Article(id=1281608180815860514, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608117335068953, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1209, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1759161600000, receivedDateStr=2025-09-30, revisedDate=1764864000000, revisedDateStr=2025-12-05, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783488801435, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1774627200000, pubDateStr=2026-03-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783488801435, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783488801435, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783488801435, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281608117335068953, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2026', volume='36', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='270', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1774627200000', pubDateStr='2026-03-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783488786300, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783588670896, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282027063758533259, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608117335068953, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282027063758533260, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608117335068953, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=121, endPage=129, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281608181008798499, articleId=1281608180815860514, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Linking landslide deformation to triggering factors via isotonic constraints of displacement measurements, columnId=1277328337617941059, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety Technology and Engineering, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To accurately identify landslide deformation characteristics and triggering factors from monitoring data containing excessive noise, this study proposed a noise-reduction method for displacement monitoring data based on isotonic regression. It further established correlation rules linking deformation in different subzones to multi-level hydrometeorological conditions, incorporating time-lag effects. Using the Zhakoushi landslide in Fengjie County, Chongqing as a case study, displacement monitoring data before and after isotonic regression processing were comparatively analyzed to preliminarily investigate deformation patterns at different locations. The time delays between displacement at each monitoring station and rainfall and elevation of reservoir water level were calculated, enabling the extraction of association rules between deformation in these subzones and hydrometeorological factors, thus clarifying long-term deformation characteristics and its triggering mechanism of the landslide. The results demonstrate that the isotonic regression algorithm effectively removes non-physical noise while preserving intrinsic deformation information, considerably enhancing data quality. The landslide movements exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, with the front part experiencing the most extensive deformation controlled jointly by reservoir drawdown and rainfall, followed by the rear part influenced by topography-enhanced rainfall recharge. The synergistic effect of rapid drawdown of reservoir water (>0.5 m/d) and intense rainfall (>30 mm/d), which generate an outward-directed seepage force and reduce matrix suction, is the primary triggering mechanism for the landslide.

, authors=Xiao YE1, 2, Linxuan SHEN2, Yiqiang YU3, Xiaoyu CHEN2, Wei ZHAN**, 3, Honghu ZHU4, authorsList=Xiao YE, Linxuan SHEN, Yiqiang YU, Xiaoyu CHEN, Wei ZHAN, Honghu ZHU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Wei ZHAN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281608181554058022, articleId=1281608180815860514, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=基于保序回归的滑坡变形与诱发因素关联分析, columnId=1277328337940902469, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全技术与工程, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为精准判识包含大量噪声数据的滑坡变形特征及诱发因素,提出一种基于保序回归的位移监测数据降噪处理方法,构建考虑时间滞后效应下不同分区变形与多级水文气象条件的关联规则。以重庆市奉节县渣口石滑坡为例,对比分析保序回归处理前后的位移监测数据,初步探讨不同位置的滑坡变形特征,计算各监测点位移相对降雨量与库水位高程的滞后时间,挖掘不同分区的滑坡变形与水文气象因子关联规则,明确该滑坡的长期变形特征及其诱发因素。结果表明:保序回归算法能够有效剔除非物理噪声、保留本征信号,显著提升数据质量;渣口石滑坡变形呈现显著空间异质性,前缘受库水下降与降雨共同控制变形最大,后缘受地形增强的降雨补给影响次之;库水位骤降(>0.5 m/d)与强降雨(>30 mm/d)协同作用,产生指向坡外的渗透力并削弱基质吸力,是该滑坡失稳的主要触发机制。

, authors=叶霄副教授1, 2, 沈琳轩2, 余以强高级工程师3, 陈笑予2, 詹伟教授级高级工程师**, 3, 朱鸿鹄教授4, authorsList=叶霄副教授, 沈琳轩, 余以强高级工程师, 陈笑予, 詹伟教授级高级工程师, 朱鸿鹄教授, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=詹伟教授级高级工程师, authorNote=

叶霄(1993—),男,江苏南京人,博士,副教授,主要从事滑坡灾变演化机理与智能感知预警、极端气候工程地质界面效应等方面的研究。E-mail:

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** 詹伟(1983—),男,浙江杭州人,博士,教授级高级工程师,主要从事边坡灾害监测预警技术等方面的研究。E-mail:
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叶霄(1993—),男,江苏南京人,博士,副教授,主要从事滑坡灾变演化机理与智能感知预警、极端气候工程地质界面效应等方面的研究。E-mail:

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叶霄(1993—),男,江苏南京人,博士,副教授,主要从事滑坡灾变演化机理与智能感知预警、极端气候工程地质界面效应等方面的研究。E-mail:

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基于保序回归的滑坡变形与诱发因素关联分析
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叶霄副教授 1, 2 , 沈琳轩 2 , 余以强高级工程师 3 , 陈笑予 2 , 詹伟教授级高级工程师 **, 3 , 朱鸿鹄教授 4
中国安全科学学报 | 安全技术与工程 2026,36(3): 121-129
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中国安全科学学报 |安全技术与工程 2026 , 36 (3) : 121 -129
基于保序回归的滑坡变形与诱发因素关联分析
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叶霄(1993—),男,江苏南京人,博士,副教授,主要从事滑坡灾变演化机理与智能感知预警、极端气候工程地质界面效应等方面的研究。E-mail:

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叶霄(1993—),男,江苏南京人,博士,副教授,主要从事滑坡灾变演化机理与智能感知预警、极端气候工程地质界面效应等方面的研究。E-mail:

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叶霄副教授1, 2 , 沈琳轩2, 余以强高级工程师3, 陈笑予2, 詹伟教授级高级工程师**, 3 , 朱鸿鹄教授4
作者信息
  • 1南京信息工程大学 公共安全治理研究院,江苏 南京 210044
  • 2南京信息工程大学 应急管理学院,江苏 南京 210044
  • 3浙江省交通运输科学研究院 浙江省道桥检测与养护技术研究重点实验室,浙江 杭州 310023
  • 4南京大学 地球工程与科学学院,江苏 南京 210023
通讯作者:
** 詹伟(1983—),男,浙江杭州人,博士,教授级高级工程师,主要从事边坡灾害监测预警技术等方面的研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

叶霄(1993—),男,江苏南京人,博士,副教授,主要从事滑坡灾变演化机理与智能感知预警、极端气候工程地质界面效应等方面的研究。E-mail:

Linking landslide deformation to triggering factors via isotonic constraints of displacement measurements
Xiao YE1, 2 , Linxuan SHEN2, Yiqiang YU3, Xiaoyu CHEN2, Wei ZHAN**, 3 , Honghu ZHU4
Affiliations
  • 1Institute of Public Safety Governance, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210044, China
  • 2School of Emergency Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing Jiangsu 210044, China
  • 3Key Laboratory of Road and Bridge Detection and Maintenance Technology in Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang Scientific Research Institute of Transport, Hangzhou Zhejiang 310023, China
  • 4School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210023, China
出版时间: 2026-03-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1209
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为精准判识包含大量噪声数据的滑坡变形特征及诱发因素,提出一种基于保序回归的位移监测数据降噪处理方法,构建考虑时间滞后效应下不同分区变形与多级水文气象条件的关联规则。以重庆市奉节县渣口石滑坡为例,对比分析保序回归处理前后的位移监测数据,初步探讨不同位置的滑坡变形特征,计算各监测点位移相对降雨量与库水位高程的滞后时间,挖掘不同分区的滑坡变形与水文气象因子关联规则,明确该滑坡的长期变形特征及其诱发因素。结果表明:保序回归算法能够有效剔除非物理噪声、保留本征信号,显著提升数据质量;渣口石滑坡变形呈现显著空间异质性,前缘受库水下降与降雨共同控制变形最大,后缘受地形增强的降雨补给影响次之;库水位骤降(>0.5 m/d)与强降雨(>30 mm/d)协同作用,产生指向坡外的渗透力并削弱基质吸力,是该滑坡失稳的主要触发机制。

全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)位移  /  保序回归  /  滑坡变形  /  诱发因素  /  关联分析

To accurately identify landslide deformation characteristics and triggering factors from monitoring data containing excessive noise, this study proposed a noise-reduction method for displacement monitoring data based on isotonic regression. It further established correlation rules linking deformation in different subzones to multi-level hydrometeorological conditions, incorporating time-lag effects. Using the Zhakoushi landslide in Fengjie County, Chongqing as a case study, displacement monitoring data before and after isotonic regression processing were comparatively analyzed to preliminarily investigate deformation patterns at different locations. The time delays between displacement at each monitoring station and rainfall and elevation of reservoir water level were calculated, enabling the extraction of association rules between deformation in these subzones and hydrometeorological factors, thus clarifying long-term deformation characteristics and its triggering mechanism of the landslide. The results demonstrate that the isotonic regression algorithm effectively removes non-physical noise while preserving intrinsic deformation information, considerably enhancing data quality. The landslide movements exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, with the front part experiencing the most extensive deformation controlled jointly by reservoir drawdown and rainfall, followed by the rear part influenced by topography-enhanced rainfall recharge. The synergistic effect of rapid drawdown of reservoir water (>0.5 m/d) and intense rainfall (>30 mm/d), which generate an outward-directed seepage force and reduce matrix suction, is the primary triggering mechanism for the landslide.

global navigation satellite system (GNSS) displacement  /  isotonic regression  /  landslide deformation  /  triggering factor  /  association analysis
叶霄副教授, 沈琳轩, 余以强高级工程师, 陈笑予, 詹伟教授级高级工程师, 朱鸿鹄教授. 基于保序回归的滑坡变形与诱发因素关联分析. 中国安全科学学报, 2026 , 36 (3) : 121 -129 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1209
Xiao YE, Linxuan SHEN, Yiqiang YU, Xiaoyu CHEN, Wei ZHAN, Honghu ZHU. Linking landslide deformation to triggering factors via isotonic constraints of displacement measurements[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (3) : 121 -129 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1209
  • 国家自然科学基金资助(42507243)
  • 浙江省道桥检测与养护技术研究重点实验室开放基金资助(202501Z)
  • 南京信息工程大学人才启动经费项目(2025r064)
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1209
  • 接收时间:2025-09-30
  • 首发时间:2026-07-08
  • 出版时间:2026-03-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-30
  • 修回日期:2025-12-05
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(42507243)
浙江省道桥检测与养护技术研究重点实验室开放基金资助(202501Z)
南京信息工程大学人才启动经费项目(2025r064)
作者信息
    1南京信息工程大学 公共安全治理研究院,江苏 南京 210044
    2南京信息工程大学 应急管理学院,江苏 南京 210044
    3浙江省交通运输科学研究院 浙江省道桥检测与养护技术研究重点实验室,浙江 杭州 310023
    4南京大学 地球工程与科学学院,江苏 南京 210023

通讯作者:

** 詹伟(1983—),男,浙江杭州人,博士,教授级高级工程师,主要从事边坡灾害监测预警技术等方面的研究。E-mail:
参考文献
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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