Article(id=1148106702026695013, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106698197295351, articleNumber=1003-3033(2025)02-0001-09, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.0661, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1728921600000, receivedDateStr=2024-10-15, revisedDate=1734278400000, revisedDateStr=2024-12-16, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1751659568554, onlineDateStr=2025-07-05, pubDate=1740672000000, pubDateStr=2025-02-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1751659568554, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-05, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1751659568554, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1751659568554, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1148106698197295351, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='2', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1751659567641, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1757401525528, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1172190215188894212, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106698197295351, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1172190215188894213, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106698197295351, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1, endPage=9, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149767843442508628, articleId=1148106702026695013, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=A review of research for civil aviation safety resilience, columnId=1149735801703023337, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety science theory and safety system science, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to systematically review the research and development status of safety resilience in the field of civil aviation at home and abroad,and deepen the research on safety resilience in the field of civil aviation,firstly,the concept of aviation safety resilience was explored by reviewing policy documents,standards and research literature related to air transport systems in recent years. Then the research and application of safety resilience in civil aviation airport,air traffic control,flight operation and other fields were discussed. Finally,the existing problems were analyzed and corresponding suggestions and prospects are put forward. The results show that the safety management of civil aviation has formed a relatively perfect system,and the safety resilience covers all stages of safety management before,during and after,but it still cannot meet the needs of perfect connection and integration with the existing safety management system. Current studies focus more on the resilience of airports and route networks. In terms flight operation,more measures are taken to improve safety resilience based on the actual flight operation. The basic research on aviation resilience assessment is relatively lacking,and the research on aviation personnel resilience at operational level is far from enough. In the future,relevant research should be carried out around the individual operation resilience,enrich the basic research of resilience assessment,further deepen the research and form a relatively stable discipline system,pay attention to the connection between safety resilience and safety management system,and assess individual operation resilience from the perspective of safety.

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为系统梳理国内外民用航空领域内安全韧性的研究发展现状,深化安全韧性在民航领域的研究,首先查阅近年来航空运输系统相关政策文件、标准与研究文献,探究航空安全韧性的概念;然后重点探讨民航机场、空管、飞行运行等领域安全韧性的研究和应用状况;最后分析存在的问题并提出相应建议及展望。结果表明:民航安全管理已形成较为完善的体系,安全韧性覆盖了安全管理事前、事中和事后的各个阶段,但仍不能满足与现有安全管理体系完美衔接与融合的需求;当前研究更多聚焦于机场和航线网络韧性,在飞行运行层面,更多针对飞行运行实际,通过采取相应措施来提高安全韧性;对航空韧性评估的基础研究相对缺乏,对航空人员作业层面的韧性研究还远远不够;未来应围绕人员作业韧性展开相应研究,丰富韧性评估的基础研究,进一步深化研究并形成相对稳定的学科体系,关注安全韧性与安全管理体系的衔接方式,并从安全角度评估个人作业韧性。

, correspAuthors=袁乐平, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=vbRvWsXXDbLVmtilwLxMaA==, magXml=FDvc2PM1bxp3EX4oXc9ZWA==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=vJyK6gAs31JIGGpiKidDvQ==, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=EDP8i/Dtn5DvCL9beFmCmw==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

袁乐平 (1978—),男,云南泸西人,硕士,副教授,主要从事空中交通安全技术方面的研究。E-mail:

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袁乐平 (1978—),男,云南泸西人,硕士,副教授,主要从事空中交通安全技术方面的研究。E-mail:

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袁乐平 (1978—),男,云南泸西人,硕士,副教授,主要从事空中交通安全技术方面的研究。E-mail:

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Air operations-UK regulation (EU) No. 965/2012[R/OL].(2024-12-19). https://regulatorylibrary.caa.co.uk/965-2012-PDF/PDF.pdf., articleTitle=Air operations-UK regulation (EU) No. 965/2012, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1165681891207291238, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106702026695013, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=33, issue=null, pageStart=18, pageEnd=27, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[62], rfOrder=75, authorNames=Airbus-Product Safety Department, journalName=Safety First, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Airbus-Product Safety Department. Training pilots for resilience[J]. 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Evaluation model of airline safety resilience[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2024, 24(1): 63-71., articleTitle=Evaluation model of airline safety resilience, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1165681891425395049, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106702026695013, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[64], rfOrder=78, authorNames=LI Wenchin, NICHANIAN A, LIN J, journalName=Ergonomics, refType=null, unstructuredReference=LI Wenchin, NICHANIAN A, LIN J, et al. What can we learn from severity index on flight data monitoring? analysis of safety resilience in flight operations during COVID-19 disruptions[J]. Ergonomics, 2023: DOI: 10.1080/00140139.2023.2286908., articleTitle=What can we learn from severity index on flight data monitoring? analysis of safety resilience in flight operations during COVID-19 disruptions, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1165681891479921002, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106702026695013, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=https://skybrary.aero/sites/default/files/bookshelf/5964.pdf, language=null, rfNumber=[65], rfOrder=79, authorNames=American Airlines' Department of Flight Safety, journalName=2020-06-01, refType=null, unstructuredReference=American Airlines' Department of Flight Safety. Trailblazers into Safety-II: American Airlines' learning and improvement team, a white paper outlining AA's beginnings of a Safety-II journey[R/OL]. (2020-06-01). https://skybrary.aero/sites/default/files/bookshelf/5964.pdf., articleTitle=Trailblazers into Safety-II: American Airlines' learning and improvement team, a white paper outlining AA's beginnings of a Safety-II journey, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1165681891547029867, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106702026695013, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=null, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=https://simpleflying.com/ryanair-technology-leader/, language=null, rfNumber=[66], rfOrder=80, authorNames=Simple Flying, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Simple Flying. How Ryanair is becoming a leader in new technology[EB/OL]. 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Concept and connotation of safety resilience in certain fields

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
领域 年份 作者 概念内涵
通用 1988 WILDAVSKY[18] 在未预料到的危险出现后应对并学会反弹的能力
自然灾害 1999 MILETI[19] 一个地区在缺乏外界援助的情况下,经历自然灾害而不受到损失、不伤害生产力和人民生活质量的能力
医疗卫生 2007 MILLER[20] 指工作系统在面对中断时缓冲、适应、吸收和防止患者不良结果的能力
通用 2011 STEEN[21] 系统在变化和干扰之前或之后调整其功能的内在能力,因此,即使在发生重大事故或持续压力存在之后,它也可以维持运行
城市管理 2016 MEEROW等[22] 指城市系统及其社会生态和社会技术网络在面对干扰时保持和快速恢复所需功能的能力,以适应当前或未来时空变化的快速转化能力
航空公司 2022 方琛亮[23] 航空公司在运行过程中能预防、抵抗、承受、适应各种干扰或冲击,始终维持企业运行安全稳定,以正常水平提供运输服务并持续调整改进的能力
通用 2022 罗通元[24] 广义安全韧性是以安全科学和韧性理论为基础,以维持对象的安全状态为目的,反映系统中的一切对象抵御安全状态变化的能力;狭义的安全韧性指系统发生事故前的管理、监测、预测、预警的能力,事故发生中的响应、决策和协调能力,事故发生后的恢复、处置和反馈能力
消防安全 2023 刘敬严等[25] 消防安全韧性是受到火灾风险冲击时,系统本身脆弱性显现,受到威胁,但系统性能能够抵抗火灾风险影响并保持自身正常运转,遭受破坏后能及时恢复正常运营,并能吸取经验教训,不断学习调整,以期更好地适应火灾风险扰动,提高整体安全性的能力
高速公路服
务区运营
2024 陈均栋等[26] 指服务区在运营中能够感知、预测、应对不利事件,并在不利事件后恢复和优化服务品质的能力,是一种过程表现能力
数字政府 2024 王秉等[8] 在一定时空内面对安全风险时,能够感知、吸收安全风险并适应和优化数字政府安全状态的能力。若数字政府在受到预期或意外的安全风险冲击时依然能够安全运行,则称该数字政府是具有安全韧性的
), ArticleFig(id=1165681886165737752, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106702026695013, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

部分领域的安全韧性概念及内涵

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
领域 年份 作者 概念内涵
通用 1988 WILDAVSKY[18] 在未预料到的危险出现后应对并学会反弹的能力
自然灾害 1999 MILETI[19] 一个地区在缺乏外界援助的情况下,经历自然灾害而不受到损失、不伤害生产力和人民生活质量的能力
医疗卫生 2007 MILLER[20] 指工作系统在面对中断时缓冲、适应、吸收和防止患者不良结果的能力
通用 2011 STEEN[21] 系统在变化和干扰之前或之后调整其功能的内在能力,因此,即使在发生重大事故或持续压力存在之后,它也可以维持运行
城市管理 2016 MEEROW等[22] 指城市系统及其社会生态和社会技术网络在面对干扰时保持和快速恢复所需功能的能力,以适应当前或未来时空变化的快速转化能力
航空公司 2022 方琛亮[23] 航空公司在运行过程中能预防、抵抗、承受、适应各种干扰或冲击,始终维持企业运行安全稳定,以正常水平提供运输服务并持续调整改进的能力
通用 2022 罗通元[24] 广义安全韧性是以安全科学和韧性理论为基础,以维持对象的安全状态为目的,反映系统中的一切对象抵御安全状态变化的能力;狭义的安全韧性指系统发生事故前的管理、监测、预测、预警的能力,事故发生中的响应、决策和协调能力,事故发生后的恢复、处置和反馈能力
消防安全 2023 刘敬严等[25] 消防安全韧性是受到火灾风险冲击时,系统本身脆弱性显现,受到威胁,但系统性能能够抵抗火灾风险影响并保持自身正常运转,遭受破坏后能及时恢复正常运营,并能吸取经验教训,不断学习调整,以期更好地适应火灾风险扰动,提高整体安全性的能力
高速公路服
务区运营
2024 陈均栋等[26] 指服务区在运营中能够感知、预测、应对不利事件,并在不利事件后恢复和优化服务品质的能力,是一种过程表现能力
数字政府 2024 王秉等[8] 在一定时空内面对安全风险时,能够感知、吸收安全风险并适应和优化数字政府安全状态的能力。若数字政府在受到预期或意外的安全风险冲击时依然能够安全运行,则称该数字政府是具有安全韧性的
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民航安全韧性研究综述
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袁乐平 , 郑颖 , 谷泽坤 , 高煜宇
中国安全科学学报 | 安全科学理论与安全系统科学 2025,35(2): 1-9
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中国安全科学学报 | 安全科学理论与安全系统科学 2025, 35(2): 1-9
民航安全韧性研究综述
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袁乐平 , 郑颖, 谷泽坤, 高煜宇
作者信息
  • 中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院,天津 300300
  • 袁乐平 (1978—),男,云南泸西人,硕士,副教授,主要从事空中交通安全技术方面的研究。E-mail:

A review of research for civil aviation safety resilience
Leping YUAN , Ying ZHENG, Zekun GU, Yuyu GAO
Affiliations
  • College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China
出版时间: 2025-02-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.0661
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为系统梳理国内外民用航空领域内安全韧性的研究发展现状,深化安全韧性在民航领域的研究,首先查阅近年来航空运输系统相关政策文件、标准与研究文献,探究航空安全韧性的概念;然后重点探讨民航机场、空管、飞行运行等领域安全韧性的研究和应用状况;最后分析存在的问题并提出相应建议及展望。结果表明:民航安全管理已形成较为完善的体系,安全韧性覆盖了安全管理事前、事中和事后的各个阶段,但仍不能满足与现有安全管理体系完美衔接与融合的需求;当前研究更多聚焦于机场和航线网络韧性,在飞行运行层面,更多针对飞行运行实际,通过采取相应措施来提高安全韧性;对航空韧性评估的基础研究相对缺乏,对航空人员作业层面的韧性研究还远远不够;未来应围绕人员作业韧性展开相应研究,丰富韧性评估的基础研究,进一步深化研究并形成相对稳定的学科体系,关注安全韧性与安全管理体系的衔接方式,并从安全角度评估个人作业韧性。

民航  /  安全韧性  /  安全管理  /  航空运输  /  飞行运行

In order to systematically review the research and development status of safety resilience in the field of civil aviation at home and abroad,and deepen the research on safety resilience in the field of civil aviation,firstly,the concept of aviation safety resilience was explored by reviewing policy documents,standards and research literature related to air transport systems in recent years. Then the research and application of safety resilience in civil aviation airport,air traffic control,flight operation and other fields were discussed. Finally,the existing problems were analyzed and corresponding suggestions and prospects are put forward. The results show that the safety management of civil aviation has formed a relatively perfect system,and the safety resilience covers all stages of safety management before,during and after,but it still cannot meet the needs of perfect connection and integration with the existing safety management system. Current studies focus more on the resilience of airports and route networks. In terms flight operation,more measures are taken to improve safety resilience based on the actual flight operation. The basic research on aviation resilience assessment is relatively lacking,and the research on aviation personnel resilience at operational level is far from enough. In the future,relevant research should be carried out around the individual operation resilience,enrich the basic research of resilience assessment,further deepen the research and form a relatively stable discipline system,pay attention to the connection between safety resilience and safety management system,and assess individual operation resilience from the perspective of safety.

civil aviation  /  safety resilience  /  safety management  /  air transport  /  flight operations
袁乐平, 郑颖, 谷泽坤, 高煜宇. 民航安全韧性研究综述. 中国安全科学学报, 2025 , 35 (2) : 1 -9 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.0661
Leping YUAN, Ying ZHENG, Zekun GU, Yuyu GAO. A review of research for civil aviation safety resilience[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (2) : 1 -9 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.0661
伴随着航空运输业的快速发展,航空事故率在起伏中保持相对稳定,这也意味着事故风险仍然存在[1]。为有效提高安全管理水平、降低事故风险,安全韧性问题引发了行业和学术界的极大关注,也成为当今的研究热点。
关于韧性的研究,生态环境等其他领域均有涉及。其概念最早由HOLLING[2]于19世纪70年代提出,出现于生态学。FOLKE[3]将韧性定义为系统在经历变化时吸收干扰和重新组织的能力。而在安全领域,HOLLNAGEL[4]将以往传统基于事故、事件和风险的安全管理归为Safety-I范畴,并提出了着眼于未来的Safety-II概念。相对于Safety-I,Safety-II更强调和关注日常是如何保证生产平稳运行的,系统中的人和系统本身对于保障安全具有韧性,安全管理的重点应关注日常运行、发掘韧性潜能、建设稳健系统。同时,HOLLNAGEL[5]还提出了系统安全韧性的4个基本方面,即响应能力、监测能力、预测能力及学习能力。在中国知网、Web of Science、工程索引(Engineering Index,EI)等数据库中,检索韧性、安全、安全韧性等相关文献发现,众多学者开始探索安全韧性在不同领域不同方面的应用,如城市安全韧性[6]、企业韧性安全文化[7]、数字政府安全韧性[8]、隧道施工安全韧性[9]及建筑行业安全韧性文化[10]等,他们对安全韧性的研究方式和方法均有所不同。其中,PEI Jingjing[6]采用构建指标体系法来评估安全韧性;SHIRALI等[7]通过设计相应问卷来评估安全韧性文化;林陵娜等[10]根据已有数据构建安全培训-韧性安全文化-知识转移行为-安全绩效的关系模型,更注重研究安全韧性文化与安全绩效之间的关系。在民航领域,关于韧性的研究,既有航空运输网络韧性研究[11-12],又有安全韧性研究[13]
国内外学者从不同角度总结归纳了现有韧性研究,如民航领域机场韧性[14],医疗卫生领域系统韧性[15]等。此外,还有学者梳理了韧性在不同领域中的定义及评估方法[16],简述了韧性工程在空中交通管理领域的应用[17],但鲜有文献分析航空安全领域的韧性研究。鉴于此,笔者拟梳理国内外民航领域现有的安全韧性研究,并结合航空运输几大主体领域的实际应用,评述已有航空安全韧性研究,讨论目前研究现状并展望安全韧性未来发展趋势,以期为航空运输安全韧性研究提供新思路。
目前学界普遍将韧性视作一种能力,其具体表现为系统面对风险扰动或冲击情况下仍能保持功能水平不变。关于安全韧性,不同领域存在不同的理解和定义。部分领域的安全韧性概念内涵见表1
结合表1,对于韧性概念的定义大致分为3类:第1类是将韧性和保证工作任务顺利完成联系起来;第2类是将韧性看作是对意外扰动的识别和管理;而第3类则强调组织层面规范的建立(如安全文化等)。
当前已有相关组织研究了航空运输领域内的安全韧性概念,欧洲航空安全局将机组韧性定义为机组成员识别、吸收和适应干扰的能力[27]。欧洲空中航行安全组织(European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation,EUROCONTROL)《空中交通管理韧性工程白皮书》中指出韧性是指系统在变化和干扰之前、期间或之后调整其功能的内在能力,因此,可在预期和意外条件下维持所需操作[28]。国际民航组织认为韧性是系统抵御扰动、快速恢复的属性,结合危机管理构建系统韧性的框架[29]。此外,也有学者明确提出新一代民航运输系统安全韧性的定义,即在扰动事件干扰的情况下,系统通过采取紧急措施来满足运输需求,以及在有限时间内以合理的成本恢复和保持系统性能水平持久性的能力,并在安全方面具备韧性水平[30]
现有成果多聚焦于机场航线网络韧性的研究。通常以机场为节点,机场之间的航班为边,构建航空运输网络[31]。CLARK等[32]通过研究美国机场网络拓扑结构,定量化分析了机场网络的鲁棒性,以改进其恢复策略;GUO Jiuxia等[33]选取国内外共314个机场的真实空中交通数据,分别构成中国机场网络和欧洲机场网络,利用所提出的结合数据驱动的复杂网络方法评估机场网络韧性。杨宗鑫[34]主要从机场网络抗毁性、恢复性及韧性评估等方面研究机场在突发事件下的网络韧性能力提升。复杂网络理论在机场航线网络韧性研究方面得到较好应用。通过构建复杂网络,选取适宜的韧性指标,构建相应的韧性评估模型,模拟网络受到攻击、故障或其他干扰的情况来观察所构建网络的恢复性能,进而评估其韧性。
机场的基础设施在机场运行过程中也起着重要作用。黄信等[35]曾对在暴雪灾害情况下机场基础设施韧性进行了相关研究,从物理、功能、经济、组织等4个维度构建机场基础设施韧性指标体系,确定各指标权重;采用模糊综合评价法,定量化评价分析其韧性水平。飞机起降对跑道的要求极高,为保证飞行起降过程安全,机场道面网络研究也受到学界关注。事故或事件发生后,机场道面有很大概率会受到一定程度损坏,为将事件后的起降能力迅速恢复到事件前的水平,同时更好地保障下一航班的起降安全,FATURECHI等[36]以滑行道、跑道和虚拟弧为边,相应连接的点为节点构建机场道面网络,并利用随机整数规划模型评估机场道面网络韧性。HUANG Chunnen等[37]基于专家的多标准决策提出了新的机场韧性评估模型,该模型采用贝叶斯最佳最差法确定最优组权重,利用改进的富集评价偏好排序组织法计算每个备选方案与期望水平之间的差距。
为提高机场系统抵御突发事件的能力,GUO Jiuxia等[38]基于韧性理论构建机场运行系统安全韧性管理框架模型,利用功能共振分析法(Functional Resonance Analysis Method,FRAM)评估机场运行系统安全韧性损失;ZHOU Lei等[39]探讨机场韧性在空间和时间上的变化规律以及破坏性事件中机场韧性影响因素,并提出了反映机场韧性水平的新指标。机场在遭遇突发事件,能够迅速恢复到正常的运行状态,是安全韧性得以发挥的充分体现。上述研究从不同层面分析机场运行安全韧性,但更侧重分析在突发事件发生的情况下机场网络的抗毁性、恢复策略等。目前对于机场安全韧性的研究大都选择从多个维度选取相应指标,构建指标体系,此外,也更多地将复杂网络、FRAM等方法融入安全韧性研究中。
以往空中交通管理安全研究倾向于在安全评估和设计过程中消除危险源、设置约束或预防不良事件,但对安全的理解不能仅局限于预防事故视角[40]。近年来,众多学者开始从韧性视角研究空中交通管理系统[41]安全。YENSON等[42]在空中交通管理背景下初步识别了人机系统韧性的影响因素,并明确这些因素之间的内在关系,但其关系还未得到证实,需对其加以验证。空中交通管理系统是一个较为典型的复杂社会系统,需要用新的视角来评估系统风险,增强该系统的运行安全性。PATRIARCA等[43]基于Safety-I和Safety-II理念,并结合状态评估工具和韧性分析网格评分模型构建韧性分析网格-状态评估工具,半定量分析空中交通管理系统功能,将韧性与系统状态和系统风险暴露相联系,评估空中交通管理系统韧性。郭九霞[30]构建了新一代民航运输系统安全韧性体系概念框架,并分析空管系统的安全韧性问题,研究复杂运行环境下的安全韧性问题;王兴隆等[44]建立层次化贝叶斯网络模型,通过调整模型中各个节点分析空中交通运输系统正常运行的影响因素,评价系统韧性。
也有学者从运行效率角度出发,评估整个网络的韧性、稳健性。BAI Jie等[45]提出了新的空中交通管制网络级联失效模型,在管制协调网络与航路设施网络之间建立双层依赖关系,该模型的应用有利于增强空中交通管制网络韧性。王兴隆等[46-47]对空域扇区建模,采用随机和依度值等顺序删除并恢复网络中的节点,评估其结构韧性,还运用复杂网络理论建立中国空中交通管制扇区网络模型,并实证分析其脆弱性和韧性;苗尚飞[48]提出扇区网络韧性的概念,并采用韧性度量模型,从初始稳定阶段、破坏阶段、恢复阶段和新稳定阶段4个阶段构建综合韧性指标,比较分析不同扰动及恢复策略下的韧性值,以确定最佳恢复策略;孔建国等[49]考虑到空中交通拥堵对航空器的安全高效运行影响较大,基于复杂网络理论构建管制扇区网络,并结合韧性以及级联失效模型提出级联失效-恢复过程,研究扇区网络的动态韧性。
针对管制员,有部分学者对管制员作业韧性进行了研究,但较管制系统等的研究而言相对较少。STROEVE等[50]采用聚类分析方法收集到的干扰,以确定飞行员和管制员对待干扰的策略,并对其进行聚类分析,研究其关键特征、关键绩效领域的影响,可见个人的安全韧性在空管系统的重要作用。LAI[51]发现在飞机降落过程中,可通过机器学习来识别心智模型是否脱节来判断飞行员和管制员团队韧性是否依存。袁乐平等[52]基于管制员作业层面,结合韧性评估网络法构建管制员安全韧性评价指标体系,用以分析管制员作业安全韧性,进而量化管制员安全韧性行为。根据目前检索到的文献发现,民航领域对于管制员作业韧性的安全性研究较少,更多的是对管制系统韧性的研究。
此外,也有学者阐述了韧性模型[53]在空中交通管理(Air Traffic Management,ATM)系统中的安全研究。MACCHI等[54]将FRAM方法应用于评估最低安全高度告警系统安全,识别和描述其功能,如此能很好地提醒管制员,使其在作业过程中拥有充足的时间向飞行员发出适当指令。CARVALHO[55]基于FRAM模型分析GLO1907航班和N600XL的空中碰撞,以研究ATM系统的关键韧性特性。RUTKOWSKA等[56]基于FRAM模型研究了飞机管制移交过程的安全问题,监测和控制空管工作的可变性能。
为保证空中交通管制系统的安全平稳运行,有关管理当局也对安全韧性有相应的研究应用,更加注重从日常工作中学习。英国空管公司[57]和西班牙空管公司[58]通过观察管制班组工作,发现好的经验或习惯,弥补安全漏洞。EUROCONTROL推出事故调查工具包TOKAI[59],以弥补以往分类法的不足。以往分类法多使用否定性的修饰词,将学习等活动限制在较小范围——仅能从出错的环节学习,未能涵盖所有运行情况,而TOKAI能够反映出所有运行情况,长此以往,可从更普遍的安全运行情况中学习,提升组织的安全绩效。比如在传统审计中,实际运行的合规性问题容易被发现,但对于一些隐匿的问题难以发掘,德国空管公司、丹麦空管公司和EUROCONTROL联合探索监测空管系统的“弱信号”,通过结构化访谈的形式,从一线获取信息,并对其进行文本挖掘、语义分析等,以增强系统运行稳定[60]
飞行员作为飞机的直接操控者,对飞行运行安全起着决定性作用。英国民航局在GM5 ORO.FC.115及AMC1 ORO.FC.115法规[61]中针对机组资源培训(Crew Resource Management,CRM)提出韧性训练的要求。波音公司基于韧性理论提出飞行员胜任力培训和评估框架并进行实际应用的探索。无论在正常环境还是非正常环境中运行,飞行员都有可能面临意外、惊吓等事件,当出现问题时,既要识别出问题,更要注重机组间的交流和沟通,便于达成一致的情景意识,准确判断险情,正确处置险情。
近年来,空客公司[62]注重培训和评估机组人员能力,并推出了飞行员重新启动计划,以加强飞行员操作能力。而且其所有型号的评定课程都有多项选择方案,增加了机组人员可能遇到的意外情况的多样性,使其能够更好地得到韧性训练和评估。空客公司还要求机组在飞行结束后进行自我反思,包括如何应对威胁和差错以及如何运用自身能力来保持安全裕度等。
相应地,飞行员及其航空公司安全管理,对飞行运行安全也起着重大作用。王永刚等[63]将安全韧性概念引入航空公司安全管理,构建了航空公司安全韧性评价模型,以量化航空公司安全韧性水平;LI Wenchin等[64]基于飞行数据监控(Flight Data Monitoring,FDM)指数判断疫情期间航班运营的韧性,同时显现出飞行员及航空公司安全管理系统的安全韧性,FDM利于安全管理人员推进相应措施,进而提高运营部门和监管部门的安全韧性和自我监控能力。
国内外一些航空公司,在分析安全韧性理论基础上,结合各自运行实际已逐步开展实践探索。汉莎航空将安全韧性嵌入到CRM培训中,通过案例研究传达安全韧性理论,并加强这一计划的落地实施,同时,将韧性整合到面向航线的飞行培训中,在飞行员进行模拟机训练过程中进行相关训练。在疫情期间,汉莎航空公司从正常的飞行运行中进行学习[57],以提高飞行员安全韧性水平。美国航空[65]组建学习与改进团队(Learning and Improvement Team,LIT),开发了韧性潜能模型,并将这一模型应用于驾驶舱。LIT基于RAG开发了一种新的语言和数据收集方法,从常规领域内运营定期航班的航线飞行机组人员处获取相关的Safety-II数据。LIT旨在学习和分享个人、成员间的互动和整个系统所利用的专业知识,进而提高驾驶舱日常工作的安全性和效率。瑞安航空[66]基于Safety-II理念开发了飞行回放系统并内置于电子飞行包,有助于向飞行员提供真实客观的飞行过程回放,供其学习和改善日常飞行操作,提高飞行安全。
1) 针对机场和空管的韧性研究,当前研究更多聚焦于机场和航线网络韧性。在飞行运行方面,多家航司已率先开展安全韧性的实践探索,包括对机组操作的观察、机组人员的培训等。其中更多的是针对飞行运行实际,采取相应措施来提高安全韧性。
2) 从现有文献看,对航空韧性评估的基础研究相对缺乏,对航空人员作业层面的韧性研究相对薄弱。个人在组织、系统中扮演着重要角色,可通过不断地调节自身,使组织、系统向着积极、正向的方向发展。人本身可通过日常的学习,在作业过程中进行不断地调整,以适应系统的运作。因此,从人员作业层面,是未来安全韧性研究较有价值的方向。
3) 民航安全韧性研究脱胎于一般意义上的韧性研究,因此,具有相应的特征,在其韧性的定义、建模、测量和分析上研究思路是多样化的,可带动了韧性研究的发展,同时也表明安全韧性研究还处于初级阶段,需要进一步深化研究并形成相对稳定的学科体系。
4) 民航安全管理已经形成较为完善的体系,安全韧性覆盖了安全管理事前、事中和事后的各个阶段,如何与现有安全管理体系衔接与融合,是未来研究值得关注的领域。
5) 韧性评价的目的是提高系统韧性,从现有文献看强化韧性、提高系统安全性水平的措施缺乏新意,从这个角度看韧性研究期待更为新颖的思路和方法。
6) 韧性是当前研究和讨论的热点,民航领域韧性研究也取得了较为丰硕的成果,涉及安全、效率、环保及可持续发展等方面,成果呈现出多样化的特点。
  • 国家自然科学基金资助(U2133207)
  • 天津市自然科学基金资助(21JCYBJC00700)
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.0661
  • 接收时间:2024-10-15
  • 首发时间:2025-07-05
  • 出版时间:2025-02-28
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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-15
  • 修回日期:2024-12-16
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国家自然科学基金资助(U2133207)
天津市自然科学基金资助(21JCYBJC00700)
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    中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院,天津 300300
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
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