Article(id=1281608127921492337, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608117335068953, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1165, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1761148800000, receivedDateStr=2025-10-23, revisedDate=1767801600000, revisedDateStr=2026-01-08, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783488788824, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1774627200000, pubDateStr=2026-03-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783488788824, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783488788824, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783488788824, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281608117335068953, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2026', volume='36', issue='3', pageStart='1', pageEnd='270', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1774627200000', pubDateStr='2026-03-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783488786300, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783588670896, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282027063758533259, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608117335068953, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282027063758533260, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281608117335068953, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=49, endPage=57, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281608128114430322, articleId=1281608127921492337, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Study on dissemination and academic influence of 24Model, columnId=1277328386947150682, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety Science Theories and Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

The 24Model, as an original and systematic accident causation theory in China, has been widely applied in the field of safety science since 2005. However, a comprehensive review of its theoretical development and application trends is still lacking. A systematic search and stratified screening were conducted based on the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) framework. A scoping review approach was employed to perform structured coding and data extraction from the 357 screened Chinese- and English-language publications. Subsequently, data analyses, including cross-tabulation analysis and chi-square tests, were carried out. The results indicate that research on the 24Model has shown a sustained growth trend and has begun to disseminate globally. Its application domains have expanded from the coal mining industry to complex system industries such as the chemical sector. In addition, application paradigms have evolved from qualitative analysis to quantitative modeling, from post-accident analysis to proactive prevention, and from traditional analytical approaches to digital and intelligent technologies. The systematic model has been further developed and refined in the fifth and sixth editions, providing a new theoretical framework for safety analysis in complex systems. This study suggests that future research on the 24Model may continue to focus on deepening its systematic theoretical foundations, innovating preventive applications, and integrating digital and intelligent technologies.

, authors=Yuxuan LU1, Chun YANG2, Meng HAN1, Chenhui YUAN1, Jinkun ZHAO1, Xuecai XIE**, 3, authorsList=Yuxuan LU, Chun YANG, Meng HAN, Chenhui YUAN, Jinkun ZHAO, Xuecai XIE, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Xuecai XIE, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281608130186416501, articleId=1281608127921492337, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=事故致因“2-4”模型的传播与学术影响力研究, columnId=1277328387270112092, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全科学理论与方法, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)作为中国原创的系统性事故致因理论,自2005年以来,在国内安全领域得到广泛应用,但缺乏对其理论与应用趋势的综述研究。基于系统文献综述和元分析报告项目指南(PRISMA)框架,进行系统检索与分层筛选,采用范围性综述方法对筛选出的357篇中英文文献进行结构化编码与数据采集,并开展交叉分析及卡方检验等数据分析。结果表明:对24Model的研究呈现持续增长态势,并开始在世界范围内传播;应用领域从煤矿行业向化工等复杂系统行业拓展;应用模式实现从定性分析向定量建模、从事后分析向事前预防、从传统方法向数智化技术的转变;系统性模型在第5、6版中得到发展和完善,为复杂系统安全分析提供了新的理论框架,并建议24Model未来可在模型系统性理论深化、预防性应用创新、数智化技术融合等方向持续开展研究。

, authors=路禹轩1, 杨春2, 韩梦1, 袁晨辉1, 赵金坤1, 解学才**, 3, authorsList=路禹轩, 杨春, 韩梦, 袁晨辉, 赵金坤, 解学才, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=解学才, authorNote=

路禹轩(1997—),男,河北秦皇岛人,博士研究生,研究方向为事故致因理论及其数智化应用。E-mail:

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** 解学才(1989—),男,山东潍坊人,博士,讲师,主要从事事故致因理论研究。E-mail:
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路禹轩(1997—),男,河北秦皇岛人,博士研究生,研究方向为事故致因理论及其数智化应用。E-mail:

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路禹轩(1997—),男,河北秦皇岛人,博士研究生,研究方向为事故致因理论及其数智化应用。E-mail:

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事故致因“2-4”模型的传播与学术影响力研究
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路禹轩 1 , 杨春 2 , 韩梦 1 , 袁晨辉 1 , 赵金坤 1 , 解学才 **, 3
中国安全科学学报 | 安全科学理论与方法 2026,36(3): 49-57
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中国安全科学学报 |安全科学理论与方法 2026 , 36 (3) : 49 -57
事故致因“2-4”模型的传播与学术影响力研究
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路禹轩(1997—),男,河北秦皇岛人,博士研究生,研究方向为事故致因理论及其数智化应用。E-mail:

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路禹轩1 , 杨春2, 韩梦1, 袁晨辉1, 赵金坤1, 解学才**, 3
作者信息
  • 1中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院,北京 100083
  • 2华润电力技术研究院有限公司,广东 深圳 518001
  • 3中国地质大学(北京) 工程技术学院,北京 100083
通讯作者:
** 解学才(1989—),男,山东潍坊人,博士,讲师,主要从事事故致因理论研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

路禹轩(1997—),男,河北秦皇岛人,博士研究生,研究方向为事故致因理论及其数智化应用。E-mail:

Study on dissemination and academic influence of 24Model
Yuxuan LU1 , Chun YANG2, Meng HAN1, Chenhui YUAN1, Jinkun ZHAO1, Xuecai XIE**, 3
Affiliations
  • 1School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
  • 2China Resources Power Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Guangdong 518001, China
  • 3School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
出版时间: 2026-03-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1165
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事故致因“2-4”模型(24Model)作为中国原创的系统性事故致因理论,自2005年以来,在国内安全领域得到广泛应用,但缺乏对其理论与应用趋势的综述研究。基于系统文献综述和元分析报告项目指南(PRISMA)框架,进行系统检索与分层筛选,采用范围性综述方法对筛选出的357篇中英文文献进行结构化编码与数据采集,并开展交叉分析及卡方检验等数据分析。结果表明:对24Model的研究呈现持续增长态势,并开始在世界范围内传播;应用领域从煤矿行业向化工等复杂系统行业拓展;应用模式实现从定性分析向定量建模、从事后分析向事前预防、从传统方法向数智化技术的转变;系统性模型在第5、6版中得到发展和完善,为复杂系统安全分析提供了新的理论框架,并建议24Model未来可在模型系统性理论深化、预防性应用创新、数智化技术融合等方向持续开展研究。

事故致因  /  “2-4”模型(24Model)  /  事故分析  /  数智化应用  /  风险辨识

The 24Model, as an original and systematic accident causation theory in China, has been widely applied in the field of safety science since 2005. However, a comprehensive review of its theoretical development and application trends is still lacking. A systematic search and stratified screening were conducted based on the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) framework. A scoping review approach was employed to perform structured coding and data extraction from the 357 screened Chinese- and English-language publications. Subsequently, data analyses, including cross-tabulation analysis and chi-square tests, were carried out. The results indicate that research on the 24Model has shown a sustained growth trend and has begun to disseminate globally. Its application domains have expanded from the coal mining industry to complex system industries such as the chemical sector. In addition, application paradigms have evolved from qualitative analysis to quantitative modeling, from post-accident analysis to proactive prevention, and from traditional analytical approaches to digital and intelligent technologies. The systematic model has been further developed and refined in the fifth and sixth editions, providing a new theoretical framework for safety analysis in complex systems. This study suggests that future research on the 24Model may continue to focus on deepening its systematic theoretical foundations, innovating preventive applications, and integrating digital and intelligent technologies.

accident causation  /  "2-4"model(24Model)  /  accident analysis  /  digital and intelligent applications  /  risk identification
路禹轩, 杨春, 韩梦, 袁晨辉, 赵金坤, 解学才. 事故致因“2-4”模型的传播与学术影响力研究. 中国安全科学学报, 2026 , 36 (3) : 49 -57 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1165
Yuxuan LU, Chun YANG, Meng HAN, Chenhui YUAN, Jinkun ZHAO, Xuecai XIE. Study on dissemination and academic influence of 24Model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (3) : 49 -57 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1165
  • 国家自然科学基金资助(72204139)
  • 广西壮族自治区重点研发计划(桂科AB23026055)
  • 山西汾西矿业集团水峪煤业有限责任公司科技项目(SJZBFX03020024F201V38)
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1165
  • 接收时间:2025-10-23
  • 首发时间:2026-07-08
  • 出版时间:2026-03-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-23
  • 修回日期:2026-01-08
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(72204139)
广西壮族自治区重点研发计划(桂科AB23026055)
山西汾西矿业集团水峪煤业有限责任公司科技项目(SJZBFX03020024F201V38)
作者信息
    1中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院,北京 100083
    2华润电力技术研究院有限公司,广东 深圳 518001
    3中国地质大学(北京) 工程技术学院,北京 100083

通讯作者:

** 解学才(1989—),男,山东潍坊人,博士,讲师,主要从事事故致因理论研究。E-mail:
参考文献
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgaqkxxb/CN/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.03.1165
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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