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To develop reasonable emergency material allocation plans for flood disasters, prospect theory was used to characterize the risk perception levels of decision-makers. The reference points for the risk perception of "disaster relief center-disaster site" two-tier decision-makers were defined. A simulation model was constructed using system dynamics to examine the impact of decision-makers' risk perception on the allocation of emergency supplies for flood disasters. The model's validity was verified with case study of 2023 Zhuozhou flood. The study revealed that satisfaction rate at disaster sites and degree of supply-demand imbalance were influenced by risk perception levels of two-tier decision-makers, with a curve representing these effects. The findings show that the risk perception levels of decision-makers at both disaster sites and relief centers have a marginal increasing effect on the disaster site satisfaction rate and supply-demand imbalance. Additionally, under different levels of material availability, the difference in satisfaction rates at disaster sites becomes smaller as decision-makers' risk perception becomes more pessimistic.

, authors=Yi LU1, Yuanwang SHANG2, Yuhang WANG2, Danfeng YUE2, authorsList=Yi LU, Yuanwang SHANG, Yuhang WANG, Danfeng YUE, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281627179083600780, articleId=1281627178378957704, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响, columnId=1277328338280645463, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=公共安全与应急管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为合理制定洪涝灾害应急物资调配方案,利用前景理论刻画决策者风险感知程度,界定“救灾中心-灾点”2层决策者风险感知参考点;采用系统动力学(SD)方法构建决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配影响的仿真模型;以2023年涿州洪灾为例,验证模型的有效性,揭示灾点满足率和供需不平衡程度受“救灾中心-灾点”决策者风险感知水平的影响机制;阐明决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响机制。研究结果表明:灾点和救灾中心的决策者风险感知水平对灾点满足率和供需不平衡程度呈现边际递增效应;不同物资丰富程度下灾点的满足率差异会随着决策者风险感知水平趋向于悲观而缩小。

, authors=卢毅教授1, 尚远望2, 王宇航2, 岳丹凤2, authorsList=卢毅教授, 尚远望, 王宇航, 岳丹凤, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

卢毅(1983—),男,湖北孝感人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事综合减灾与应急管理方面的研究。E-mail:

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卢毅(1983—),男,湖北孝感人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事综合减灾与应急管理方面的研究。E-mail:

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卢毅(1983—),男,湖北孝感人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事综合减灾与应急管理方面的研究。E-mail:

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决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响
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卢毅教授 1 , 尚远望 2 , 王宇航 2 , 岳丹凤 2
中国安全科学学报 | 公共安全与应急管理 2026,36(1): 182-190
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中国安全科学学报 |公共安全与应急管理 2026 , 36 (1) : 182 -190
决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响
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卢毅教授1 , 尚远望2, 王宇航2, 岳丹凤2
作者信息
  • 1四川大学 灾后重建与管理学院,四川 成都 610207
  • 2四川大学 商学院,四川 成都 610065
作者简介:

卢毅(1983—),男,湖北孝感人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事综合减灾与应急管理方面的研究。E-mail:

Impact of decision-makers' risk perception on emergency material allocation in flood disasters
Yi LU1 , Yuanwang SHANG2, Yuhang WANG2, Danfeng YUE2
Affiliations
  • 1Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University, Chengdu Sichuan 610207, China
  • 2Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu Sichuan 610065, China
出版时间: 2026-01-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0536
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为合理制定洪涝灾害应急物资调配方案,利用前景理论刻画决策者风险感知程度,界定“救灾中心-灾点”2层决策者风险感知参考点;采用系统动力学(SD)方法构建决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配影响的仿真模型;以2023年涿州洪灾为例,验证模型的有效性,揭示灾点满足率和供需不平衡程度受“救灾中心-灾点”决策者风险感知水平的影响机制;阐明决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响机制。研究结果表明:灾点和救灾中心的决策者风险感知水平对灾点满足率和供需不平衡程度呈现边际递增效应;不同物资丰富程度下灾点的满足率差异会随着决策者风险感知水平趋向于悲观而缩小。

决策者  /  风险感知  /  洪涝灾害  /  应急物资调配  /  系统动力学(SD)  /  前景理论

To develop reasonable emergency material allocation plans for flood disasters, prospect theory was used to characterize the risk perception levels of decision-makers. The reference points for the risk perception of "disaster relief center-disaster site" two-tier decision-makers were defined. A simulation model was constructed using system dynamics to examine the impact of decision-makers' risk perception on the allocation of emergency supplies for flood disasters. The model's validity was verified with case study of 2023 Zhuozhou flood. The study revealed that satisfaction rate at disaster sites and degree of supply-demand imbalance were influenced by risk perception levels of two-tier decision-makers, with a curve representing these effects. The findings show that the risk perception levels of decision-makers at both disaster sites and relief centers have a marginal increasing effect on the disaster site satisfaction rate and supply-demand imbalance. Additionally, under different levels of material availability, the difference in satisfaction rates at disaster sites becomes smaller as decision-makers' risk perception becomes more pessimistic.

decision-maker  /  risk perception  /  flood disaster  /  emergency material allocation  /  system dynamics (SD)  /  prospect theory
卢毅教授, 尚远望, 王宇航, 岳丹凤. 决策者风险感知对洪涝灾害应急物资调配的影响. 中国安全科学学报, 2026 , 36 (1) : 182 -190 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0536
Yi LU, Yuanwang SHANG, Yuhang WANG, Danfeng YUE. Impact of decision-makers' risk perception on emergency material allocation in flood disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (1) : 182 -190 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0536
  • 国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(72274131)
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0536
  • 接收时间:2025-08-10
  • 首发时间:2026-07-08
  • 出版时间:2026-01-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-10
  • 修回日期:2025-11-10
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国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(72274131)
作者信息
    1四川大学 灾后重建与管理学院,四川 成都 610207
    2四川大学 商学院,四川 成都 610065
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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