Article(id=1149738959292511048, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738954913661267, articleNumber=1003-3033(2024)04-0217-09, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1534, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1697644800000, receivedDateStr=2023-10-19, revisedDate=1705939200000, revisedDateStr=2024-01-23, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752048729012, onlineDateStr=2025-07-09, pubDate=1714233600000, pubDateStr=2024-04-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752048729012, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752048729012, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752048729012, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1149738954913661267, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2024', volume='34', issue='4', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752048727968, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1756468927830, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1168278616925286857, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738954913661267, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1168278616925286858, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738954913661267, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=217, endPage=225, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149738959544169294, articleId=1149738959292511048, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Improved social force model considering information transmission mechanism, columnId=1149733268699918866, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Emergency technology and management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to investigate the pedestrian evacuation selection strategy in a multi-exit room with unknown exit opening status and to assess the effect of information transfer on movement status and evacuation efficiency during evacuation,an exit-finding SFM based on the information transfer mechanism was proposed. Firstly,A competition mechanism has been introduced into the social force model to improve the simulation's accuracy in reflecting real-life evacuation scenarios. The study then examined the evacuation process guided by rational and irrational strategies to investigate the impact of the herd effect triggered by information change on the overall evacuation. Finally,this paper introduces the information transfer mechanism to investigate the optimization effect of information exchange and cooperation on the escape path. The results indicate that the rational strategy is more robust for individual pedestrians in an emergency escape situation. However,from the perspective of group behavior,an optimal distribution of group strategies exists. Specifically,when approximately 25% of pedestrians choose the rational strategy,and the remaining 75% choose the irrational strategy,the evacuation effect of the whole group can reach its optimal effect. The introduction of the information transfer mechanism enables escaping pedestrians to effectively obtain critical escape information from the surrounding crowd,thus significantly improving evacuation efficiency. The facilitating effect of this mechanism is particularly evident in scenarios with fewer available exits.

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为探究多出口房间内出口开放状态未知情况下行人疏散选择策略,并评估信息传递对疏散过程中运动状态和疏散效率的影响,提出基于信息传递机制的出口寻踪社会力模型(SFM)。首先,在SFM中引入竞争机制,使模型仿真效果更加符合实际疏散场景;然后,研究理性策略与非理性策略引导下的疏散过程,探讨信息变更引发的羊群效应对整体疏散的影响;最后,引入信息传递机制,探索信息交流与合作对逃生路径的优化作用。结果表明:在紧急逃生情境中,对于个体行人而言,理性策略更为稳妥;但从群体行为学角度来看,存在一个最优群体策略分布,即当大约25%的行人选择理性策略,而剩余75%的行人选择非理性策略时,整个群体的疏散效果可以达到最优;通过引入信息传递机制,逃生行人能够有效地从周围人群中获得关键逃生信息,从而显著提高疏散效率。该机制的促进作用对实际开放出口较少的场景尤为明显。

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李昆 (1981—),男,江苏镇江人,博士,讲师,主要从事智慧交通、应急疏散、复杂系统动力学、深度学习、演化博弈理论学等方面的研究。E-mail:

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李昆 (1981—),男,江苏镇江人,博士,讲师,主要从事智慧交通、应急疏散、复杂系统动力学、深度学习、演化博弈理论学等方面的研究。E-mail:

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李昆 (1981—),男,江苏镇江人,博士,讲师,主要从事智慧交通、应急疏散、复杂系统动力学、深度学习、演化博弈理论学等方面的研究。E-mail:

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Fire Safety Science, 2003, 12(1):40-45., articleTitle=Personal evacuate time prediction in a building Fire, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1168151074906058887, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738959292511048, awardId=2023SNKJ-05, language=CN, fundingSource=室内空间布局优化与安全保障四川省高校重点实验室2023年度项目(2023SNKJ-05), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1168151071689027661, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738959292511048, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1168151071697416270, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738959292511048, companyId=1168151071689027661, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 School of Civil and Transportation,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1168151071705804879, tenantId=1146029695717560320, 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考虑信息传递机制的改进社会力模型
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李昆 1, 2 , 丁景轩 1 , 李姣姣 1
中国安全科学学报 | 应急技术与管理 2024,34(4): 217-225
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中国安全科学学报 | 应急技术与管理 2024, 34(4): 217-225
考虑信息传递机制的改进社会力模型
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李昆1, 2 , 丁景轩1, 李姣姣1
作者信息
  • 1 河北工业大学 土木与交通学院,天津 300401
  • 2 成都师范学院 室内空间布局优化与安全保障四川省高校重点实验室,四川 成都 611130
  • 李昆 (1981—),男,江苏镇江人,博士,讲师,主要从事智慧交通、应急疏散、复杂系统动力学、深度学习、演化博弈理论学等方面的研究。E-mail:

Improved social force model considering information transmission mechanism
Kun LI1, 2 , Jingxuan DING1, Jiaojiao LI1
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Civil and Transportation,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China
  • 2 Key Laboratory of Interior Layout Optimization and Security,Institutions of Higher Education of Sichuan Province,Chengdu Normal University,Chengdu Sichuan 611130,China
出版时间: 2024-04-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1534
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为探究多出口房间内出口开放状态未知情况下行人疏散选择策略,并评估信息传递对疏散过程中运动状态和疏散效率的影响,提出基于信息传递机制的出口寻踪社会力模型(SFM)。首先,在SFM中引入竞争机制,使模型仿真效果更加符合实际疏散场景;然后,研究理性策略与非理性策略引导下的疏散过程,探讨信息变更引发的羊群效应对整体疏散的影响;最后,引入信息传递机制,探索信息交流与合作对逃生路径的优化作用。结果表明:在紧急逃生情境中,对于个体行人而言,理性策略更为稳妥;但从群体行为学角度来看,存在一个最优群体策略分布,即当大约25%的行人选择理性策略,而剩余75%的行人选择非理性策略时,整个群体的疏散效果可以达到最优;通过引入信息传递机制,逃生行人能够有效地从周围人群中获得关键逃生信息,从而显著提高疏散效率。该机制的促进作用对实际开放出口较少的场景尤为明显。

信息传输机制  /  社会力模型(SFM)  /  理性策略  /  非理性策略  /  疏散过程

In order to investigate the pedestrian evacuation selection strategy in a multi-exit room with unknown exit opening status and to assess the effect of information transfer on movement status and evacuation efficiency during evacuation,an exit-finding SFM based on the information transfer mechanism was proposed. Firstly,A competition mechanism has been introduced into the social force model to improve the simulation's accuracy in reflecting real-life evacuation scenarios. The study then examined the evacuation process guided by rational and irrational strategies to investigate the impact of the herd effect triggered by information change on the overall evacuation. Finally,this paper introduces the information transfer mechanism to investigate the optimization effect of information exchange and cooperation on the escape path. The results indicate that the rational strategy is more robust for individual pedestrians in an emergency escape situation. However,from the perspective of group behavior,an optimal distribution of group strategies exists. Specifically,when approximately 25% of pedestrians choose the rational strategy,and the remaining 75% choose the irrational strategy,the evacuation effect of the whole group can reach its optimal effect. The introduction of the information transfer mechanism enables escaping pedestrians to effectively obtain critical escape information from the surrounding crowd,thus significantly improving evacuation efficiency. The facilitating effect of this mechanism is particularly evident in scenarios with fewer available exits.

information transfer mechanisms  /  social force model(SFM)  /  rational strategy  /  irrational strategy  /  emergency evacuation process
李昆, 丁景轩, 李姣姣. 考虑信息传递机制的改进社会力模型. 中国安全科学学报, 2024 , 34 (4) : 217 -225 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1534
Kun LI, Jingxuan DING, Jiaojiao LI. Improved social force model considering information transmission mechanism[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (4) : 217 -225 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1534
地震、火灾等灾难性事故和体育赛事、宗教朝圣等人为踩踏事件的发生,使得紧急疏散动力学受到越来越多的关注与讨论[1]。鉴于事故具有不可重复性,研究人员针对性地提出了多种疏散模型。这些模型可以复现多种场景下的疏散行为,使行人动力学研究更加灵活方便,疏散过程直观可视可重复。
微观模型可以还原个体的行为特点及个体间的交互作用,具有广阔的应用前景。典型微观模型包括社会力模型(Social Force Model,SFM)[2-3]、元胞自动机模型[4-5]、智能体模型[6-7]和基于排队网络模型[8]。其中,SFM是微观连续模型的典型代表。其基于牛顿第二定律,精妙地表达了行人在运动中的心理作用和物理交互,常用于模拟各种疏散场景。LI Kun等[9]发现,成组行为在疏散中普遍存在,并将群体建模引入SFM中,发现疏散效率受到群体的影响。YUAN Zhilu等[10]研究了群组形成的原因,并引入反映行人跟随行为的引力模型。MA Yi等[11]通过增加基本模型规则,模拟了群体内领导行为,确定了群体疏散中领导者的最佳分布和比例。上述研究均集中在群体疏散层面,有大量研究从个人层面分析了疏散中策略选择问题。在逃生过程中,视野的受限往往导致行人出现跟随行为[12],这一现象在浓烟弥漫的环境中尤为明显。HELBING等[13]研究了浓烟环境下恐慌导致的个人主义行为和羊群行为。FRANK等[14]研究认为,在浓烟状态下,单一出口房间中沿墙逃生行为是明智之举。刘延东等[15]引入心理作用力,将焦虑因子作用在模型中,从而改进了传统SFM模型。WANG Peng等[16]利用改进的SFM,比较了低能见度下的3种策略(沿墙疏散S1、跟随平均移动方向 S2、跟随平均位置S3)的疏散效率,分析了不同行人密度下不同的策略选择。综上所述,SFM模型的改进主要集中在群体疏散层面和个人决策层面,对SFM模型的修改大多是根据特定应用引入新的力,而对行人在疏散环境的感知和行人与行人、行人与群体之间的协作关系的研究相对较少。
实际疏散中行人疏散策略选择往往呈现多元化。现有模型一般假设多出口全部开放,且所有行人掌握完全信息,这与实际疏散并不相符。多出口建筑往往会关闭部分出口以便于管理,且疏散过程中,行人通常会通过多种方式学习疏散信息,诸如此类的信息变更会改变行人的决策。基于此,笔者拟构建出口开放状态未知情况下基于信息传递的出口寻踪模型,深入探讨信息变更引发的羊群效应对整体疏散的影响以及信息传递对逃生路径的优化作用,以期利用共享信息作出动态决策,使整个疏散系统效率达到最优。
SFM中,行人p所受作用力分为自身驱动力 f p,行人pq之间的排斥力 f p q和行人p与障碍物或墙b之间的力 f p b。3种力的共同作用下行人完成避障、变速、竞争、超越等行为,行人所受作用力如图1所示。模型运动公式为:
F = m p d v p d t = f p + f p q + f p b
f p = m p v p 0 ( t ) e p 0 ( t ) - v p ( t ) τ p
式中: m p为行人p的质量,kg; τ p为松弛时间,s; v p 0 ( t ) t时刻行人为到达目标位置产生的心理预期速度,m/s; v p ( t )t时刻行人的实际速度,m/s; e p 0 ( t )t时刻行人p期望速度方向;当行人p的目标位置为A时, e p A (t) = X p A - X p X p A - X p; e p A (t)为t时刻行人在位置A时的期望速度方向,其中, X p A为行人p的目标位置为A; X p为行人p当前所在的实际位置;而 f p q则表示:
$\begin{array}{l} \boldsymbol{f}_{p q}=\boldsymbol{f}_{p q}^{\mathrm{psy}}+\boldsymbol{f}_{p q}^{\mathrm{phy}}+\boldsymbol{f}_{p q}^{\mathrm{pgh}}= \\ A_{p} \exp \left(\frac{r_{p q}-d_{p q}}{B_{p}}\right) \boldsymbol{n}_{p q}+K g\left(r_{p q}-d_{p q}\right) \boldsymbol{n}_{p q}+ \\ k g\left(r_{p q}-d_{p q}\right) \boldsymbol{\Delta} v_{q p}^{t} \boldsymbol{t}_{p q} \end{array}$
n p q = n p q 1 n p q 2 = ( x p - x q ) / d p q
式中: f p q p s y为心理力;行人pq的质心距离小于两者半径之和时,行人身体发生接触,触发挤压弹力 f p q p h y和接触摩擦力 f p q p g h ; A p为心理力系数; B p为心理力范围,m;K为弹性系数;k为滑动摩擦因数; r p q为行人p与行人q身体半径之和,m; d p q为行人p与行人q的质心距离,m; n p qq指向p的归一化向量; g ( x )为0~1函数, g (x) = 0 r p q d p q r p q - d p q r p q > d p q; Δ v q p tpq的切向速度差,m/s; Δ v q p t = v q - v p t p q; t p q为与 n p q相互垂直的切线方向单位向量。
行人p与障碍物b的相互作用力 f p b类似于行人之间的相互作用力 f p q,表达式为:
f p b = A p e x p r p - d p b B p n p b + K g ( r p - d p b ) n p b + k g ( r p - d p b ) ( - v i t p b ) t p b
为描述不同情况下行人对距离的忍耐程度,引入竞争机制。当人们急切地想要达到某一地点时,与身边行人的边界感会相对减弱。如音乐会现场,个体趋向于主动降低个人空间需求。又或是灾难突发现场,逃生的需求迫使个体对拥挤的接受度提高。因此,事件的迫切性与行人对碰撞的忍耐呈正相关。事件越迫切,疏散期望越高,行人对碰撞的排斥越小。将事件紧急程度作为一个参数加入到模型中,见下式:
f p q p s y = ( 1 - σ ( t ) ) f p q p s y
式中 σ为事件的紧急程度,   σ [ 0,1 ] σ值与忍耐程度呈正相关,当 σ = 0时,行人的自我空间意识很强,对碰撞的排斥和拥挤的厌烦程度最高。此时,行人的心理力完全根据模型设定最大值进行计算,当 σ = 1时,行人不再受心理力的约束。
疏散人员对外界环境的感知可看作是疏散信息的获取;疏散者根据获取的信息进行选择决策,信息模糊、信息错误、信息变更都会影响决策的正确性。紧急情况下,行人最关注的疏散信息包括出口的位置、开放状态、出口前的行人密度、出口距离以及疏散路径上其他行人的信息。当疏散环境影响到行人的视听范围时,同样会影响行人决策过程。紧急情况的发生往往会使得疏散环境变得更复杂,如火灾时空间内的浓烟和有毒气体。因此,将试验背景设置为充满浓烟的嘈杂环境,以了解复杂环境疏散时行人的选择策略及其带来的群体行为,找到决策的关键因素,以调控整体疏散。
试验环境为浓烟环境下的一个正方形疏散空间,在四面墙壁中间各有一个宽为1 m的疏散门,房间内不存在任何障碍物。行人的视野被限制在一个半径为 χ的圆形内,浓烟状态会影响行人的移动速度[17-19]。行人在看到出口前,其期望速度 v p 0 =0.5 m/s,所有行人都清楚地知道出口位置。当出口出现在行人视野内时,行人期望速度为:
v p e = δ v p 0 ( δ 1 )
式中 δ为出口对期望速度的影响程度,其值越大,影响越大。
试验开始前行人随机分散在房间的各个角落,出口的开放状态将做出调整,任意关闭2个或3个出口,视为信息变更的条件。由于每个人都清楚所有出口的位置,因此,当疏散开始时,人们会首先选择向距离自身较近的出口移动,疏散状况如图2所示。房间被划分为4个区域,分别为 N 1 N 2 N 3 N 4,这4个图形对称的门,不同区域的人将分别驶向4个不同出口。只有出口出现在行人视野内(图2门口的阴影区域),行人才能清楚确定出口的开闭状态。如果出口为开放状态,则行人直接从该出口逃生。如果出口为关闭状态,行人将会有2种选择策略。
第1种称为理性选择策略,行人p发现选择出口无法使用后,在知道其他出口位置的前提下,选择剩余3个出口中距离较近的出口疏散,若第2次选择仍未找到出口,则在剩余2个出口中选择较近的出口疏散,不重复依次排除直到找出逃生出口。以图2中行人 p为例,仿真开始时,其期望速度方向表达为:
e p N 1 = ( X p N 1 - X p ) X p N 1 - X p
式中: X p N 1表示行人p的目标位置为出口N1; X p为当前所在的实际位置。若视野范围内N1关闭,则将目标方向改为距离较近的N4出口。
目标门Ni的确定公式为:
N i = a r g m i n ( d p i )
式中 d p n为当前位置下行人与其他门间距,m。
Φ ( n )表示出口的开闭状态, Φ ( n )=1表示该出口开放,否则表示该出口关闭。
Φ (n) = 1   0
第2种选择为非理性选择策略,即无思考的跟随行为。通常出现在陌生环境中,行人缺乏足够的信息来判断逃生路径,会选择跟随他人逃生。当行人发现出口关闭,已知信息发生变化、判断的不确定性以及恐慌带来的紧迫感都会导致行人倾向于放弃自我判断,转而依赖他人。这种情况下,个体的移动方向受到群体运动方向影响。对该行为的描述参考HELBING等[13]提出的羊群公式:
e p 0 ( t ) = N o r m ( 1 - P p ) e p + P p < e q 0 ( t ) > p
P p (t) = 1 - v - p ( t ) / v p 0
式中: P p为个体p的恐慌程度; e p为个体的期望速度方向; < e q 0 ( t ) > p为行人p附近邻居的平均方向; v p 0为个体最初的期望速度,m/s; v - p ( t )为在期望运动方向上的平均速度,m/s。Norm表示向量的归一化。若 P p值低,行人会出现个人主义行为,否则会有群体行为。
当行人出现非理性行为时,他们的期望速度方向依然为未排除可能的出口中距离最近的一个 e p N i(i=1,2,3,4),同时,个人移动方向受其周围行人的平均移动方向的影响,此时恐慌参数为 P R p。当行人的视野内可以看到墙壁时,他们会选择沿墙疏散,逃跑方向从墙的2个方向中随机选择 e p w + e p w -,此时的恐慌系数同样为 P R p。相应公式如下:
e p 0 (t) = N o r m ( 1 - P R p ) e p N i + P R p < e q 0 ( t ) > p   N o r m ( 1 - P R p ) e p w + P R p < e q 0 ( t ) > p
信息传递如图3所示(图中数字为信息传播过程,从得到信息的个体开始向邻居传播,数字代表传播路径)。在信息传输机制下,行人可以从邻居处获得有关出口的信息,信息伴随着人群互动而传递,在收到有效信息后,行人会判断信息的准确性,并相应地重新规划疏散路径。行人在接收到一条出口信息后判断时间越短,信息越可靠,行人可根据传播时间来评估信息可信度,灾难发生的时间对有的逃生者来说是已知的,通常认为逃生黄金时间是在灾难发生后的180s以内[20],多次传播会导致信息失真。因此,短时间内获取的信息更为有效,行人倾向于依赖信息提供者,并跟随其行动。如果逃生时间较长,行人收到的信息可能不够可靠,因为信息可能已被传播多次导致失真,行人更加相信原本的判断。
改进后模型的基本表达式如下:
F = f ' p + f p q + f p b
$\begin{aligned} \boldsymbol{f}_{p}^{\prime}=\exp (-\psi) \boldsymbol{f}_{p} & +(1-\exp (-\psi)) \boldsymbol{f}_{p}^{m} \\ \psi & =T / 10 \end{aligned}$
式中: f ' p为获取出口信息后新的自身驱动力; e x p ( - Ψ )为信息可靠系数; e x p ( - Ψ ) f p表示对原有自身驱动力的保留部分; f p m为提供出口信息的邻居m对行人p的吸引力;Ψ为信息传播的次数。Ψ =T/10;T为行人p从灾难发生到接收信息为止已进行的疏散时间。Ψ=0时,表示信息完全可信,Ψ→∞,则信息丢失。
行人驱动力公式 f p与原模型一致,期望方向由当前位置指向距离较近的出口,表达式为:
e p N i = ( X p N i - X p ) X p N i - X p i = 1,2 3,4
提供出口信息的邻居对行人的吸引力 f p m为:
f p m = m p v p e ( t ) e p m ( t ) - v p ( t ) τ p
行人在接收信息后,其期望速度为 v p e ( t ),与没有信息传输机制下行人看到出口时的期望速度一致。 e p m为从行人p指向邻居m的方向,见下式:
e p N i = ( X p m - X p ) X p m - X p
行人的视野范围内看到出口时,才能获得该出口的全部信息,否则其相关信息只能从周围邻居处得到。出口信息包括出口的开闭状态和出口前的人群密度,在获得这些信息后传递给四周视野范围内的人,信息随之依次传递下去。此外,也应考虑信息多次传播的失真性,加入信息可靠系数,得到的信息量表达公式如下:
S i = e x p ( - ψ ) k 1 Φ ( N i ) + k 2 ρ ( N i ) - l r k 1 + k 2
ρ ( N i ) = 2 W π χ 2
式中: S i为第Ni个出口的信息;Φ(Ni)为出口的开闭状态; ρ ( N i )为出口前的行人密度,人/m2; l r为灵敏系数,用于调整密度所占权重的灵敏度;k1、k2分别为出口状态和密度的权重系数;W为视野范围内出口前的总人数; χ为行人的视野半径,m。
由于仿真环境中不止一个疏散门,行人可能会接收到来自邻居们不同出口的信息,即便是相同出口,也会因传递次数的不同而有所差异。因此,作为无法看到出口的信息接收者,在众多信息中选择更可靠信息源尤为重要。从下式可以看出,出口状态开放,出口前行人密度较低且信息传播次数越少时,其 S n值越高。如果行人p的视野范围内有W个行人,则选择其中一个携带信息量最大的人z作为参考对象,公式表达如下:
z = a r g m a x { S i } i = 1,2 W
仿真参数的设定参考HEBLING等[13]的文献。对于每个行人p来说,身体半径 r p=0.3m,体质量 m p=65kg。参数 A p=2 000N, B p=0.08m, K=1.2×105 τ p=0.5s,非理性策略下的竞争系数 σ=0.5,理性策略下的竞争系数 σ=0.3。行人的视野半径 χ=3 m,期望速度 v p 0=0.5m/s,出口信息相关权重 k 1=5, k 2=2, l r=1。
仿真环境为一个15 m×15 m的房间,4个门位于四面墙的中间,门宽为1m。每种条件下的仿真重复50次,并计算其平均值作为最终结果。试验开始前行人在房间内的位置是随机且均匀的,所有仿真均采用该分布方法。
仿真试验分为2部分,第1部分为无信息传输机制,出口状态未知对行人疏散的影响。第2部分为引入信息传输机制后,对行人路径选择的影响。
第1部分试验中,N1N4 2个相邻的出口为关闭状态,行人的期望速度为 v p e=1.5m/s。由图4可知:不同行人密度下(U=50,U=100,U=150,U=200)2种策略在疏散时间上存在差异,当行人密度较低时,2种策略的疏散时间差距较小,当房间内行人密度上升后,策略的选择变得至关重要,选择理性策略对整体疏散更有利。但当行人的密度超过200人时,2种策略在疏散总时间上的差距又逐渐变小。
不同策略下的行人疏散过程如图5所示。通过输出行人在疏散过程中的快照探究上述结果的成因。非理性策略下,受到从众心理的影响,行人形成几个群体,每个群组内的个体都有相似的行进方向。行人以组为单位进行行径,易在出口处产生拥堵。而在理性策略下,行人按照距离优先原则,选择较近的出口逃生,选择的理性带来行为的有序,行人的陆续到达减轻了出口处的压力。当行人密度达到一定水平后,流出速率则取决于出口宽度。
为进一步分析2种策略对行人运动轨迹的影响,图6输出了1位第1次选择了关闭状态出口的行人的逃生轨迹。图6a为理性策略下的疏散路径,N4门关闭时,他选择了距离较近的N1门,最后从N2门逃生。相较而言,非理性策略下(图6b)伴随多次转弯,且有沿墙走的痕迹,说明非理性疏散过程中存在许多低效行为。
此外,理性决策的试验数据极差相对较小,而非理性决策的试验数据极差较大。图7给出2种策略的平均疏散时间及50次试验数据散点图,非理性策略试验数据在平均数附近有较大波动。对比表明:最短和最长疏散时间均出现在非理性策略下,对于一次试验而言,非理性决策有一定概率占优,使疏散效果达到最佳。但逃生行为是不可重复的,非理性决策面临更大的风险。
紧急疏散是一种群体行为。在现实情况中,所有人采取同一决策逃生的可能性微乎其微。特别是在环境不确定、信息不全面情况下,不同个体会选择不同的逃生策略。
设置完全理性、75%理性、50%理性、25%理性与完全非理性5种不同比例试验,试验人数为100人,如图8所示。图8表明:25%的理性比例可使人群在更短的时间内完成疏散。这个结果出乎预料,没有引入信息传输机制的试验,证明了对于个体而言理性策略会带来更好的疏散效率,所以,理性策略占比越高则疏散效果越好。但事实证明,结果并非如此。图9输出了疏散过程中的快照图以探究其成因,图9表明:相比于完全非理性策略,25%的理性比例形成了较少的分组,选择理性策略的逃生者担任了领导人的作用,他们的加入优化了羊群整体方向,使行人由个体有序变成群组有序。群组的形成建立了几条有序的疏散流,减少了因方向冲突而带来的减速和摩擦,降低了整体的交互障碍,进而促进了疏散效率。
首先,模拟2个相邻出口关闭状态下不同行人密度对疏散的影响,如图10所示。引入信息传递机制后,疏散效率都有所提高。特别是在密度较高(U=150)的情况下,疏散时间相比于理性策略减少了54%,相比于非理性策略减少了62%。随着人群规模的增加(U=200),有效信息的传递对疏散的改善相对减弱。此时,即使房间内的滞留行人知晓了有效出口的信息,但2个开放出口已得到充分使用,要想缩短疏散时间只能扩展出口宽度。
随后,仿真模拟3个封闭出口下行人的疏散状态(U=150),结果如图11所示。可以看到,相比于理性策略疏散时间减少62%,相比于非理性策略疏散时间减少70%,信息传递进一步促进了人群的疏散。单出口场景下,正确可靠的信息变得稀少,即使理性的排除也会浪费很多时间。
此时,能快速得知出口信息对于行人路径的选择至关重要。从疏散过程(图12)可以看出,行人在收到来自邻居的出口信息后,方向变得明确,跟随信息提供者直接向有效出口逃生。行人收到来自邻居的出口信息后,会跟随邻居行走,而该邻居又会跟随信息提供者,直到所有人都离开房间,这种受周围人影响,并产生追随他人方向的行为,最终以群体的形式呈现,出现类似于羊群效应的现象,行人对出口的选择取决于周围人的选择。
最后,研究期望速度影响系数 δ对整体疏散的影响, δ值越大表示信息传递对速度的改善效果越显著,意味着行人在得知出口信息后,想要以更快的速度逃离。在2个开放出口的情况下(图13a),疏散总时间随着系数 δ的增加而不断缩短。在只有一个出口开放情况下(图13b), δ对速度的改善可以在一定范围内缩短疏散时间,但随着期望速度进一步增加,对疏散时间的影响开始减弱,结果表明:当期望速度增加到一定水平后,信息传递机制对出口使用的改进达到了峰值。
1) 在没有信息传输机制的前提下,相比于非理性策略,行人选择理性策略更有利于整体疏散。然而,非理性策略(跟随行为)是否有效存在不确定性,取决于群体的疏散路径选择。因此,选择理性策略是更稳妥和有效的逃生手段。
2) 行人间的异质性使得整个群体在疏散中展现出理性与非理性的混合策略。仿真结果显示,25%的行人选择理性策略时整体疏散效果最佳。
3) 信息传输机制能显著提高疏散效率。通过行人之间的信息交流与合作,逃生者能够了解到整个系统的疏散状况。在疏散过程中,实际开放出口越少,信息传递的促进效果越明显。信息传递机制使行人更倾向于采取跟随策略,有利于建立有效的逃生通道,减少不必要的冲突,提高逃生效率。
  • 室内空间布局优化与安全保障四川省高校重点实验室2023年度项目(2023SNKJ-05)
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2024年第34卷第4期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1534
  • 接收时间:2023-10-19
  • 首发时间:2025-07-09
  • 出版时间:2024-04-28
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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-19
  • 修回日期:2024-01-23
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室内空间布局优化与安全保障四川省高校重点实验室2023年度项目(2023SNKJ-05)
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    1 河北工业大学 土木与交通学院,天津 300401
    2 成都师范学院 室内空间布局优化与安全保障四川省高校重点实验室,四川 成都 611130
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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