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Article(id=1148106705164038704, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106697601704181, articleNumber=1003-3033(2025)01-0209-07, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.01.1536, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1723305600000, receivedDateStr=2024-08-11, revisedDate=1728662400000, revisedDateStr=2024-10-12, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1751659569302, onlineDateStr=2025-07-05, pubDate=1737993600000, pubDateStr=2025-01-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1751659569302, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-05, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1751659569302, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1751659569302, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1148106697601704181, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1751659567499, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1757401533944, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1172190250475573883, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106697601704181, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1172190250475573884, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106697601704181, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=209, endPage=215, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149757469422957348, articleId=1148106705164038704, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Failure causes of emergency response in oil and gas pipeline accidents and social network analysis, columnId=1149733268699918866, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Emergency technology and management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To avoid worsening the consequences of oil and gas pipeline accidents due to emergency failures，the causes of emergency failure in 27 accidents at home and abroad were analyzed using the HFACS model. Based on the results of grounded theory (GT) statistical coding analysis，a classification model of failure causes of emergency response in oil and gas pipeline accidents was proposed. SNA was used to develop the relationship network of the causes of emergency failures in oil and gas pipeline accidents. The core-periphery，centrality，and association direction index analyses were used to identify core factors and factors with high association and strong mediating roles in the classification model of the causes of emergency failures in oil and gas pipeline accidents. The results indicated that the classification model of emergency failure causes in oil and gas pipeline accidents was divided into five levels: government and emergency department factors，operator organizational factors，operator unsafe supervision，preconditions for unsafe behavior of on-site personnel，and unsafe behavior of on-site personnel. The emergency failure causes were further divided into 16 bottom-level factors，among which there were 9 core factors: inadequate safety supervision by government and emergency departments，ineffective emergency rescue，regulations defects，insufficient supervision by pipeline operators，technical environment，and skill errors. Skill errors，regulations or procedure defects，technical environment，and insufficient supervision by operators were highly associated factors. Moreover，pipeline operators' regulation defects，procedure defects，technical environment，insufficient supervision，improper resource management，and decision-making errors were strong mediating factors.

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为避免因应急失效导致油气管道事故后果加重的问题，基于人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)模型，分析国内外27起油气管道事故中的应急失效原因。依据扎根理论(GT)统计编码分析结果，得到油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型；应用社会网络分析(SNA)方法构建油气管道事故应急失效原因关系网络，利用核心-边缘分析、中心性分析和关联方向指数分析识别油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型中的核心因素及具有高关联性和强媒介作用的因素。研究结果表明：油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型包含政府及应急部门因素、运营商组织因素、运营商不安全监督、现场人员不安全行为的前提条件、现场人员的不安全行为5个层次。应急失效原因细分为16个最底层因素，其中，政府及应急部门安全监管不到位、应急救援不力、制度漏洞、管道运营商监督不充分、技术环境、技能失误等9个因素属于核心因素；技能失误、制度漏洞、技术环境、运营商监督不充分为高关联度因素；管道运营商的制度漏洞、程序漏洞、技术环境、监督不充分、资源管理不当和决策失误为强媒介因素。

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宫运华 (1983—)，女，河北邢台人，博士，讲师，主要从事安全管理、行为安全、安全文化、安全领导力等方面的研究。E-mail：。

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宫运华 (1983—)，女，河北邢台人，博士，讲师，主要从事安全管理、行为安全、安全文化、安全领导力等方面的研究。E-mail：。

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宫运华 (1983—)，女，河北邢台人，博士，讲师，主要从事安全管理、行为安全、安全文化、安全领导力等方面的研究。E-mail：。

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Association of causes and intervention countermeasures of electric shock accidents based on HFACS[J]. Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science, 2019, 16(2): 36-41,48., articleTitle=Association of causes and intervention countermeasures of electric shock accidents based on HFACS, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1172170766117360462, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2021, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=86, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[13], rfOrder=19, authorNames=XU Ruihua, LUO Fan, CHEN Gaoming, journalName=International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, refType=null, unstructuredReference=XU Ruihua, LUO Fan, CHEN Gaoming, et al. Application of HFACS and grounded theory for identifying risk factors of air traffic controllers' unsafe acts[J]. 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Network analysis on causes for serious traffic accidents based on text mining[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(9): 150-156., articleTitle=Network analysis on causes for serious traffic accidents based on text mining, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1172170766612288341, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=20, issue=4, pageStart=1284, pageEnd=1290, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[18], rfOrder=26, authorNames=李珏, 王幼芳, journalName=安全与环境学报, refType=null, unstructuredReference=李珏, 王幼芳. 基于文本挖掘的建筑施工高处坠落事故致因网络分析[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2020, 20(4): 1284-1290., articleTitle=基于文本挖掘的建筑施工高处坠落事故致因网络分析, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1172170766679397206, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=20, issue=4, pageStart=1284, pageEnd=1290, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[18], rfOrder=27, authorNames=LI Jue, WANG Youfang, journalName=Journal of Safety and Environment, refType=null, unstructuredReference=LI Jue, WANG Youfang. Causation network analysis of the construction falling or collapsing accidents based on the text mining[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2020, 20(4): 1284-1290., articleTitle=Causation network analysis of the construction falling or collapsing accidents based on the text mining, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1172170764653548346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, awardId=2462022YXZZ001, language=CN, fundingSource=中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助(2462022YXZZ001), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1172170761184858891, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, xref=1, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1172170761193247500, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, companyId=1172170761184858891, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1 School of Safety and Ocean Engineering，China University of Petroleum，Beijing 102249，China), 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language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Emergency failure causal factors network of oil and gas pipeline accidents, figureFileSmall=7FmbkSUkBGFgKLsWDbw4Ug==, figureFileBig=kVgAeXh0aLcvHSQvoimGag==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172170763420422955, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=CN, label=图2, caption=油气管道事故应急失效原因网络, figureFileSmall=7FmbkSUkBGFgKLsWDbw4Ug==, figureFileBig=kVgAeXh0aLcvHSQvoimGag==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172170763487531820, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=Degree centrality analysis of accident emergency response failure causal factors, figureFileSmall=dvgBk4PRwfdRXXxpOwwoAA==, figureFileBig=5Qyjhpw2qPTPXdHHcxHqUA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172170763567223597, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=CN, label=图3, caption=事故应急失效原因因素度数中心性分析结果, figureFileSmall=dvgBk4PRwfdRXXxpOwwoAA==, figureFileBig=5Qyjhpw2qPTPXdHHcxHqUA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172170763642721070, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Intermediate centrality analysis of accident emergency response failure factors, figureFileSmall=S5L9X3Gup+ixRo3fR+SLDw==, figureFileBig=jruc9Cu47ey5//kz/T51Lg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172170763709829935, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=CN, label=图4, caption=事故应急失效原因因素网络中间中心性, figureFileSmall=S5L9X3Gup+ixRo3fR+SLDw==, figureFileBig=jruc9Cu47ey5//kz/T51Lg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172170763776938800, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=EN, label=Fig.5, caption=Correlation direction index analysis of emergency failure causal factors, figureFileSmall=UFQ/UhX9e+8kfhIUCJ21hA==, figureFileBig=5GvG5VcdAYL8XH98Kp+IzA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172170763835659057, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=CN, label=图5, caption=事故应急失效原因因素关联方向指数分析结果, figureFileSmall=UFQ/UhX9e+8kfhIUCJ21hA==, figureFileBig=5GvG5VcdAYL8XH98Kp+IzA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1172170763906962226, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

27 accident cases

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份 国家 事故
1994 加拿大 萨斯喀彻温省FootHills公司天然气管道破裂事故
1995 加拿大 曼尼托巴省TransCanada公司天然气管道破裂事故
1996 加拿大 曼尼托巴省TransCanada公司天然气管道破裂事故
2000 加拿大 不列颠哥伦比亚省West Coast公司天然气管道破裂事故
2000 加拿大 魁北克省Gazoduc TQM公司天然气泄漏爆炸事故
2001 加拿大 阿尔伯特省Enbridge公司原油管道破裂事故
2001 加拿大 安大略省Enbridge公司原油管道破裂事故
2002 加拿大 魁北克省Trans-Northern公司成品油管道破裂事故
2002 加拿大 曼尼托巴省TransCanada天然气管道破裂事故
2004 美国 堪萨斯州Magellan公司泄漏事故
2005 加拿大 不列颠哥伦比亚省Terason公司原油管道破裂事故
2007 加拿大 不列颠哥伦比亚省Trans Mountain公司原油管道破裂事故
2007 美国 密西西比州Dixie管道公司危险液体管道破裂事故
2008 美国 宾夕法尼亚州Dominion Peoples公司天然气管道破裂事故
2009 美国 佛罗里达州GasTransport公司天然气管道破裂泄漏事故
2010 美国 密歇根州Enbridge公司危险液体管道破裂泄漏事故
2010 美国 萨伊利诺伊州Enbridge公司输油管道泄漏事故
2011 加拿大 安大略省TransCanada公司天然气管道爆炸起火事故
2011 加拿大 阿尔伯特省Plains公司NPS20管道泄漏事故
2012 加拿大 不列颠哥伦比亚省West Coast公司天然气管道破裂事故
2012 美国 西弗吉尼亚州Columbia输气公司天然气管道破裂事故
2013 中国 山东青岛“11·22”中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故
2014 中国 辽宁大连“6·30”新大原油管道破坏泄漏事故
2016 美国 内布拉斯加州Magellan管道无水氨泄漏事故
2017 加拿大 南达科他州TransCanada公司管道破裂事故
2018 美国 得克萨斯州Atmos能源公司天然气爆炸事故
2019 美国 加利福尼亚州Pacific Gas & Electric公司管道爆炸事故
), ArticleFig(id=1172170763995042611, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

27起事故案例

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份 国家 事故
1994 加拿大 萨斯喀彻温省FootHills公司天然气管道破裂事故
1995 加拿大 曼尼托巴省TransCanada公司天然气管道破裂事故
1996 加拿大 曼尼托巴省TransCanada公司天然气管道破裂事故
2000 加拿大 不列颠哥伦比亚省West Coast公司天然气管道破裂事故
2000 加拿大 魁北克省Gazoduc TQM公司天然气泄漏爆炸事故
2001 加拿大 阿尔伯特省Enbridge公司原油管道破裂事故
2001 加拿大 安大略省Enbridge公司原油管道破裂事故
2002 加拿大 魁北克省Trans-Northern公司成品油管道破裂事故
2002 加拿大 曼尼托巴省TransCanada天然气管道破裂事故
2004 美国 堪萨斯州Magellan公司泄漏事故
2005 加拿大 不列颠哥伦比亚省Terason公司原油管道破裂事故
2007 加拿大 不列颠哥伦比亚省Trans Mountain公司原油管道破裂事故
2007 美国 密西西比州Dixie管道公司危险液体管道破裂事故
2008 美国 宾夕法尼亚州Dominion Peoples公司天然气管道破裂事故
2009 美国 佛罗里达州GasTransport公司天然气管道破裂泄漏事故
2010 美国 密歇根州Enbridge公司危险液体管道破裂泄漏事故
2010 美国 萨伊利诺伊州Enbridge公司输油管道泄漏事故
2011 加拿大 安大略省TransCanada公司天然气管道爆炸起火事故
2011 加拿大 阿尔伯特省Plains公司NPS20管道泄漏事故
2012 加拿大 不列颠哥伦比亚省West Coast公司天然气管道破裂事故
2012 美国 西弗吉尼亚州Columbia输气公司天然气管道破裂事故
2013 中国 山东青岛“11·22”中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故
2014 中国 辽宁大连“6·30”新大原油管道破坏泄漏事故
2016 美国 内布拉斯加州Magellan管道无水氨泄漏事故
2017 加拿大 南达科他州TransCanada公司管道破裂事故
2018 美国 得克萨斯州Atmos能源公司天然气爆炸事故
2019 美国 加利福尼亚州Pacific Gas & Electric公司管道爆炸事故
), ArticleFig(id=1172170764074734388, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

GT-based coding of accident emergency failure cause factors

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
选择式
编码		 主轴式编码 开放式编码 频数 占比/
%
政府及应
急部门
因素		 安全监管
不到位		 督促企业落实应急预案不力；未及时发现现场人员的违章 4 14.81
相关规定
有缺陷		 应急法规存在缺陷；建设规划不合理；缺乏不同部门间的明确协议 3 11.11
应急救援
不力		 未及时通知和疏散群众；指挥协调应急救援不力；事故风险研判失误 4 14.81
运营商组
织因素		 不良的组
织氛围		 对应急救援工作重视不够 4 14.81
资源管
理不当		 应急资源配置存在缺陷 5 18.52
组织程序
规章漏洞		 程序漏洞 12 44.44
制度漏洞 9 33.33
运营商不安全监督 监督不
充分		 缺乏应急演练/培训 5 18.52
缺乏应急指导标准 2 7.41
公众安全教育不足 6 22.22
执行监督不足 4 14.81
沟通不足 6 22.22
监督违规 未按预案进行风险研判；未按要求进行事故报告 3 11.11
运行计
划不当		 应急响应措施有效性不高；计划中应急指令不及时 6 22.22
现场人员
不安全行
为的前提
条件		 环境因素 技术环境 14 51.85
物理环境 4 14.81
人员因素 操作人员知识不足 4 14.81
现场人员的不安全行为 失误 技能失误 20 74.07
决策失误 5 18.52
违规 未实施有效警戒；抢修前未进行可燃气体检测；使用不恰当的设备；到达现场不及时；违规启动管道输送 5 18.52
), ArticleFig(id=1172170764146037557, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

基于GT的事故应急失效原因因素编码

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
选择式
编码		 主轴式编码 开放式编码 频数 占比/
%
政府及应
急部门
因素		 安全监管
不到位		 督促企业落实应急预案不力；未及时发现现场人员的违章 4 14.81
相关规定
有缺陷		 应急法规存在缺陷；建设规划不合理；缺乏不同部门间的明确协议 3 11.11
应急救援
不力		 未及时通知和疏散群众；指挥协调应急救援不力；事故风险研判失误 4 14.81
运营商组
织因素		 不良的组
织氛围		 对应急救援工作重视不够 4 14.81
资源管
理不当		 应急资源配置存在缺陷 5 18.52
组织程序
规章漏洞		 程序漏洞 12 44.44
制度漏洞 9 33.33
运营商不安全监督 监督不
充分		 缺乏应急演练/培训 5 18.52
缺乏应急指导标准 2 7.41
公众安全教育不足 6 22.22
执行监督不足 4 14.81
沟通不足 6 22.22
监督违规 未按预案进行风险研判；未按要求进行事故报告 3 11.11
运行计
划不当		 应急响应措施有效性不高；计划中应急指令不及时 6 22.22
现场人员
不安全行
为的前提
条件		 环境因素 技术环境 14 51.85
物理环境 4 14.81
人员因素 操作人员知识不足 4 14.81
现场人员的不安全行为 失误 技能失误 20 74.07
决策失误 5 18.52
违规 未实施有效警戒；抢修前未进行可燃气体检测；使用不恰当的设备；到达现场不及时；违规启动管道输送 5 18.52
), ArticleFig(id=1172170764234117942, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Causes and codes of emergency response failure

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因素类别及编码 具体因素及编码
政府及应急部门因素(GE) 安全监管不到位GE1、相关规定有缺陷GE2、应急救援不力GE3
运营商组织因素(PO) 不良的组织氛围PO1、资源管理不当PO2、程序漏洞PO3、制度漏洞PO4
运营商不安全监督(PS) 监督不充分PS1、监督违规PS2、运行计划不适当PS3
现场人员不安全行为的前提条件(HP) 人员因素HP1、物理环境HP2、技术环境HP3
现场人员不安全行为(HB) 技能失误HB1、决策失误HB2、违规HB3
), ArticleFig(id=1172170764301226807, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

事故应急失效原因因素及编码

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
因素类别及编码 具体因素及编码
政府及应急部门因素(GE) 安全监管不到位GE1、相关规定有缺陷GE2、应急救援不力GE3
运营商组织因素(PO) 不良的组织氛围PO1、资源管理不当PO2、程序漏洞PO3、制度漏洞PO4
运营商不安全监督(PS) 监督不充分PS1、监督违规PS2、运行计划不适当PS3
现场人员不安全行为的前提条件(HP) 人员因素HP1、物理环境HP2、技术环境HP3
现场人员不安全行为(HB) 技能失误HB1、决策失误HB2、违规HB3
), ArticleFig(id=1172170764372529976, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Core and edge emergency response failure causal factors

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
位置 应急失效原因因素
核心 GE1、GE2、GE3、PO2、PO3、PO4、PS1、HP3、HB1
边缘 PO1、PS2、PS3、HP1、HP2、HB2、HB3
), ArticleFig(id=1172170764477387577, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106705164038704, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

事故应急失效原因核心-边缘因素

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
位置 应急失效原因因素
核心 GE1、GE2、GE3、PO2、PO3、PO4、PS1、HP3、HB1
边缘 PO1、PS2、PS3、HP1、HP2、HB2、HB3
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油气管道事故应急失效原因及社会网络分析
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宫运华 1, 2 , 张喆 1
中国安全科学学报 | 应急技术与管理 2025,35(1): 209-215
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中国安全科学学报 | 应急技术与管理 2025, 35(1): 209-215
油气管道事故应急失效原因及社会网络分析
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宫运华1, 2 , 张喆1
作者信息
  • 1 中国石油大学(北京) 安全与海洋工程学院，北京 102249
  • 2 中国石油大学(北京) 应急管理部油气生产安全与应急技术重点实验室，北京 102249

    • 宫运华 (1983—)，女，河北邢台人，博士，讲师，主要从事安全管理、行为安全、安全文化、安全领导力等方面的研究。E-mail：。

Failure causes of emergency response in oil and gas pipeline accidents and social network analysis
Yunhua GONG1, 2 , Zhe ZHANG1
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Safety and Ocean Engineering，China University of Petroleum，Beijing 102249，China
  • 2 Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Safety and Emergency Technology Ministry of Emergency Management，China University of Petroleum，Beijing 102249，China
出版时间: 2025-01-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.01.1536
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摘要
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为避免因应急失效导致油气管道事故后果加重的问题，基于人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)模型，分析国内外27起油气管道事故中的应急失效原因。依据扎根理论(GT)统计编码分析结果，得到油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型；应用社会网络分析(SNA)方法构建油气管道事故应急失效原因关系网络，利用核心-边缘分析、中心性分析和关联方向指数分析识别油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型中的核心因素及具有高关联性和强媒介作用的因素。研究结果表明：油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型包含政府及应急部门因素、运营商组织因素、运营商不安全监督、现场人员不安全行为的前提条件、现场人员的不安全行为5个层次。应急失效原因细分为16个最底层因素，其中，政府及应急部门安全监管不到位、应急救援不力、制度漏洞、管道运营商监督不充分、技术环境、技能失误等9个因素属于核心因素；技能失误、制度漏洞、技术环境、运营商监督不充分为高关联度因素；管道运营商的制度漏洞、程序漏洞、技术环境、监督不充分、资源管理不当和决策失误为强媒介因素。

油气管道事故  /  应急失效原因  /  社会网络分析(SNA)  /  分类模型  /  人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)模型

To avoid worsening the consequences of oil and gas pipeline accidents due to emergency failures，the causes of emergency failure in 27 accidents at home and abroad were analyzed using the HFACS model. Based on the results of grounded theory (GT) statistical coding analysis，a classification model of failure causes of emergency response in oil and gas pipeline accidents was proposed. SNA was used to develop the relationship network of the causes of emergency failures in oil and gas pipeline accidents. The core-periphery，centrality，and association direction index analyses were used to identify core factors and factors with high association and strong mediating roles in the classification model of the causes of emergency failures in oil and gas pipeline accidents. The results indicated that the classification model of emergency failure causes in oil and gas pipeline accidents was divided into five levels: government and emergency department factors，operator organizational factors，operator unsafe supervision，preconditions for unsafe behavior of on-site personnel，and unsafe behavior of on-site personnel. The emergency failure causes were further divided into 16 bottom-level factors，among which there were 9 core factors: inadequate safety supervision by government and emergency departments，ineffective emergency rescue，regulations defects，insufficient supervision by pipeline operators，technical environment，and skill errors. Skill errors，regulations or procedure defects，technical environment，and insufficient supervision by operators were highly associated factors. Moreover，pipeline operators' regulation defects，procedure defects，technical environment，insufficient supervision，improper resource management，and decision-making errors were strong mediating factors.

oil and gas pipeline accident  /  emergency response failure causes  /  social network analysis(SNA)  /  classification model  /  human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) model
宫运华, 张喆. 油气管道事故应急失效原因及社会网络分析. 中国安全科学学报, 2025 , 35 (1) : 209 -215 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.01.1536
Yunhua GONG, Zhe ZHANG. Failure causes of emergency response in oil and gas pipeline accidents and social network analysis[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (1) : 209 -215 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.01.1536
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0 引言
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油气管道事故的特征之一是应急措施的有效性对事故后果的影响巨大。分析国内外油气管道事故后发现，多起事故存在应急措施失效的问题。目前，油气管道事故研究主要集中在导致事故发生的腐蚀、材料缺陷、自然灾害、第三方破坏等方面[1]，对事故发生后应急失效原因的研究有限。因此，有必要研究油气管道事故应急失效的原因，以提升油气管道事故的应急措施的有效性，降低事故损失。
袁长峰[2-3]、张玉龙[4]等研究了油气储运火灾事故应急过程致因因素及预防对策，构建了油气储运火灾事故应急过程致因因素的分类体系。崔慧[5]通过统计分析国内外油库区火灾爆炸事故，构建了油库区火灾应急过程事故致因因素分类体系结构。姜文士[6]研究了导致城燃气管道泄漏事故应急处置失效的直接原因和间接原因。GONG Yunhua等[7]在分析中石化东黄输油管道爆炸火灾事故原因过程中提出了应将事故预防因素和应急失效因素单独分析的思路，并给出了该事故应急失效原因的分析结果。另有学者研究了应急管理体系建设和应急技术开发等，但没有分析具体的应急失效原因因素。王起全[8]分析了输油管道泄漏火灾爆炸事故演化及应急疏散，模拟计算并优化了应急疏散路径。郑登峰等[9]提出一种多地多场景政企联动综合应急演练模式，用于提高管道运输企业应急能力。郭立等[10]采用“R-E”一体化方法构建了油气管道突发事故应急管理体系框架，为油气管道突发事故场景的应急处置与管理提供支持。由此可见：与油气管道事故应急失效原因相关的研究局限在油气储运单位内部的应急失效因素，没有系统分析政府监管、应急管理部门和社会公众的有关应急失效因素，尚未建立油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型。
鉴于此，笔者拟逐一分析27起国内外油气管道事故的应急失效原因，依据扎根理论(Grounded Theory，GT)、参考人为因素分析与分类系统(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System，HFACS)模型编码、整合应急失效的原因因素，构建油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型；利用社会网络分析(Social Network Analysis，SNA)法分析油气管道事故应急失效原因因素之间的关系；采用核心-边缘分析、中心性分析和关联方向指数识别油气管道事故应急失效原因中核心因素及具有高关联性和强媒介作用的因素，从而明确油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型中对事故损失控制较为关键的因素，以期为提升油气管道事故应急工作的有效性提供参考依据。
1 事故失效原因分类研究方法
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HFACS模型将事故原因分为不安全行为、不安全行为的前提条件、不安全的监督和组织影响4个层次。HFACS模型在事故原因分类方面存在明显优势[11]。该模型在建筑[12]、交通[13-14]、化工[15]等行业事故分析中都有成功应用。结合油气管道事故应急管理的特点，依据该模型可实现油气管网事故应急失效原因分类。
GT是一种运用系统化的程序，归纳引导出存在于资料中的理论的质性研究方法[16]。基于GT的研究方法一般分为开放式编码、主轴式编码及选择式编码3个步骤。3个编码过程即为应急原因分类模型建立的过程。
为深入解释油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型，需进一步分析导致应急失效的各原因因素的重要性及各因素间的相关关系。SNA法已在事故原因因素之间关系的分析中得到成功应用[17-18]，因此，也可推广到对事故应急失效原因因素的分析中。
2 事故应急失效原因分类模型建立
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从美国国家运输安全委员会、加拿大运输安全委员会能源局和国内公开发布的事故调查报告中，收集1994—2019年的27起国内外油气管道事故案例，结果见表1。遵循GT对事故应急失效原因因素编码，见表2。油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型如图1所示。其中，出现频率较高且内容较丰富的因素，如技能失误包括未及时启动应急响应、未及时正确判断警报原因、未及时注意异常情况、未及时关闭管道、未及时确定失效位置等；技术环境包括泄漏监测有缺陷、泄漏报警程序故障和缺乏相关信息。
3 事故应急失效原因SNA
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3.1 应急失效原因因素社会网络构建
依据SNA的流程，采用英文字母及数字组合的形式，对16个最底层的油气管道事故应急失效原因因素编码。其中，取各层级英文名称的首2位字母及阿拉伯数字作为该层级各个因素的编码(表3)。
根据27起油气管道事故案例的具体内容，找出存在直接关系的应急失效原因因素，形成原因网络图。每起事故都可以用一个表达该事故应急失效原因因素关系的局部关系矩阵表示。对存在直接关系的因素对取1，反之则取0。再将收集到的所有油气管道事故报告案例矩阵化，最终建立一个全局关系矩阵。对关系矩阵作可视化处理，油气管道事故应急失效原因网络如图2所示。图中，拥有直接关系的因素对通过连接线连接，线条越粗表示2个因素共同出现的频率越高，联系越紧密。可以看出，技术环境HP3和技能失误HB1是导致应急失效的因素中出现频率高且与其他因素联系紧密的原因因素。
3.2 应急失效原因因素核心—边缘分析
核心因素是指对油气管道事故应急失效网络来说重要性较大，对事故发生起到关键作用的因素。边缘因素则是指与核心因素相对的因素。分析得出9个因素属于核心因素，7个属于边缘因素，见表4。
3.3 应急失效原因因素中心性分析
3.3.1 度数中心性分析
点的度数测量了节点参与活动的情况，是测量中心度的基础。居于中心地位的节点与其他多个节点都有直接关联。与某点相邻的点称为该点的邻点，度数就是一个点的邻点个数，也称关联度。油气管道事故应急失效原因网络各因素的度数中心度降序排列如图3所示。
3.3.2 中间中心性分析
在网络中没有直接关系的节点有时需要依靠其他节点联系，中间中心度就是用来表示这种媒介作用强弱的指标。各应急失效原因因素的中间中心度如图4所示。可见：PO4、PO3、HP3、PS1、PO2和HB2为强媒介因素。
3.3.3 关联方向指数分析
应用关联方向指数可得出每个因素在有向网络中发挥的功能，指数为正时可认为该因素为结果因素，反之则认为该因素为原因因素。关联方向指数的绝对值大小代表各因素偏向结果或是原因的程度。
事故应急失效原因因素关联方向指数分析结果如图5所示。GE1，GE2，GE3的关联指数都为-1，说明政府及应急部门层级的因素易对其他因素产生影响。此外，PO1和PS2的关联方向指数也为-1，表明这些因素也是其他失效原因因素的致因。
4 结论
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1) 基于HFACS模型建立的油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型包含政府及应急部门因素、运营商组织因素、运营商不安全监督、现场人员不安全行为的前提条件、现场人员的不安全行为5个层次和16个最底层原因因素。
2) 通过SNA可知：事故应急失效网络的核心因素为政府及应急部门安全监管不到位、应急救援不力、制度漏洞、管道运营商监督不充分、技术环境、技能失误等9个因素；强媒介因素为管道运营商的制度漏洞、程序漏洞、技术环境等。高关联度因素为技能失误、制度漏洞、技术环境、运营商监督不充分。
3) 油气管道事故应急失效原因分类模型及其SNA结果可用于降低应急失效的可能性，从而避免因应急失效导致油气管道事故后果加重的问题。
基金
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  • 中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助(2462022YXZZ001)
文献
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2025年第35卷第1期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.01.1536
  • 接收时间：2024-08-11
  • 首发时间：2025-07-05
  • 出版时间：2025-01-28
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  • 收稿日期：2024-08-11
  • 修回日期：2024-10-12
基金
中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助(2462022YXZZ001)
作者信息
    1 中国石油大学(北京) 安全与海洋工程学院，北京 102249
    2 中国石油大学(北京) 应急管理部油气生产安全与应急技术重点实验室，北京 102249
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