Article(id=1281608060242215699, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608054340829934, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.0454, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1762704000000, receivedDateStr=2025-11-10, revisedDate=1767974400000, revisedDateStr=2026-01-10, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783488772688, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1777305600000, pubDateStr=2026-04-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783488772688, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783488772688, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783488772688, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281608054340829934, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2026', volume='36', issue='4', pageStart='1', pageEnd='286', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1777305600000', pubDateStr='2026-04-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783488771281, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783588648031, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282026967885124001, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608054340829934, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282026967885124002, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608054340829934, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=57, endPage=64, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281608060451930900, articleId=1281608060242215699, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Risk assessment for overdue in-service pressure pipelines based on BOA-SAM-FTA, columnId=1277328386947150682, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety Science Theories and Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

To investigate the failure issues of overdue in-service pressure pipelines, this paper proposed a method based on integration of BOA and SAM for analyzing the failure probability of such pipelines, building upon the FTA framework. First, the causes of failure in overdue in-service pressure pipelines were analyzed, and a fault tree for failure was established. Then, experts were invited to evaluate the basic events of fault tree, and their opinions were aggregated using SAM method and an improved BOA-SAM approach. The accuracy of aggregation was assessed by comparing the uncertainty values of two methods (the lower the uncertainty value, the more precise the aggregation result). Finally, the failure probability of the top event was calculated, and an importance analysis was conducted. The results show that the uncertainty values of the aggregation results obtained using the improved BOA-SAM are significantly lower than those of SAM method. Notably, for the basic event X₆, the uncertainty value decreased by 7.6%. The failure probability of the top event is calculated to be 0.117 641. Stress corrosion cracking, third-party damage, weld cracking and excessive H₂S content in the medium are identified as the key factors contributing to the occurrence of accidents. This study provides a scientific and logical approach for risk assessment and failure analysis of overdue in-service pressure pipelines.

, authors=Huabin Tang¹, Lei Xu¹, Siyu Chen^{**, 2}, Songhua Ma³, authorsList=Huabin Tang, Lei Xu, Siyu Chen, Songhua Ma, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Siyu Chen, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281608061072687895, articleId=1281608060242215699, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=基于BOA-SAM-FTA的超期服役压力管道风险评估, columnId=1277328387270112092, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全科学理论与方法, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为预防超期服役压力管道失效，在故障树分析法（FTA）基础上，提出基于蝴蝶优化算法（BOA）与相似聚合法（SAM）相结合的方法，分析超期服役压力管道失效概率。首先，分析超期压力管道失效原因，建立失效故障树；然后，通过邀请专家评估故障树底事件，并通过SAM方法和改进BOA-SAM聚合专家意见，计算对比2种方法的不确定性值来评估聚合的准确性（不确定性值越小，聚合结果越精确）；最后，计算顶事件失效概率并进行重要度分析。结果表明：改进后的BOA-SAM方法所得聚合结果的不确定性值，均显著低于传统SAM方法，其中最明显的为底事件X₆，其不确定性值降低7.6%，顶事件的失效概率为0.117 641；应力腐蚀开裂、第三方破坏、焊缝开裂和介质中H₂S含量偏高等为事故发生的关键因素。

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唐华彬（2001—），男，四川内江人，硕士研究生，研究方向为承压设备风险评估。E-mail: thb1527566913@163.com。

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唐华彬（2001—），男，四川内江人，硕士研究生，研究方向为承压设备风险评估。E-mail: thb1527566913@163.com。

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