Article(id=1149738624868073782, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738621005119786, articleNumber=1003-3033(2024)09-0209-08, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.1879, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1708790400000, receivedDateStr=2024-02-25, revisedDate=1716134400000, revisedDateStr=2024-05-20, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752048649278, onlineDateStr=2025-07-09, pubDate=1727452800000, pubDateStr=2024-09-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752048649278, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752048649278, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752048649278, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1149738621005119786, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2024', volume='34', issue='9', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752048648358, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1757401551172, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1172190322751816581, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738621005119786, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1172190322751816582, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149738621005119786, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=209, endPage=216, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149738625107149111, articleId=1149738624868073782, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Study on resilience assessment and improvement path of urban public safety from perspective of residents' perception: taking Nanjing as an example, columnId=1149733270084042840, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Public safety, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To improve the city's resilience in responding to public safety risks,an integrated theoretical model of "spatial resilience" for urban public safety was proposed,and an urban public safety resilience evaluation index system was developed from the perspective of residents' perceptions. The entropy weight method was used to evaluate the public safety resilience level for Nanjing comprehensively. The results indicated that the overall score of Nanjing's public safety resilience was 6.851 5,and there was a structural imbalance in the resilience construction for the ternary space. Furthermore,social space safety resilience was the highest,followed by information space safety resilience,and physical space safety resilience was the lowest. The unbalanced development of urban public safety space resilience can be attributed to several factors including the lack of overall public safety resilience governance,insufficient investment in infrastructure and equipment maintenance,an imperfect social environmental risk monitoring system,and weak information security awareness and literacy among residents. Specific measures can be taken from the aspects of humanistic concepts,clear strategies,systematic thinking,and diversified cooperation.

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为增强城市应对公共安全风险的能力,构建城市公共安全“空间韧性”一体化理论模型,确立居民感知视角下的城市公共安全韧性评价指标体系。并以南京市为例,运用熵权法综合评估其公共安全韧性水平。结果表明:南京市公共安全韧性总体得分为6.851 5,且三元空间之间韧性建设存在结构性失衡问题,即社会空间安全韧性>信息空间安全韧性>物理空间安全韧性。公共安全韧性治理整体性不足、基础建设与设备维护投入缺乏、社会环境风险监测体系不健全以及居民信息安全意识与素养薄弱是导致城市公共安全空间韧性发展失衡的重要原因。可从人本化理念、清晰化策略、系统化思维以及多元化合作等方面采取针对性措施。

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李崔茜 (1999—),女,山西晋城人,博士研究生,研究方向为公共安全与应急管理。E-mail:

王义保,教授

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Urban public safety resilience assessment index system from perspective of residents' perception

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级指标 二级指标 三级指标
物理空间安
全韧性A
基础设施 公共场所及市政设施安全A1
突发事件与救援A2
应急设施A3
生态环境 生态环境风险A4
生态环境治理A5
社会空间安
全韧性B
社会环境 人际关系B1
居住环境B2
个人生活B3
社会治安 自身安全B4
公众安全B5
社会保障 社会保障B6
信息空间安
全韧性C
数据安全 数据安全C1
信息传播 信息关注C2
信息获取C3
信息识别C4
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084140331899, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

居民感知视角下城市公共安全韧性评估指标体系

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级指标 二级指标 三级指标
物理空间安
全韧性A
基础设施 公共场所及市政设施安全A1
突发事件与救援A2
应急设施A3
生态环境 生态环境风险A4
生态环境治理A5
社会空间安
全韧性B
社会环境 人际关系B1
居住环境B2
个人生活B3
社会治安 自身安全B4
公众安全B5
社会保障 社会保障B6
信息空间安
全韧性C
数据安全 数据安全C1
信息传播 信息关注C2
信息获取C3
信息识别C4
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084282938236, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Survey districts and effective samples

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辖区 发放问
卷数
问卷回
收数
有效数 有效
率/%
鼓楼区 62 62 60 96.77
建邺区 31 31 29 93.55
江宁区 34 34 33 97.06
秦淮区 62 62 53 85.48
玄武区 62 62 61 98.39
雨花台区 59 59 59 100.00
合计 310 310 295 95.16
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084383601533, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

调查区域分布及有效样本量

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
辖区 发放问
卷数
问卷回
收数
有效数 有效
率/%
鼓楼区 62 62 60 96.77
建邺区 31 31 29 93.55
江宁区 34 34 33 97.06
秦淮区 62 62 53 85.48
玄武区 62 62 61 98.39
雨花台区 59 59 59 100.00
合计 310 310 295 95.16
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084488459134, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Weights and scores of ternary space safety resilience indicators

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级
指标
物理空间
安全韧性
社会空间
安全韧性
信息空间
安全韧性
综合
得分
权重 0.254 8 0.419 5 0.325 7 6.851 5
均分 7.336 2 6.833 7 6.495 5
得分 1.869 0 2.866 9 2.115 6
二级
指标
基础
设施
生态
环境
社会
环境
社会
治安
社会
保障
数据
安全
信息
传播
综合
得分
权重 0.137 6 0.117 2 0.085 7 0.123 3 0.210 5 0.255 7 0.070 0 6.647 2
均分 7.345 2 7.327 1 7.072 3 7.190 7 6.238 1 5.722 0 7.268 9
得分 1.010 6 0.858 5 0.606 2 0.886 9 1.313 0 1.463 2 0.508 8
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084559762303, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

三元空间安全韧性指标权重与得分情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级
指标
物理空间
安全韧性
社会空间
安全韧性
信息空间
安全韧性
综合
得分
权重 0.254 8 0.419 5 0.325 7 6.851 5
均分 7.336 2 6.833 7 6.495 5
得分 1.869 0 2.866 9 2.115 6
二级
指标
基础
设施
生态
环境
社会
环境
社会
治安
社会
保障
数据
安全
信息
传播
综合
得分
权重 0.137 6 0.117 2 0.085 7 0.123 3 0.210 5 0.255 7 0.070 0 6.647 2
均分 7.345 2 7.327 1 7.072 3 7.190 7 6.238 1 5.722 0 7.268 9
得分 1.010 6 0.858 5 0.606 2 0.886 9 1.313 0 1.463 2 0.508 8
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084631065472, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Urban physical space safety resilience score

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级指标 物理空间安全韧性
得分 1.869 0
二级指标 基础设施 生态环境
得分 1.010 6 0.858 5
三级指标 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5
得分 0.407 3 0.383 3 0.215 8 0.448 5 0.409 5
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084681397121, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

城市物理空间安全韧性得分情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级指标 物理空间安全韧性
得分 1.869 0
二级指标 基础设施 生态环境
得分 1.010 6 0.858 5
三级指标 A1 A2 A3 A4 A5
得分 0.407 3 0.383 3 0.215 8 0.448 5 0.409 5
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084723340162, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Urban social space safety resilience score

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级指标 社会空间安全韧性
得分 2.866 9
二级指标 社会环境 社会治安 社会保障
得分 0.606 2 0.886 9 1.313 0
三级指标 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6
得分 0.222 6 0.189 8 0.191 8 0.487 8 0.396 0 1.313 0
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084798837635, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

城市社会空间安全韧性得分情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级指标 社会空间安全韧性
得分 2.866 9
二级指标 社会环境 社会治安 社会保障
得分 0.606 2 0.886 9 1.313 0
三级指标 B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6
得分 0.222 6 0.189 8 0.191 8 0.487 8 0.396 0 1.313 0
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084853363588, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=EN, label=Table 6, caption=

Urban information space safety resilience score

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级指标 信息空间安全韧性
得分 2.115 6
二级指标 数据安全 信息传播
得分 1.463 2 0.508 8
三级指标 C1 C2 C3 C4
得分 1.463 2 0.178 5 0.172 5 0.157 9
), ArticleFig(id=1167865084916278149, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149738624868073782, language=CN, label=表6, caption=

城市信息空间安全韧性得分情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级指标 信息空间安全韧性
得分 2.115 6
二级指标 数据安全 信息传播
得分 1.463 2 0.508 8
三级指标 C1 C2 C3 C4
得分 1.463 2 0.178 5 0.172 5 0.157 9
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居民感知视角下城市公共安全韧性评估及提升路径研究:以南京市为例
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李崔茜 , 王义保 , 刘志翔
中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全 2024,34(9): 209-216
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中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全 2024, 34(9): 209-216
居民感知视角下城市公共安全韧性评估及提升路径研究:以南京市为例
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李崔茜 , 王义保, 刘志翔
作者信息
  • 中国矿业大学 公共管理学院,江苏 徐州 221116
  • 李崔茜 (1999—),女,山西晋城人,博士研究生,研究方向为公共安全与应急管理。E-mail:

    王义保,教授

Study on resilience assessment and improvement path of urban public safety from perspective of residents' perception: taking Nanjing as an example
Cuixi LI , Yibao WANG, Zhixiang LIU
Affiliations
  • School of Public Policy & Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China
出版时间: 2024-09-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.1879
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为增强城市应对公共安全风险的能力,构建城市公共安全“空间韧性”一体化理论模型,确立居民感知视角下的城市公共安全韧性评价指标体系。并以南京市为例,运用熵权法综合评估其公共安全韧性水平。结果表明:南京市公共安全韧性总体得分为6.851 5,且三元空间之间韧性建设存在结构性失衡问题,即社会空间安全韧性>信息空间安全韧性>物理空间安全韧性。公共安全韧性治理整体性不足、基础建设与设备维护投入缺乏、社会环境风险监测体系不健全以及居民信息安全意识与素养薄弱是导致城市公共安全空间韧性发展失衡的重要原因。可从人本化理念、清晰化策略、系统化思维以及多元化合作等方面采取针对性措施。

城市公共安全  /  风险感知  /  三元空间  /  “空间韧性”一体化  /  韧性评估  /  指标体系

To improve the city's resilience in responding to public safety risks,an integrated theoretical model of "spatial resilience" for urban public safety was proposed,and an urban public safety resilience evaluation index system was developed from the perspective of residents' perceptions. The entropy weight method was used to evaluate the public safety resilience level for Nanjing comprehensively. The results indicated that the overall score of Nanjing's public safety resilience was 6.851 5,and there was a structural imbalance in the resilience construction for the ternary space. Furthermore,social space safety resilience was the highest,followed by information space safety resilience,and physical space safety resilience was the lowest. The unbalanced development of urban public safety space resilience can be attributed to several factors including the lack of overall public safety resilience governance,insufficient investment in infrastructure and equipment maintenance,an imperfect social environmental risk monitoring system,and weak information security awareness and literacy among residents. Specific measures can be taken from the aspects of humanistic concepts,clear strategies,systematic thinking,and diversified cooperation.

urban public safety  /  risk perception  /  ternary space  /  spatial toughness integration  /  resilience assessment  /  index system
李崔茜, 王义保, 刘志翔. 居民感知视角下城市公共安全韧性评估及提升路径研究:以南京市为例. 中国安全科学学报, 2024 , 34 (9) : 209 -216 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.1879
Cuixi LI, Yibao WANG, Zhixiang LIU. Study on resilience assessment and improvement path of urban public safety from perspective of residents' perception: taking Nanjing as an example[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (9) : 209 -216 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.1879
城市公共安全是党和国家经济建设的重要保障,是人民群众获得感、幸福感的直接体现。党的二十大报告强调要“加快转变超大特大城市发展方式,实施城市更新行动,加强城市基础设施建设,打造宜居、韧性、智慧城市”。全面推进城市公共安全韧性建设是统筹发展和安全的必然选择。
目前,国内外关于城市公共安全韧性治理的研究主要包括工程技术与逻辑路径2类。工程技术类研究重视技术、规划的作用,多从韧性理论视角下探讨城市防灾减灾规划、发展策略[1-3];逻辑路径类研究更具理论和思辨意蕴,多是将韧性思想运用到城市复杂适应系统研究中,提出城市安全韧性的相关概念和理论[4-5],进而为城市公共安全韧性治理水平的提升提供分析框架和路径图式[6]。韧性治理强调自主适应性与恢复能力,为城市面对长期不确定的环境风险与突发灾害提供了治理新思路。而社会群体的风险感知是反映城市公共安全韧性体系建设的一面镜子,往往暴露出城市公共安全的脆弱性。现有研究多将城市公共安全感视为因变量[7-8],这使得无法充分挖掘居民心理、风险感知对提升城市公共安全韧性治理有效性的巨大潜能。
鉴于此,笔者选取南京市作为研究对象,从物理空间、社会空间、信息空间3个维度,调查居民对城市不同空间领域的风险感知程度,以此测度城市公共安全韧性建设水平,以期为增强城市安全韧性、提高居民安全感、增进人民福祉提供理论参考。
风险感知是指“公众对风险的直觉判断”[9]。从心理学视角上看,风险感知指个体对存在于外界的各种客观风险的感受和认识,强调个体由直观判断和主观感受获得的经验对认知的影响[10]。正是在对风险感知、觉察的基础上,人们在现实活动中应对风险、追求安全。安全既涉及到生理、财产等客观实在免于破坏,也涉及到社会主体对当前和未来免于被侵害的判断。1992年,玛丽·道格拉斯提出“多安全才算安全”,使安全从一个客观社会状况描述问题转变为主观风险感知问题[11]
与此同时,起源于物理学领域的“韧性”被逐渐应用在社会学、管理学等领域。学者们普遍认为,打造韧性城市是未来城市发展的重要取向,而公共安全韧性作为城市系统的一种特性,强调城市风险治理效能和应急管理能力,其相较于一般城市公共安全管理更聚焦城市发展面临的新风险和新需求,是公共安全发展的新范式。城市公共安全韧性评估则指向城市安全治理中对风险环境的认识。如何评估城市公共安全韧性水平,本质上是韧性的认知问题。
因此,笔者遵从风险感知作为居民对城市面临风险的主观感受和认知的基本要义,将韧性聚焦到城市公共安全场域中,通过观测城市居民在面对客观风险时的担心度和相应行为选择,评估城市公共安全韧性水平,探究在难以抗拒的风险面前,城市如何抵御风险形成新的公共安全韧性治理模式。
随着社会进步和信息化发展,人类生存空间逐渐从二元空间向三元空间演进[12]。学界关于三元空间理论的关注与探讨已应用于政府管理[13]、国家治理[14]、城市建设[15]、情报学[16]等领域,而城市公共安全同样蕴含着趋向空间属性的治理范式。通常说的一元空间是指物理空间(Physical Space),由物理环境和各种物质组成,为生物生成和进化提供了物质基础,是居民在城市生活的基础保障,例如:以城市生命线工程系统为代表的公共场所、市政设施、应急设施安全等。二元空间是指社会空间(Social Space),即人类社会交往空间,发轫于家庭,随人类的变化而发展[17]。其本质上是居民在城市生活中的组织安全,例如人际关系、居住环境、社会保障等。三元空间指的是赛博空间(Cyber Space),即由计算机和互联网组成的“网络信息空间”,参与者们通过数据交换进行沟通[18]。城市信息空间安全指的则是大数据时代下,与城市发展息息相关的数据交互融合、互通共享安全,强调现代化信息技术赋能背景下的知识、数据、虚拟网络稳健运行。
文中以三元空间为理论基础,结合风险感知理论,构建城市公共安全“空间韧性”一体化理论模型,如图1所示。具体而言,物理空间安全韧性从系统承受力视角出发,强调通过采用提高城市硬件基础的结构性措施,发挥城市设施和生态环境固有的安全功能,来增强城市公共安全抵抗力和恢复力。一是按照平战结合原则,合理规划、建设、完善城市公共场所基础设施和应急设施建设,提高城市基础设施在灾害环境中承受、适应和快速恢复能力;二是当城市遭受干扰时,生态系统表现出更为强大的抵抗力与更加迅速的恢复力[19]。社会空间安全韧性从系统抗逆力视角出发,依靠社会结构力量建立城市公共安全韧性治理体系。一是需要稳定的社会环境来缓解社会矛盾;二是防止突发性社会治安事件对城市公共安全的影响;三是构建有力的医疗保障、救济保障、养老保障等社会安全韧性兜底机制应对风险。信息空间安全韧性指的是城市在面临不确定风险和突发事件时能有效维持信息系统正常运行的敏捷力。一方面,数据作为城市运行和管理的重要战略资源已经渗透到城市各个领域[20],数据安全关系着城市稳定;另一方面,每一个人在信息空间中都是信息传播节点,公众科学识别、获取、传递公共安全事件相关信息对于城市公共安全秩序至关重要。
城市公共安全“空间韧性”一体化模型强调系统组成要素的整体性,即城市公共安全韧性是物理空间韧性、社会空间韧性、信息空间韧性耦合的结果,只有三者协调发展才能实现韧性城市建设的目标。对于城市公共安全韧性而言,物理空间安全韧性是基础保障,社会空间安全韧性是关键环节,信息空间韧性是重要引擎。此三元空间韧性既相对独立又密不可分,任何一元空间韧性功能或作用的缺失都会对城市整体公共安全韧性造成影响。反之,某一空间安全韧性的提升则能够为其他空间韧性水平的增强创造有利条件,促进整体发展,提升总体城市公共安全韧性。
参考以往城市公共安全感、城市韧性评估、三元空间以及风险感知方面的研究,归纳梳理城市公共安全韧性评估指标。在评估指标初选环节中,根据上文构建的城市公共安全“空间韧性”一体化理论模型,对已有的城市公共安全韧性评估指标聚类和系统化,构建出二级指标;再将归类整理的二级指标划分成若干个子系统(三级指标),使得城市公共安全韧性的每一个部分和侧面都可以用具体的统计指标来描述。然后,将构建的评估指标体系以二级指标和三级指标打分表的形式交给7位城市公共安全领域的专家,专家根据自己的判断赋予分值(若专家认为有重要的评估指标未被列入,请专家列入并赋值),从而获得各指标权重,剔除分值很低的指标,并根据权重高低确定合理编排指标顺序,指向性地对指标体系进行修正。修正后最终形成城市公共安全韧性评估指标体系(表1)。
数据基础涵盖问卷调查与半结构化访谈2大板块,结合居民对城市公共安全的担忧程度与深度访谈资料,对城市公共安全韧性进行综合评估。其中,调查问卷主要以三级指标所对应具体问题的10点量表来测量居民对城市公共安全的担心程度。问卷调查选取江苏省南京市为调研地,采用多阶段随机抽样法,以城市辖区为普查层,从街道一级开始抽样,按照街道办事处、社区居委会、居民小区、居民楼、家户、被调查者的逻辑层次展开抽样。共发放问卷310份,回收有效问卷295份,有效率为95.16%(表2)。通过SPSS软件,对问卷数据做信度和效度检验,其中,克隆巴赫Alpha系数的绝对值为0.912,KMO值为0.898,表明量表信效度较好,收集的数据具有分析价值。
熵权法是通过指标所含信息量确定权重的一种较为客观的定权方法。指标所含的信息熵越小,指标所提供的信息量越大,即在综合指标中所占的权重越大。选取熵权法来确定城市公共安全韧性评估指标体系的权重。具体步骤如下:
1) 构建初始评估矩阵。假设有m份调查问卷,每份问卷由n个评估指标组成,建立城市公共安全韧性评估指标矩阵A:
A = ( a i j ) m × n = a 11 a 12 a 1 n a 21 a 22 a 2 n     a m 1 a m 2 a m n
式中 a i j为第i份调查问卷的第j项评估指标值,其中,i=1,2,…,m;j=1,2,…,n
2) 数据标准化。在评估指标体系中,由于不同指标性质存在差异,其值的量纲也不同,为了消除不同量纲带来的影响,需要标准化处理指标值。
对于正向指标,其标准化处理公式为:
a ' i j = a i j - m i n ( a i j ) m a x ( a i j ) - m i n ( a i j )
对于负向指标,其标准化处理公式为:
a ' i j = m a x ( a i j ) - a i j m a x ( a i j ) - m i n ( a i j )
式中 a ' i j为第i项调查问卷的第j项评估指标归一化值。
最终得出标准化的无量纲矩阵A'
A ' = ( a ' i j ) m × n = a ' 11 a ' 12 a ' 1 n a ' 21 a ' 22 a ' 2 n   a ' m 1 a ' m 2 a ' m n
3) 构建信息熵模型。信息熵值越大,该因子对城市公共安全韧性的贡献越小。
e j = - i = 1 m   p i j l n p i j l n m
p i j = a i j j = 1 m   a i j
d j = 1 - e j
式中: e j为评估指标j的信息熵值; p i j为第j项评估指标下,第i份问卷占该指标的比例,0≤ p i j≤1;dj为信息熵冗余度。
4) 计算评估指标的权重。
w j = d j j = 1 n   d j
式中 w j为评估指标的权重,且0≤ w j≤1。
5) 城市公共安全韧性评估得分。
S i j = w j a i j
式中 S i j为城市公共安全韧性评估得分。
城市三元空间安全韧性水平差异明显,呈非协调发展趋势。通过城市公共安全韧性评估模型,计算一级指标与二级指标的权重及综合得分,结果见表3。计算可知:南京市公共安全韧性总体得分为6.851 5。从一级指标得分来看,社会空间安全韧性得分最高,分数达到2.866 9,物理空间安全韧性均分最低,为1.869 0,二者相差0.997 9。其中,物理空间和信息空间安全的韧性水平偏低,有较大的改善空间。由此可见:城市三元空间安全韧性水平差异较大,不利于形成互联互通、互为支撑的城市公共安全韧性治理体系。
总体来看,南京市物理空间安全韧性水平在3个空间维度中最低,韧性指数得分仅为1.869 0(表4)。具体而言,公共场所突发事件与应急救援仍是南京市居民担心的主要方面。城市公共场所人员较为密集,尤其是娱乐场所、地铁车站、集贸市场等,一旦发生火灾、踩踏等突发事件,救援难度较大,将严重威胁人们的生命财产安全。从二级指标可以看出,基础设施和生态环境公共安全韧性指数均分在0.858 5~1.010 6之间,差异较小;在三级指标中,公共安全韧性指数得分在0.215 8~0.448 5之间,差异较大,其中A3得分最低,A2次之,A4得分最高。应急设施建设是应对突发事件的重要硬件支持,可以提供紧急救援、医疗救助等服务,同时,也可以为有效控制事态发展和维护社会稳定提供及时保障,是增强居民城市安全感的必要途径。
社会空间安全作为城市公共安全韧性的关键影响因素,同居民生活关联密切,安全稳定的社会空间能有效保障居民生活,维持城市公共安全韧性水平。目前,南京市社会空间公共安全韧性指数得分在3个空间维度中最高,得分为2.866 9(表5)。具体而言,社会空间安全内部存在弱项。从二级指标可以看出,社会环境、社会治安与社会保障公共安全韧性指数均分在0.606 2~1.313 0之间,其中社会环境韧性指数得分最低;在三级指标中,公共安全韧性指数得分在0.189 8~1.313 0之间,其中作为社会环境子维度指标的B3B2得分较低,与其他指标值差异较大。质言之,社区环境和个人家庭生活对城市公共安全具有重要影响。
信息空间安全作为二元空间拓展的新产物,是强化城市公共安全韧性的重要引擎。一方面,随着数字化政府、数字城市建设发展,数据安全问题得到广泛关注。由表6可知:二级指标中,数据安全得分较高。这与近几年我国政府对数据安全的重视程度增强、相关顶层制度设计不断优化密切相关。另一方面,信息传播得分较低,且其包括的C4指标在三级指标中得分最低,与其他指标值差距较大。这也说明随着科技发展,信息传播形式、途径、手段等都发生了转变,社会面临急剧转型,纷繁复杂的安全信息网络,对居民自身的信息识别、获取能力提出了挑战。不仅对居民自身信息处理能力提出要求,信息传播中也需要政府、媒体、社会各界等多方共同建立有效的信息传播机制,提高信息传播的效率和效果。
南京市三元空间安全协同发展程度存在阻碍的原因主要包括三元空间融合度不足和空间资源配置不合理2个方面。首先,南京市物理空间的规划建设存在未充分考虑社会和信息空间需求的情况。例如:受访居民表示“南京作为特大城市,地铁线路也有限,新街口、夫子庙等地经常拥堵。”这表明物理空间的规划未充分考虑社会空间中人们的出行需求和交通便捷性以及信息空间中交通信息获取、服务质量、数字风险等问题。其次,三元空间中公共安全治理资源分散,限制了协同发展的范围和效果。例如:一些老旧社区在物理空间规划中未得到充分保护与更新,“这边的房屋都比较老旧,无物业管理的户数应该是3 000户左右。”这同时也制约了信息技术资源的纳入,进而对该区域的信息预警和应急响应能力产生限制。
城市物理空间安全韧性提升离不开必要的技术和基础设施支持。由于财政限制、资源分配不均等原因,城市可能无法充分投入到公共场所基础设施的建设和维护中,导致城市物理空间安全相关韧性指数偏低。譬如社区居民L表示“一般情况下,社区只有在可能面临严重自然灾害的时候,上级部门才会提供一些物质保障,比如沙袋、雪铲之类。”在实地访谈中,公共场所保安W也曾提到“我们的一些设备都老化了,这块其实每年都跟集团反映,比如消防主机,虽说现在还没什么大问题,但当时属于进口设备,目前市场上没有配件。如果要全部更换的话,造价太高。”
社区作为城市社会空间安全韧性治理的基本单元,其公共安全感知可以分为个人生活和居住环境两个方面,二者共同影响城市居民的生活质量和社会满意度。访谈中,不少居民表示“社区存在无绳遛狗现象,威胁公共安全”。邻里关系也是居住环境评估中的重要因素。受访者W认为“相比之前,人与人之间关系变差了。邻里之间交流并不多,基本上没有往来。”此外,居住环境若存在安全隐患,同样影响居民社会空间安全风险感知。某受访者提到“鼓楼区普遍是老城区,道路狭窄,现有车辆数量比以往明显增多,部分地区的红绿灯设置也不是很好,所以存在交通安全隐患”。
从调查数据中不难看出,政府管理责任落实不力和居民信息安全意识不强、素养不匹配导致居民的安全素养总体上达不到城市公共信息安全的要求。从信息获取途径来看,城市居民大多是通过社交网络或媒体报道获取信息,例如:社区居民Y表示“一般是通过亲身见闻来了解一些公共安全事件,另一种是社交媒体途径。”从信息识别来看,还是存在部分公共安全事件信息真实性、可靠性难以识别的问题。社区居民Z先生表示“虽然绝大部分应该还是能分辨(安全信息)的,但总感觉不太能探究到它的真实性。”
城市公共安全韧性建设的目标是塑造“物感城市”和“人感城市”的统一体[21]。未来韧性城市建设需要深度嵌入人本理念,以人民诉求驱动城市公共安全韧性规划。以精细化“物感韧性”方式增强“人感韧性”,如可在楼栋醒目位置标明抗震等级、在防洪堤或地下车库标明防洪等级、在城市行洪通道处标明行洪能力等。以清晰化城市承灾载体韧性标准和能力的方式助力城市应急基础设施升级优化,进而提升城市物理空间安全韧性。
在三元空间深度交融的时代,提升城市公共安全韧性需着力于三元空间安全韧性的均衡和协同发展。加快城市更新进度,加大城镇危房改造和城市老旧燃气管道等的更新改造力度,提高城市物理空间安全韧性;推进完善覆盖4大类突发事件、跨地区统筹、跨部门协同的巨灾保险制度,完善多层次医疗保障体系,提高社会空间安全韧性;通过完善数据安全立法、防范信息安全风险、加大数据管控力度、提高社会信息保护意识等措施提高城市信息空间安全韧性。
“物感城市+人感城市”协同发展路径要求政府在建设韧性城市过程中加强政企协作、政社协同、政民互动,积极吸收科技企业、社会组织、公众等多元主体参与城市公共安全韧性建设。完善城市公共安全韧性共建共治机制,开放城市公共安全韧性规划参与渠道,引导社会力量参与公共安全风险普查、风险监测与预警、应急处置与救援、灾后恢复与重建。加快数字赋能,提升城市公共安全韧性科技支撑。加强宣传教育和培训,提高社会公共安全商数,以应急软实力建设赋能城市公共安全韧性。
1) 从居民感知视角出发,评估南京市公共安全韧性水平,发现南京市公共安全韧性总体得分为6.851 5。根据具体得分,社会空间安全韧性>信息空间安全韧性>物理空间安全韧性,城市公共安全韧性建设存在空间失衡问题。
2) 公共安全韧性治理整体性不足、基础建设与设备维护投入缺乏、社会环境风险监测体系不健全、居民信息安全意识与素养薄弱是城市公共安全韧性建设现存问题的重要症结点。
3) 城市公共安全韧性水平提升需要以人本化理念、精细化策略、系统化思维、多元化合作,贯彻城市公共安全韧性建设全过程、全领域。
4) 在城市三元空间安全韧性建设中,韧性水平达到最高是理想状态,为避免过度投入,还需要各地政府根据自身的财力和资源状况,合理制定城市韧性建设的目标和方案。
5) 需要指出的是,文中研究也存在一定局限性,主要以南京市为例,韧性水平没有与其他城市进行横向比较,未来还需探索多个城市之间的韧性水平差异,为各城市采取针对性政策和措施提供参考。
  • 国家社会科学基金资助(23ZDA117)
  • 国家社会科学基金资助(22AZD086)
  • 2023年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目资助(23YJC630173)
  • 江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX22_2475)
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2024年第34卷第9期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.1879
  • 接收时间:2024-02-25
  • 首发时间:2025-07-09
  • 出版时间:2024-09-28
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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-25
  • 修回日期:2024-05-20
基金
国家社会科学基金资助(23ZDA117)
国家社会科学基金资助(22AZD086)
2023年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目资助(23YJC630173)
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX22_2475)
作者信息
    中国矿业大学 公共管理学院,江苏 徐州 221116
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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