Article(id=1281608122372440313, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608054340829934, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.2147, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1763049600000, receivedDateStr=2025-11-14, revisedDate=1769961600000, revisedDateStr=2026-02-02, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783488787500, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1777305600000, pubDateStr=2026-04-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783488787500, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783488787500, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783488787500, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281608054340829934, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2026', volume='36', issue='4', pageStart='1', pageEnd='286', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1777305600000', pubDateStr='2026-04-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783488771281, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783588648031, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282026967885124001, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608054340829934, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282026967885124002, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608054340829934, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=9, endPage=18, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281608122569572602, articleId=1281608122372440313, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Risk zoo (X): a binary interpretation framework and resilience construction regarding butterfly effect, columnId=1277328386947150682, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety Science Theories and Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To prevent the occurrence of the butterfly effect in risk management, and in response to the scientific need to enhance the effectiveness of resilience governance in the face of risk amplification, a binary explanation framework for the butterfly effect was constructed based on the duality of risk. This framework encompassed social and cascading amplification of risk, clarifying the social amplification mechanism and cascading transmission pattern of the butterfly effect. On this basis, human-centered resilience construction mechanism in response to the butterfly effect was further explored. The results show that the duality of risk emphasizes the dialectical unity between the objective reality of risk its social constructiveness. Meanwhile, based on this duality, the uncertainty arising from the butterfly effect can be deconstructed, rooted in the complexity of modern socio-technical systems and the ambiguity resulting from the social construction of risk. On the one hand, modern socio-technical risks are interlinked and interdependent, forming an intricate risk network that exhibits endogenous complexity and provides impetus for risk cascade amplification. On the other hand, constrained by risk knowledge, the public's risk perception and behavior are influenced by social, institutional, and cultural factors, among others, manifesting as social ambiguity that creates conditions for the social amplification of risk. The duality of risk necessitates the establishment of a human-centered resilience governance system, that focus on improving risk monitoring and early warning system, refining risk communication mechanism, and promoting multi-stakeholder participation in governance, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of resilience management against the butterfly effect.

, authors=Ruipeng Tong, Xiangyang Hu, Yuqing Ma, Le Xin, authorsList=Ruipeng Tong, Xiangyang Hu, Yuqing Ma, Le Xin, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281608122947059963, articleId=1281608122372440313, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=风险动物园（X）：蝴蝶效应的二元解释框架与韧性建构, columnId=1277328387270112092, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全科学理论与方法, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为防范风险管控中“蝴蝶效应”的发生，针对风险放大韧性治理效能提升的科学需求，基于风险二重性构建蝴蝶效应的“风险社会放大”与“风险级联放大”的二元解释框架，梳理蝴蝶效应的社会放大机制与级联传导特征，并探索以人为核心的蝴蝶效应韧性建构机制。结果表明：风险二重性强调风险客观实在性与社会建构性的辩证统一，解构蝴蝶效应产生的不确定性根源于现代社会-技术系统的复杂性与风险社会建构导致的模糊性。一方面，现代社会-技术风险相互关联、相互依存，形成错综复杂的风险网络，表现内生复杂性，为风险级联放大提供动力；另一方面，受限于知识的局限性，公众风险感知与行为受到社会、制度、文化多方面因素的影响，表现为社会模糊性，为风险社会放大提供条件。风险二重性要建立人本协同的韧性治理体系，以健全风险监测预警体系、完善风险沟通交流机制、推动多元主体参与治理为主要抓手，提升风险蝴蝶效应的韧性治理效能。

, authors=佟瑞鹏教授, 胡向阳, 马雨晴, 辛乐, authorsList=佟瑞鹏教授, 胡向阳, 马雨晴, 辛乐, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=GLooeUyTYxLpPVYwCAUPmQ==, magXml=a6LEs7u+pfpvT346cbJ+Qg==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=a9usT5DfMrYwv4XZADcfeQ==, pdfFileSize=5183267, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=SgJtkCIxyJVf7cJAxAsoWA==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1281608123374878976, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1281608122372440313, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=tongrp@cumtb.edu.cn, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1281608123479736578, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1281608122372440313, authorId=1281608123374878976, language=EN, stringName=Ruipeng Tong, firstName=Ruipeng, middleName=null, lastName=Tong, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1281608123551039747, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, articleId=1281608122372440313, authorId=1281608123374878976, language=CN, stringName=佟瑞鹏教授, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=中国矿业大学（北京） 应急管理与安全工程学院，北京 100083, bio={"content":"

佟瑞鹏（1977—），男，黑龙江穆棱人，博士，教授，主要从事行为安全管理、职业心理健康、环境风险评估等方面的研究。E-mail: tongrp@cumtb.edu.cn。

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佟瑞鹏（1977—），男，黑龙江穆棱人，博士，教授，主要从事行为安全管理、职业心理健康、环境风险评估等方面的研究。E-mail: tongrp@cumtb.edu.cn。

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