Article(id=1281627196582244692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281627156769903305, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1754841600000, receivedDateStr=2025-08-11, revisedDate=1762617600000, revisedDateStr=2025-11-09, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1783493335146, onlineDateStr=2026-07-08, pubDate=1769529600000, pubDateStr=2026-01-28, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1783493335146, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-07-08, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1783493335146, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1783493335146, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1281627156769903305, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, year='2026', volume='36', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='280', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1769529600000', pubDateStr='2026-01-28', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1783493325654, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1783588714348, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1282027246013624992, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281627156769903305, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1282027246013624993, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, issueId=1281627156769903305, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=227, endPage=233, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1281627196779376981, articleId=1281627196582244692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=EN, title=Intelligent deductive for disaster evolution process under multi-disasters coupling, columnId=1278415493535076803, journalTitle=China Safety Science Journal, columnName=Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Technology and Engineering, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

In order to effectively predict disasters and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures, a multi-disaster coupling evolution intelligent deduction method was proposed. The disaster process, multi-disaster coupling, as well as the advantages and difficulties of evolutionary intelligent deduction, were discussed. The disaster evolution process was described, and an intelligent deduction method was established. Taking the mining process of an open-pit mine as an example, the proposed method was applied for analysis, and its effectiveness was verified. The results show that the multi-disaster coupling process is complex and changeable, with characteristics such as uncertainty, network structure effect and spatio-temporal distribution difference. The system fault evolution theory can provide support for the multi-disaster coupling evolution intelligent deduction from the perspectives of conceptual description, topological structure and mathematical analysis. The evolutionary intelligent deduction method is established, and its steps and mathematical model are provided. This method can qualitatively and quantitatively deduce the multi-disaster coupling evolution process, discover hidden disaster processes and generate emergent knowledge.

, authors=Shasha LI1, 2, Tiejun CUI**, 1, Jing ZHANG2, 3, authorsList=Shasha LI, Tiejun CUI, Jing ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Tiejun CUI, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1281627197093949782, articleId=1281627196582244692, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1146031787341344770, language=CN, title=多灾害耦合下灾害演化过程智能推演, columnId=1149735802885817075, journalTitle=中国安全科学学报, columnName=防灾减灾技术与工程, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

为有效预测灾害及评估干预措施效果,提出多灾害耦合演化智能推演方法,论述灾害过程与多灾害耦合、演化智能推演的优点和困难,描述灾害演化过程,提出智能推演方法,并以露天矿采掘过程为例,应用所提方法进行分析,验证其有效性。结果表明:多灾害耦合过程复杂多变,具有不确定、网络结构效应和时空分布差异等特征;系统故障演化理论能从概念描述、拓扑结构和数学分析角度为多灾害耦合演化智能推演提供支持;建立演化智能推演方法,给出步骤和数学模型,其能定性定量地推演多灾害耦合演化过程,发现隐藏灾害过程并涌现知识。

, authors=李莎莎副教授1, 2, 崔铁军教授**, 1, 张晶2, 3, authorsList=李莎莎副教授, 崔铁军教授, 张晶, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=崔铁军教授, authorNote=

李莎莎(1988—),女,辽宁盘锦人,博士,副教授,主要从事系统安全与安全管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

, correspAuthorsNote=
** 崔铁军(1983—),男,辽宁沈阳人,博士,教授,主要从事系统可靠性及系统故障演化理论方面的研究。E-mail:
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李莎莎(1988—),女,辽宁盘锦人,博士,副教授,主要从事系统安全与安全管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

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李莎莎(1988—),女,辽宁盘锦人,博士,副教授,主要从事系统安全与安全管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

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多灾害耦合下灾害演化过程智能推演
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李莎莎副教授 1, 2 , 崔铁军教授 **, 1 , 张晶 2, 3
中国安全科学学报 | 防灾减灾技术与工程 2026,36(1): 227-233
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中国安全科学学报 |防灾减灾技术与工程 2026 , 36 (1) : 227 -233
多灾害耦合下灾害演化过程智能推演
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李莎莎副教授1, 2 , 崔铁军教授**, 1 , 张晶2, 3
作者信息
  • 1沈阳理工大学 环境与化学工程学院,辽宁 沈阳 110159
  • 2清华大学 安全科学学院,北京 100084
  • 3应急管理部 灾害事故调查评估应急管理部重点实验室,北京 100084
通讯作者:
** 崔铁军(1983—),男,辽宁沈阳人,博士,教授,主要从事系统可靠性及系统故障演化理论方面的研究。E-mail:
作者简介:

李莎莎(1988—),女,辽宁盘锦人,博士,副教授,主要从事系统安全与安全管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

Intelligent deductive for disaster evolution process under multi-disasters coupling
Shasha LI1, 2 , Tiejun CUI**, 1 , Jing ZHANG2, 3
Affiliations
  • 1School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Shenyang Ligong University, Shenyang Liaoning 110159, China
  • 2School of Safety Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • 3Key Laboratory of Investigation on Disaster and Accident, Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing 100084, China
出版时间: 2026-01-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370
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为有效预测灾害及评估干预措施效果,提出多灾害耦合演化智能推演方法,论述灾害过程与多灾害耦合、演化智能推演的优点和困难,描述灾害演化过程,提出智能推演方法,并以露天矿采掘过程为例,应用所提方法进行分析,验证其有效性。结果表明:多灾害耦合过程复杂多变,具有不确定、网络结构效应和时空分布差异等特征;系统故障演化理论能从概念描述、拓扑结构和数学分析角度为多灾害耦合演化智能推演提供支持;建立演化智能推演方法,给出步骤和数学模型,其能定性定量地推演多灾害耦合演化过程,发现隐藏灾害过程并涌现知识。

多灾害耦合  /  演化过程  /  网络结构  /  智能推演  /  系统故障演化理论

In order to effectively predict disasters and evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures, a multi-disaster coupling evolution intelligent deduction method was proposed. The disaster process, multi-disaster coupling, as well as the advantages and difficulties of evolutionary intelligent deduction, were discussed. The disaster evolution process was described, and an intelligent deduction method was established. Taking the mining process of an open-pit mine as an example, the proposed method was applied for analysis, and its effectiveness was verified. The results show that the multi-disaster coupling process is complex and changeable, with characteristics such as uncertainty, network structure effect and spatio-temporal distribution difference. The system fault evolution theory can provide support for the multi-disaster coupling evolution intelligent deduction from the perspectives of conceptual description, topological structure and mathematical analysis. The evolutionary intelligent deduction method is established, and its steps and mathematical model are provided. This method can qualitatively and quantitatively deduce the multi-disaster coupling evolution process, discover hidden disaster processes and generate emergent knowledge.

multi-disaster coupling  /  evolution process  /  network structure  /  intelligent inference  /  system fault evolution theory
李莎莎副教授, 崔铁军教授, 张晶. 多灾害耦合下灾害演化过程智能推演. 中国安全科学学报, 2026 , 36 (1) : 227 -233 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370
Shasha LI, Tiejun CUI, Jing ZHANG. Intelligent deductive for disaster evolution process under multi-disasters coupling[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026 , 36 (1) : 227 -233 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370
  • 国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3016800)
  • 辽宁省属本科高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(LJ212410144051; LJ212410144032)
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370
  • 接收时间:2025-08-11
  • 首发时间:2026-07-08
  • 出版时间:2026-01-28
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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-11
  • 修回日期:2025-11-09
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3016800)
辽宁省属本科高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(LJ212410144051; LJ212410144032)
作者信息
    1沈阳理工大学 环境与化学工程学院,辽宁 沈阳 110159
    2清华大学 安全科学学院,北京 100084
    3应急管理部 灾害事故调查评估应急管理部重点实验室,北京 100084

通讯作者:

** 崔铁军(1983—),男,辽宁沈阳人,博士,教授,主要从事系统可靠性及系统故障演化理论方面的研究。E-mail:
参考文献
分享链接
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgaqkxxb/CN/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0370
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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