Article(id=1148106700701299044, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106698197295351, articleNumber=1003-3033(2025)02-0089-06, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.1655, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1726156800000, receivedDateStr=2024-09-13, revisedDate=1731686400000, revisedDateStr=2024-11-16, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1751659568237, onlineDateStr=2025-07-05, pubDate=1740672000000, pubDateStr=2025-02-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1751659568237, onlineIssueDateStr=2025-07-05, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1751659568237, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1751659568237, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1148106698197295351, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2025', volume='35', issue='2', pageStart='1', pageEnd='252', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1751659567641, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1757401525528, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1172190215188894212, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106698197295351, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1172190215188894213, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1148106698197295351, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=89, endPage=94, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1149767848563749207, articleId=1148106700701299044, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Buckling failure mechanism of vertical cylindrical tank shell based on Monte Carlo method, columnId=1149733269173878863, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety engineering technology, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to reduce the failure risk of petrochemical storage tanks in coastal areas under the influence of hurricanes,the failure model for vertical cylindrical tanks under wind load was established based on the strength stress interference theory. The critical wind speed for the buckling failure was determined by an example of a crude oil storage tank. For different random distributions of parameters,such as wind speed,the Monte Carlo method was also used to plot the probability curve of shell buckling failure. The buckling failure mechanism under static conditions was investigated,and the failure probability at different loading levels was determined under static conditions. The results show that the critical wind speeds are 60.67,65.38 and 69.79 m/s respectively when the loading levels are 25%,50% and 75% under the same wind load. According to the failure probability curve,the failure probability of the loading level of 25% is significant greater than that at 50%. Therefore,it can be seen that the buckling failure mechanism of the vertical cylindrical storage tank shell is as follows: the loading level is too low,which can easily lead to buckling failure of the storage tank under wind load. The higher the loading level,and the stronger the wind load resistance of the vertical cylindrical storage tank. Appropriate measures can be taken to increase the loading level to resist strong wind loads in the coastal chemical industries.

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为了降低飓风作用下沿海地区石油化工储罐的失效风险,基于强度-应力干涉理论,建立立式圆柱形储罐在风载荷作用下的静态失效模型,通过某原油储罐实例确定其屈曲失效的临界风速,并针对风速等参数不同随机分布情况,应用蒙特卡罗法进一步绘制壳体屈曲失效概率曲线,探究其静态条件下的屈曲失效机制,并确定不同装量水平下的失效概率。结果表明:针对立式圆柱形储罐,在相同风载荷作用下,装量水平为25%、50%、75%时,导致储罐壳体屈曲失效的临界风速分别为60.67、65.38、69.79 m/s;根据屈曲失效概率曲线,储罐装量水平对储罐抵抗风载荷的影响较大,装量水平为25%的失效概率远大于装量水平为50%的失效概率。因此,立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效机制为:装量水平过低,在风载荷作用下易导致储罐发生壳体屈曲失效,装量水平越高立式圆柱形储罐可抵抗风载荷的能力越强。沿海等化工企业可以采取适当增加装量水平等保护措施以抵抗强风载荷。

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潘科 (1980—),男,江苏无锡人,硕士,副教授,主要从事系统风险评价、事故后果仿真和应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

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潘科 (1980—),男,江苏无锡人,硕士,副教授,主要从事系统风险评价、事故后果仿真和应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

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潘科 (1980—),男,江苏无锡人,硕士,副教授,主要从事系统风险评价、事故后果仿真和应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

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A new method for calculating the probability distribution parameters of wind speed in wind farms[J]. 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tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1165681912929595591, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=CN, label=图2, caption=储罐壳体剩余应力与风速、径度关系, figureFileSmall=GW2sWBAzPsaSI5kMnfsdYA==, figureFileBig=OS5n4nc9/yZOERdmC/U4qw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1165681913017675976, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=Residual stress and wind velocity relationship diagram under three loading levels, figureFileSmall=F6BCuufSteweqc5A9RnPng==, figureFileBig=oh+XZcZkxtp/fi/FLplJSw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1165681913072201929, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=CN, label=图3, caption=3种装量水平下剩余应力-风速关系, figureFileSmall=F6BCuufSteweqc5A9RnPng==, figureFileBig=oh+XZcZkxtp/fi/FLplJSw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1165681913130922186, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Flow chart for calculating failure probability, figureFileSmall=acF50FF+FquG0TNGVVdIDg==, figureFileBig=xxMVafzTpk+MTPoQL0XJug==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1165681913198031051, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=CN, label=图4, caption=计算失效概率流程, figureFileSmall=acF50FF+FquG0TNGVVdIDg==, figureFileBig=xxMVafzTpk+MTPoQL0XJug==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1165681913269334220, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=EN, label=Fig.5, caption=Buckling failure probability curve of vertical storage tanks at different loading level, figureFileSmall=lOkWUZo0kbirV8+9pONWgg==, figureFileBig=rr4ZvGh04Y38R9qceWLQFw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1165681913353220301, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=CN, label=图5, caption=立式圆柱形储罐不同装量水平的屈曲失效概率曲线, figureFileSmall=lOkWUZo0kbirV8+9pONWgg==, figureFileBig=rr4ZvGh04Y38R9qceWLQFw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1165681913416134862, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Wind load classification based on wind speed for hurricanes

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
风载荷 飓风等级 中心最低风压/
kPa
最高持续风速/
(m·s-1)
对建筑物和设施的潜在伤害
1 98.0 33~42 对建筑物没有实际伤害,但对未固定的设施会造成伤害
2 96.5~97.9 43~49 部分房顶材质、门和窗受损,植被可能受损
3 94.5~96.4 50~58 某些小屋和大楼会受损,某些甚至完全被摧毁
4 92.0~94.4 59~69 小建筑的屋顶被彻底地完全摧毁
超高 5 <92.0 ≥70 大部分建筑物和独立房屋屋顶被完全摧毁
), ArticleFig(id=1165681913495826639, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

基于风速的飓风风载荷分类

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
风载荷 飓风等级 中心最低风压/
kPa
最高持续风速/
(m·s-1)
对建筑物和设施的潜在伤害
1 98.0 33~42 对建筑物没有实际伤害,但对未固定的设施会造成伤害
2 96.5~97.9 43~49 部分房顶材质、门和窗受损,植被可能受损
3 94.5~96.4 50~58 某些小屋和大楼会受损,某些甚至完全被摧毁
4 92.0~94.4 59~69 小建筑的屋顶被彻底地完全摧毁
超高 5 <92.0 ≥70 大部分建筑物和独立房屋屋顶被完全摧毁
), ArticleFig(id=1165681913583907024, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Parameters of 16MnR low alloy steel vertical cylindrical storage tank

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数
D/m 30.48
H/m 12.91
t/mm 8.92
装量水平/% 25,50,75
E/Pa 2.06×1011
γ 0.3
), ArticleFig(id=1165681913638432977, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

16MnR低合金钢立式圆柱形储罐参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数
D/m 30.48
H/m 12.91
t/mm 8.92
装量水平/% 25,50,75
E/Pa 2.06×1011
γ 0.3
), ArticleFig(id=1165681913701347538, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Random parameters,such as wind speed

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
随机参数 分布类型
ρf/(kg·m-3) 对数正态
Kz 指数
Kt Weibull
Kd 伽马
v/(m·s-1) Weibull
), ArticleFig(id=1165681913772650707, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1148106700701299044, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

风速等随机参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
随机参数 分布类型
ρf/(kg·m-3) 对数正态
Kz 指数
Kt Weibull
Kd 伽马
v/(m·s-1) Weibull
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基于蒙特卡罗法的立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效机制
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潘科 1 , 牛颖承 2
中国安全科学学报 | 安全工程技术 2025,35(2): 89-94
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中国安全科学学报 | 安全工程技术 2025, 35(2): 89-94
基于蒙特卡罗法的立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效机制
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潘科1 , 牛颖承2
作者信息
  • 1 大连交通大学 安全工程系,辽宁 大连 116028
  • 2 北京交通大学 交通运输学院 北京 100044
  • 潘科 (1980—),男,江苏无锡人,硕士,副教授,主要从事系统风险评价、事故后果仿真和应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

Buckling failure mechanism of vertical cylindrical tank shell based on Monte Carlo method
Ke PAN1 , Yingcheng NIU2
Affiliations
  • 1 Department of Safety Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian Liaoning 116028,China
  • 2 School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China
出版时间: 2025-02-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.1655
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为了降低飓风作用下沿海地区石油化工储罐的失效风险,基于强度-应力干涉理论,建立立式圆柱形储罐在风载荷作用下的静态失效模型,通过某原油储罐实例确定其屈曲失效的临界风速,并针对风速等参数不同随机分布情况,应用蒙特卡罗法进一步绘制壳体屈曲失效概率曲线,探究其静态条件下的屈曲失效机制,并确定不同装量水平下的失效概率。结果表明:针对立式圆柱形储罐,在相同风载荷作用下,装量水平为25%、50%、75%时,导致储罐壳体屈曲失效的临界风速分别为60.67、65.38、69.79 m/s;根据屈曲失效概率曲线,储罐装量水平对储罐抵抗风载荷的影响较大,装量水平为25%的失效概率远大于装量水平为50%的失效概率。因此,立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效机制为:装量水平过低,在风载荷作用下易导致储罐发生壳体屈曲失效,装量水平越高立式圆柱形储罐可抵抗风载荷的能力越强。沿海等化工企业可以采取适当增加装量水平等保护措施以抵抗强风载荷。

蒙特卡罗法  /  风载荷  /  立式圆柱形储罐  /  储罐壳体  /  屈曲失效  /  临界风速

In order to reduce the failure risk of petrochemical storage tanks in coastal areas under the influence of hurricanes,the failure model for vertical cylindrical tanks under wind load was established based on the strength stress interference theory. The critical wind speed for the buckling failure was determined by an example of a crude oil storage tank. For different random distributions of parameters,such as wind speed,the Monte Carlo method was also used to plot the probability curve of shell buckling failure. The buckling failure mechanism under static conditions was investigated,and the failure probability at different loading levels was determined under static conditions. The results show that the critical wind speeds are 60.67,65.38 and 69.79 m/s respectively when the loading levels are 25%,50% and 75% under the same wind load. According to the failure probability curve,the failure probability of the loading level of 25% is significant greater than that at 50%. Therefore,it can be seen that the buckling failure mechanism of the vertical cylindrical storage tank shell is as follows: the loading level is too low,which can easily lead to buckling failure of the storage tank under wind load. The higher the loading level,and the stronger the wind load resistance of the vertical cylindrical storage tank. Appropriate measures can be taken to increase the loading level to resist strong wind loads in the coastal chemical industries.

Monte Carlo method  /  wind load  /  vertical cylindrical tank  /  tank shell  /  buckling failure  /  critical wind speed
潘科, 牛颖承. 基于蒙特卡罗法的立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效机制. 中国安全科学学报, 2025 , 35 (2) : 89 -94 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.1655
Ke PAN, Yingcheng NIU. Buckling failure mechanism of vertical cylindrical tank shell based on Monte Carlo method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (2) : 89 -94 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.1655
地震、飓风、洪水、雷电等自然灾害对我国造成极大的危害[1],其中,飓风一般伴随强风、暴雨,严重威胁人们的生命财产安全,对于民生、农业、经济等造成极大的冲击,是一种影响较大,危害严重的自然灾害,尤其是对于沿海等化工园区,飓风可能会造成储罐失效,导致储存的危险介质释放,造成工业次生灾害。2005年,在墨西哥湾的卡特里飓风和丽塔飓风,共造成1 836人死亡和1 250亿美元的财产损失,在此次灾害中,炼油厂和化工厂中储罐的有害物质和洪水混在一起,巨大的污染再一次加剧了灾难,也加重了经济损失;哈维飓风导致47起油罐损坏事件,造成约200万L汽油、原油或其他化学品泄漏[2]。因此,研究自然灾害引起的事故灾难具有重要意义。
近年来,学者们在风载荷导致储罐失效方面作了较多相关研究。OLIVAR等[3]建立了立式储罐受到风载荷作用造成壳弯曲、碎片侵袭等多种情况下的失效模型,研究了大气储罐在风载荷作用下的易损性曲线。KAMESHWAR等[4]设计提出地面储罐防风暴潮屈曲加固环。MAYORGA等[5]应用Na-tech方法研究了储罐参数化易损性曲线的发展。刘明等[6]分析了风载荷作用下立式低温储罐动力可靠性,得到了随机风载荷作用下储罐结构动力可靠性所需全部数字特征。XU Dayong等[7]为在极端风载荷下保持储罐的完整性,提出定量方法评估储罐最低液位。HUANG Min等[8]研究了在飓风与洪水侵袭下洪水速度、洪水淹没高度和液体填充水平这3个因素对储罐的影响。现有研究多为建立有限元模型分析储罐在风载荷作用下的影响因素,并未研究储罐在风载荷作用下的不同失效机理及失效概率。
鉴于此,笔者拟建立立式圆柱形储罐在飓风作用下屈曲失效模型,确定其失效临界风速,并利用蒙特卡罗法确定其失效概率,以期为化工储罐的防强风设计及管理提供依据。
当风载荷冲击立式圆柱形储罐时,立式圆柱形储罐理论上可能发生的失效模式主要有壳体屈曲和储罐倾覆,但研究表明:储罐直接倾覆的发生概率极低,风致屈曲是风载荷作用下储罐最常见的破坏形式[9],2002年,关岛飓风造成储罐外壳弯曲,2005年,丽塔飓风造成储罐外壳的局部屈曲,均为该情况。因此,文中主要研究立式圆柱形储罐在风载荷作用下的壳体屈曲及失效机理。
在机械产品中,当组件的强度大于受到的应力时,其保持正常状态;当组件的强度小于应力时,其发生失效。把应力和强度的分布在同一坐标系中表示,当强度的均值大于应力的均值时,在图中阴影部分表示的应力和强度“干涉区”内就可能发生强度小于应力即失效的情况。这种根据应力和强度干涉情况,计算干涉区内强度小于应力的概率(失效概率)的模型,称为应力-强度干涉模型[10]。文中应用储罐力学失效模型计算出风载荷作用下应力和强度的大小,应用应力-强度干涉理论来建立立式圆柱形储罐在飓风作用下的失效概率及临界条件,用于研究立式圆柱形储罐的屈曲失效机理。
立式圆柱形储罐结构通常具有复杂的几何形状和材料特性,同时,与周围环境和支撑结构之间存在多种相互作用,但文中主要考虑的为飓风对立式圆柱形储罐壳体的影响,这些边界条件对其影响较小。为简化研究,可以将问题进行边界条件简化,以整体性方法考虑飓风对立式圆柱形储罐失效的影响以降低计算成本和复杂性。
选取化工罐区的立式圆柱形储罐作为整体研究对象。风载荷冲击立式圆柱形储罐时,对立式圆柱形储罐可能会造成壳体屈曲,当风压Pw超过立式圆柱形储罐可抵抗强度,则会发生壳体屈曲,即风压Pw大于罐内临界压力Pc(即罐内材料的最大阻力压力)与罐内流体施加的压力Pf之和时储罐失效,如图1所示。图1中,h为储存液体的高度,m;D为立式圆柱形储罐直径,m;H为储罐罐顶到地面的高度,m。

P c = 2 · E · t D 1 ( n 2 - 1 ) 1 + 2 · n · H π · D 2 + t 2 3 · D 2 · ( 1 - v 2 ) n 2 - 1 + 2 · n 2 - 1 - v 1 + 2 · n · H π · D

立式圆柱形储罐临界压力Pc的计算如下[11]:
P c = 2 · E · t D 1 ( n 2 - 1 ) 1 + 2 · n · H π · D 2 + t 2 3 · D 2 · ( 1 - V 2 ) n 2 - 1 + 2 · n 2 - 1 - V 1 + 2 · n · H π · D
式中:E为弹性模量,Pa;t为储罐壳厚度,m;n为为了使Pcr最小而引入的参数;γ为泊松比。
立式圆柱形储罐内部储存液体流体压力Pf可以抵抗风压,其计算如下:
P f = ρ f · g · h
式中:ρf为储罐内部储存液体密度,kg/m3g为重力加速度,取9.8 m/s2
立式圆柱形储罐抵抗外压强度为内部流体压力与储罐临界压力之和Pr,计算如下:
P r = P c + P f
储罐高度与周长不同会影响风压大小,本文假定沿储罐高度上的风压为恒定值,并使用OLIVAR等[3]的沿储罐周长估算风压的模型估算储罐周围的非均匀风压P:
P = C p · q · G s
其中,
q = 0.613 · K Z · K t · K d · v 2

C p θ = i = 0 m a i cos i θ = - 0.54 + 0.16 D H +

0.28 + 0.04 D H c o s θ + 1.04 - 0.2 D H c o s ( 2 θ ) +

0.36 - 0.05 D H c o s ( 3 θ ) +   - 0.14 - 0.05 D H c o s ( 4 θ )
式中:ai为傅里叶系数;i为傅里叶级数中的谐波次数;q为速度压,Pa(由式(5)计算得到[8]);Cp为风压系数(由式(6)计算得到[8]);Gs为阵风因子;Kz为速度压力暴露系数;Kt为地形因子;Kd为风向因子;v为开阔地形10m处3s阵风风速,m/s;θ为迎风方向测量的径度(0≤θ<360°)。式(6)适用于封闭储罐,风压为不均匀风压。
根据等效均匀外压公式计算整个罐体外表面风压[3]:
q e = k w · P m a x
k w = 0.46 · 1 + 0.1 c m ω · t D 2
式中:kw为与储罐设计相关的系数;qe为等效的均匀外压,Pa;Pmax为非均匀风压P的最大值,Pa;cm为外部压力屈曲因子;ω为储罐壳体的长度参数。
考虑到飓风动态性对储罐产生的影响有其过程性,而文中主要研究飓风对立式圆柱形储罐失效临界风速及概率,即飓风最后对储罐壳体造成的破坏结果。飓风的动态性较为偶然,较难以建立数学模型的方法准确考虑其影响因素。例如:若动态风载荷的频率接近储罐的固有频率时,可能会引起共振效应,共振会导致储罐的振动幅度增大,从而对储罐的结构稳定性产生不利影响。在共振状态下,储罐的应力和变形将显著增加,可能导致失效风速的降低。但是这种情况为偶然情况,且对储罐最终是否会出现失效影响较小,因此文中主要基于静态考虑风载荷对储罐屈曲失效的影响。
结合式(1)—式(8)及说明,并根据应力-强度干涉理论,当风载荷产生的均匀外压大于立式圆柱形储罐抵抗外压强度时,即二者差值大于等于0时,储罐壳体发生屈曲,储罐失效;当风载荷产生的均匀外压小于立式圆柱形储罐抵抗外压强度时,即二者差值小于0时,储罐可正常工作,因此立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效条件如下:
i f q e - P r 0 ( ) i f q e - P r < 0 ( )
飓风、台风和龙卷风等自然灾害有可能对其途经的地区造成严重后果,不同等级的强风载荷对建筑、设施的破坏程度不同,文献[9]规定了不同风速下飓风对建筑物、设施等潜在危害的定性描述,具体见表1。文中主要研究飓风等强风对立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效的影响机制。
基于第1节的力学模型,选取化工行业常用的原油储罐,并以计算原油储罐风致壳体屈曲时经典的A.GODOY[12]模型参数作为建模参数,见表2
根据式(9)可得,储罐壳体屈曲失效条件为qe-Pr≥0,为方便计算,设剩余应力Pm=qe-Pr
由式(1)、式(6)可知:风载荷对储罐的作用力与作用点迎风方向和风速这2个参数有关,应用Matlab软件得到立式圆柱形储罐的壳体剩余应力与风速、径度关系,如图2所示。由图2可确定,风载荷作用力最大的迎风方向测量的径度θmax
图2可知:当迎风方向测量的径度为0°时,风载荷作用力最大,因此当θ=0°时,应用Matlab软件绘制风速与Pm的关系图,并确定立式圆柱形储罐在25%、50%、75%的装量水平下的临界风速,根据应力-强度干涉理论,当Pm≥0时储罐壳体屈曲失效,如图3所示。
图3可知:当装量水平为25%时,储罐壳体屈曲失效的临界风速为60.67m/s,如图3中*点;当装量水平为50%时,储罐屈曲失效的临界风速为65.38m/s,如图3中&点;当装量水平为75%时,储罐屈曲失效的临界风速为69.79m/s,如图3中#点。结合表1中对飓风的分级,求得的临界风速在飓风等级为4级的设定风速范围内,与文献[9]定性表述的危害一致。由此可知:随着装量水平的不断增加,储罐壳体屈曲失效的临界风速也在不断增大。因选择立式圆柱形储罐材料与形状参数有所不同,根据模型所求得壳体屈曲失效的临界风速也有所不同,但是装量水平的大小对壳体屈曲失效临界风速有影响,并且成正比关系。
蒙特卡罗法是一种基于随机抽样和统计推断的数值计算方法,通过设定概率分布抽样重复生成某个事件在特定条件下发生的概率,通过大量统计模拟运算获得实验结果。本文以储罐壳体屈曲失效的临界风速为基础,以风载荷对储罐作用力大于储罐可抵抗强度作为其失效条件,采用蒙特卡罗法对不同条件下储罐壳体屈曲失效模型进行多次迭代,获得其失效概率及概率曲线。其原理及流程如图4所示,图4中,F为屈曲失效概率,Nd为失效次数,N为程序设定的迭代次数。
根据图4分析立式圆柱形储罐的屈曲失效,采用表2的参数,蒙特卡罗法计算中所选取的储罐随机参数及其分布类型见表3。物理参数的可变性是根据储罐的每个元件所承受的温度和压力条件的变化来估计的,模型所有参数可根据国际标准API-650和ASME-7报告的值进行估计,根据陈国初等[13]对风速概率分布的研究,设置随机风速参数服从Weibull分布。
对模型进行多次迭代,每一次模拟均会生成一个随机参数值,已知模型中各个参数的值,可对储罐进行失效评估,文中应用应力-强度干涉理论,建立模型,当Pm≥0,储罐屈曲失效。
储罐的不同装量水平影响壳体在风载荷作用下的力学响应及屈曲失效概率,文中应用蒙特卡罗法针对不同装量水平下的立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效模型进行分析。根据图4表2的储罐参数、表3的随机参数,应用Matlab软件得到立式圆柱形储罐在不同装量水平下的壳体屈曲失效概率曲线,如图5所示。根据图5,可以得到该储罐在不同装量水平、不同风速条件下壳体的屈曲失效概率。
图5可知:在同一装量水平下,随着风速的增大,立式圆柱形储罐的壳体屈曲失效概率也在不断增加。对比图5中3条失效概率曲线与图3可知:在25%装量水平下的壳体彻底屈曲失效风速为59.24m/s,与第2节中分析立式圆柱形储罐在25%装量水平下的失效风速(60.67m/s)近似相等;同理,针对50%、75%装量水平下得到的失效概率曲线中的彻底失效风速与第2节中得到的近似相等。对比3条屈曲失效概率曲线,可发现随着装量水平的增加,曲线整体向右移动,当风速为50m/s时,储罐为25%装量水平的失效概率大于40%,而在50%的装量水平下,失效概率小于40%。在相同风速下,随着装量水平的增加,储罐壳体屈曲失效概率降低,因此可以得出,储罐装量水平的不同对储罐抵抗风载荷的影响较大,装量水平过低,在风载荷作用下易导致储罐发生壳体屈曲失效。
1) 采用强度-应力干涉理论建立立式圆柱形储罐壳体屈曲失效模型,该模型可通过蒙特卡罗法计算储罐屈曲失效概率,通过失效临界风速判定储罐的安全状态。
2) 随着装量水平的增加,在相同风载荷作用下,储罐屈曲失效概率降低。因此,在易受到强风载荷作用的沿海立式圆柱形储罐可增加装量水平或增加保护措施抵抗强风载荷保证立式圆柱形储罐安全。
3) 文中仅建立了静态风载荷作用下储罐壳体屈曲失效模型,未来将研究动态风载荷对储罐屈曲失效的影响。
  • 中国职业安全健康协会创新项目(CXCY-2021-18)
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2025年第35卷第2期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.02.1655
  • 接收时间:2024-09-13
  • 首发时间:2025-07-05
  • 出版时间:2025-02-28
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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-13
  • 修回日期:2024-11-16
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中国职业安全健康协会创新项目(CXCY-2021-18)
作者信息
    1 大连交通大学 安全工程系,辽宁 大连 116028
    2 北京交通大学 交通运输学院 北京 100044
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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