国民航科学技术研究院 民航运行技术研究所,北京 100028
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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