Article(id=1281627175661056192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281627156769903305, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.1196, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1757001600000, receivedDateStr=2025-09-05, revisedDate=1763740800000, revisedDateStr=2025-11-22, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783493330158, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1769529600000, pubDateStr=2026-01-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783493330158, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783493330158, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783493330158, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281627156769903305, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2026', volume='36', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='280', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1769529600000', pubDateStr='2026-01-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783493325654, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783588714348, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282027246013624992, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281627156769903305, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282027246013624993, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281627156769903305, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=130, endPage=137, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281627177485578433, articleId=1281627175661056192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Study on prediction of temperature characteristic parameters for subway train with multiple lateral openings and tnnnels, columnId=1277328337617941059, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Safety Technology and Engineering, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Existing methods for predicting temperature from subway carriage and tunnel fires mainly rely on physical models and empirical methods that are valid only under narrowly-defined environmental conditions. To solve this issue, this study adopts an artificial-intelligence-based approach. A GA-BPNN network model is constructed by optimizing BPNN using a GA. The GA is employed to global optimize BPNN's weights and thresholds, after which the model is trained to predict the temperature distribution of both the subway carriage and the tunnel, thereby achieving intelligent inversion of the fire temperature field. The results show that, for subway carriage temperature prediction, GA-BPNN model yields a mean absolute error (MAE) of 8.17, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.76, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. For tunnel temperature prediction, MAE is 3.95, RMSE is 5.63, and R2 reaches 0.98. By comparing the results with those of the traditional BPNN, it is found that the GA-BPNN model outperforms the conventional BPNN in both prediction accuracy and generalization capability.

, authors=Zhenkun WU1, 2, Min PENG**, 2, Guoqing ZHU2, Lu LIU2, Dongzi QIN3, authorsList=Zhenkun WU, Min PENG, Guoqing ZHU, Lu LIU, Dongzi QIN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Min PENG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281627178110529732, articleId=1281627175661056192, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=侧向多开口地铁列车和隧道温度特征参数预测, columnId=1277328337940902469, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=安全技术与工程, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为解决现有地铁列车和隧道火灾预测方法大多依赖于物理模型和经验公式而导致预测精度不足的问题,从人工智能角度出发,基于遗传算法(GA)优化反向传神经网络(BPNN),构建GA-BPNN网络模型;利用GA对BPNN的权重和阈值进行全局寻优;训练与预测车厢与隧道顶棚温度分布,智能反演火灾温度场。结果表明:GA-BPNN模型对车厢温度预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)为8.17,均方根误差(RMSE)为9.76,决定系数R2为0.99;隧道温度预测的MAE为3.95,RMSE为5.63,R2为0.98。通过对比发现,GA-BPNN模型在准确性和泛化能力上都优于传统BPNN模型。

, authors=吴振坤讲师1, 2, 彭敏副教授**, 2, 朱国庆教授2, 刘璐2, 秦东子3, authorsList=吴振坤讲师, 彭敏副教授, 朱国庆教授, 刘璐, 秦东子, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=彭敏副教授, authorNote=

吴振坤(1990—),男,甘肃张掖人,博士,讲师,主要从事轨道交通火灾防控及监测预警等方面的研究。E-mail:

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** 彭敏(1995—),女,安徽宿州人,博士,副教授,主要从事城市轨道火灾安全研究。E-mail:
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吴振坤(1990—),男,甘肃张掖人,博士,讲师,主要从事轨道交通火灾防控及监测预警等方面的研究。E-mail:

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吴振坤(1990—),男,甘肃张掖人,博士,讲师,主要从事轨道交通火灾防控及监测预警等方面的研究。E-mail:

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侧向多开口地铁列车和隧道温度特征参数预测
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吴振坤讲师 1, 2 , 彭敏副教授 **, 2 , 朱国庆教授 2 , 刘璐 2 , 秦东子 3
中国安全科学学报 | 安全技术与工程 2026,36(1): 130-137
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中国安全科学学报 |安全技术与工程 2026 , 36 (1) : 130 -137
侧向多开口地铁列车和隧道温度特征参数预测
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吴振坤(1990—),男,甘肃张掖人,博士,讲师,主要从事轨道交通火灾防控及监测预警等方面的研究。E-mail:

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吴振坤(1990—),男,甘肃张掖人,博士,讲师,主要从事轨道交通火灾防控及监测预警等方面的研究。E-mail:

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吴振坤讲师1, 2 , 彭敏副教授**, 2 , 朱国庆教授2, 刘璐2, 秦东子3
作者信息
  • 1无锡学院 应急管理学院,江苏 无锡 214105
  • 2中国矿业大学 安全工程学院,江苏 徐州 221116
  • 3中国科学技术大学 火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽 合肥 230026
通讯作者:
** 彭敏(1995—),女,安徽宿州人,博士,副教授,主要从事城市轨道火灾安全研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

吴振坤(1990—),男,甘肃张掖人,博士,讲师,主要从事轨道交通火灾防控及监测预警等方面的研究。E-mail:

Study on prediction of temperature characteristic parameters for subway train with multiple lateral openings and tnnnels
Zhenkun WU1, 2 , Min PENG**, 2 , Guoqing ZHU2, Lu LIU2, Dongzi QIN3
Affiliations
  • 1School of Emergency Management, Wuxi University, Wuxi Jiangsu 214105, China
  • 2School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116, China
  • 3State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei Anhui 230026, China
出版时间: 2026-01-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.1196
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为解决现有地铁列车和隧道火灾预测方法大多依赖于物理模型和经验公式而导致预测精度不足的问题,从人工智能角度出发,基于遗传算法(GA)优化反向传神经网络(BPNN),构建GA-BPNN网络模型;利用GA对BPNN的权重和阈值进行全局寻优;训练与预测车厢与隧道顶棚温度分布,智能反演火灾温度场。结果表明:GA-BPNN模型对车厢温度预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)为8.17,均方根误差(RMSE)为9.76,决定系数R2为0.99;隧道温度预测的MAE为3.95,RMSE为5.63,R2为0.98。通过对比发现,GA-BPNN模型在准确性和泛化能力上都优于传统BPNN模型。

侧向多开口  /  地铁列车  /  温度预测  /  特征参数  /  反向传播神经网络(BPNN)  /  遗传算法(GA)

Existing methods for predicting temperature from subway carriage and tunnel fires mainly rely on physical models and empirical methods that are valid only under narrowly-defined environmental conditions. To solve this issue, this study adopts an artificial-intelligence-based approach. A GA-BPNN network model is constructed by optimizing BPNN using a GA. The GA is employed to global optimize BPNN's weights and thresholds, after which the model is trained to predict the temperature distribution of both the subway carriage and the tunnel, thereby achieving intelligent inversion of the fire temperature field. The results show that, for subway carriage temperature prediction, GA-BPNN model yields a mean absolute error (MAE) of 8.17, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.76, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. For tunnel temperature prediction, MAE is 3.95, RMSE is 5.63, and R2 reaches 0.98. By comparing the results with those of the traditional BPNN, it is found that the GA-BPNN model outperforms the conventional BPNN in both prediction accuracy and generalization capability.

multiple lateral openings  /  subway train  /  temperature prediction  /  characteristic parameters  /  back-propagation neural network(BPNN)  /  genetic algorithm(GA)
吴振坤讲师, 彭敏副教授, 朱国庆教授, 刘璐, 秦东子. 侧向多开口地铁列车和隧道温度特征参数预测. 中国安全科学学报, 2026 , 36 (1) : 130 -137 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.1196
Zhenkun WU, Min PENG, Guoqing ZHU, Lu LIU, Dongzi QIN. Study on prediction of temperature characteristic parameters for subway train with multiple lateral openings and tnnnels[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (1) : 130 -137 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.1196
  • 国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3009900)
  • 国家自然科学基金资助(52574289; 52204254)
  • 江苏省自然科学基金资助(BK20221124)
  • 公共火灾防治技术四川省高等学校重点实验室开放基金资助(SC_KLPFPCT2024Z02)
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.1196
  • 接收时间:2025-09-05
  • 首发时间:2026-07-08
  • 出版时间:2026-01-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-05
  • 修回日期:2025-11-22
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3009900)
国家自然科学基金资助(52574289; 52204254)
江苏省自然科学基金资助(BK20221124)
公共火灾防治技术四川省高等学校重点实验室开放基金资助(SC_KLPFPCT2024Z02)
作者信息
    1无锡学院 应急管理学院,江苏 无锡 214105
    2中国矿业大学 安全工程学院,江苏 徐州 221116
    3中国科学技术大学 火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽 合肥 230026

通讯作者:

** 彭敏(1995—),女,安徽宿州人,博士,副教授,主要从事城市轨道火灾安全研究。E-mail:
参考文献
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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