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Article(id=1149733274752299657, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149733267617788430, articleNumber=1003-3033(2024)12-0168-10, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0514, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1720540800000, receivedDateStr=2024-07-10, revisedDate=1726761600000, revisedDateStr=2024-09-20, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1752047373711, onlineDateStr=2025-07-09, pubDate=1735315200000, pubDateStr=2024-12-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1752047373711, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-09, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1752047373711, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1752047373711, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1149733267617788430, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2024', volume='34', issue='12', pageStart='1', pageEnd='228', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1752047372010, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1756361981736, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1167830052499628941, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149733267617788430, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1167830052499628942, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1149733267617788430, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=168, endPage=177, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149733275486302874, articleId=1149733274752299657, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Tourism safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas: a case study of Beijing, columnId=1149733270084042840, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Public safety, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To eliminate the impact of complexity and uncertainty of safety risks in mountainous scenic areas on operational safety，a risk assessment method for mountainous scenic areas was proposed. Firstly，risk factors in mountainous scenic areas were identified to develop a risk assessment index system including personnel，equipment and facilities，environment，and management. Then，FBN and AHP models were proposed to evaluate risk probabilities and losses. Moreover，an improved ALARP criterion was used to analyze the comprehensive safety risk of mountainous scenic areas. Finally，the performance and effectiveness of the risk assessment method were validated against safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas in Beijing. The results indicated that the BN-based risk assessment method for mountainous scenic areas effectively addressed the issue of complex risk factors and interdependent relationships between each level. The combination of BN and triangular fuzzy number can make full use of expert experience and avoid the subjectivity of expert opinions to a certain extent. The key risk factors in mountainous scenic areas were inadequate detection of dangerous amusement facilities，insufficient configuration or arrangement of forest fire prevention facilities，inadequate protective fencing for hazardous amusement projects，and rockfalls and landslides.

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为消除山岳型景区安全风险复杂性和不确定性对景区运营安全的影响，提出一种山岳型景区风险评估方法。首先，识别山岳型景区风险因素，从人员、设备设施、环境和管理4个方面，构建山岳型景区风险评估指标体系；然后，构建模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)模型评估风险概率，构建层次分析(AHP)模型评估风险损失，并提出一种改进的最低合理可行(ALARP)准则，评估山岳型景区综合安全风险；最后，以北京市山岳型景区的安全风险评估为例，验证该风险评估方法的科学性和有效性。研究结果表明：基于贝叶斯网络(BN)的山岳型景区风险评估方法，能够有效解决山岳型景区风险因素复杂且各个层级之间存在依赖关系的问题；BN与三角模糊数的结合，既能充分利用专家经验，又可在一定程度上避免专家意见的主观性；山岳型景区关键风险因素为危险游乐设施检测不到位、森林防火设施配置/设置不足、危险游乐项目防护围栏设置不到位、落石与山体滑坡等。

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刘 伟 (1985—)，男，安徽宁国人，博士，教授，主要从事安全科学与工程方面的研究。E-mail：。

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刘 伟 (1985—)，男，安徽宁国人，博士，教授，主要从事安全科学与工程方面的研究。E-mail：。

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刘 伟 (1985—)，男，安徽宁国人，博士，教授，主要从事安全科学与工程方面的研究。E-mail：。

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Industrial Construction: 1-12[2024-06-30]., articleTitle=Study on risk assessment method of earthquake disaster in grotto temple-taking Yungang Grottoes as an example, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1167742944271409476, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, awardId=52074303, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(52074303), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1167742941373145358, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1167742941377339663, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, companyId=1167742941373145358, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering，China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing，Beijing 100083，China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1167742941385728272, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, companyId=1167742941373145358, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院，北京 100083)]), AuthorCompany(id=1167742941436059921, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, xref=2, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1167742941440254226, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, companyId=1167742941436059921, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2 Sirui Zhiyuan Information Consulting (Beijing) Co.，Ltd.，Beijing 100006，China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1167742941448642835, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, companyId=1167742941436059921, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2 思睿致远信息咨询(北京) 有限公司，北京 100006)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1167742943298330932, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=BN topology structure for safety risk assessment of mountainous scenic areas, figureFileSmall=HiuX9ME6Lk3bf8bWGgnLjQ==, figureFileBig=j7WepDBGkU700zkI9DhPFw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1167742943357051189, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=CN, label=图1, caption=山岳型景区安全风险评估BN拓扑结构, figureFileSmall=HiuX9ME6Lk3bf8bWGgnLjQ==, figureFileBig=j7WepDBGkU700zkI9DhPFw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1167742943407382838, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Improved ALARP criteria based on safety risk classification, figureFileSmall=4dQqfwu+lbyQr7BfW1jNJA==, figureFileBig=CuCghYK92C6pQxGbRsIoag==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1167742943449325879, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=CN, label=图2, caption=安全风险等级划分改进ALARP准则, figureFileSmall=4dQqfwu+lbyQr7BfW1jNJA==, figureFileBig=CuCghYK92C6pQxGbRsIoag==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1167742943491268920, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=Positive reasoning of tourism safety risks in mountainous scenic areas, figureFileSmall=3CkJ2I5umCCDB/7zfXexqg==, figureFileBig=7Oueiy5d1w/Pw99Jpd9XvA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1167742943541600569, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=CN, label=图3, caption=山岳型景区旅游安全风险正向推理, figureFileSmall=3CkJ2I5umCCDB/7zfXexqg==, figureFileBig=7Oueiy5d1w/Pw99Jpd9XvA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1167742943587737914, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Sensitivity analysis, figureFileSmall=CppKX4k3JZwFgyQfQN72ZQ==, figureFileBig=zx0DVaEVWp14FcI99SY66A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1167742943646458171, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=CN, label=图4, caption=敏感性分析, figureFileSmall=CppKX4k3JZwFgyQfQN72ZQ==, figureFileBig=zx0DVaEVWp14FcI99SY66A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1167742943700984124, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Safety risk assessment index system for mountainous scenic areas

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
评估对象 维度 一级指标 二级指标 三级指标
山岳型景区旅游安全风险Q 人员不安全行为A1 人员不具备上岗条件B1 特种（设备）作业人员证失效Y1 特种设备作业人员证缺失或过期X1
特种作业操作证缺失或过期X2
其他从业资格证失效Y2 消防设施操作员证缺失或过期X3
水上救生员证缺失或过期X4
从业人员健康证缺失或过期X5
人员违规操作B2 用火不慎X6
不按规定路线游览X7
管理人员脱岗X8
设备设施不
安全状态A2		 安全设备设施配置/设置不足B3 安全防护欠缺Y3 危险游乐项目防护围栏设置不到位X9
施工现场未围挡X10
消防设备设施缺失Y4 建筑消防设施配置/设置不到位X11
森林防火设施配置/设置不足X12
医疗设备设施不全Y5 未设医务室X13
未配备医疗急救设施和常用医疗药品X14
设备设施可靠性低B4 消防设施失效Y6 消防设施损坏X15
灭火器超期使用X16
电气设施危险性大Y7 线头裸露X17
线路未穿管X18
电闸箱破损严重X19
监控设施存在缺陷Y8 监控探头数量不足X20
监控设施损坏X21
监控数据不具时效性X22
监控室无人员值班X23
安全标志设置不足B5 安全警示标志设置不到位Y9 危险区域未设安全警示牌X24
危险游乐项目未设注意事项说明牌X25
施工现场未设安全警示标志X26
消防安全标志缺失Y10 消防设施标志设置不到位X27
未设应急疏散图和疏散标志X28
设备设施安全检测存在缺陷B6 电气防火检测不达标Y11 变配电装置和低压配电线路检测不到位X29
照明装置和一般低压用电设备检测不到位X30
建筑消防设施检测不达标Y12 灭火设施检测不到位X31
疏散设施检测不到位X32
燃气设施检测不到位Y13 可燃气体报警控制器缺失或损坏X33
紧急切断阀缺失或损坏X34
危险游乐设施检测不足Y14 危险游乐设施未检测X35
安全检测机构不具备资质X36
特种设备检测不足Y15 无安全检验合格标志X37
未进行特种设备安全风险日管控和周排查X38
环境负面影响A3 建筑外部环境稳定性差B7 防火间距不足X39
防雷装置缺失或损坏X40
未进行房屋建筑安全评估X41
建筑内部环境危险性大B8 火灾荷载大X42
防火和防烟分区划分不合理X43
建（构）筑物耐火等级低Y16 建（构）筑物结构耐火等级低X44
装修材料耐火等级低X45
自然灾害危险性大B9 地震X46
落石与山体滑坡X47
强暴雨X48
管理的缺陷
A4		 安全生产规章
制度不健全B10		 安全生产教育培训
不到位Y17		 未制定教育培训计划X49
无安全生产教育培训记录X50
安全生产责任划
分不明Y18		 未明确岗位安全职责X51
未明确相关方安全职责X52
未明确安全管理机构与人员X53
安全生产综合管理
制度不健全Y19		 未健全安全生产例会制度X54
未落实安全生产事故报告和调查处理制度X55
未健全双重预防机制X56
建设项目安全设施“三同时”管理不到位X57
安全生产专项管理
制度不健全Y20		 未建立危险游乐项目安全管理制度X58
未建立劳动防护用品配备和管理制度X59
未建立燃气使用及管理制度X60
未建立反恐防暴应急防范管理制度X61
未建立消防、用电和食品安全管理制度X62
安全管理不
到位B11		 安全管理台账缺
失Y21		 未建立隐患排查治理台账X63
未建立特种作业管理台账X64
未建立特种设备台账X65
未建立消防设施台账X66
安全操作规程未
明确Y22		 未制定岗位安全操作规程X67
未制定大型游乐设施安全操作规程X68
日常管理
松散B12		 日常巡查不力
Y23		 游乐设施日常检查维修不到位X69
消防设施使用和维护保养不到位X70
安全出口堵塞X71
应急预案可靠
性低B13		 应急预案内容
不完整Y24		 未制定综合应急预案X72
未制定专项应急预案X73
未制定突发事件现场处置方案X74
应急演练不
规范Y25		 未制定应急演练方案X75
应急演练记录缺失X76
应急救援能力
不足Y26		 未配备应急救援队伍X77
未配备应急救援物资X78
运营管理存
在漏洞B14		 消防安全管
理疏漏Y27		 消防验收合格证缺失X79
开业检查合格证缺失X80
消防设施定期检查记录缺失X81
餐饮安全管理
疏漏Y28		 食品经营许可证缺失X82
无厨房排油烟系统清洗报告X83
其他安全管理
疏漏Y29		 无特种设备生产许可证X84
营业执照缺失或超期经营X85
无建设工程规划许可证X86
), ArticleFig(id=1167742943805841725, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

山岳型景区安全风险评估指标体系

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
评估对象 维度 一级指标 二级指标 三级指标
山岳型景区旅游安全风险Q 人员不安全行为A1 人员不具备上岗条件B1 特种（设备）作业人员证失效Y1 特种设备作业人员证缺失或过期X1
特种作业操作证缺失或过期X2
其他从业资格证失效Y2 消防设施操作员证缺失或过期X3
水上救生员证缺失或过期X4
从业人员健康证缺失或过期X5
人员违规操作B2 用火不慎X6
不按规定路线游览X7
管理人员脱岗X8
设备设施不
安全状态A2		 安全设备设施配置/设置不足B3 安全防护欠缺Y3 危险游乐项目防护围栏设置不到位X9
施工现场未围挡X10
消防设备设施缺失Y4 建筑消防设施配置/设置不到位X11
森林防火设施配置/设置不足X12
医疗设备设施不全Y5 未设医务室X13
未配备医疗急救设施和常用医疗药品X14
设备设施可靠性低B4 消防设施失效Y6 消防设施损坏X15
灭火器超期使用X16
电气设施危险性大Y7 线头裸露X17
线路未穿管X18
电闸箱破损严重X19
监控设施存在缺陷Y8 监控探头数量不足X20
监控设施损坏X21
监控数据不具时效性X22
监控室无人员值班X23
安全标志设置不足B5 安全警示标志设置不到位Y9 危险区域未设安全警示牌X24
危险游乐项目未设注意事项说明牌X25
施工现场未设安全警示标志X26
消防安全标志缺失Y10 消防设施标志设置不到位X27
未设应急疏散图和疏散标志X28
设备设施安全检测存在缺陷B6 电气防火检测不达标Y11 变配电装置和低压配电线路检测不到位X29
照明装置和一般低压用电设备检测不到位X30
建筑消防设施检测不达标Y12 灭火设施检测不到位X31
疏散设施检测不到位X32
燃气设施检测不到位Y13 可燃气体报警控制器缺失或损坏X33
紧急切断阀缺失或损坏X34
危险游乐设施检测不足Y14 危险游乐设施未检测X35
安全检测机构不具备资质X36
特种设备检测不足Y15 无安全检验合格标志X37
未进行特种设备安全风险日管控和周排查X38
环境负面影响A3 建筑外部环境稳定性差B7 防火间距不足X39
防雷装置缺失或损坏X40
未进行房屋建筑安全评估X41
建筑内部环境危险性大B8 火灾荷载大X42
防火和防烟分区划分不合理X43
建（构）筑物耐火等级低Y16 建（构）筑物结构耐火等级低X44
装修材料耐火等级低X45
自然灾害危险性大B9 地震X46
落石与山体滑坡X47
强暴雨X48
管理的缺陷
A4		 安全生产规章
制度不健全B10		 安全生产教育培训
不到位Y17		 未制定教育培训计划X49
无安全生产教育培训记录X50
安全生产责任划
分不明Y18		 未明确岗位安全职责X51
未明确相关方安全职责X52
未明确安全管理机构与人员X53
安全生产综合管理
制度不健全Y19		 未健全安全生产例会制度X54
未落实安全生产事故报告和调查处理制度X55
未健全双重预防机制X56
建设项目安全设施“三同时”管理不到位X57
安全生产专项管理
制度不健全Y20		 未建立危险游乐项目安全管理制度X58
未建立劳动防护用品配备和管理制度X59
未建立燃气使用及管理制度X60
未建立反恐防暴应急防范管理制度X61
未建立消防、用电和食品安全管理制度X62
安全管理不
到位B11		 安全管理台账缺
失Y21		 未建立隐患排查治理台账X63
未建立特种作业管理台账X64
未建立特种设备台账X65
未建立消防设施台账X66
安全操作规程未
明确Y22		 未制定岗位安全操作规程X67
未制定大型游乐设施安全操作规程X68
日常管理
松散B12		 日常巡查不力
Y23		 游乐设施日常检查维修不到位X69
消防设施使用和维护保养不到位X70
安全出口堵塞X71
应急预案可靠
性低B13		 应急预案内容
不完整Y24		 未制定综合应急预案X72
未制定专项应急预案X73
未制定突发事件现场处置方案X74
应急演练不
规范Y25		 未制定应急演练方案X75
应急演练记录缺失X76
应急救援能力
不足Y26		 未配备应急救援队伍X77
未配备应急救援物资X78
运营管理存
在漏洞B14		 消防安全管
理疏漏Y27		 消防验收合格证缺失X79
开业检查合格证缺失X80
消防设施定期检查记录缺失X81
餐饮安全管理
疏漏Y28		 食品经营许可证缺失X82
无厨房排油烟系统清洗报告X83
其他安全管理
疏漏Y29		 无特种设备生产许可证X84
营业执照缺失或超期经营X85
无建设工程规划许可证X86
), ArticleFig(id=1167742943872950590, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Natural language variables and probability expressions

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
自然语言变量 三角模糊数 概率范围/% 概率等级U
非常低VL (0，0，0.1) <1 1
低L (0，0.1，0.3) 1~10 2
偏低FL (0.1，0.3，0.5) 10~33 3
中等M (0.3，0.5，0.7) 33~66 4
偏高FH (0.5，0.7，0.9) 66~90 5
高H (0.7，0.9，1.0) 90~99 6
非常高VH (0.9，1.0，1.0) >99 7
), ArticleFig(id=1167742943927476543, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

自然语言变量及概率表述

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
自然语言变量 三角模糊数 概率范围/% 概率等级U
非常低VL (0，0，0.1) <1 1
低L (0，0.1，0.3) 1~10 2
偏低FL (0.1，0.3，0.5) 10~33 3
中等M (0.3，0.5，0.7) 33~66 4
偏高FH (0.5，0.7，0.9) 66~90 5
高H (0.7，0.9，1.0) 90~99 6
非常高VH (0.9，1.0，1.0) >99 7
), ArticleFig(id=1167742943990391104, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Expert information and weight

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
编号 专家来源 教育
背景		 从业年
限/a		 权重
αk
1 景区等级复核专家 博士 15 0.212 1
2 高校安全工程专业教授 博士 12 0.212 1
3 高校安全工程专业教授 博士 8 0.181 8
4 政府旅游相关部门人员 硕士 6 0.151 5
5 风险评估机构人员 硕士 <5 0.121 2
6 风险评估机构人员 硕士 <5 0.121 2
), ArticleFig(id=1167742944032334145, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

专家信息及权重

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
编号 专家来源 教育
背景		 从业年
限/a		 权重
αk
1 景区等级复核专家 博士 15 0.212 1
2 高校安全工程专业教授 博士 12 0.212 1
3 高校安全工程专业教授 博士 8 0.181 8
4 政府旅游相关部门人员 硕士 6 0.151 5
5 风险评估机构人员 硕士 <5 0.121 2
6 风险评估机构人员 硕士 <5 0.121 2
), ArticleFig(id=1167742944091054402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Prior probability calculation of root node X6

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
节点
状态		 专家意见 P ~ i j FPS FFR
1 2 3 4 5 6
no FH FH H H FH FH (0.567，
0.767，
0.933)		 0.758 0.027
(0.5，0.7，
0.9)		 (0.5，0.7，
0.9)		 (0.7，
0.9，1)		 (0.7，
0.9，1)		 (0.5，0.7，
0.9)		 (0.5，0.7，
0.9)
), ArticleFig(id=1167742944153968963, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1149733274752299657, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

根节点X6的先验概率计算

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
节点
状态		 专家意见 P ~ i j FPS FFR
1 2 3 4 5 6
no FH FH H H FH FH (0.567，
0.767，
0.933)		 0.758 0.027
(0.5，0.7，
0.9)		 (0.5，0.7，
0.9)		 (0.7，
0.9，1)		 (0.7，
0.9，1)		 (0.5，0.7，
0.9)		 (0.5，0.7，
0.9)
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山岳型景区旅游安全风险评估：以北京市为例
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刘伟 1 , 代萍 1 , 赵方雷 2 , 崔可欣 2
中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全 2024,34(12): 168-177
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中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全 2024, 34(12): 168-177
山岳型景区旅游安全风险评估：以北京市为例
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刘伟1 , 代萍1, 赵方雷2, 崔可欣2
作者信息
  • 1 中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院，北京 100083
  • 2 思睿致远信息咨询(北京) 有限公司，北京 100006

    • 刘 伟 (1985—)，男，安徽宁国人，博士，教授，主要从事安全科学与工程方面的研究。E-mail：。

Tourism safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas: a case study of Beijing
Wei LIU1 , Ping DAI1, Fanglei ZHAO2, Kexin CUI2
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering，China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing，Beijing 100083，China
  • 2 Sirui Zhiyuan Information Consulting (Beijing) Co.，Ltd.，Beijing 100006，China
出版时间: 2024-12-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0514
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摘要
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为消除山岳型景区安全风险复杂性和不确定性对景区运营安全的影响，提出一种山岳型景区风险评估方法。首先，识别山岳型景区风险因素，从人员、设备设施、环境和管理4个方面，构建山岳型景区风险评估指标体系；然后，构建模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)模型评估风险概率，构建层次分析(AHP)模型评估风险损失，并提出一种改进的最低合理可行(ALARP)准则，评估山岳型景区综合安全风险；最后，以北京市山岳型景区的安全风险评估为例，验证该风险评估方法的科学性和有效性。研究结果表明：基于贝叶斯网络(BN)的山岳型景区风险评估方法，能够有效解决山岳型景区风险因素复杂且各个层级之间存在依赖关系的问题；BN与三角模糊数的结合，既能充分利用专家经验，又可在一定程度上避免专家意见的主观性；山岳型景区关键风险因素为危险游乐设施检测不到位、森林防火设施配置/设置不足、危险游乐项目防护围栏设置不到位、落石与山体滑坡等。

山岳型景区  /  安全风险评估  /  指标体系  /  模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)  /  层次分析(AHP)  /  最低合理可行准则(ALARP)

To eliminate the impact of complexity and uncertainty of safety risks in mountainous scenic areas on operational safety，a risk assessment method for mountainous scenic areas was proposed. Firstly，risk factors in mountainous scenic areas were identified to develop a risk assessment index system including personnel，equipment and facilities，environment，and management. Then，FBN and AHP models were proposed to evaluate risk probabilities and losses. Moreover，an improved ALARP criterion was used to analyze the comprehensive safety risk of mountainous scenic areas. Finally，the performance and effectiveness of the risk assessment method were validated against safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas in Beijing. The results indicated that the BN-based risk assessment method for mountainous scenic areas effectively addressed the issue of complex risk factors and interdependent relationships between each level. The combination of BN and triangular fuzzy number can make full use of expert experience and avoid the subjectivity of expert opinions to a certain extent. The key risk factors in mountainous scenic areas were inadequate detection of dangerous amusement facilities，insufficient configuration or arrangement of forest fire prevention facilities，inadequate protective fencing for hazardous amusement projects，and rockfalls and landslides.

mountainous scenic areas  /  safety risk assessment  /  index system  /  fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN)  /  analytic hierarchy process (AHP)  /  as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)
刘伟, 代萍, 赵方雷, 崔可欣. 山岳型景区旅游安全风险评估：以北京市为例. 中国安全科学学报, 2024 , 34 (12) : 168 -177 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0514
Wei LIU, Ping DAI, Fanglei ZHAO, Kexin CUI. Tourism safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas: a case study of Beijing[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (12) : 168 -177 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0514
正文
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0 引言
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山岳型景区是以山体地貌为主要观赏对象和游览内容[1]，为旅游者提供观光、探险等旅游活动的场所，具有风险点多面广，各类风险隐患交织叠加、交叉耦合，事故链复杂多变的特点，安全管理难度大。开展山岳型景区安全风险评估，对于预防旅游安全事故，保证景区安全运营，具有重要的意义。
目前，学者们对景区安全展开了研究，BENTLEY等[2]分析了新西兰探险旅游行业10年的旅游安全事故，发现登山运动事故发生的概率较大。林爱平[3]构建了山岳型景区山洪灾害风险层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP)模型，评估了山洪风险等级。王辉[4]通过统计历史事故数据，研究了影响泰山旅游安全的主要因素并提出对策。邹永广等[5]基于AHP模型，量化评估了景区安全风险。罗振军等[6]提出景区安全容量测算方法，利用AHP模型评价景区事故风险管控能力。黄佳杰等[7]基于扎根理论，分析了山地旅游安全事故致因。方雪等[8]基于扎根理论，研究了导致国内漂流安全事故的人员、设备、环境和管理风险。现有研究还存在一些不足，①局限于山岳型景区单一事故风险评估，缺乏对整体风险状况的掌握；②在山岳型景区安全风险因素识别上缺乏系统性，风险评估指标体系尚不完善；③当山岳型景区安全风险因素较多或相互关系较为复杂时，上述风险评估方法可能存在不适用或效果不佳的问题。
鉴于此，笔者拟提出一种山岳型景区风险评估方法，构建山岳型景区安全风险评估指标体系，在此基础上创新性引入贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network，BN)，构建山岳型景区安全风险评估模糊BN(Fuzzy BN，FBN)模型评估风险概率，构建AHP模型评估风险损失，并改进最低合理可行(As Low As Reasonably Practicable，ALARP)准则，评估山岳型景区安全风险等级。通过实例分析，验证该风险评估方法的科学性和有效性，以期为山岳型景区安全风险评估与管理提供参考。
1 构建山岳型景区安全风险评估指标体系
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分析山岳型景区部分安全事故案例，参考《旅游区(点)质量等级的划分与评定》[9]，识别山岳型景区风险因素，并将其划分为人员不安全行为、设备设施不安全状态、环境负面影响和管理的缺陷4个维度。基于此，构建山岳型景区安全风险评估指标体系(表1)。该指标体系含14个一级安全风险因素指标，29个二级安全风险因素指标，86个三级安全风险因素指标。
2 构建山岳型景区安全风险评估模型
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2.1 构建FBN模型
2.1.1 BN拓扑结构
将表1中三级指标X1~X86作为BN根节点，A1~A4、B1~B14和Y1~Y29作为BN中间节点，Q作为BN叶节点，利用GeNIe软件构建山岳型景区旅游安全风险评估BN拓扑结构(图1)。通过BN正向推理评估山岳型景区安全风险概率，逆向推理得到各指标后验概率，识别对山岳型景区安全和保障至关重要的网络薄弱环节[10-11]，通过敏感性分析估算各评价指标对山岳型景区旅游安全风险影响程度[12]。
设φ是Q的样本空间，Z1，Z2，…，Zr为Q的一组完备事件，且 ∪ i = 1 r Z i = φ(i=1，2，…，r)，P(Q)>0，则：
P ( Z i | Q ) = P ( Q Z i ) P ( Z i ) P ( Q ) = P ( Q | Z i ) P ( Z i ) ∑ i = 1 r P ( Q Z i ) P ( Z i )
式中：i为BN父节点编号；r为BN父节点数目；P(Q)为山岳型景区安全风险概率；P(Zi)为父节点Zi的先验概率；P(Zi|Q)为父节点Zi的后验概率；P(Q|Zi)为父节点Zi失效条件下子节点Q的失效概率。
2.1.2 FBN模型
由于传统BN依赖大量精确数据，而山岳型景区相关数据匮乏。为此，融合多领域专家经验，运用模糊概率表达不确定性，计算根节点先验概率，构建FBN模型，优化分析[13]。由于三角模糊数线性分布和容易理解[14]，采用三角模糊数表示BN根节点状态概率。依据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC)概率表述[15]，引入7级自然语言变量描述BN根节点失效可能性(表2)。
对专家意见作加权处理，以反映其专业性和经验差异(表3)。
将BN节点状态j设置为“yes”和“no”，针对不同节点分别表示安全和失效、好和坏等不同含义。结合专家权重值αk(k为专家编号)，将第k位专家对i节点处于j状态的自然语言描述对应的三角模糊数 P i j k转换为模糊专家意见聚合结果 P ~ i j，采用均值面积法计算模糊可能性值(Fuzzy Possibility Score，FPS)[16]，根据ONISAWA[17]提出的公式将FPS转化为模糊失效概率(Field Failure Rate，FFR)，即BN根节点先验概率：
F F R = 1 10 R F P S ≠ 0 0 F P S = 0
式中R为系数， R = 2.301 × 1 - F P S F P S 1 / 3。
2.2 构建AHP模型
以表1中Q为目标层，A1~A4为准则层，B1~B14、Y1~Y29为要素层，X1~X86为指标层，构建AHP模型，评估山岳型景区安全风险损失，步骤如下：
1) 计算指标权重向量W。由于3标度理论较传统9标度理论，具有构建过程简单、评价主观性和模糊性降低、计算量少等优点[18]，邀请专家运用3标度法评估AHP模型中各层级指标重要度，构建两两比较判断矩阵，计算矩阵最大特征值λmax和特征向量W并进行随机一致性检验。当一致性比率(Consistency Ratio，CR)小于0.1时，构造的判断矩阵满足一致性要求，对应的特征向量即为评价指标体系的权重向量。
2) 构建隶属度矩阵K。参照《在用电梯安全风险评估规范》[19]，划分山岳型景区安全风险损失等级V={可忽略[1]，低[2]，中[3]，高[4]}。利用专家打分法构建隶属度矩阵K，反映各个评价指标在不同风险损失等级上的可能性。
3) 安全风险损失评估。模糊综合评价向量L=W×K，根据最大隶属度原则确定山岳型景区安全风险损失等级。
2.3 综合安全风险评估
引入ALARP准则，并在风险划分中增加“极度危险区”，将山岳型景区旅游安全风险划为极度危险区、不可接受区、ALARP区和可忽略区。按照风险指数F=U×V(U为风险概率等级)，将山岳型景区安全风险等级由高到低划分为Ⅰ级、Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级和Ⅳ级(图2)。
3 安全风险评估实例验证
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3.1 山岳型景区安全风险评估案例概况
以北京市怀柔区某山岳型景区安全风险评估为例，验证上述风险评估方法的科学性和有效性。该景区近年来引入玻璃水划、飞天魔毯、步步惊心、空中自行车、空中飞船等高风险娱乐项目，经现场考察发现该景区存在的风险包括：①步步惊心项目缺少安全验收报告，出具飞天魔毯安全验收报告的机构不具备权威资质，不符合“三同时”管理要求。②双重预防机制不健全，隐患排查治理不到位，如玻璃水划两侧防护栏高度不够，存在人员侧翻风险；空中自行车起点等危险区域未设防护围栏，存在人员高处坠落风险；灭火器设置和维护保养不到位，可靠性低，存在灭火器过期和随意摆放现象；施工现场安全监管不到位，管理人员脱岗，地面遗留大量烟头，森林火灾风险较大。③建筑缺少火灾自动报警系统，存在电气线路未穿管、线头裸露现象。④监控探头数量不足，无法实时掌握游客安全状况。
3.2 山岳型景区旅游安全风险评估
3.2.1 风险概率评估
1) 计算BN根节点先验概率。由于篇幅有限，仅展示根节点“用火不慎X6”的先验概率计算过程(表4)。其中，节点状态“no”表示存在用火不慎的状况，即处于不安全状态。
2) 计算BN中间节点条件概率。以BN中间节点安全防护欠缺Y3条件概率计算为例，由于节点Y3与其父节点危险游乐项目防护围栏设置不到位X9、施工现场未围挡X10的逻辑关系为“或”门，则节点Y3的条件概率为：P(Y3=no)=P(X9=yes)P(X10=no)+P(X9=no)P(X10=yes)+P(X9=no)P(X10=no)=0.072，P(Y3=yes)=1-P(Y3=no)=1-0.072=0.928。在构建的BN拓扑结构中输入根节点先验概率和中间节点条件概率，建立FBN模型，进行模型正向推理(图3)。可见，在当前运行状态下，该景区旅游安全风险概率为76%，风险概率等级U为5级，风险可能性较高。
3.2.2 关键风险因素识别
1) 逆向推理。将目标节点Q的no状态概率设置为100%，模型逆向推理得出根节点处于“最差状态”的概率。结果表明：未健全双重预防机制X56、危险游乐设施未检测X35、建设项目安全设施“三同时”管理不到位X57、森林防火设施配置/设置不足X12、危险游乐项目防护围栏设置不到位X9、建筑消防设施配置/设置不到位X11、落石与山体滑坡X47和未制定大型游乐设施安全操作规程X68是最可能导致该景区发生安全事件的风险因素组合。据此，应重点关注这些风险因素，制定针对性改进措施和管理策略。
2) 敏感性分析。分别将A2和A4节点设置为“Target”并进行敏感性分析，计算出部分节点灵敏度值(图4)。可知：对节点A2影响最大的风险因素为危险游乐设施未检测X35和森林防火设施配置/设置不足X12。同理，与同层级指标相比，未健全双重预防机制X56和建设项目安全设施“三同时”管理不到位X57对A4的影响最大。据此，采取措施改进这些敏感因素，能够提高该景区安全风险控制效率和效果。
3.2.3 风险损失评估
以AHP模型准则层A1、A2、A3和A4指标权重计算为例，利用3标度法两两比较，得到比较矩阵Cmn。
C m n = 1 0 2 0   2 1 2 1   0 0 1 0   2 1 2 1
式中：m和n为矩阵Cmn行列编号；标度值0表示指标Am没有An重要，1表示指标Am和An一样重要，2表示指标Am比An重要[20]。
计算重要性排序指数 h m = ∑ n = 1 4 C m n，将初始比较矩阵转化为判断矩阵E:
a u v = h m 1 - h m 2 h m a x - h m i n ( a s - 1 ) + 1 ， h m 1 ≥ h m 2 1 ， h m 1 = h m 2 h m 1 - h m 2 h m a x - h m i n ( a s - 1 ) + 1 - 1 ， h m 1 < h m 2
式中：ɑuv为判断矩阵E的元素； h m 1、 h m 2表示矩阵Cmn各行元素之和，矩阵Cmn各行元素之和最大值hmax=max{hm}=h4=7，最小值hmin=min{hm}=h3=1;指数ɑs=hmax/hmin=7。
E = a 11 a 1 v   a u 1 a u v = 1 1 / 4 3 1 / 4   4 1 6 1   1 / 3 1 / 6 1 1 / 6   4 1 6 1
计算判断矩阵最大特征值λmax为4.06，一致性指标(Consistency Index，CI)为0.02，查表得当n=4时，随机一致性指标(Random Index，RI)为0.9，则CR=0.02<0.1，符合一致性检验要求，计算特征向量并归一化处理得权重向量W。
W = 0.122，0.410，0.057，0.410 T
运用上述方法，计算各层级指标权重向量。邀请专家组填写调查问卷，评价各指标属于不同风险损失等级的程度，通过多层模糊综合评价后，得到隶属度矩阵K。
K = 0 0.314 0.468 0.218   0 0.268 0.298 0.434   0 0.464 0.331 0.205   0 0.416 0.450 0.134
模糊评价向量L=(0，0.345，0.383，0.271)，即山岳型景区安全风险损失等级为中等(3级)的可能性最大。
3.2.4 综合安全风险等级评估
综合风险概率和风险损失评估结果，应用改进的ALARP准则，该山岳型景区旅游安全风险等级评定为Ⅱ级，风险不可接受。在北京市旅游景区质量等级复核工作中，该景区复核结果为限期整改，安全问题突出，评估结果与实际情况一致。
4 结论
收起
1) 提出的基于BN的山岳型景区安全风险评估方法，利用BN模型推理优势，评估出北京市某山岳型景区的风险概率为76%，风险损失等级为中等，风险指数为15，综合安全风险等级为Ⅱ级，风险水平不可接受，评估结果与实际情况一致，证明方法具有一定的科学性和有效性。
2) 山岳型景区旅游安全关键风险因素为危险游乐设施检测不到位、森林防火设施配置、设置不足、危险游乐项目防护围栏设置不到位、落石与山体滑坡等。
3) 采用专家调查法获取的风险数据受到专家个人主观意识的影响，存在一定误差。在后续研究中，可通过大数据分析收集山岳型景区更多现场数据，提升模型参数估计精度，进而提高风险评估的准确性。
基金
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  • 国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(52074303)
文献
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2024年第34卷第12期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.12.0514
  • 接收时间：2024-07-10
  • 首发时间：2025-07-09
  • 出版时间：2024-12-28
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  • 收稿日期：2024-07-10
  • 修回日期：2024-09-20
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(52074303)
作者信息
    1 中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院，北京 100083
    2 思睿致远信息咨询(北京) 有限公司，北京 100006
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
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