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Article(id=1151591710061638169, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1151591705854751239, articleNumber=1003-3033(2024)05-0214-09, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1435, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1700409600000, receivedDateStr=2023-11-20, revisedDate=1708704000000, revisedDateStr=2024-02-24, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752490459217, onlineDateStr=2025-07-14, pubDate=1716825600000, pubDateStr=2024-05-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752490459217, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-14, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752490459217, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752490459217, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1151591705854751239, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2024', volume='34', issue='5', pageStart='1', pageEnd='251', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752490458214, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1757398693384, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1172178336315985942, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1151591705854751239, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1172178336315985943, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1151591705854751239, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=214, endPage=222, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1151591710451708442, articleId=1151591710061638169, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Identification of risk factors for through-village highway accidents considering influence of township fairs, columnId=1149733270084042840, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal(CSSJ), columnName=Public safety, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to improve traffic safety in the coupling area of the township fair and through-village highway，a secondary road through villages and towns in Yunnan Province was taken as the research object. The core area and the radiation area of the fair were defined according to the affordable travel distance of the township residents and the maximum trading radius of the fair. On this basis，29 risk factors in 6 dimensions of people，vehicles，roads，environment，management and accident form were selected. The risk factor identification model based on association rules was used to construct the risk factor network of highway accidents through villages and towns. By analyzing the characteristics of network topology，accident risk factors were identified. The results show that the traffic conflict in the core area of the fair is more serious，and the probability of injury accidents is 57.99 %. The core area of the township fair is the primary risk factor for accidents and plays a leading role in the spread of accident risks. The types of direct risk factors for property loss accidents and injury accidents are heterogeneous. Overall，the average clustering coefficient of driver factors is the largest，which makes it easy to produce a chain reaction. In the core area of the fair，the probability of injury accidents increases by 23.71% and 21.07%，respectively，when the driver's meeting vehicles are improper，and the driver does not give way according to the regulations.

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为了改善乡镇集市与穿村镇公路耦合区域的交通安全，以云南省某二级公路穿村镇路段为研究对象，依据乡镇居民可承受出行距离与集市最大交易半径，界定集市核心区与集市辐射区，选取人、车、路、环境、管理及事故形态6个维度的29个风险因素，采用基于关联规则的风险因素辨识模型构建穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络，分析网络拓扑结构特征获取事故关键风险因素。结果表明：集日穿村镇公路事故时空集聚特征显著，且集市核心区交通冲突更为严重，伤人事故概率为57.99%，是事故的主要风险因素，对事故风险传播具有主导作用；直穿村镇路段交通标志缺失与缓坡路段会车不当分别是财产损失事故与伤人事故的直接风险因素；整体上，驾驶员因素平均聚类系数最大，易产生连锁反应，在集市核心区涉及驾驶员会车不当和未按规定让行时，伤人事故概率分别增加23.71%和21.07%。

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戢晓峰 (1982—)，男，湖北随州人，博士，教授，主要从事交通安全、交通规划等方面的研究。E-mail：。

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戢晓峰 (1982—)，男，湖北随州人，博士，教授，主要从事交通安全、交通规划等方面的研究。E-mail：。

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戢晓峰 (1982—)，男，湖北随州人，博士，教授，主要从事交通安全、交通规划等方面的研究。E-mail：。

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Safety Science, 2017, 93: 50-61., articleTitle=A new approach to understand metro operation safety by exploring metro operation hazard network (MOHN), refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1172490897011917732, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=20, issue=2, pageStart=74, pageEnd=80, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[16], rfOrder=23, authorNames=任翠萍, 杨明翔, 张裕铭, journalName=复杂系统与复杂性科学, refType=null, unstructuredReference=任翠萍, 杨明翔, 张裕铭, 等. 快递安全事故致因网络构建及结构特性分析[J]. 复杂系统与复杂性科学, 2023, 20(2): 74-80., articleTitle=快递安全事故致因网络构建及结构特性分析, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1172490897141941158, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=20, issue=2, pageStart=74, pageEnd=80, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[16], rfOrder=24, authorNames=REN Cuiping, YANG Mingxiang, ZHANG Yuming, journalName=Complex Systems and Complexity Science, refType=null, unstructuredReference=REN Cuiping, YANG Mingxiang, ZHANG Yuming, et al. The construction of express safety accident causation network and its structural properties[J]. 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label=Fig.7, caption=Risk factors above average node degree, figureFileSmall=eGDgWMTsQsXplMRloRGUOg==, figureFileBig=ob/0+BbdHKyEXSqJ4yZmpA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172490893341901648, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=CN, label=图7, caption=高于平均节点度的风险因素, figureFileSmall=eGDgWMTsQsXplMRloRGUOg==, figureFileBig=ob/0+BbdHKyEXSqJ4yZmpA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172490893476119378, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=EN, label=Fig.8, caption=Average shortest distance from different types of risk factors to the severity of accidents, figureFileSmall=i1fUmpcn9UAGc1Vdd/ch6w==, figureFileBig=KK9ogIUyr/VCeIdU8hEUFw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172490893555811157, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=CN, label=图8, caption=不同类型风险因素到事故严重程度的平均最短距离, 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figureFileBig=+ZD2VvH9pMNChpQNQzyK/Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172490893845218143, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=CN, label=图10, caption=单一风险因素聚类系数, figureFileSmall=mDXjjX9DTRE1s33HTepKuA==, figureFileBig=+ZD2VvH9pMNChpQNQzyK/Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172490893912327009, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Basic information of townships on case highway

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
乡镇 集市日期 集市中心 集市最大交
易半径/km
共和镇 周二、周四、
周六		 新南路与南
大街交叉口		 15(山区镇级
集市)
戌街乡 周二、周五 戌街线与019
乡道交叉口		 5(山区乡
级集市)
元马镇 周四、周日 翠芸街与凤翔
街交叉口		 15(山区镇级
集市)
), ArticleFig(id=1172490893996213091, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

案例公路乡镇基本信息

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
乡镇 集市日期 集市中心 集市最大交
易半径/km
共和镇 周二、周四、
周六		 新南路与南
大街交叉口		 15(山区镇级
集市)
戌街乡 周二、周五 戌街线与019
乡道交叉口		 5(山区乡
级集市)
元马镇 周四、周日 翠芸街与凤翔
街交叉口		 15(山区镇级
集市)
), ArticleFig(id=1172490894101070692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Severity classification of traffic accidents on through-village highway

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
事故严重
程度		 编号 划分标准 事故占
比/%
财产损失
事故		 S1 仅有财产损失，死亡人数
和受伤人数均为 0		 44.53
伤人事故 S2 死亡人数为0且受伤
人数≥1		 55.47
), ArticleFig(id=1172490894201733990, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

穿村镇公路交通事故严重程度划分

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
事故严重
程度		 编号 划分标准 事故占
比/%
财产损失
事故		 S1 仅有财产损失，死亡人数
和受伤人数均为 0		 44.53
伤人事故 S2 死亡人数为0且受伤
人数≥1		 55.47
), ArticleFig(id=1172490894377894760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Risk factors for traffic accidents on through-village highway

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
风险因素分类 风险因素名称 风险因
素编号		 风险因素
占比/%		 风险因素解释
驾驶员因素D 会车不当 D1 20.65 驾驶员操作不当
超车不当 D2 8.91
未按规定让行 D3 20.24 驾驶员安全意识淡薄
未按规定车道行驶 D4 18.22
未保持安全距离 D5 31.98
车辆因素V 肇事车辆信息 客车 V1 61.13 肇事车辆的车辆类型以及车辆归属地
摩托车 V2 23.49
货车 V3 15.38
本地车辆 V4 79.35
过境车辆 V5 20.65
涉事车辆信息 无防护车辆 V6 54.66 事故中是否有无防护车辆参与
(电动车、三轮车、自行车等)
道路因素R 平面线形 平直道 R1 30.25 (平曲线半径为0且平曲线长度为0)
小半径急弯/m R2 23.57 (125<平曲线半径≤550
且0<平曲线长度≤500)
普通弯道/m R3 18.79 (550<平曲线半径≤3 300且
500<平曲线长度≤1 000)
纵断面线形 缓坡/% R4 22.61 0.5<坡度≤3
陡坡/% R5 4.78 3<坡度≤6
环境因素E 事发时间信息 (0:00，6:00] E1 1.62 事故发生的具体时段
(6:00，12:00] E2 28.34
(12:00，18:00] E3 46.96
(18:00，24:00] E4 23.08
事发空间信息 直穿村镇路段 E5 49.78 公路从村镇中直接穿过
绕行村镇路段 E6 50.22 公路到村镇的距离为10~184 m
集市核心区 E7 77.73 事发地距镇级集市中心5 km以内
或乡级集市中心2 km以内
集市辐射区 E8 22.27 事发地距镇级集市中心5~15 km或乡级
集市中心2~5 km
管理因素M 交通标志缺失 M1 25.51 无明显交通标线与警告标志
安全监管不足 M2 16.59 无监控设施，存在路侧摆摊、
停车占道等横向干扰
事故形态A 碰撞 A1 68.02 事故发生后的最终形态
追尾 A2 21.86
刮擦行人 A3 10.12
), ArticleFig(id=1172490894545666922, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

穿村镇公路交通事故风险因素集

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
风险因素分类 风险因素名称 风险因
素编号		 风险因素
占比/%		 风险因素解释
驾驶员因素D 会车不当 D1 20.65 驾驶员操作不当
超车不当 D2 8.91
未按规定让行 D3 20.24 驾驶员安全意识淡薄
未按规定车道行驶 D4 18.22
未保持安全距离 D5 31.98
车辆因素V 肇事车辆信息 客车 V1 61.13 肇事车辆的车辆类型以及车辆归属地
摩托车 V2 23.49
货车 V3 15.38
本地车辆 V4 79.35
过境车辆 V5 20.65
涉事车辆信息 无防护车辆 V6 54.66 事故中是否有无防护车辆参与
(电动车、三轮车、自行车等)
道路因素R 平面线形 平直道 R1 30.25 (平曲线半径为0且平曲线长度为0)
小半径急弯/m R2 23.57 (125<平曲线半径≤550
且0<平曲线长度≤500)
普通弯道/m R3 18.79 (550<平曲线半径≤3 300且
500<平曲线长度≤1 000)
纵断面线形 缓坡/% R4 22.61 0.5<坡度≤3
陡坡/% R5 4.78 3<坡度≤6
环境因素E 事发时间信息 (0:00，6:00] E1 1.62 事故发生的具体时段
(6:00，12:00] E2 28.34
(12:00，18:00] E3 46.96
(18:00，24:00] E4 23.08
事发空间信息 直穿村镇路段 E5 49.78 公路从村镇中直接穿过
绕行村镇路段 E6 50.22 公路到村镇的距离为10~184 m
集市核心区 E7 77.73 事发地距镇级集市中心5 km以内
或乡级集市中心2 km以内
集市辐射区 E8 22.27 事发地距镇级集市中心5~15 km或乡级
集市中心2~5 km
管理因素M 交通标志缺失 M1 25.51 无明显交通标线与警告标志
安全监管不足 M2 16.59 无监控设施，存在路侧摆摊、
停车占道等横向干扰
事故形态A 碰撞 A1 68.02 事故发生后的最终形态
追尾 A2 21.86
刮擦行人 A3 10.12
), ArticleFig(id=1172490894726021996, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Risk factors in the top 5 of the lifts

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
排名 前项 后项 支持度 置信度 提升度
1 R3，E5 E8 0.14 0.57 5.04
2 R3，S1 E8 0.13 0.45 3.98
3 M1 E8 0.11 0.82 3.22
4 D5 A2 0.32 0.68 3.09
5 D3，S2 V2 0.14 0.47 2.19
), ArticleFig(id=1172490894784742253, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

提升度排名前5的风险因素

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
排名 前项 后项 支持度 置信度 提升度
1 R3，E5 E8 0.14 0.57 5.04
2 R3，S1 E8 0.13 0.45 3.98
3 M1 E8 0.11 0.82 3.22
4 D5 A2 0.32 0.68 3.09
5 D3，S2 V2 0.14 0.47 2.19
), ArticleFig(id=1172490894843462511, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1151591710061638169, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Risk factors related to accident severity

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
编号 前项 后项 支持度 置信度 提升度
1 E8 S1 0.11 0.64 1.44
2 E7 S2 0.89 0.58 1.05
3 E7，D1 S2 0.19 0.72 1.29
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考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故风险因素辨识
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戢晓峰 1, 2 , 李金 1, 2 , 卢梦媛 1, 2 , 韩春阳 1, 2 , 覃文文 1, 2
中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全 2024,34(5): 214-222
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中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全 2024, 34(5): 214-222
考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故风险因素辨识
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戢晓峰1, 2 , 李金1, 2, 卢梦媛1, 2, 韩春阳1, 2, 覃文文1, 2
作者信息
  • 1 昆明理工大学 交通工程学院，云南 昆明 650500
  • 2 云南省现代物流工程研究中心，云南 昆明 650500

    • 戢晓峰 (1982—)，男，湖北随州人，博士，教授，主要从事交通安全、交通规划等方面的研究。E-mail：。

Identification of risk factors for through-village highway accidents considering influence of township fairs
Xiaofeng JI1, 2 , Jin LI1, 2, Mengyuan LU1, 2, Chunyang HAN1, 2, Wenwen QIN1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1 Faculty of Transportation Engineering，Kunming University of Science and Technology，Kunming Yunnan 650500，China
  • 2 Yunnan Modern Logistics Engineering Research Center，Kunming Yunnan 650500，China
出版时间: 2024-05-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1435
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摘要
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为了改善乡镇集市与穿村镇公路耦合区域的交通安全，以云南省某二级公路穿村镇路段为研究对象，依据乡镇居民可承受出行距离与集市最大交易半径，界定集市核心区与集市辐射区，选取人、车、路、环境、管理及事故形态6个维度的29个风险因素，采用基于关联规则的风险因素辨识模型构建穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络，分析网络拓扑结构特征获取事故关键风险因素。结果表明：集日穿村镇公路事故时空集聚特征显著，且集市核心区交通冲突更为严重，伤人事故概率为57.99%，是事故的主要风险因素，对事故风险传播具有主导作用；直穿村镇路段交通标志缺失与缓坡路段会车不当分别是财产损失事故与伤人事故的直接风险因素；整体上，驾驶员因素平均聚类系数最大，易产生连锁反应，在集市核心区涉及驾驶员会车不当和未按规定让行时，伤人事故概率分别增加23.71%和21.07%。

穿村镇公路事故  /  乡镇集市  /  集市影响范围  /  风险因素  /  辨识模型

In order to improve traffic safety in the coupling area of the township fair and through-village highway，a secondary road through villages and towns in Yunnan Province was taken as the research object. The core area and the radiation area of the fair were defined according to the affordable travel distance of the township residents and the maximum trading radius of the fair. On this basis，29 risk factors in 6 dimensions of people，vehicles，roads，environment，management and accident form were selected. The risk factor identification model based on association rules was used to construct the risk factor network of highway accidents through villages and towns. By analyzing the characteristics of network topology，accident risk factors were identified. The results show that the traffic conflict in the core area of the fair is more serious，and the probability of injury accidents is 57.99 %. The core area of the township fair is the primary risk factor for accidents and plays a leading role in the spread of accident risks. The types of direct risk factors for property loss accidents and injury accidents are heterogeneous. Overall，the average clustering coefficient of driver factors is the largest，which makes it easy to produce a chain reaction. In the core area of the fair，the probability of injury accidents increases by 23.71% and 21.07%，respectively，when the driver's meeting vehicles are improper，and the driver does not give way according to the regulations.

through-village highway accident  /  township fairs  /  influence scope of fairs  /  risk factors  /  identification model
戢晓峰, 李金, 卢梦媛, 韩春阳, 覃文文. 考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故风险因素辨识. 中国安全科学学报, 2024 , 34 (5) : 214 -222 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1435
Xiaofeng JI, Jin LI, Mengyuan LU, Chunyang HAN, Wenwen QIN. Identification of risk factors for through-village highway accidents considering influence of township fairs[J]. China Safety Science Journal(CSSJ), 2024 , 34 (5) : 214 -222 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1435
正文
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0 引言
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随着乡村振兴战略持续推进，我国农村流通体系建设不断加快，截至2022年底，我国(不含港澳台地区)穿村镇公路总里程达147.27万km，大量集市以穿村镇公路为经济纽带发展迅速，带来了交通秩序紊乱、交通冲突严重等问题。据统计，乡镇集日发生的交通事故占总事故量的60%以上，且穿村镇公路的交通事故率比普通路段高13.1%，涉及摩托车的事故率更是比普通路段高出32.4%。因此，乡镇集市与穿村镇公路耦合区域存在较严重的交通安全隐患，考虑乡镇集市影响辨识穿村镇公路事故风险因素，成为亟待解决的现实问题。
近年来，穿村镇公路交通安全问题逐步受到广泛关注。学者们分别从穿村镇公路的警告标志[1]、车速管控[2]、道路标线[3]等道路安全设施方面开展研究。但由于高速过境车辆与村镇居民日常出行的低速车辆混行严重，仍有45.7%以上的交通事故发生在穿村镇公路。因此，学者逐渐将视角转向穿村镇公路交通流特性研究与事故风险分析。交通流特性方面，研究集中于穿村镇公路货车[4]、摩托车[5]及过境车辆[6]的事故特征，并对会车[7]、行人过街[8]等行为进行解析。事故风险方面，戢晓峰等[9]发现，道路绕行村镇大于100 m与机耕道耦合风险最大。此外，研究发现，穿村镇公路的行人与摩托车等弱势群体混行不仅会增加碰撞事故的概率，同时会增加伤亡事故的风险[10-11]。调研发现，随着城镇化进程加快，乡镇集市与穿村镇公路的耦合范围不断扩大，但现有研究忽略了穿村镇公路沿途乡镇特有的集市活动对事故风险的影响，考虑乡镇居民出行特征与穿村镇公路多因素耦合对事故风险影响的研究较为鲜见。
鉴于此，聚焦乡镇集市与穿村镇公路耦合的风险场景，将集市核心区和集市辐射区作为事故风险因素，构建基于关联规则的风险因素辨识模型，以期为穿村镇公路交通事故治理提供依据。
1 穿村镇公路事故风险场景描述
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云南省某二级公路全长86.9 km，主要经过24个村镇，穿村镇公路累计长度21.65 km，占路段长度的24.91%。以该二级公路穿村镇路段作为研究对象，选取3个典型乡镇，探究集市对穿村镇公路事故风险的影响，其基本信息见表1。
集市影响范围取决于乡镇居民可承受出行距离与交易需求，研究表明：乡镇居民一般以中短距离出行为主，出行距离为10 km以内的比例达75%[12]，随着交通条件的不断改善，集市影响范围呈现逐渐扩大的趋势。因此，以集市最大交易半径所作圆形区域作为集市影响范围的边界[13]，以集市中心为圆心，乡镇居民可承受出行距离10 km为直径的圆形区域作为核心影响区域，在考虑乡镇空间位置、人口密度及分布特征基础上，界定集市核心区与集市辐射区，如图1所示。
1) 集市核心区。从集市中心向外扩散的圆形辐射区域。其中，乡级集市核心区辐射半径为2 km，镇级集市核心区辐射半径为5 km。
2) 集市辐射区。从集市核心区向外扩散的环形辐射区域。其中，乡级集市辐射区辐射环宽为3 km，镇级集市辐射区辐射环宽为10 km。
2 穿村镇公路事故数据处理
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2.1 穿村镇公路事故数据提取
获取云南省某二级公路穿村镇路段交通事故数据共653条，依据乡镇集市日期、集市影响范围及事发地距村镇的距离，提取出共和镇、戌街乡及元马镇集市影响下的穿村镇公路事故数据247条，穿村镇路段集日与平日事故时段分布情况如图2所示。
1) 图2a中，集日事故具有明显的时间集聚性，呈早中晚“三峰”特征。早市时段，集日事故比平日提前1h达到峰值，并在(10:00，12:00]存在2h事故持续高峰；13:00以后随着午市的开始，事故占比随时间呈递增趋势，并在午市结束后的返程高峰(17:00，18:00]达全天事故峰值，事故占比为10.93%。
2) 对比平日与集日事故占比大于6%的时段事故车型(图2b、图2c)，集日摩托车事故较平日增长44.5个百分点、客车事故较平日下降40.5个百分点，集日事故具有较强的车型指向性。
2.2 风险评价指标选取
1) 事故严重程度划分。根据公安部发布的《交通事故统计暂行规定》，我国按每起事故的伤亡人数及财产损失，将事故严重程度划分为死亡、重伤、轻伤和财产损失事故4类。文中结合数据实际情况，将穿村镇公路交通事故严重程度划分为财产损失事故和伤人事故2类，见表2。
2) 事故风险因素提取。从人、车、路、环境、管理及事故形态6个维度进行综合考量，考虑到乡镇集市影响下的交通流组成和穿村镇公路的特殊性，将集市核心区与集市辐射区作为事故风险因素，并将公路穿村镇类型划分为直穿村镇和绕行村镇两类，最终确定29个穿村镇公路交通事故风险因素[6，9]，见表3。
3 基于关联规则的风险因素辨识模型
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3.1 风险因素辨识模型构建
集成Apriori关联规则挖掘算法和复杂网络理论，构建基于关联规则的风险因素辨识模型识别事故关键风险因素，具体流程如图3所示。
3.2 风险因素辨识模型评价指标
Apriori算法中衡量关联规则强度的指标主要有支持度、置信度和提升度。风险因素网络的拓扑结构评价指标包括度与度分布、网络直径与平均路径长度、聚类系数等。
4 穿村镇公路实例分析
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4.1 穿村镇公路事故风险因素关联规则挖掘
以提取出的247起考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故为例，设定支持度≥10%，置信度≥40%，提升度≥1，最大前项数为2，利用Apriori算法进行关联规则挖掘[14]。经迭代计算后得到113条一项集规则和820条二项集规则，其分布情况如图4所示。随着前项事故风险因素数量的增加，项集数量呈爆炸式增长，表明考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故是多因素耦合导致的结果。
4.2 穿村镇公路事故风险因素关联规则分析
从关联规则评价指标和事故发生概率2个维度，探究考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故特征，分析乡镇集市对穿村镇公路事故的影响机制。
1) {集市核心区}→{平直道}的规则支持度最高，为0.89，说明在集市核心区平直道上发生的交通事故量基数大。{集市辐射区}→{直穿村镇路段}的规则置信度最高，为0.93，说明在集市影响下，集市辐射区93%的交通事故发生在公路直穿村镇路段。提升度>1的强关联规则数量占全部关联规则数量的61.34%，绝大多数事故风险因素之间存在紧密联系，此处列举了提升度排名前5的风险因素，见表4。
2) 筛选前项包含集市核心区或辐射区，后项仅为财产损失事故或伤人事故的关联规则，分析事故发生概率。集市辐射区与财产损失事故具有强关联关系，集市辐射区内发生财产损失事故的概率为64.29%。每逢集日，集市核心区内的人群聚集密度远超平日，导致集市核心区内交通秩序紊乱，交通冲突问题更为严重，发生伤人事故的概率为57.99%。此外，伤人事故与驾驶员因素密切相关，在集市核心区，当涉及驾驶员会车不当和未按规定让行时，伤人事故的概率分别增加23.71%和21.07%，与事故严重程度相关的风险因素见表5。
4.3 穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络分析
4.3.1 网络构建
基于关联规则得到188个节点及其关联关系，构建穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络。重点讨论网络节点之间的关联关系。将穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络简化为无向网络，该网络包含188个节点和933条边，其中，节点类型包括单一风险因素节点和复合风险因素节点，边的权重为各风险因素之间关联规则的提升度，提升度的大小在风险因素网络中体现为边的粗细，如图5所示。
4.3.2 网络社团划分
利用复杂网络分析软件Pajek中的Louvain算法，对穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络进行社团划分，结果如图6所示。该网络具有明显的社团结构，且财产损失事故与伤人事故的风险因素具有显著差异。
1) 财产损失事故主要是由于驾驶员未保持安全距离发生追尾所致，肇事车辆通常为客车，事故高发区域为集市辐射区内无明显交通标线与警告标志的直穿村镇路段。
2) 伤人事故主要是由于驾驶员会车不当发生碰撞所致，事故车辆组成普遍为摩托车及无防护车辆，事故高发区域为集市核心区内安全监管不足的绕行村镇路段。
3) 在集市辐射范围内，货车易发生财产损失事故，但在小半径急弯与缓坡组合的危险路段，货车一旦发生交通事故极易升级为伤人事故。同时，小半径急弯与缓坡路段也是造成伤人事故的重要道路风险因素，故在乡镇集市与穿村镇公路耦合区域的危险路段应设置防护设施与警示标牌，最大限度降低伤人事故的概率。
4.3.3 网络拓扑特征分析
1) 节点的度。穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络的累计度分布服从y=1.29x-0.64的幂律分布(R2=0.795)，平均度值为9.92，高于平均度的风险因素如图7所示。低于平均度的风险因素比例高达90.12%，说明该网络是无标度网络[15]。集市核心区的度值为100，是整个网络的Hub点，对事故风险传播具有主导作用。
根据无标度网络特性可知：考虑乡镇集市影响的穿村镇公路事故具有面对随机攻击的鲁棒性和蓄意攻击的脆弱性，有针对性触发度值较高的风险因素更易诱发事故。因此，有效管控集市核心区内的交通秩序，能切断更多风险因素间的相互联系及事故致因链的形成过程，极大程度降低乡镇集市影响下的穿村镇公路交通事故发生率。
2) 网络直径与平均路径长度。穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络的直径为5，即至多需要5条边就可以连接网络中任意2个因素；该网络的平均路径长度为2.21，即该网络中的因素平均3步之内就可以与另一个因素产生较强的联系。
计算不同类型风险因素到事故严重程度的平均最短距离及各风险因素到事故严重程度的最短距离，结果如图8与图9所示。据图8分析可知：除管理因素外，不同类型风险因素到S2的平均最短距离均小于到S1的平均最短距离，显然，管理因素与财产损失事故的关联性更为显著，也表明集日穿村镇公路更容易诱发伤人事故。此外，从不同事故严重程度的风险因素类型来看，财产损失事故与伤人事故的风险因素类型具有异质性。管理因素和环境因素到S1的距离更短，即财产损失事故受管理与环境因素的影响更大，其中交通标志缺失与直穿村镇路段在S1的风险因素网络中传播更快，是导致财产损失事故的直接风险因素；驾驶员因素和道路因素到S2的距离更短，即伤人事故与驾驶员行为和道路条件密切相关，会车不当与缓坡在S2的风险因素网络中传播更快，是导致伤人事故的直接风险因素。
3) 聚类系数。穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络的平均聚类系数为0.596，风险因素聚集程度较高。与其规模和平均度相同的随机网络平均路径长度L约为2.281(L~lnN/ln K -)，其中，N为网络节点数量； K ¯为网络平均度值。聚类系数C约为0.053(C~ K -/N)[16]。与随机网络相比，穿村镇公路事故风险因素网络具有较大聚类系数和较小平均路径长度，表明其具有小世界网络特性，风险扩散速度快且易产生连锁效应。该网络单一风险因素的聚类系数如图10所示。其中，未按规定让行、摩托车与集市辐射区的聚类系数均超过0.5，表明与其相连的风险因素间联系紧密，且对相连风险因素间的相互作用更为敏感，易受其他风险因素影响而处于危险状态。
通过进一步分析可知：人、车、路、环境、管理和事故形态6类因素的平均聚类系数分别为0.453、0.251、0.247、0.157、0.21和0.152。整体上看，驾驶员因素相对于其他5类风险因素平均聚类系数更大，与其直接相连的风险因素间存在紧密联系，一旦驾驶员出现操作不当，极易出现连锁性反应导致事故发生，从而严重威胁乡镇集市参与者的生命财产安全。
4.4 事故防控对策及建议
1) 驾驶员行为方面。乡镇集市的参与者以驾驶摩托车、三轮车等无防护车辆的农村中老年人居多且受教育水平不足，70.44%的驾驶员因安全意识淡薄违反交通法规致使事故发生。此外，会车不当是导致伤人事故的关键风险因素。因此，交管部门应加强对农村中老年驾驶员是否采取防护措施的检查力度。
2) 客观因素方面。集市核心区事故占比高达77.73%且集日返程高峰时段(10:00，12:00]、(16:00，18:00]的事故占比接近40%，集日事故具有明显的时空集聚特征。因此，交管部门应在集日事故高峰时段加强维护集市核心区内的交通秩序。
3) 组织管理方面。集市辐射区82.4%的直穿村镇路段无明显交通标线与警告标志，且村道、机耕道等接入口多，交通流运行环境复杂致使财产损失事故频发。此外，集市核心区缺乏监管路段“以街代市、以路代集”现象较为突出，严重干扰行车安全。因此，需要在接入口多、交通干扰严重的路段前35 m设置警告标志并设置20 m的纵向减速标线或立面标记提高驾驶员警觉[2]，同时，规划集市交易区域，从而降低过境交通流与本地居民混行的冲突风险。
5 结论
收起
1) 集日穿村镇公路事故时空集聚特征显著，返程时段存在持续事故高峰，且集市核心区内的交通冲突更为严重，伤人事故概率为57.99%，是穿村镇公路事故的主要风险因素，对事故风险传播具有主导作用。
2) 驾驶员未按规定让行、摩托车和集市辐射区易受其他风险因素影响处于危险状态，是穿村镇公路事故的潜在风险因素。整体上，驾驶员因素平均聚类系数最大，易产生连锁反应，在集市核心区涉及驾驶员会车不当和未按规定让行时，伤人事故概率分别增加23.71%和21.07%。
3) 财产损失事故与伤人事故的直接风险因素存在异质性，集市辐射区与财产损失事故的关联性显著，事故率为64.29%。有针对性地管控不同事故严重程度的直接风险因素，可有效改善乡镇集市与穿村镇公路耦合区域的交通安全。
基金
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  • 国家自然科学基金资助(52062024)
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2024年第34卷第5期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.05.1435
  • 接收时间：2023-11-20
  • 首发时间：2025-07-14
  • 出版时间：2024-05-28
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  • 收稿日期：2023-11-20
  • 修回日期：2024-02-24
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(52062024)
作者信息
    1 昆明理工大学 交通工程学院，云南 昆明 650500
    2 云南省现代物流工程研究中心，云南 昆明 650500
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