Article(id=1282032556811989779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282032292440805784, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.0510, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1743609600000, receivedDateStr=2025-04-03, revisedDate=1749484800000, revisedDateStr=2025-06-10, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783589980557, onlineDateStr=2026-07-09, pubDate=1758988800000, pubDateStr=2025-09-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783589980557, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783589980557, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783589980557, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1282032292440805784, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='9', pageStart='1', pageEnd='268', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1758988800000', pubDateStr='2025-09-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783589917526, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783593837820, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282048735404344166, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282032292440805784, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282048735404344167, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1282032292440805784, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=176, endPage=184, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1282032560624612116, articleId=1282032556811989779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Reliability assessment model of natural gas pipeline line system under multiple failure modes, columnId=1149733269173878863, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety engineering technology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to ensure the safe operation of gas pipeline networks and to enable the overall reliability assessment of pipeline systems, a three-level reliability evaluation model "component-segment-pipeline network" was proposed for natural gas pipeline networks. First, the state equations of steel pipe and weld units under different failure modes were established by analyzing the composition of the pipe network line system. Combined with the Monte Carlo algorithm, the failure probability under different failure modes was calculated. Based on fault tree analysis and the minimal cut set theory, a "component-segment" level reliability model was developed, enabling the hierarchical reliability evaluation from components to pipeline segments. Next, the GO method was applied to analyze the topological structure of the pipeline network, and a structural reliability model at "segment-pipeline networ" level was established. The structural reliability of the entire pipeline network was calculated and weak segments in terms of reliability were identified rapidly. Finally, a case study was conducted to verify the accuracy and applicability of the proposed model. The results show that the reliability of pipeline network systems is positively correlated with pipe material strength and wall thickness, and negatively correlated with the diameter-to-thickness ratio and internal pressure. Compared to high-grade pipelines represented by X80, networks composed of lower-grade pipelines exhibit higher sensitivity to external factors, with their reliability being more significantly affected by external disturbances.

, authors=Houjia XU^{1, 2}, Jian SHUAI^{1, 2}, Yuntao LI^{**, 1, 2}, Xu YAN¹, Xingtao LI³, Bingcai SUN⁴, authorsList=Houjia XU, Jian SHUAI, Yuntao LI, Xu YAN, Xingtao LI, Bingcai SUN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Yuntao LI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1282032565645194005, articleId=1282032556811989779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=多失效模式下天然气管网线路系统可靠性评估模型, columnId=1149733269727526997, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全工程技术, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为保障管网安全运行，全面量化评价天然气管网线路的系统可靠性，提出“单元-管段-管网”3个层级的天然气管网线路系统可靠性评估模型。首先，通过分析管网线路系统组成，建立钢管、焊缝单元在不同失效模式下的状态方程，结合蒙特卡罗算法，计算不同失效模式下的失效概率。基于事故树和最小次序理论构建“单元-管段”层级的可靠性模型，实现“单元-管段”层级的可靠性计算。其次，运用GO法分析管网线路拓扑结构，构建“管段-管网”层级的结构可靠性模型，计算整个管网线路系统的结构可靠性，快速定位可靠性薄弱的管段。最后，结合某管网实例验证该模型的准确性和适用性。结果表明：管网线路系统的可靠性与管材强度和壁厚呈正相关，与径厚比及内压呈负相关；相较于以X80为代表的高钢级管道，低钢级管道构成的管网系统对外部因素具有更高敏感性，其可靠性受外部扰动的影响程度更为显著。

, authors=徐后佳^{1, 2}, 帅健教授^{1, 2}, 李云涛教授^{**, 1, 2}, 闫序¹, 李兴涛高级工程师³, 孙秉才高级工程师⁴, authorsList=徐后佳, 帅健教授, 李云涛教授, 闫序, 李兴涛高级工程师, 孙秉才高级工程师, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=李云涛教授, authorNote=, correspAuthorsNote=, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=CLMP12RqBy/V39VJlZXWGQ==, magXml=J7xLnKPFbJdGJCQ+AL4GOQ==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=Df4zv6qxiD2Mu8oRVX7kng==, pdfFileSize=4609370, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=j6cocZ6mJMAYyyo8eYTdYw==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1282032573547262757, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1282032556811989779, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=xuhj3020@163.com, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1282032575392756520, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1282032556811989779, authorId=1282032573547262757, language=EN, stringName=Houjia XU, firstName=Houjia, middleName=null, lastName=XU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=^{1, 2}, address=¹College of Safety and Ocean Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
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²中国石油大学（北京） 油气生产安全与应急技术应急管理部重点实验室，北京 102249, bio={"content":"

徐后佳（1996—），男，安徽池州人，博士研究生，主要研究方向为油气生产安全。E-mail: xuhj3020@163.com。

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徐后佳（1996—），男，安徽池州人，博士研究生，主要研究方向为油气生产安全。E-mail: xuhj3020@163.com。

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