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Article(id=1149738958768223031, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738954913661267, articleNumber=1003-3033(2024)04-0121-07, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0687, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1697990400000, receivedDateStr=2023-10-23, revisedDate=1706284800000, revisedDateStr=2024-01-27, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752048728887, onlineDateStr=2025-07-09, pubDate=1714233600000, pubDateStr=2024-04-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752048728887, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752048728887, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752048728887, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1149738954913661267, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2024', volume='34', issue='4', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752048727968, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1756468927830, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1168278616925286857, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738954913661267, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1168278616925286858, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738954913661267, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=121, endPage=127, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149738959116350275, articleId=1149738958768223031, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Study on social risk acceptance criteria of road tunnel fire in China, columnId=1149733269173878863, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety engineering technology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to assist tunnel fire risk management and decision-making，the definition and principles of social risk acceptance criteria for road tunnel fire were established. Based on a statistical analysis of tunnel fire fatalities in China from 2000 to 2020 and a survey of public perceptions of tunnel fire risk，social risk acceptance criteria of tunnel fires in China was developed by the F/N curve method，and the acceptance critical limits for accident frequency and consequences were defined. The results show that the public has a tolerable attitude towards the current situation of tunnel fire accident risk. The maximum acceptable frequency of tunnel fire fatalities in China is set at 10-5/(km·a)，and the maximum tolerable frequency is set at 10-4/(km·a).

, correspAuthors=Xuepeng JIANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Qirui WANG, Xuepeng JIANG, Guangqiao XUE, Xinbo QIAN), CN=ArticleExt(id=1149738974261981660, articleId=1149738958768223031, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=我国公路隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准研究, columnId=1149733269727526997, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全工程技术, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为辅助隧道火灾风险管理及决策，提出隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准定义和制定原则；比较国外隧道风险相关标准，统计分析我国2000—2020年间隧道火灾死亡事故案例，开展社会公众隧道火灾风险认知调查；基于F/N曲线方法，建立适用于我国的隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准，明确事故频率和后果的可接受临界阈值。结果表明：公众对于隧道火灾事故风险现状持可容忍态度；我国隧道火灾死亡事故最大可接受频率设定为10-5/(km·a)，最大可容忍频率设定为10-4/(km·a)。

, correspAuthors=姜学鹏, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
**姜学鹏(1976—)，男，山东平度人，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事隧道火灾动力学、城市公共安全、新型高效洁净灭火等方面的研究。E-mail：。
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王启睿 (1996—)，男，吉林四平人，博士研究生，研究方向为隧道及地下空间火灾风险评估与应急救援。E-mail：。

薛光桥 正高级工程师

钱新博 副教授

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王启睿 (1996—)，男，吉林四平人，博士研究生，研究方向为隧道及地下空间火灾风险评估与应急救援。E-mail：。

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王启睿 (1996—)，男，吉林四平人，博士研究生，研究方向为隧道及地下空间火灾风险评估与应急救援。E-mail：。

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薛光桥 正高级工程师

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薛光桥 正高级工程师

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钱新博 副教授

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钱新博 副教授

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label=Fig.7, caption=Tunnel fire social risk criteria F/N curve in China, figureFileSmall=zgM2xF1N0mAyn6MG2rsc6Q==, figureFileBig=3NBzFENAqcLdcxGdV8oDAg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1168150897600242488, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=CN, label=图7, caption=我国隧道火灾社会风险标准F/N曲线, figureFileSmall=zgM2xF1N0mAyn6MG2rsc6Q==, figureFileBig=3NBzFENAqcLdcxGdV8oDAg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1168150897658962745, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=EN, label=Tab.1, caption=

Road tunnel average operating miles and fire accidents frequency from 2000 to 2020

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时间段 死亡频率/
(km·a)-1		 死亡事故频率/
(km·a)-1
2000—2005年 0.002 26 1.8×10-4
2006—2010年 0.001 62 1.8×10-4
2011—2015年 0.001 00 1.0×10-4
2016—2020年 0.000 36 6.0×10-5
), ArticleFig(id=1168150897705100090, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2000—2020年我国公路隧道火灾事故发生频率

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
时间段 死亡频率/
(km·a)-1		 死亡事故频率/
(km·a)-1
2000—2005年 0.002 26 1.8×10-4
2006—2010年 0.001 62 1.8×10-4
2011—2015年 0.001 00 1.0×10-4
2016—2020年 0.000 36 6.0×10-5
), ArticleFig(id=1168150897772208955, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=EN, label=Tab.2, caption=

Results of questionnaire reliability test

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
问卷维度 题目数 信度检验结果
隧道火灾事故频率认知调查 5 0.732
隧道火灾事故后果认知调查 3 0.748
隧道火灾风险可接受程度测量 4 0.852
), ArticleFig(id=1168150897826734908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

调查问卷信度检验结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
问卷维度 题目数 信度检验结果
隧道火灾事故频率认知调查 5 0.732
隧道火灾事故后果认知调查 3 0.748
隧道火灾风险可接受程度测量 4 0.852
), ArticleFig(id=1168150897885455165, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=EN, label=Tab.3, caption=

Results of questionnaire validity test

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因子 效度检验结果
KMO 0.788
Bartlett球形值 1 351.175
p 0.00
), ArticleFig(id=1168150897935786814, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

调查问卷效度检验结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因子 效度检验结果
KMO 0.788
Bartlett球形值 1 351.175
p 0.00
), ArticleFig(id=1168150897990312767, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=EN, label=Tab.4, caption=

Survey results of tunnel fire risk acceptability measurement

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
隧道火灾死亡事故总体可接受频率 重大及以上隧道火灾事故可接受频率 特别重大隧道火灾事故可接受频率
频率/a-1 占比/% 频率/a-1 占比/% 频率/a-1 占比/%
2 6.80 [0.33，1] 8.25 [0.1，0.2] 11.17
1 23.79 [0.2，0.33) 16.99 [0.05，0.1) 14.08
[0.33，1) 21.36 [0.1，0.2) 19.42 [0.02，0.05) 25.73
[0.2，0.33) 18.93 [0.05，0.1) 25.73 [0.01，0.02) 23.79
<0.2 29.13 <0.05 29.61 <0.01 25.24
), ArticleFig(id=1168150898040644416, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738958768223031, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

隧道火灾风险可接受程度测量调查结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
隧道火灾死亡事故总体可接受频率 重大及以上隧道火灾事故可接受频率 特别重大隧道火灾事故可接受频率
频率/a-1 占比/% 频率/a-1 占比/% 频率/a-1 占比/%
2 6.80 [0.33，1] 8.25 [0.1，0.2] 11.17
1 23.79 [0.2，0.33) 16.99 [0.05，0.1) 14.08
[0.33，1) 21.36 [0.1，0.2) 19.42 [0.02，0.05) 25.73
[0.2，0.33) 18.93 [0.05，0.1) 25.73 [0.01，0.02) 23.79
<0.2 29.13 <0.05 29.61 <0.01 25.24
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我国公路隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准研究
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王启睿 1, 2 , 姜学鹏 1, 2, ** , 薛光桥 3 , 钱新博 2
中国安全科学学报 | 安全工程技术 2024,34(4): 121-127
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中国安全科学学报 | 安全工程技术 2024, 34(4): 121-127
我国公路隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准研究
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王启睿1, 2 , 姜学鹏1, 2, ** , 薛光桥3, 钱新博2
作者信息
  • 1 武汉科技大学 资源与环境工程学院，湖北 武汉 430081
  • 2 武汉科技大学 安全与应急研究院，湖北 武汉 430081
  • 3 中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司，湖北 武汉 430063

    • 王启睿 (1996—)，男，吉林四平人，博士研究生，研究方向为隧道及地下空间火灾风险评估与应急救援。E-mail：。

    薛光桥 正高级工程师

    钱新博 副教授

通讯作者:

**姜学鹏(1976—)，男，山东平度人，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事隧道火灾动力学、城市公共安全、新型高效洁净灭火等方面的研究。E-mail：。
Study on social risk acceptance criteria of road tunnel fire in China
Qirui WANG1, 2 , Xuepeng JIANG1, 2, ** , Guangqiao XUE3, Xinbo QIAN2
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Resources and Environmental Engineering，Wuhan University of Science and Technology，Wuhan Hubei 430081，China
  • 2 Institute of Safety and Emergency，Wuhan University of Science and Technology，Wuhan Hubei 430081，China
  • 3 China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co.，Ltd.，Wuhan Hubei 430063，China
出版时间: 2024-04-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0687
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摘要
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为辅助隧道火灾风险管理及决策，提出隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准定义和制定原则；比较国外隧道风险相关标准，统计分析我国2000—2020年间隧道火灾死亡事故案例，开展社会公众隧道火灾风险认知调查；基于F/N曲线方法，建立适用于我国的隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准，明确事故频率和后果的可接受临界阈值。结果表明：公众对于隧道火灾事故风险现状持可容忍态度；我国隧道火灾死亡事故最大可接受频率设定为10-5/(km·a)，最大可容忍频率设定为10-4/(km·a)。

隧道火灾  /  社会风险标准  /  可接受标准  /  风险认知  /  F/N曲线

In order to assist tunnel fire risk management and decision-making，the definition and principles of social risk acceptance criteria for road tunnel fire were established. Based on a statistical analysis of tunnel fire fatalities in China from 2000 to 2020 and a survey of public perceptions of tunnel fire risk，social risk acceptance criteria of tunnel fires in China was developed by the F/N curve method，and the acceptance critical limits for accident frequency and consequences were defined. The results show that the public has a tolerable attitude towards the current situation of tunnel fire accident risk. The maximum acceptable frequency of tunnel fire fatalities in China is set at 10-5/(km·a)，and the maximum tolerable frequency is set at 10-4/(km·a).

tunnel fire  /  social risk criteria  /  acceptance criteria  /  risk perception  /  F/N curve
王启睿, 姜学鹏, 薛光桥, 钱新博. 我国公路隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准研究. 中国安全科学学报, 2024 , 34 (4) : 121 -127 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0687
Qirui WANG, Xuepeng JIANG, Guangqiao XUE, Xinbo QIAN. Study on social risk acceptance criteria of road tunnel fire in China[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (4) : 121 -127 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0687
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0 引言
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公路隧道是关系国民经济发展和公众生产生活的重要基础设施。截至2021年底，我国(除港澳台地区)已建成公路隧道23 268座，总里程达24 698.9km[1]。火灾作为公路隧道中最严重复杂的灾害类型，会导致人员的重大伤亡[2⇓-4]。因此，隧道火灾社会风险问题得到管理部门和公众的广泛关注。
频率-后果(F/N)曲线[5-6]是风险评估与决策领域的一种主要方法。MENG Qiang等[7]采用F/N曲线方法，量化评估了交通量和重型货车对公路隧道社会风险的影响；BENEKOS等[8]基于公路隧道危险货物运输的13个标准化事故场景，提出了综合考虑降低风险与成本效益的安全措施优化方法；CALIENDO等[9]采用F/N曲线，研究了隧道高峰期交通量、重型货车占比、通风系统故障对隧道社会风险的影响，并提出危险货物运输交通管制措施相关建议；NTZEREMES等[10]比较分析了欧盟各国隧道火灾风险评估方法，认为现有风险评估过程存在一定缺陷；张通等[11]定性提出了我国隧道火灾风险F/N曲线；赵峰[12]结合我国2000—2008年交通事故统计数据，初步提出我国公路隧道运营风险接受准则。综上，已有隧道社会风险标准相关研究多采用单维度定性方法，对于当前安全形势、未来安全目标、公众风险认知等因素未作全面考虑。
鉴于此，笔者拟从隧道火灾社会风险标准制定原则出发，采用横向比较、历史数据统计分析、公众风险认知调查等方法，基于F/N曲线，多维度提出适用于我国的公路隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准，以期为隧道火灾风险评估和风险管理决策提供依据。
1 社会风险可接受标准制定方法
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1.1 隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准定义
社会风险为特定人群遭受特定程度伤害的频率和人数与特定危害发生数量之间的关系[13]，在完成社会风险评估后应决定风险是否能够被接受，在这一过程中采用的各种约束条件和限制就是风险接受标准[10]。虽然风险接受标准多由决策部门制定，但公众对于风险接受的认知同样重要[14-15]。
因此，定义隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准为：在消防安全政策法规框架下，符合决策部门安全目标和公众风险接受意愿的隧道火灾死亡事故频率与后果的组合阈值。
1.2 隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准制定原则
我国隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准的制定应遵循以下原则：
1) 等效性原则。风险接受标准[16]反映了当前安全水平和未来安全目标，一般应不低于其他国家相关标准要求，同时应不高于历史事故风险水平。
2) 简单实用原则。风险标准应在当前法律框架内具有可操作性[17]，便于推广实施和向公众解释。
3) 最低合理可行原则。风险标准并不是越严格越好，应依托于当前行业发展水平和安全水平，在严格要求的同时必须以可行性为基础。
4) 广泛可接受原则。风险标准应在考虑不同社会角色和风险认知差异基础上具有广泛可接受性，符合管理部门未来安全政策目标，对设计运营单位具有实际指导意义，社会公众能够接受且满意。
5) 平等性原则。风险接受标准需以伦理学价值观和道德为基础，充分考虑不同社会群体的风险接受意愿[18]。
1.3 F/N曲线方法
F/N曲线用于表示事故后果与事故频率之间的函数关系，其理论表达式[19-20]为：
F ( N ) = ∑ i = N M f i
式中：F(N)为导致N人及以上死亡的事故累积频率，1/(km·a);N为事故死亡人数；fi为事故导致i人死亡的估计频率，1/(km·a);M为单起事故死亡人数上限。风险可接受频率Fa(N)和可容忍频率Ft(N)可分别表示为：
F a ( N ) = C a / N - k a
F t ( N ) = C t / N - k t
式中：Ca和Ct为截距分别为N取最低设定值时的最大可接受和可容忍频率；ka和kt分别为可接受和可容忍风险厌恶指数，取值为-1时为中立型风险，取值为-2时为厌恶型风险。当F(N)≤Fa(N)时，风险可接受；当F(N)≤Ft(N)时，风险可容忍。
式(2)两边取对数得：
l g F a ( N )   - k a l g ( N )   = l g ( C a )
在双对数坐标中风险标准F/N曲线为直线形式。
1.4 ALARP原则与风险标准F/N曲线绘制过程
社会风险标准通常在F/N曲线基础上，由最低合理可行(As Low As Reasonable Practicable，ALARP)原则所提供的上限和下限表示[21]，该原则将风险标准按照接受程度划分为3个区域，不可接受风险区必须采用风险降低措施，可接受风险区无需进一步采用风险降低措施。ALARP区是可接受风险区和不可接受风险区之间的区域，应在成本效益分析基础上，采用风险降低措施最大程度降低风险，多数情况下，这个区域宽度为1~2个数量级。风险标准F/N曲线绘制过程主要由确定可接受风险线、可容忍风险线、后果限制值3个步骤组成；可接受和可容忍风险曲线则通过相应的斜率k和截距C确定；后果限制值是指事故死亡人数到达某个临界值时，风险将不再可接受或可容忍。
2 隧道火灾社会风险标准分析
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2.1 国外公路隧道运营风险标准横向比较
欧洲的隧道风险可接受标准[22-23]有些适用于隧道整体交通风险，有些仅适用于危险货物运输风险。隧道整体交通风险、危险货物运输风险、火灾风险间关系如图1所示。危险货物运输和火灾风险均包含于整体交通风险中，但二者间存在交叉。危险货物运输和火灾风险标准应比整体交通运输风险标准更严格，多数国家未单独针对隧道火灾建立相应风险标准。
部分国家制定的隧道风险标准F/N曲线如图2所示[18]。奥地利和意大利采用每年每座隧道事故频率的风险标准，其他国家则采用每年每公里事故频率的风险标准为准。新加坡和捷克的隧道整体交通风险标准最为严格，英国较宽松；瑞士的危险货物运输风险标准相对较为严格。瑞士和捷克的F/N曲线上下限斜率相同，相差2个数量级。
由于危险货物运输是隧道火灾的关键致因[24]，考虑到我国隧道数量及复杂性高于其他国家，建议我国隧道火灾风险标准高于其他国家危险货物运输风险标准的最严格值(瑞士)，且不低于其他国家隧道整体交通风险标准的最严格值(捷克)，即Fa(1)≤10-4/(km·a)，Fa(10)≤10-6/(km·a)。
2.2 基于事故统计的隧道火灾社会风险标准分析
依据等效性原则，社会风险标准的制定需基于历史事故数据分析当前安全形势。由于隧道火灾事故属于典型小概率事件，以每5年1组，统计我国2000—2020年隧道火灾死亡事故起数、隧道火灾死亡人数及平均运营里程数[24-25]，计算每5年期内平均每年隧道火灾死亡事故发生频率与死亡频率，结果见表1。2000—2020年间我国隧道火灾死亡事故发生频率和人员死亡频率分别为1.3×10-4和0.001 31/(km·a);2016—2020年期间火灾死亡事故频率和人员死亡频率分别为6×10-5和0.000 36/(km·a)。
2000—2020年间我国共发生重大隧道火灾事故4起，特别重大隧道火灾事故1起，按20年间公路隧道平均每年里程数7 842.05km计算，我国重大及以上隧道火灾事故和特别重大隧道火灾事故频率分别为3.19×10-5和6.38×10-6/(km·a)。未来我国隧道火灾总体社会风险应不高于2016—2020年间水平，重特大事故社会风险应不高于2000—2020年期间水平，即：Fa(1)、Fa(10)和Fa(30)均不大于6×10-5、3.19×10-5和6.38×10-6/(km·a)。
3 隧道火灾社会公众风险认知调查
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采用问卷调查法量化公众对隧道火灾风险的认知情况与接受意愿，问卷调查维度见表2。各维度问卷题目设置按照事故后果等级进行事故频率与后果的可接受程度调查，以避免出现问卷结果过于倾向风险最低值，与客观事实严重偏离的情况。
3.1 调查问卷信效度分析
研究共收集调查问卷206份，为保证问卷结果有效性首先进行信效度检验。信度检验用于反映问卷对重复测量同一事件时结果的一致性程度，一般将克朗巴赫系数(α)作为检验标准[26]，在探索性研究中，α > 0.7可判定为高信度[27]。信度检验结果见表2，问卷每一维度信度值均在0.7以上，说明问卷结果具有较高的稳定性和可信度。
效度检验通过抽样适合性(Kaiser Meyer Olkin，KMO)检验统计和Bartlett球形检验进行判断。KMO取值范围为0~1，一般以大于0.6作为标准；Bartlett球形检验结果对应的显著性p值以小于0.01作为标准[26]。效度检验结果见表3。KMO大于0.6且p<0.001，说明问卷结果测量效度较高。
3.2 问卷调查对象基本信息统计
基于平等性原则，风险认知调查需考虑不同社会群体意见。问卷调查对象基本信息统计如图3所示。可以看出，为降低问卷对象主观性对问卷结果的影响，受访公众来自于政府、设计院、高校、企业等不同性质单位，且分布较为均匀；在从事行业领域方面，33.33%的调查对象为相关行业从业人员，其对于风险标准内涵的理解更加深刻，可以保证问卷结果的专业性和准确性。
3.3 隧道火灾事故风险认知调查结果分析
隧道火灾事故频率认知调查统计结果如图4所示。多数受访公众对于我国目前隧道火灾死亡事故发生总体频率、重大及以上事故频率、特别重大事故频率，以及隧道火灾年死亡频率均持可容忍态度。
隧道火灾事故后果认知调查统计结果如图5所示。51.46%的多数受访公众对于较大隧道火灾事故后果持可接受态度，46.6%受访公众对于重大事故后果持可容忍态度，而对于特别重大隧道火灾事故，58.74%的多数受访公众都表示不可容忍。
风险可接受程度测量调查结果见表4。对于隧道火灾死亡事故总体频率，0.33/a的频率能够使半数以上即51.95%的公众可接受，以2021年我国公路隧道运营里程24 698.9km为基准，估计可接受频率为1.35×10-5/(km·a);在重大及以上隧道火灾事故可接受频率方面，0.05/a的频率能够使70.39%的公众可接受，估计可接受频率为2.02×10-6 /(km·a);对于特别重大隧道火灾事故，0.01/a 的频率能够使74.76%的公众可接受，估计可接受频率为4.05×10-7 /(km·a)。
图6为初步构建的隧道火灾社会风险标准F/N曲线。由于多数受访公众对我国当前隧道火灾事故风险持可容忍态度，故可容忍线中的数据点来源于事故统计数据；可接受线中的数据点来源于问卷调查中隧道火灾风险可接受程度测量统计结果。
从图6可以看出，可接受线与可容忍线相差1个数量级。当N>10时，可接受线和可容忍线的斜率明显降低，即风险厌恶程度明显增加。通过对可接受线和可容忍线的原始数据进行线性拟合分析，分别得到可接受线方程为：Fa(N)=1.48×10-5·N-0.84，可容忍线方程：Ft(N)=1.48×10-4·N-1。ka和kt均趋近于1，整体上更接近中立型风险。
4 隧道火灾社会风险标准制订
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4.1 我国隧道火灾社会风险标准F/N曲线绘制
结合基于事故统计与风险认知调查初步构建的F/N曲线，将N=1作为风险标准F/N曲线可接受线起点，设定Ca=10-5，此时Fa(1)=10-5/(km·a)，满足约束条件要求。
对于可接受线斜率即风险规避的选择，公众对于死亡10人以下的隧道火灾事故持风险中立态度，对于死亡10人及以上的隧道火灾事故风险厌恶程度明显增加。因此，可接受线在N<10区间内取斜率ka = -1，N≥10区间内取ka = -2。此时Fa(10)=10-6，Fa(30)=1.11×10-7，均满足约束条件要求。
对于风险标准F/N曲线可容忍线，依据图6中初步构建的F/N曲线，设定Ct=10-4，与可接受线相差1个数量级。当N<10时，同样按照斜率kt = -1取值，当N≥10时，按照斜率kt = -2取值。
考虑到公众对于特别重大隧道火灾事故后果普遍难以容忍，将死亡30人设定为后果管制值，死亡30人以上的可接受风险区定义为重点监控区，相关部门应持续重点关注该区域内风险状态；将死亡30人以上的ALARP区定义为重点管控区，相关部门应采用更有效的措施以降低特别重大隧道火灾事故风险。另外将死亡100人设为后果限制值，当死亡人数大于100时风险将不可容忍。
4.2 我国隧道火灾社会风险标准制订
适用于我国的隧道火灾社会风险标准F/N曲线如图7所示。可接受线方程为：Fa(N)=10-5N-1，1≤N<10;Fa(N)=10-4N-2，10≤N<100。可容忍线方程为：Ft(N)=10-4N -1，1≤N<10;Ft(N)=10-3N-2，10≤N<100。该F/N曲线框架内的隧道火灾风险标准比欧洲相关标准更严格，高于我国隧道火灾历史风险水平，且能够得到社会公众的广泛接受。
5 结论
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1) 隧道火灾社会风险可接受标准可定义为：在消防安全政策法规框架下，符合决策部门安全目标和公众风险接受意愿的隧道火灾死亡事故频率与后果的组合阈值。
2) 公众对于我国目前隧道火灾死亡事故频率持可容忍态度。当隧道火灾死亡事故总体频率在1.35×10-5/(km·a)以下，重大及以上隧道火灾事故频率在2.02×10-6/(km·a)以下，特别重大隧道火灾事故频率在4.05×10-7/(km·a)以下时，能够得到公众的广泛接受。
3) 我国隧道火灾社会风险标准F/N曲线可接受线以死亡人数1人为起点，最大可接受频率为10-5/(km·a)，可容忍线高于可接受线1个数量级。死亡人数在10以下区间内设定为中立型风险，大于等于10时设定为厌恶型风险。
基金
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  • 国家自然科学基金资助(51874213)
  • 湖北省重点研发计划(2020BCB072)
文献
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2024年第34卷第4期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0687
  • 接收时间：2023-10-23
  • 首发时间：2025-07-09
  • 出版时间：2024-04-28
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  • 收稿日期：2023-10-23
  • 修回日期：2024-01-27
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(51874213)
湖北省重点研发计划(2020BCB072)
作者信息
    1 武汉科技大学 资源与环境工程学院，湖北 武汉 430081
    2 武汉科技大学 安全与应急研究院，湖北 武汉 430081
    3 中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司，湖北 武汉 430063

通讯作者:

**姜学鹏(1976—)，男，山东平度人，博士，教授，博士生导师，主要从事隧道火灾动力学、城市公共安全、新型高效洁净灭火等方面的研究。E-mail：。
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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