Article(id=1277328336992994131, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1277328335906669390, articleNumber=1003-3033(2026)05-0279-08, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.05.0141, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1768320000000, receivedDateStr=2026-01-14, revisedDate=1773936000000, revisedDateStr=2026-03-20, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1782468407152, onlineDateStr=2026-06-26, pubDate=1779897600000, pubDateStr=2026-05-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1782468407152, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-06-26, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1782468407151, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1782468407151, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1277328335906669390, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2026', volume='36', issue='5', pageStart='1', pageEnd='318', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1779897600000', pubDateStr='2026-05-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1782468406892, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1782867658151, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1279002917143286724, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1277328335906669390, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1279002917143286725, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1277328335906669390, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=279, endPage=286, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1277328338192565078, articleId=1277328336992994131, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Vulnerability assessment of airport runways under deliberate attacks, columnId=1277328338121261909, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Public Safety and Emergency Management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To maintain the operational capability of airports during wartime, an analysis was conducted on the vulnerability of the airport runway to deliberate attacks with conventional weapons. By analyzing the target and functional characteristics of airport runways, a vulnerability assessment framework for airport runways under deliberate attacks by multiple types of conventional weapons is constructed based on the Monte Carlo method. A airport runway vulnerability assessment model is established, and a runway at an airport on the coast of China is selected as a case study. The results show that the binary attack strategy is significantly superior to the random attack strategy. When attacking airport runway targets, the impact of the weapon's circular error probable (CEP) decreases as the weapon's lethal radius increases, while the impact of the weapon's lethal radius decreases as the weapon's CEP increases. Both the CEP and lethal radius impacts decrease with an increase in the number of strikes. Optimization of attack strategies can to some extent compensate for the shortcomings of weapon performance. Under the binary attack strategy, the strike effectiveness of different weapon systems can be ranked in descending order as follows: conventional foreign cruise missiles, large unmanned aerial vehicles, long-range rocket launchers, and howitzers. In terms of protective measures, measures such as multi-band smoke screen interference, Global Positioning System (GPS) jamming, and enhancing the strength grade of concrete can be adopted to reduce the accuracy of weapon strikes and the radius of weapon damage, thereby improving the take-off and landing efficiency of the airport runway.

, authors=Haizhou Tang, Huadong Gong**, Zhilong Chen, Xudong Zhao, Yangyang Sun, Fei Wang, authorsList=Haizhou Tang, Huadong Gong, Zhilong Chen, Xudong Zhao, Yangyang Sun, Fei Wang, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Huadong Gong, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1277328345276744560, articleId=1277328336992994131, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性评估, columnId=1277328338280645463, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=公共安全与应急管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为维持机场战时功能正常运转,开展常规武器蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性分析。通过分析机场跑道目标特性和功能特性,基于蒙特卡罗法构建多类型常规武器蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性评估框架,建立机场跑道易损性评估模型,并以我国沿海某机场跑道为案例进行评估。结果表明:蓄意攻击下二分法攻击策略明显优于随机攻击策略。当攻击机场跑道目标时,武器圆概率偏差的影响随武器毁伤半径的增大而减小,武器毁伤半径的影响也随着武器圆概率偏差的增大而减小,而武器圆概率偏差和毁伤半径的影响均随着打击数量的增大而减小。攻击策略上的优化在一定程度上能够弥补武器性能的不足,在二分法攻击策略下,按打击效果排序分别为外军典型巡航导弹、大型无人机、远程火箭炮和榴弹炮。考虑防护时,可通过采取多波段烟幕干扰、全球定位系统(GPS)干扰、提升混凝土强度等级等防护措施降低武器打击精度和武器毁伤半径,提升机场跑道起降效能。

, authors=唐海洲, 龚华栋**, 陈志龙, 赵旭东, 孙阳阳, 王菲, authorsList=唐海洲, 龚华栋, 陈志龙, 赵旭东, 孙阳阳, 王菲, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=龚华栋, authorNote=

唐海洲 (1994—),男,广西河池人,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为关键基础设施防护。E-mail:

陈志龙 教授。

赵旭东 副教授。

孙阳阳 讲师。

王菲 副教授。

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** 龚华栋(1975—),男,浙江慈溪人,博士,教授,主要从事关键基础设施防护方面的研究。E-mail:
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唐海洲 (1994—),男,广西河池人,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为关键基础设施防护。E-mail:

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陈志龙 教授。

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陈志龙 教授。

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赵旭东 副教授。

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赵旭东 副教授。

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孙阳阳 讲师。

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孙阳阳 讲师。

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王菲 副教授。

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王菲 副教授。

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Journal of Ballistics, 2023, 35(3):105-110., articleTitle=Operational effectiveness analysis and application of conventional missile blocking airport runway based on system effectiveness analysis, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1278415556399313619, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2017, volume=null, issue=6, pageStart=14, pageEnd=19, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[15], rfOrder=26, authorNames=张良, journalName=生命与灾害, refType=null, unstructuredReference=张良. 来自“地平线”的攻击:“战斧”式巡航导弹对叙空军基地实施精确打击[J]. 生命与灾害, 2017(6):14-19., articleTitle=来自“地平线”的攻击:“战斧”式巡航导弹对叙空军基地实施精确打击, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1278415552343421624, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, awardId=51708554, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金资助(51708554), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1278415529098588779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1278415529127948908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, companyId=1278415529098588779, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=National Defense Engineering College, Army Engineering University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210007, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1278415529140531821, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, companyId=1278415529098588779, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=陆军工程大学 国防工程学院, 江苏 南京 210007)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1278415547947791008, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=A runway at a coastal airport, figureFileSmall=PM7E/9ycP3HpnJ3ngBK7VA==, figureFileBig=dlffo72Q7SsiWTT5aejtwA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415548044260001, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图1, caption=沿海某机场跑道, figureFileSmall=PM7E/9ycP3HpnJ3ngBK7VA==, figureFileBig=dlffo72Q7SsiWTT5aejtwA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415548383998626, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Minimum operating strip of airport runway, figureFileSmall=/awlA4Jrqjjmz9kL66mnFA==, figureFileBig=s1cKorPNCyZuHho1NWjOOA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415548463690403, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图2, caption=机场跑道最小起降带

注:L为机场跑道长度,m;W为机场跑道宽度,m;θ为最小起降带轴线和机场跑道长轴的角度。

, figureFileSmall=/awlA4Jrqjjmz9kL66mnFA==, figureFileBig=s1cKorPNCyZuHho1NWjOOA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415548790846116, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=A framework of vulnerability simulation of airport runways, figureFileSmall=cViOcOntRNN+mEIRUvhLLw==, figureFileBig=fVHsNEcwi6N0ep+VffQfww==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415548887315109, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图3, caption=机场跑道易损性仿真框架

注:圆概率偏差(Circular Error Probable,CEP);R为炮弹毁伤半径;x,y为最小起降带中心坐标位置。

, figureFileSmall=cViOcOntRNN+mEIRUvhLLw==, figureFileBig=fVHsNEcwi6N0ep+VffQfww==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415548958618278, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Coordinate transformation, figureFileSmall=ppr67TYwuAn/LNiP3+kmmw==, figureFileBig=4rXdu0xb1Sv+aqGMdJ4ISg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415550623756967, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图4, caption=坐标变换, figureFileSmall=ppr67TYwuAn/LNiP3+kmmw==, figureFileBig=4rXdu0xb1Sv+aqGMdJ4ISg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415550703448744, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.5, caption=Craters on airport runways under a random attack strategy, figureFileSmall=5m8hwDlHfPnPbg63/qWkug==, figureFileBig=MVGEo69s06ZDOgmCw7JSJw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415550879609513, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图5, caption=随机攻击策略下机场跑道弹坑, figureFileSmall=5m8hwDlHfPnPbg63/qWkug==, figureFileBig=MVGEo69s06ZDOgmCw7JSJw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415550959301290, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.6, caption=Airport runway target aiming point under the bisection method strategy, figureFileSmall=hr7UPA28VPD1ODnXbczuIg==, figureFileBig=76bBcC8uIGg7WidBu1m4DQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551047381675, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图6, caption=二分法策略下机场跑道目标瞄准点, figureFileSmall=hr7UPA28VPD1ODnXbczuIg==, figureFileBig=76bBcC8uIGg7WidBu1m4DQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551122879148, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.7, caption=Performance curve of airport runway takeoff and landing under deliberate attacks from typical weapons, figureFileSmall=KgFSGr11t79+2Hc7bpFD4g==, figureFileBig=NGb9Jg+Y7ynodDyB+U2y9A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551194182317, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图7, caption=典型武器蓄意攻击下机场跑道起降效能曲线, figureFileSmall=KgFSGr11t79+2Hc7bpFD4g==, figureFileBig=NGb9Jg+Y7ynodDyB+U2y9A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551340982958, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.8, caption=Performance curve of airport runway takeoff and landing under random attacks from typical weapons, figureFileSmall=AaQX8E5vzxs17FAjxsiSEA==, figureFileBig=taHunK2VS8wGm2UCEhlS+g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551412286127, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图8, caption=典型武器随机攻击下机场跑道起降效能曲线, figureFileSmall=AaQX8E5vzxs17FAjxsiSEA==, figureFileBig=taHunK2VS8wGm2UCEhlS+g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551471006384, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.9, caption=Vulnerability curves of airport runways under varying strike accuracy conditions, figureFileSmall=rOJnAWEDI4L/PFB1rae3Mg==, figureFileBig=b7146yxISVZeyLQyoFgjDw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551559086769, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图9, caption=不同打击精度条件下机场跑道易损性曲线, figureFileSmall=rOJnAWEDI4L/PFB1rae3Mg==, figureFileBig=b7146yxISVZeyLQyoFgjDw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551714276018, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Fig.10, caption=Vulnerability curves of airport runways under different weapon lethal radii, figureFileSmall=tjEGuMR6W3sLXV3esSnp7w==, figureFileBig=VgUCebwUbImlwR2kFksCfQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551785579187, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=图10, caption=不同武器毁伤半径下机场跑道易损性曲线, figureFileSmall=tjEGuMR6W3sLXV3esSnp7w==, figureFileBig=VgUCebwUbImlwR2kFksCfQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1278415551865270964, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Minimum operating strip of a typical fighter aircraft

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
机型 IDF 幻影2000-5 F-16
最小起降带长度l/m 800 457 350
最小起降带宽度w/m 20 20 20
), ArticleFig(id=1278415551936574133, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

典型战斗机最小起降带[12]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
机型 IDF 幻影2000-5 F-16
最小起降带长度l/m 800 457 350
最小起降带宽度w/m 20 20 20
), ArticleFig(id=1278415552016265910, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Typical weapon performance parameters for runway denial

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

武器
名称
射程/
km
导弹
CEP/m
战斗部 R/m
1 外军典型
大型无人机
2 87 kg激光
制导炸弹
6
2 外军典型巡
航导弹[15]
1300 3 454 kg
高爆弹头
8
3 外军典型远
程火箭炮
300 5 227 mm重
型火箭弹
5
4 外军典型榴
弹炮
40 10 155 mm
制导炮弹
2
), ArticleFig(id=1278415552192426679, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1277328336992994131, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

封锁机场跑道典型武器性能参数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

武器
名称
射程/
km
导弹
CEP/m
战斗部 R/m
1 外军典型
大型无人机
2 87 kg激光
制导炸弹
6
2 外军典型巡
航导弹[15]
1300 3 454 kg
高爆弹头
8
3 外军典型远
程火箭炮
300 5 227 mm重
型火箭弹
5
4 外军典型榴
弹炮
40 10 155 mm
制导炮弹
2
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唐海洲 , 龚华栋 ** , 陈志龙 , 赵旭东 , 孙阳阳 , 王菲
中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全与应急管理 2026,36(5): 279-286
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蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性评估
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唐海洲 , 龚华栋** , 陈志龙, 赵旭东, 孙阳阳, 王菲
作者信息
  • 陆军工程大学 国防工程学院, 江苏 南京 210007
通讯作者:
** 龚华栋(1975—),男,浙江慈溪人,博士,教授,主要从事关键基础设施防护方面的研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

唐海洲 (1994—),男,广西河池人,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为关键基础设施防护。E-mail:

陈志龙 教授。

赵旭东 副教授。

孙阳阳 讲师。

王菲 副教授。

Vulnerability assessment of airport runways under deliberate attacks
Haizhou Tang , Huadong Gong** , Zhilong Chen, Xudong Zhao, Yangyang Sun, Fei Wang
Affiliations
  • National Defense Engineering College, Army Engineering University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210007, China
出版时间: 2026-05-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.05.0141
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为维持机场战时功能正常运转,开展常规武器蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性分析。通过分析机场跑道目标特性和功能特性,基于蒙特卡罗法构建多类型常规武器蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性评估框架,建立机场跑道易损性评估模型,并以我国沿海某机场跑道为案例进行评估。结果表明:蓄意攻击下二分法攻击策略明显优于随机攻击策略。当攻击机场跑道目标时,武器圆概率偏差的影响随武器毁伤半径的增大而减小,武器毁伤半径的影响也随着武器圆概率偏差的增大而减小,而武器圆概率偏差和毁伤半径的影响均随着打击数量的增大而减小。攻击策略上的优化在一定程度上能够弥补武器性能的不足,在二分法攻击策略下,按打击效果排序分别为外军典型巡航导弹、大型无人机、远程火箭炮和榴弹炮。考虑防护时,可通过采取多波段烟幕干扰、全球定位系统(GPS)干扰、提升混凝土强度等级等防护措施降低武器打击精度和武器毁伤半径,提升机场跑道起降效能。

蓄意攻击  /  机场跑道  /  易损性  /  蒙特卡罗  /  常规武器  /  最小起降带

To maintain the operational capability of airports during wartime, an analysis was conducted on the vulnerability of the airport runway to deliberate attacks with conventional weapons. By analyzing the target and functional characteristics of airport runways, a vulnerability assessment framework for airport runways under deliberate attacks by multiple types of conventional weapons is constructed based on the Monte Carlo method. A airport runway vulnerability assessment model is established, and a runway at an airport on the coast of China is selected as a case study. The results show that the binary attack strategy is significantly superior to the random attack strategy. When attacking airport runway targets, the impact of the weapon's circular error probable (CEP) decreases as the weapon's lethal radius increases, while the impact of the weapon's lethal radius decreases as the weapon's CEP increases. Both the CEP and lethal radius impacts decrease with an increase in the number of strikes. Optimization of attack strategies can to some extent compensate for the shortcomings of weapon performance. Under the binary attack strategy, the strike effectiveness of different weapon systems can be ranked in descending order as follows: conventional foreign cruise missiles, large unmanned aerial vehicles, long-range rocket launchers, and howitzers. In terms of protective measures, measures such as multi-band smoke screen interference, Global Positioning System (GPS) jamming, and enhancing the strength grade of concrete can be adopted to reduce the accuracy of weapon strikes and the radius of weapon damage, thereby improving the take-off and landing efficiency of the airport runway.

deliberate attack  /  airport runways  /  vulnerability assessment  /  Monte Carlo  /  conventional weapons  /  minimum operating strip
唐海洲, 龚华栋, 陈志龙, 赵旭东, 孙阳阳, 王菲. 蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性评估. 中国安全科学学报, 2026 , 36 (5) : 279 -286 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.05.0141
Haizhou Tang, Huadong Gong, Zhilong Chen, Xudong Zhao, Yangyang Sun, Fei Wang. Vulnerability assessment of airport runways under deliberate attacks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (5) : 279 -286 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.05.0141
机场作为国家重要交通基础设施,是现代社会交通运输体系中的重要组成部分,具有极其重要的地位和作用。根据《“十四五”民用航空发展规划》报告,预计到2025年,中国正常运营的民用运输机场数量将超过270个,旅客运输量预计9.3亿人次,货邮运输量将达到950万t[1]。而在军事运用领域,机场作为军事运输、战略部署和应急反应的关键基础设施,对于国家安全和防御具有重要意义[2]
当前,对机场跑道易损性研究主要分为自然灾害领域和蓄意攻击领域2方面。在自然灾害背景下,学者们将短时强降雨和短时强降雪等不利气象作为致灾因子[3-4],构建极端天气下机场道面功能易损性模型,研究了极端自然灾害对机场跑道性能的影响。但由于自然灾害的发生概率是相对独立客观的,不具有主观能动性和攻击的策略性[5],不能满足当前复杂国际形势下我国机场目标的安全防卫需求。而在蓄意攻击背景下,对机场跑道易损性研究主要集中在以下2个方面,①研究机场跑道在典型战斗部打击下的毁伤效果[6-7],主要是利用数值模拟和试验相结合的方法进行典型武器打击下机场跑道的毁伤评估。②结合计算机仿真技术,基于蒙特卡罗算法构建机场跑道易损性评估模型,仿真计算机场跑道易损性,其毁伤评估指标主要采用跑道失效概率(Disable Probability of Runway,DPR)来进行衡量[8-10]。综上,机场跑道易损性研究中存在以下局限性:①研究主要采用机场跑道失效概率作为评估指标来评估机场跑道易损性,即在一定数量常规武器打击条件下,机场跑道被封锁成功的概率。其研究局限性在于当武器打击数量较少时,机场跑道将无法被封锁,这时将无法体现机场跑道在少量武器打击下的机场跑道效能衰减情况。②现有研究主要考虑常规攻击对机场跑道易损性的影响,未考虑蓄意攻击策略对机场跑道易损性的影响。
鉴于此,笔者拟提出采用机场跑道起降效能下降比例作为战时机场跑道易损性评价指标,构建常规武器蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性评估模型,仿真分析不同武器圆概率偏差、毁伤半径和打击数量条件下的机场跑道易损性,并以我国沿海某机场跑道为案例进行验证,实现常规武器蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性定量评估,以期为机场跑道的封锁和防御策略的制定提供参考借鉴。
机场通常由机场跑道、滑行道、停机坪区域、航站楼设施、塔台、机库及相应配套设施组成,其中,机场跑道作为机场飞行区最关键的基础设施,是承担飞机执行起飞、降落的唯一物理通道,也是机场维持整体运作功能的关键,典型机场跑道如图1所示。机场跑道作为典型长大线性目标,其几何形态呈狭长矩形状,这一特性决定了其在空间布局上的延展性和方向性。作为航空运输的核心设施,机场跑道的长度与宽度需满足各类飞行器起降需求,确保飞行安全与效率。通常情况下,其几何尺寸根据机场不同类型飞机起降需求从《民用机场飞行区技术标准》[11]中进行选择。
最小起降带是指在特定条件下,飞机能够执行安全起飞和降落所需的最小矩形跑道区域。当前不同机场飞行区跑道等级各异,但对于特定飞机而言,飞机起降通常仅需机场跑道中某一部分完整的矩形起降区域,该区域轴线可与机场跑道轴线平行或呈一定夹角。考虑到国产飞机最小起降带数据的安全性,以常见典型战斗机所需最小起降带数据为例进行案例研究,其结果同样具有代表性。典型战斗机最小起降带参数见表1
对于固定翼飞机最小起降带的选择,当前有2种典型起降模式,模式1为最小起降带轴线方向和机场跑道长轴方向一致;模式2为最小起降带轴线方向与机场跑道长轴方向成一定角度。在应急条件下,当起降模式1条件无法满足时,为优化跑道使用效率而采用的常见起降模式。在某些特殊情况下,也可能是为避免高大建筑物对飞行安全的影响,需要采用模式2来确保飞机起降过程中具有足够的净空高度。2种机场跑道起降模式如图2所示。
一般情况下,由于W有限,L较长,通常θ相对较小。最小起降带轴线与机场跑道轴线之间的夹角为[-θ,θ],具体θ值可通过下式计算得出:
$ l \sin \theta+w \cos \theta=W$
通常情况下,机场跑道可根据位置的不同划分为若干条最小起降带。当机场跑道遭受多枚炮弹蓄意攻击后,炮弹在机场跑道上将形成若干个具有一定毁伤半径的弹坑。
对任意给定的最小起降带,若其最小起降带区域内都存在炮弹实际落点,或受到来自最小起降带区域外炮弹落点爆炸所形成弹坑的直接影响,则该最小起降带被视为已被成功封锁。
随着武器打击数量的增加,被封锁的最小起降带数量不断增加。当机场跑道内所有最小起降带均被成功封锁,则认为整条机场跑道被完全封锁。
假设正常运行状态下,机场跑道根据位置的不同可生成最小起降带数量为M条,受到蓄意攻击后机场跑道未被封锁的最小起降带数量为N条,则机场跑道起降效能P可定义为:
$P=\frac{N}{M}$
基于蒙特卡罗法构建蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性仿真评估框架,如图3所示。
坐标变换如图4所示,设大坐标系原点为机场跑道几何中心点o,小坐标系原点为最小起降带几何中心点o',大坐标系下炮弹落点坐标为(xi,yi),小坐标系下炮弹落点坐标为(xi',yi')。
在进行坐标变换时,分别以机场跑道中心和最小起降带中心为原点建立2个直角坐标系xoyx'o'y',设小坐标系x'o'y'相对于大坐标系xoy的位移和转角分别为Δx,Δy,θ
当最小起降带发生平移或旋转时,坐标系x'o'y'同步发生变化,根据需要可计算出炮弹落点在新坐标系下的坐标。
坐标变换如下式[13]:
$ x^{\prime}=(x-\Delta x) \cos \theta+(y-\Delta y) \sin \theta$
$ y^{\prime}=(y-\Delta y) \cos \theta+(x-\Delta x) \sin \theta$
将上式改写为矩阵形式:
$ \left[\begin{array}{l}x^{\prime} \\y^{\prime}\end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{cc}\cos \theta & \sin \theta \\-\sin \theta & \cos \theta\end{array}\right]\left(\left[\begin{array}{l}x \\y\end{array}\right]-\left[\begin{array}{l}\Delta x \\\Delta y\end{array}\right]\right)$
若要进行坐标逆变换,可按下式进行计算:
$ \left[\begin{array}{l}x \\y \end{array}\right]=\left[\begin{array}{cc}\cos \theta & \sin \theta \\-\sin \theta & \cos \theta\end{array}\right]^{-1}\left(\left[\begin{array}{l}x^{\prime} \\y^{\prime}\end{array}\right]+\left[\begin{array}{l}\Delta x \\\Delta y\end{array}\right]\right)$
通常情况下,由炮弹落点特征可知:假设目标瞄准点为A,则炮弹落点将围绕瞄准点A呈正态分布,且炮弹落点的X,Y坐标是相互独立的2个满足正态分布的随机变量。因此,假设炮弹落点坐标分别服从数学期望为μ,方差为δ的正态分布,则可建立如下方程[8]
$ f(x, y)=\frac{1}{2 \pi \delta^{2}} \exp \left(-\frac{(x-\mu)^{2}+(y-\mu)^{2}}{2 \delta^{2}}\right)$
式中f(x,y)为炮弹落点X,Y概率分布的概率密度函数。
导弹的圆概率误差是指以瞄准点为中心,包含50%弹着点的圆半径,可用CEP表示。当某型导弹的CEP一定时,则有
$ \iint_{\sqrt{x^{2}+y^{2}} \leqslant \text { CEP }} f(x, y) \mathrm{d} x \mathrm{~d} y=0.5$
δx=δy时,由式(7)和式(8)可求得:
$ \delta=\operatorname{CEP} \sqrt{\frac{1}{2 \ln 2}}$
炮弹落点服从以瞄准点坐标为数学期望μ,以δ为方差的正态分布。通过蒙特卡罗随机数生成器模拟生成炮弹落点坐标。
随机攻击策略是不针对特定瞄准点,而是随机在机场跑道区域范围内生成炮弹打击落点,随机攻击不具有主观策略性。随机攻击策略下炮弹落点如图5所示。
蓄意攻击条件下,攻击方将企图以最小的投入获得最大的收益,即以最小的成本实现最大的破坏效果。针对机场跑道这一关键基础设施,攻击策略应最大程度的减少满足应急起飞的最小起降带数量。因此,采用二分法策略确定目标瞄准点是比较适宜的做法。二分法策略是指在机场跑道区域范围内有策略的用瞄准点均匀分割跑道起降区域,直至剩余跑道起降区域不满足最小起降带要求。二分法策略下目标瞄准点选择如图6所示。
为对比分析二分法攻击策略与随机攻击策略的效果差异,设计对照试验。试验中,二分法策略通过逐步缩小最小起降带范围,精准定位关键瞄准点位置。而随机攻击作为对照组,模拟无特定策略的随机破坏行为。通过比较2种打击策略下机场跑道起降效能的变化情况,可量化分析出二分法打击策略优势,支撑合理选择目标瞄准点。
为验证评估模型的有效性,以我国沿海某机场跑道为案例进行仿真。机场跑道长度L=3 000m,宽度W=60m,参考IDF最小起降带参数要求,假设某同类型飞机的最小起降带要求同为长度l=800m,宽度w=20m。案例迭代步长ΔxΔyΔθ分别取50m、1m和1°,最小起降带总数达5 285条。假设蓄意攻击下采用常规武器进行机场封锁[14],同时考虑来自无人机的新兴威胁,相关武器性能参数指标见表2
蓄意攻击下机场跑道起降效能随武器打击数量变化曲线如图7所示,由图7可知:机场跑道起降效能在蓄意攻击时的易损性明显大于随机攻击。
在蓄意攻击背景下,当采用二分法策略封锁机场跑道时,随着武器打击数量从0增加到6,打击精度较高的大型无人机、巡航导弹和远程火箭炮和均能成功封锁机场,起降效能降至0,而打击精度稍低的榴弹炮则将机场跑道起降效能降至16.07%。
同时分析发现,在蓄意攻击策略下前3枚炮弹命中机场跑道后,跑道起降效能迅速下降,其中,无人机、巡航导弹和远程火箭炮分别使机场跑道起降效能从100%降低至28.00%、22.09%和32.02%,而后3枚炮弹命中时起降效能变化较少,但最终均降低至0。
原因是在初始打击条件下,机场跑道较长,跑道各区域间相对独立,前期由于单个弹坑对机场跑道起降效能的影响不受相邻弹坑的制约,所以当炮弹毁伤半径越大,打击精度越高时,机场跑道起降效能下降越快。而相对在跑道封锁后期,多数水平方向的最小起降带受到前期炮弹命中时产生弹坑的直接影响,残余的机场跑道起降效能有限,因此,后续用于机场跑道封锁的单枚炮弹使机场跑道起降效能下降不明显。要实现机场跑道完全封锁,通常需要分段逐步进行。
无论是采用大型无人机、巡航导弹还是远程火箭炮,得益于二分法打击策略的增益,当武器打击数量达到6枚时,均能实现机场跑道完全封锁。而相对的远程火箭炮打击成本更低,即便打击精度和毁伤半径稍逊于大型无人机和巡航导弹,但从打击效果来看,当目标在远程火箭炮打击范围内时,值得优先选用。
典型武器随机攻击下机场跑道起降效能曲线如图8所示,由图8可知:机场跑道起降效能曲线均随武器打击数量的增加而呈现前期下降快,后期下降慢的趋势。这主要是由于前期武器打击数量较少,任意2枚炮弹对同一最小起降带的相互影响较少。而后期随着打击数量的增加,将逐步出现多枚炮弹落在相邻位置的情况,导致出现封锁效果“重叠”的现象,这时对机场跑道的封锁作用有限,因此,后期机场跑道起降效能下降较慢。
分析发现,随机攻击策略下打击效果与武器毁伤半径呈正相关,但均难以有效封锁机场。按打击效果排序分别为巡航导弹、大型无人机、远程火箭炮和榴弹炮。
为探究不同武器打击精度对机场跑道易损性的影响,假设在圆概率偏差CEP分别为3、5和10m的条件下,对比分析蓄意攻击模式下4种典型武器打击机场跑道的效果,易损性曲线如图9所示。
当武器打击精度较高,即CEP=3m时,不同类型武器由于毁伤半径不同,主要影响机场跑道起降效能的下降速度,但基本不影响最终的封锁效果。当打击数量达6枚时,巡航导弹、大型无人机、远程火箭炮和榴弹炮分别将机场跑道起降效能降低至0%、0.03%、0.08%和1.57%。
当CEP=5m时,毁伤半径较大的巡航导弹和大型无人机分别将机场跑道起降效能降低至0.16%和0.56%。而对于毁伤半径较小的远程火箭炮和榴弹炮,同等条件下机场跑道起降效能只分别降低至1.03%和5.1%,难以快速有效封锁机场。原因在于武器圆概率偏差较大,毁伤半径较小,难以达成二分法攻击策略下的封锁目标。而当CEP=10m时,在6枚炮弹蓄意攻击下,巡航导弹、大型无人机、远程火箭炮和榴弹炮分别将机场跑道起降效能降低至3.30%、5.92%、7.72%和16.07%。说明当武器圆概率偏差较大时,毁伤半径对目标打击效果的影响作用有限,单纯依靠二分法封锁策略难以实现机场跑道快速封锁。此时可通过增加武器打击数量来达成预期目标。同等条件下,当打击数量增加至12枚时,毁伤半径较大的武器已能够实现跑道封锁。
上述结果表明:武器打击精度是影响机场跑道起降效能的关键因素。蓄意攻击时不同武器毁伤半径对机场跑道起降效能的影响受到打击精度的制约,毁伤半径的影响则随着打击精度的增大而减小。降低武器打击精度将有效提升机场跑道起降效能。
针对蓄意攻击下降低多类型武器对机场跑道打击精度的现实需求,可相应的采取综合防护措施。对于无人机携带的激光制导炸弹,可快速施放多波段烟幕干扰激光制导。针对巡航导弹的复合制导模式,采用全球定位系统(Global Positioning System,GPS)干扰和多波段烟幕干扰,分别干扰GPS信号和削弱末端制导的数字景象匹配效果。而远程火箭炮通常为惯性制导和GPS制导的组合,同样采用GPS干扰来降低武器打击精度。
为探究不同武器毁伤半径对机场跑道易损性的影响,假设在毁伤半径R分别为8、5和2m的条件下,对比分析蓄意攻击模式下4种典型武器打击机场跑道的效果,其易损性曲线如图10所示,由图10可知:在蓄意攻击下,当武器毁伤半径一定时,武器打击精度越高,机场跑道起降效能下降越快,完全封锁机场跑道所需的武器数量越少,但最低不小于6枚。若持续增加武器打击数量,机场跑道的起降效能呈现出不断下降至0的趋势。
当武器毁伤半径较大,即R=8m时,一旦打击数量达到6枚,巡航导弹、大型无人机、远程火箭炮和榴弹炮分别将机场跑道起降效能降低至0%、0%、0.16%和3.30%。同等条件下,当R=5m时,机场跑道起降效能降低为0%、0.08%、1.03%和7.72%。而当R=2m时,进一步降低为1.57%、0.45%、5.10%和16.07%。
结果表明:当武器毁伤半径较大时,不同武器打击精度对机场跑道起降效能的影响程度有限,其影响呈现出随着毁伤半径减小而增大的趋势。降低来袭武器毁伤半径将有效提升机场跑道起降效能。
在考虑防护时,为有效控制多类型武器对机场跑道毁伤半径大小,可根据需要有针对性的提高机场跑道混凝土强度等级,提升跑道韧性。
1) 基于机场跑道起降效能指标构建蓄意攻击下机场跑道易损性评估框架,其具有良好的有效性和适用性,可准确量化机场跑道起降效能。
2) 采用机场跑道起降效能下降比例作为易损性评估指标,武器打击数量、打击精度和毁伤半径是影响机场跑道起降效能的关键因素。武器打击精度越高,毁伤半径越大,机场跑道易损性越高。在考虑防护时,可通过采取多波段烟幕、GPS干扰等综合防护措施降低武器打击精度,或通过提高机场跑道混凝土强度等级控制武器毁伤半径。
3) 当采用打击精度较高的武器蓄意封锁机场跑道时,二分法策略下至少需要6枚弹才能有效封锁机场。面对蓄意攻击威胁时,应重点加强机场跑道关键区域的防护,以保障机场战时运行能力。
4) 研究重点在攻击方机场跑道的典型攻击策略和防御方的关键防御措施,未来可深入探讨攻防双方的策略博弈,为优化防护资源配置提供理论支持,以提高机场跑道的防御韧性,适应未来战场动态变化发展需求。
  • 国家自然科学基金资助(51708554)
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2026年第36卷第5期
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.05.0141
  • 接收时间:2026-01-14
  • 首发时间:2026-06-26
  • 出版时间:2026-05-28
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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-14
  • 修回日期:2026-03-20
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(51708554)
作者信息
    陆军工程大学 国防工程学院, 江苏 南京 210007

通讯作者:

** 龚华栋(1975—),男,浙江慈溪人,博士,教授,主要从事关键基础设施防护方面的研究。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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