Article(id=1281685574985683337, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281685530169545672, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0906, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1739030400000, receivedDateStr=2025-02-09, revisedDate=1745683200000, revisedDateStr=2025-04-27, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783507253642, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1751040000000, pubDateStr=2025-06-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783507253642, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783507253642, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783507253642, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281685530169545672, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='6', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1751040000000', pubDateStr='2025-06-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783507242958, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783589309504, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282029742274622413, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281685530169545672, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282029742274622414, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281685530169545672, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=157, endPage=164, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281685575367365003, articleId=1281685574985683337, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Risk assessment method of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation, columnId=1149733270084042840, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Public safety, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to comprehensively assess the risk of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation, a systematic risk assessment method combining theoretical derivation and simulation experiments was proposed. Firstly, the urban air-ground traffic network structure was constructed. Considering the dynamics of UAVs and ground vehicles, as well as the traffic flow characteristics of the air-ground traffic network, theoretical derivation was used to determine the possible ground traffic risk interval. Secondly, Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to obtain the ground traffic risk value based on the statistical results of the test. Then, the theoretical analysis and simulation test analysis were combined to comprehensively evaluate the risk of UAVs falling to ground traffic. Finally, a simulation case study was carried out in Tianjin. The results show that the risk of UAVs falling on ground traffic is affected by several factors such as crash probability, ground traffic density, and the structure of the air road network. The statistical risk value of the simulation test is consistent with the theoretical analysis of the risk interval, which preliminarily verifies the reasonableness of the proposed method.

, authors=Hang LI, Feng HAN, Xiaobing HU**, authorsList=Hang LI, Feng HAN, Xiaobing HU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xiaobing HU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281685575891653006, articleId=1281685574985683337, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=城市无人机坠落对地面交通的风险评估方法, columnId=1149733271510106222, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=公共安全, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为全面评估城市无人机(UAV)坠落对于地面交通的风险,提出一种“理论分析+仿真试验”的系统风险评估方法。首先,构建城市空-地交通网络结构,考虑无人机与地面车辆的动态性,以及空-地交通网络的流量特征,运用理论推导,得出可能的地面交通风险区间;其次,开展蒙特卡罗仿真试验,得到基于试验统计结果的地面交通风险值;然后,将理论分析与仿真试验分析相结合,综合评估无人机坠落对地面交通的风险;最后,以天津市为例开展仿真案例研究。结果表明:无人机坠落对地面交通的风险受坠机概率、地面交通密度、空中路网结构等多个因素影响;仿真试验的统计风险值与理论分析风险区间相符,初步验证了所提方法的合理性。

, authors=李航讲师, 韩凤, 胡小兵教授**, authorsList=李航讲师, 韩凤, 胡小兵教授, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=胡小兵教授, authorNote=

李航(1989—),男,陕西岐山人,博士,讲师,主要从事复杂系统安全韧性、民航应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=
** 胡小兵(1975—),男,四川攀枝花人,博士,教授,主要从事复杂系统安全和风险、智能计算、空中交通管理等方面的研究。E-mail:
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李航(1989—),男,陕西岐山人,博士,讲师,主要从事复杂系统安全韧性、民航应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

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李航(1989—),男,陕西岐山人,博士,讲师,主要从事复杂系统安全韧性、民航应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

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城市无人机坠落对地面交通的风险评估方法
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李航讲师 , 韩凤 , 胡小兵教授 **
中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全 2025,35(6): 157-164
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中国安全科学学报 |公共安全 2025 , 35 (6) : 157 -164
城市无人机坠落对地面交通的风险评估方法
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李航讲师 , 韩凤, 胡小兵教授**
作者信息
  • 中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院,天津 300300
通讯作者:
** 胡小兵(1975—),男,四川攀枝花人,博士,教授,主要从事复杂系统安全和风险、智能计算、空中交通管理等方面的研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

李航(1989—),男,陕西岐山人,博士,讲师,主要从事复杂系统安全韧性、民航应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

Risk assessment method of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation
Hang LI , Feng HAN, Xiaobing HU**
Affiliations
  • College of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
出版时间: 2025-06-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0906
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为全面评估城市无人机(UAV)坠落对于地面交通的风险,提出一种“理论分析+仿真试验”的系统风险评估方法。首先,构建城市空-地交通网络结构,考虑无人机与地面车辆的动态性,以及空-地交通网络的流量特征,运用理论推导,得出可能的地面交通风险区间;其次,开展蒙特卡罗仿真试验,得到基于试验统计结果的地面交通风险值;然后,将理论分析与仿真试验分析相结合,综合评估无人机坠落对地面交通的风险;最后,以天津市为例开展仿真案例研究。结果表明:无人机坠落对地面交通的风险受坠机概率、地面交通密度、空中路网结构等多个因素影响;仿真试验的统计风险值与理论分析风险区间相符,初步验证了所提方法的合理性。

无人机(UAV)坠落  /  地面交通  /  风险评估  /  风险区间  /  蒙特卡罗仿真

In order to comprehensively assess the risk of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation, a systematic risk assessment method combining theoretical derivation and simulation experiments was proposed. Firstly, the urban air-ground traffic network structure was constructed. Considering the dynamics of UAVs and ground vehicles, as well as the traffic flow characteristics of the air-ground traffic network, theoretical derivation was used to determine the possible ground traffic risk interval. Secondly, Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to obtain the ground traffic risk value based on the statistical results of the test. Then, the theoretical analysis and simulation test analysis were combined to comprehensively evaluate the risk of UAVs falling to ground traffic. Finally, a simulation case study was carried out in Tianjin. The results show that the risk of UAVs falling on ground traffic is affected by several factors such as crash probability, ground traffic density, and the structure of the air road network. The statistical risk value of the simulation test is consistent with the theoretical analysis of the risk interval, which preliminarily verifies the reasonableness of the proposed method.

unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) falls  /  ground traffic  /  risk assessment  /  risk interval  /  Monte Carlo simulation
李航讲师, 韩凤, 胡小兵教授. 城市无人机坠落对地面交通的风险评估方法. 中国安全科学学报, 2025 , 35 (6) : 157 -164 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0906
Hang LI, Feng HAN, Xiaobing HU. Risk assessment method of urban UAVs falling onto ground transportation[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (6) : 157 -164 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0906
  • 天津市自然科学基金多元投入青年项目资助(23JCQNJC00230)
  • 民航安全能力建设项目(HA202511)
  • 研究生科研创新项目(2023YJSKC09013)
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.0906
  • 接收时间:2025-02-09
  • 首发时间:2026-07-08
  • 出版时间:2025-06-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-09
  • 修回日期:2025-04-27
基金
天津市自然科学基金多元投入青年项目资助(23JCQNJC00230)
民航安全能力建设项目(HA202511)
研究生科研创新项目(2023YJSKC09013)
作者信息
    中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院,天津 300300

通讯作者:

** 胡小兵(1975—),男,四川攀枝花人,博士,教授,主要从事复杂系统安全和风险、智能计算、空中交通管理等方面的研究。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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Number of
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Percentage of
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种数
Number of
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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